The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[Canoerebel]

"You da man!"  I like how you take in all the advice, sift through it, accept some and reject others, but then trust to your instincts.  I know you've proven me wrong quite a few times, so I defer to your judgment.  Go get 'em!

[beppi]

The reatreat in India is very very strange. No gains for Reader from my POV. He just could have fought a classical delay fight, he has the troops to substanial delay any allied advance. How is the VP ratio right now ? Might it be possible, at least it was my first thought, that reader wants to avoid a auto victory in 1945 ? I have to admit that i did it sometimes too, to not exploit a strategic mistake of my opponent, just to extend the game and to enjoy it longer. It just seems so strange, he did not even test you combat strength.

[CaptBeefheart]

Beppi: Greyjoy mentioned once that they are both disregarding auto-vic. I think Rader is more interested in doing better than real life.

I too am puzzled by Rader's movements, but then again I was earlier as well when he crossed the LOD. The guy may be a genius for all we know. The Moose stumbled onto Rader's brilliant pilot-sacrifice HI-saving scheme.

Anyway, I can't say enough about this AAR. I am as impressed with Greyjoy's irrepressible good nature as I am with his frequent malapropisms, not to mention his ability to forge his own path while receiving a sea of advice.

Cheers,
CC

[obvert]

Whether Rader is a genius or not remains to be seen. He does have very distinct ideas about the mechanisms of the game and how to use them, and he does want not only to do better than real life as the Japanese, but in my opinion he wants to WIN. I think this might be defined for him as still fighting hard by the end date in 46.

Look at his AAR Taming the Bear about his game with Jzanes. For views on bombing look at the several threads started recently by him on 4Es hitting troops. He is in mid-45 and frustrated by the way Jzanes is defeating his best laid plans with very historically possible (if politically questionable) 4E bombing. Not upset at Jzanes, just at the fact that he feels there is nothing he can do to combat the strength of the combined Russian and US advance using 4E as the main softening weapon. According to Jzanes he also is moving back forces from the DEI to rear positions to try and stall into 46.

In that game he is also by most standards doing incredibly well. He mentions at one point early on that he cares nothing about auto-victory, and that his invasion of Russia was simply for trying to survive longer in the late war.

In this game he will use all of what he is learning there about the situation in 45 to improve on his position (one of the reasons why I think it will be difficult for GJ to attack on the same axis into the DEI as was used by Jzanes). This is what is happening in India. He is choosing a position before GJ forces him into one. He will most likely stay out of the clear at all costs. He will also probably learn a lot about defending massed 4E attack on the HI in the next months there and begin to apply that to the game with GJ.

[USSAmerica]

Hmmm..... with the evacuation of Japanese troops in India, the waters of the Bay of Bengal and off Malaya might be very good hunting grounds for Allied subs...

[Powloon]

Firstly I've just spent a week reading this AAR (not really helped my productivity at work!) and just wanted chime in to say congratulations on toughing this one out! It has been a great read and vastly helped me take my own newbish footprints into the grand campaign.

I was wondering if you are able to decouple you carriers from the Solomans? As I imagine if you can get them into the Indian Ocean at the moment you would play merry hell. I'm guessing from the time of the game and the trashing you have done of KBs air groups even if you did bump into KB which might be sheperding his convoys out of India you would stand a good chance of coming out victorious.

Obviously feel free to ignore as it looks like your not lacking advice from eminently more experienced players.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: beppi

The reatreat in India is very very strange. No gains for Reader from my POV. He just could have fought a classical delay fight, he has the troops to substanial delay any allied advance. How is the VP ratio right now ? Might it be possible, at least it was my first thought, that reader wants to avoid a auto victory in 1945 ? I have to admit that i did it sometimes too, to not exploit a strategic mistake of my opponent, just to extend the game and to enjoy it longer. It just seems so strange, he did not even test you combat strength.

I agree with Obvert here Beppi. Rader doesn't look at the game score. We're now something like 1,5 to 1 in favour of Japan... but we agreed never to look at the autovictory so...i don't think his moves are related with the auto victory thing.
It's very likely that the experiences he's having in his other game are driving him to the conclusion that in 1945 the allies can steamroll japan no matter how strong the position is...so he's probably retreating to a more convinient line in Burma where the terrain would offer him more protection against my 4Es... he's mistaken, imho, cause in this game i was never able to do what Jzanes has done to him with 4Es...also because Rader has already learnt from that game the real key-secret against 4Es: create a nest of mutual supporting AFs...the 4Es won't be able to suppress them all at the same time...and the mutual supporting CAP will simply make any 4Es adventure too expensive for the allies

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Beppi: Greyjoy mentioned once that they are both disregarding auto-vic. I think Rader is more interested in doing better than real life.

I too am puzzled by Rader's movements, but then again I was earlier as well when he crossed the LOD. The guy may be a genius for all we know. The Moose stumbled onto Rader's brilliant pilot-sacrifice HI-saving scheme.

Anyway, I can't say enough about this AAR. I am as impressed with Greyjoy's irrepressible good nature as I am with his frequent malapropisms, not to mention his ability to forge his own path while receiving a sea of advice.

Cheers,
CC

Thanks Commander Cody...i'm trying to make my own path, yes, but my own path is also created by the priceless advices you're all giving me...my role here is something more like elaborating different advices, suggestions and analysis and come up with a unite syntethyzed (sp?!) strategy...which is a damned difficoult task! [:)]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Whether Rader is a genius or not remains to be seen. He does have very distinct ideas about the mechanisms of the game and how to use them, and he does want not only to do better than real life as the Japanese, but in my opinion he wants to WIN. I think this might be defined for him as still fighting hard by the end date in 46.

Look at his AAR Taming the Bear about his game with Jzanes. For views on bombing look at the several threads started recently by him on 4Es hitting troops. He is in mid-45 and frustrated by the way Jzanes is defeating his best laid plans with very historically possible (if politically questionable) 4E bombing. Not upset at Jzanes, just at the fact that he feels there is nothing he can do to combat the strength of the combined Russian and US advance using 4E as the main softening weapon. According to Jzanes he also is moving back forces from the DEI to rear positions to try and stall into 46.

In that game he is also by most standards doing incredibly well. He mentions at one point early on that he cares nothing about auto-victory, and that his invasion of Russia was simply for trying to survive longer in the late war.

In this game he will use all of what he is learning there about the situation in 45 to improve on his position (one of the reasons why I think it will be difficult for GJ to attack on the same axis into the DEI as was used by Jzanes). This is what is happening in India. He is choosing a position before GJ forces him into one. He will most likely stay out of the clear at all costs. He will also probably learn a lot about defending massed 4E attack on the HI in the next months there and begin to apply that to the game with GJ.

Unfortunately i agree with you at 100%...except for the fact that DEI isn't my best option... i know the opposition will be stiff, but the idea is to implement a double hook (differently than what Jzanes did)...advance through the solomons and through western NG...in order to force him to evacuate central NG...and use the NG as the axis of the advance of these two hooks...

In my plan (dream?) once i have "re-open" the Northern Oz front, everything will come up more easily...he will be forced to committ more forces here and so i'll have more chances in the Solomons...where i will have to advance to Buka...once Buka is taken, everything should become faster...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: USS America

Hmmm..... with the evacuation of Japanese troops in India, the waters of the Bay of Bengal and off Malaya might be very good hunting grounds for Allied subs...

That's my bet too! I already have 27 subs in place in the Bengal Bay...no contact yet[&:]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Powloon

Firstly I've just spent a week reading this AAR (not really helped my productivity at work!) and just wanted chime in to say congratulations on toughing this one out! It has been a great read and vastly helped me take my own newbish footprints into the grand campaign.

I was wondering if you are able to decouple you carriers from the Solomans? As I imagine if you can get them into the Indian Ocean at the moment you would play merry hell. I'm guessing from the time of the game and the trashing you have done of KBs air groups even if you did bump into KB which might be sheperding his convoys out of India you would stand a good chance of coming out victorious.

Obviously feel free to ignore as it looks like your not lacking advice from eminently more experienced players.

Hi mate and very glad to have you here! Hope you will stay and join us through the rest of the war!

Yes, it's a good and juicy idea...however i need my CVs in Northern Oz 40 days from now when the operation for Darwin will start... and God knows how i need them...i really cannot strip them and send them to the Bengal Bay...also because i'm pretty sure Rader won't use his CVs in a supporting role...he has Cylon, Sebang and the Adamans (which are well built) that will guard his ships movements...he doesn't need his CVs... so i have to keep my CVs in order to protect my convoys that will move from Perth towards Darwin...too few AFs in that region to leave this task to the LBA...

[princep01]

Powloon, for someone with limited experience with the game, those are very cogent thoughts. Good suggestions there, Reek.

And, I would add, even if you are using the CVs for the N. Oz gambit (also a good thing), it is not a long way there and back again to the points where you can interdict some of those transports. Always nice to keep the sea creatures happy with a harvest of loaded LYB transports. However, if you choose that course, I would not split my CVs to do that op. As Powloon observes, Rader may use the KB to support any large troop migration by sea.

Go forth! Engage the enemy more closely.

[Cribtop]

Well, I prefer to eliminate all other possibilities before I assume the enemy is making a mistake, but I must agree that it appears Rader is abandoning India. He is letting the jzanes game influence him, as well as his fear that you will someday amphib behind him there. We all know that isn't your plan, but he doesn't, and he sees your competence at Amphib ops improving in the Solomons. Well done.

I think your plan to go hard up NG has merit as you can eventually take Palawan, Luzon or Formosa and thus cut the lifeline to the DEI. The main disadvantage is that by taking only one avenue of approach you will allow the enemy to concentrate his forces against that avenue.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: SBD

Jan 28, 29, 30, 31 1944

Call me fool but i don't get Rader's strategy.... He moved everything back to Kohima (northern Burma!!!!).... my paras conquered Lahore and Dehli, while our troops are strat moving to occupy these key positions... not a single air mission conducted by the japs to interdict my movements...

Seems that Rader wants to leave the whole India in my hands and move the whole front back to Burma...

Well...we keep on advancing.... now, while some tanks units will secure Ralpawindi and northern India, the bulk of my army is moving to Dehli, where we're gonna organize again and get ready for the next jump...

I think Rader may be responding to the clock. He sees that the game's into '44 already & in 11 short months it will be '45. He has experience in his other game playing against the late war allies & knows what they can do. So he feels uncomfortable leaving a large # of troops in a forward position that could get flanked. Therefore he's consolidating his position.

Just my guess at what he's thinking. Of course there's also a chance that there could be some sort of ruse involved.

And it could be that he has calculated his industry needs up to the end of the war and just decided that he no longer needs the Indian industrial output to accomplish his aims. Still, I just don't know why he left. I might have pulled some troops out but still would not have moved out of the front line until Greyjoy forced me out. In light of his victory in China, the Japanese can lose 400,000 men in India if it buys them another half a year. There is no shortage of Japanese infantry in scen 2.

[Mistmatz]

I don't understand all the speculation about the retreat from India.

Rader got out of this adventure what he wanted. A lot of HI to feed his economy until the end of the war (or clock) and keeping half of the map almost completely quiet with LCUs so he could use the majority of naval assets and air groups in theaters that did matter to delay the allied advance.

He has achieved that and now he's moving out in a controlled manner, at his terms, to use his ground assets in a more important role - the defence of the inner perimeter. Or at least the outer layers...

So nothing surprising here.

[Xxzard]

However, Rader's retreat gives GJ room to maneuver in India, which was previously denied. The roads to and from Karachi are not the best, distances between bases large. If Rader kept GJ bottled up, which it seemed like he could, he had GJ contained to two bases, and any attack from GJ would have inconsistent air support from distant bases. A direct attack against 400k Japanese troops never seemed advisable, but if they are spread out and there is the possibility of flanking them or forcing retreat by maneuver, GJ is in much better shape. He already had the frontline bases very well established, and manned. He even had the outer islands secured, giving him a good chance to interdict any sneaky invasions behind his lines.

Do we have any evidence of a real retreat, not a re-positioning? That is what worries me. Perhaps my personality as a (digital) commander is closer to McClellan than Lee, but I'm concerned that Rader may be setting a trap and waiting for GJ to overexpose his forces.

In any case, keep you eyes open and recon planes flying GreyJoy!

[Alfred]

If Rader has set a trap for a tactical riposte, he has chosen very poor terrain for it. Last screenshot on previous page shows Japan has abandoned every base north of Cawnpore and Delhi was already in Allied hands.

To set up a trap Rader would have done best to:

(a) hold the Allied advance at the tri base area (Lahore, Amritsar, Sialkot)
(b) work around the Allied flanks, using excess troops from the tri base area plus Rawalpindi, to move on Multan which would have had much lower fortification levels than the tri base area bases (which allowed for plentiful of excess Japanese forces)
(c) advance his Jodhpur troops to Hyderabad (Sindh)
(d) advance along the coast from Ahmedabad to Karachi

This would still allowed him the additional option of a direct landing at Karachi.

Alfred

[GreyJoy]

Feb 1, 2, 3, 4 1944
 
Rader has moved everything to Burma border...at least that's what it seems wacthing the intel reports... he left little battaillons on my way in order to interdict the strat movement... he is already too far away so i cannot really catch him. After the capture of Dehli we're now dealing with these "stopping battaillons", annihilating them with my 4Es...while my armoured forces are moving to secure the bases around Dehli...no sign of japanese intervention...and recon says everything up to Cawpore is empty...
 
I don't think this is a trap...i'm keeping Karachi well garrisoned anyway, with a corp of 2000 AVs in strat mode at Multan...just to be sure...
 
We're also dealing with the bases up to ralpawindi...in one week the base and its industrial center will be in our hands again.
 
In the Solomons tomorrow we will deal with Vella La Vella, with a huge air bombing...after that, in 2 days, our II US Corp will unload at Panggoe and will immediately start to march towards Chiuseul...i do expect a strong and stiff air resistance to my landings...getting ready for it!
 
A DD division of ours swept Shortland for the first time in 3 months...found several MBTs and sunk 7 of them...however those guys are stiff and bastards just like my PTs...[:)]...soon, very soon...We'll start to bomb Shortland...can't wait to reduce Bouganville!
 
Tomorrow 3 Yorktown Classes CVs will have completed their 1/44 updates at Sydeny and will join the fleet at Ndeni again in order to support the next operations... now my CVs are all up to date with their upgrades, except for 3 of them...that are stopped to their 4/43 upgrades...but, for the moment, it's enough!
 
 

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

If Rader has set a trap for a tactical riposte, he has chosen very poor terrain for it. Last screenshot on previous page shows Japan has abandoned every base north of Cawnpore and Delhi was already in Allied hands.

To set up a trap Rader would have done best to:

(a) hold the Allied advance at the tri base area (Lahore, Amritsar, Sialkot)
(b) work around the Allied flanks, using excess troops from the tri base area plus Rawalpindi, to move on Multan which would have had much lower fortification levels than the tri base area bases (which allowed for plentiful of excess Japanese forces)
(c) advance his Jodhpur troops to Hyderabad (Sindh)
(d) advance along the coast from Ahmedabad to Karachi

This would still allowed him the additional option of a direct landing at Karachi.

Alfred

59 units were reported at Kohima last turn, and this turn we recieved heavy volume traffic in the road that from Ledo leads to Burma...he's really evacuating everything back to Burma...apparently not by sea but by land...[&:]

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
...
I don't think this is a trap...i'm keeping Karachi well garrisoned anyway, with a corp of 2000 AVs in strat mode at Multan...just to be sure...
...

If this corps is meant to counter a possible invasion of Karachi by sea you may want to move it to Hyderabad (the one next to Karachi) as you cannot STRAT move them into a contested hex (at least that's how I remember it).
This means you would have to move overland for a few hexes, so I would at least get rid of those strat move days and maybe even the days for changing mode from strat to regular move.

But as posted earlier I highly doubt he'll be around for small tactical battles. He is following his strategic goals.