Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

June 7, 1942

Subs

I-15 misses an ASW AM near Port Kembla. I bet a seaside town with a cool name like Port Kembla has awesome bars. We have a sub off San Francisco just to keep CF honest. Today its Glen flies over Mare Island and S.F. itself. That ought to get the enemy's attention. We have engaged in some careful recon and believe we've found the hex row that SF to PH bound convoys use. A Glen boat is parked there hoping for prey.

Anns from Sabang attack 2 enemy subs in the area while the first of 2 inbound ASW TFs with Mod-2 DCs harasses K XI. Cribtop HQ wants to make the head of the Malacca Strait very unwelcome territory for CF's silent hunters.

4th Fleet

Ichiki Detachment unloads at Kwaj while a construction LCU begins work at Tarawa.

SE Fleet

Horn Island is hit today by 10 B-17s. Our Nicks are coming and will base from Meruake, which now sports a lot of troops. A kamikaze xAK is unloading supplies at Horn Island. Given that so far only 1 in 5 kamikaze xAKs has been sunk, perhaps we should re-think the name of the mission. Perhaps "vaguely endangered xAKs?" [;)]

14th Fleet

No change.

16th Army

Bara occupied.

25th Army

No change. Haven't said that about this AO in a while.

15th Army

Cribtop HQ orders a study of a ground offensive against Akyab and an air offensive against Chittagong, where 70 enemy fighters are observed by recon. Elements would include a naval bombardment followed by A6M2 sweeps (much to the shame of the IJAAF) and IJAAF bombing raids. We would ideally wait for the moon (currently at 28%) to wax stronger and would lead the bombardment TF with an LCTF to clear PT boats (if present).

China

Continuing to move into position for Red Dragon. Quiet turns, but the feeling at Cribtop HQ is intense.

Hankow makes level 6 forts.

5th Fleet

Toyohara makes level 3 airfield; Bihoro level 4 forts. The Kuriles will be defended if CF ever comes calling.

CVE Unyo arrives at Ominato. The CVE Raiders will be detached from 5th Fleet and re-assigned to Combined Fleet for another raid very soon.

[ny59giants]

When it comes to China the difference between fighting in terrain with a x3 bonus like JR (Jungle-Rough) vs those like Jungle, Rough, or Woods with only a x2 defense modifier is huge. Hit his AFs hard to eat up supply and any unit that get into clear terrain. Besides the terrain modifier, the supply issue is huge. Just ask me. [:(]

[Cribtop]

June 8, 1942

A quiet turn. [>:]

Subs

Our ASW TF again harasses K XI.

4th & SE Fleets; 14th Army

No change.

16th Army

Most of our bombing raids are scrubbed today by bad weather, but our Sallys hit CF's armored stack for an eye-popping 79(24) casualties with 20([X(]) vehicles destroyed. All hits destroy. rather than disable, squads. Ouch, surely things are rough for the Aussie armor here.

Ruteng occupied.

25th Army

Almost to Sibolga. We should mop up Sumatra soon.

15th Army

Nothing flies as Thunderstorms rule the whole region. An RTA division arrives at Pegu and boards trains to free up IJA troops.

China

No change.

[Cribtop]

A few questions for the readerbase.

1) Assuming Operaton Red Dragon kicks off on June 15th, and assuming that CF is aware of the size of commitment of our forces in China by the 20th or so, and recalling that this is a Scenario 1 game so no extra IJA troops - how much spare LCU combat power will the enemy have to throw at us in the Pacific AOs between now and the historical date of Operation Watchtower in August? How big of an offensive can he send in?

2) Just noticed that HI in the pools went over 400K. We have about 2600 spare HI per turn (except for the turn each month we get dinged for pilot training). How would you rate that on the Japanese economy progress meter? PS - the resource shipment problem has been solved and we are now also receiving very regular shipments of Oil to the Home Islands.

[Mike Solli]

1) Well, there's the 1 Marine Division. I suspect CF could scrape up some RCTs as well. Not sure about that.

2) 2600 HI a day (minus the pilot costs) will give you ~700k HI per year. Assuming no change, you'll have ~1.5 million by 1944. I'd consider bumping up the HI factories in Java and Singapore when you can. Especially Java. Java has oil, refineries and resources. That's the perfect place to increase HI. I'd consider bumping up HI and possibly refineries to match the resource output. Any excess stuff can get shipped out.

[Cribtop]

Thanks, Mike. I'll have to rebuild Batavia's industry for the Java Plan, but that can be done as I have 1.9M supply in Tokyo and that grows each day.

PS - I have repaired HI in the DEI where I've taken it (and Wenchow) on the theory that HI is magically transported to the pools and every point I can wring from the "colonies" will keep me alive in '45 (now there's a JFB campaign slogan).

[ny59giants]

I'm in mid-August and I have both the 1st and 2nd Marines re-combined and elements of three more Marine divisions. I have 3 infantry divisions and some regiments bought out along with a few of my Kiwi friends. The Allies have very few APs to use and needs the slow unloading xAPs for any invasions. I've had to put back into action those APs that convert to APA in '43 to use. I hope not to lose many.

HI - I build up Georgetown and Singapore to 100 HI total. Hong Kong has gone to 100 HI. I agree with MS to build up Java some more. Her extra fuel goes to get the SRA ready for the eventual Allied counteroffensive here by stockpiling at various bases. Balikpapan goes to get Truk and South Pacific fuel needs met and stockpiled before extra goes to Honshu.

[Cribtop]

June 9, 1942

A day with tons of sub action with little to show for it for either side. This is appropriate as today we recalled almost all subs with the intention of forming sub flotillas and changing our sub tactics.

Subs

I-16 misses an AM off Colombo. I-2 misses a KV 1 hex away and suffers a penetrating hit in return. The sub will limp for Port Blair. Finally, I-3 is DC'd without result in the same zip code. Clearly CF is mobilizing ASW to deal with the sub cordon that is the last remnant of Operation Raging Bull II. Time to go home rather than endure constant British ASW attacks.

At the head of the Malacca Strait, we now have Anns and 3 ASW TFs working. They attack Truant but it's our SCs and the Type 95 DCs explode above the sub. We hope the Mod-2 DCs of the other 2 TFs will have better luck. Trusty duds on a DMS in an ASW TF a few hexes away. CF really should stop using those surplus American torpedoes. [;)] It's only fair though, as several I-boats have experienced duds in the game as well.

MKB aircraft attack a sub in the Sunda Strait, presumably Pike.

Seal duds on our kami xAK as it departs Horn Island. Once again, one of our kami xAKs escapes.

Allied aircraft attack an I-boat off Brisbane.

Other than that, not much happened in the sub war today. [:D]

As mentioned, Cribtop HQ has performed an analysis of our sub efforts to date, which have been lacking. It appears that CF is using large convoys to supply Fiji, Tahiti and Pearl. We have not had success finding his convoys, in part due to smart routing by the enemy and in part due to the fact that the large "trunk" convoys are infrequently passing by. We have paid attention to the linear nature of the game's algorithms, and note the fate of Warspite as she ran a gauntlet of subs and was attacked multiple times. The answer we have landed on is use of multiple subs with similar range in flotillas that will be deployed en masse near a given target for a time before moving elsewhere. Setting this up will require us to recall most subs to hub bases in order to create the flotillas.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Shortlands makes level 2 airfield, Milne Bay makes level 2 forts only a few days after engineers begin work. Our kamikaze xAK unloads over 1,000 supply points at Horn Island. Our Nick group is still moving toward Meruake and a CAP trap as CF still has 10 B-17s making training runs here.

14th Army

We are loading to take the last few central PI bases. This whole campaign has been slowed up by garrison requirements, or more accurately by our poor management of same.

16th Army

Memboro occupied. The Port Hedland invasion approaches the target, covered by the Timor Sea Squadron. We are taking advantage of the fact that CF revealed the location of his CVs while he took advantage of knowing where MKB was. This is probably the last amphib of the war by Japan except for counterinvasions later on.

25th Army

The CVs and their companions safely transit the Sunda Strait. The warships will make a brief stop at Singers while the Fleet Oilers gas up at Palembang. DA takes Sinkep with 30:1 odds and forces the surrender of a Dutch battalion. Only a few defended bases left in the DEI.

15th Army

CF is obsessively reconning Prome, where we have 3 construction units hard at work. No idea what he's up to, but we will park one brigade of an RTA division just in case he is planning something. We are re-grouping the IJAAF while awaiting enough moon to try an attack at Chittagong.

China

Our former Java divisions sail on toward Canton while a division bought out of Manchukuo arrives at Shanghai and will load for Canton.

[Cribtop]

June 10, 1942

As eight IJA divisions close inexorably on southern China by sea and land, the war goes very quiet. We will only report by active AOs.

4th Fleet

Forts at TB go to level 4.

16th Army

Tockangbesi-eilanden invaded. Name change here is imminent. [;)] Bima is also invaded.

25th Army

Forts at Singers make level 5.

15th Army

CF is still reconning Prome. Did he forget to change orders on an air unit? Odd.

China

The KMT stack near Wuchang is trying to both cover its suddenly endangered rear and continue forward to rescue its trapped brethren. This sort of distraction in Central China is perfect for the purposes of achieving operational surprise in the south.

[Cribtop]

June 11, 1942

Good news in China as the storm prepares to break.

Subs

Hordes of IJN subs stream home. K XI misses an ASW DD near Sabang; Ann reports a hit on a sub in the same hex.

4th Fleet

Tarawa, now augmented with a construction unit and a base force, is fortifying nicely.

SE Fleet

More troops load at Ambon and Kendari for Meruake (for those of you as OCD as I am, note for the record that Ambon and Kendari are of course in 16th Army AO; Meruake is the western boundary the SE Fleet AO even though much of the forces for the base are coming from 16th Army).

90th Regiment will be transferred to Munda Point in 2 TFs over the next week or so as we continue to stiffen the front lines here.

14th Army

DA at Tacloban takes the base and forces the surrender of a PA regiment. Finally.

16th Army

Port Hedland is invaded today and appears to be defended only by a small base force. The base forces chased out of Broome are tragically 1 hex to the East after a desperate cross-desert hike. No sign our invasion fleet was detected. So far, so good.

Bima and Tockangbesi-eilanden fall to DBCL forces.

25th Army

MKB, Tanaka Force, and the Fleet Oilers arrive safely at Singapore. As we re-fill air groups, Cribtop HQ is pleased to learn that total pilot losses for the whole (mis)adventure that was Raging Bull II amounted to 4 Kate jocks from Junyo shot down by Hurricanes. We aren't thrilled with the damage to the enemy (BB Warspite, 2 CLs, and 2 or 3 DDs sunk, by Cribtop Intel's count), but at least losses were miniscule. MKB will head for Shangri-La to refit and be in position to counter CF's expected reaction to Operation Red Dragon, which we believe will occur in the Pacific AOs.

Sawahloento occupied. Recon confirms that the bombing 2 days ago utterly annihilated the Bengkalis base force. Only a few more bases and Sumatra will be all red.

Base forces approach Christmas Island (IO) and Cocos. We will recce the latter before landing to confirm it's empty. If not, 2nd Raiding Regt will be detailed to make the capture before that unit shifts to Burma.

15th Army

55th Division is at last officially re-formed while a decently trained RTA Division arrives at Prome. We continue to study a variety of offensive options but the margin for error may be too thin. OTOH, even a spoiling attack here may force CF to spend PPs in Burma when he needs them more elsewhere.

China

Our training Sentai in western (map) Manchukuo finishes off an isolated HQ unit today and will shift to another stack surrounded in the far north.

The big news is that we slipped an armored car LCU into the empty hex just East (map) of Changsha. This cuts off the KMT's "Wuchang" stack, a portion of which is already counter-marching but is too late. Behind the armored car are 600 AS of IJA troops that will arrive in 2 days. By Cribtop Intel's calculations, CF may arrive in the hex tomorrow, ordering a SA for the following day, when he will be rudely surprised by a lot more combat power than he expects in a wooded hex. Could be a bloody nose for him. That tactical good news pales in comparison to the operationally significant opportunity to snare the entire Wuchang stack, and THAT pales in comparison to the distraction this whole thing must present as we are only a few days away from the launch of Operation Red Dragon. Specifically, 4 divisions begin landing in Canton in 48 hours, with a 5th Division beginning to land the next day. The China AO is about to get really interesting.



5th Fleet

Shimushiri Jima makes level 2 airfield. The Naval Guard unit slated for Paramushiro Jima has finished unloading.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I'm in mid-August and I have both the 1st and 2nd Marines re-combined and elements of three more Marine divisions. I have 3 infantry divisions and some regiments bought out along with a few of my Kiwi friends. The Allies have very few APs to use and needs the slow unloading xAPs for any invasions. I've had to put back into action those APs that convert to APA in '43 to use. I hope not to lose many.
.....

I think its a good question ny59giants because you center the conversaton not around the PP's to buy stuff, but the real constraint on operations -- the number of AP's and AK's along with the willingness to use these valuable assets.

To drop an Army Dvision in one turn on the atoll Tarawa in Apr '42 I did have to use 13 AP's and two AK's. I followed with with 4 AP's and 4 AK's with BF's and supplies. With this configuration and using the BIG AK's one can drop a USA division and 25K supplies in one turn. That meant also that all of this was marshaled waiting for the opporunity including preping for the invasion.

In my game we shall see how long they last exposed to naval and air bombardment. One month later I have 19K supplies on a lonely atoll. That is teh other allied consideration. If the AFB opens up a front before March '43 the IJ can respond in kind very rapidly and isolate those forces.

[Mike Solli]

Cribtop, things sound very good right now.

Question for you: Why are you transferring the 90 Reg to Munda Point? Is that base that significant for you? The 90 Reg is a wonderful unit. As you did, I usually send it to the SE Fleet area for initial invasions of Rabaul and PM. After that, I keep it as a reserve force. It has the ability to make a difference even though it is only a regiment.

The invasion of Pt. Hedland is a nice move. In my last game, I never got it and my opponent used it to very good effect basing surface raiders and bombers to be used to the east against my beachhead in Australia.

Which divisions (in addition to the 5th) are landing in China?

[Cribtop]

Mike,

Good question. Munda is a key base for me as my plan is to garrison and fortify, but not improve, Tulagi and Milne Bay. Intention is to absorb CF's initial invasion and use a series of built up bases in the middle Solomons, NG, and Bougainville to make life hard for the Allies once they land. As such, Munda is fortified and about to make level 4 airfield. It contains an Air HQ and is a Netty nest with the potential to throw in Vals for good measure. Thus, 90th Regt is an appropriate garrison here. My SE Fleet local reserve is provided by 20th Division at Truk.

In China we have two Manchukuo divisions (14th and 29th I think) that have been bought into Southern Army. We also have 3 divisions assigned to 13th Army near Kanshien. The 4 "Java" divisions are 2nd, 5th, 38th and one I can't remember. I'll check tonight. They are all crack. 17th Army HQ is at Canton and will advance in conjunction with 23rd Army HQ.

As to things going well, I confess I'm thrilled at how we've used interior lines in central China to frustrate CF, and the timing of this latest move is perfect. Success is far from certain - there are a lot of Chinamen and we are under a time crunch. My greatest fear all along was that CF would see my weakness in Southern China and move in strength on Amoy or Wenchow. Fortunately he did not do so.

[Cribtop]

June 12, 1942

A snafu caused by me forgetting to send CF a turn I already processed and him being too sick to let me know about it caused a short hiatus. We are back on track now and off the dungeon of Page 2.

Subs

I-25 shoots at two separate DDs just off San Francisco rather than trying its luck at the huge convoys brimming with xAKs and TKs. Genius. The sub gets a penetrating DC hit in return and will slink back to Kwaj in shame. The sub targeting routines really need a tweak as one juicy target after another sails by while we miss nimble DDs. It affects CF equally, but it's frustrating to time a convoy arrival perfectly and get nothing to show for it. We do get intel, however, namely confirmation that CF is running a small number of large convoys for supplies and fuel. This should be good news when the CVE Raiders head out soon.

4th Fleet, SE Fleet, 14th Army

No change.

16th Army

Nells from Koepang hammer the Port Hedland base force and then our naval guard unit takes the base easily. We will unload a base force of our own tomorrow and then retire to safer environs. Lomblen makes level 4 airfield.

25th Army

Bengkalis invaded. We confirm that the enemy was wiped off the map here by our elite Helen/Lilly II air wing. Those bombers are now moving to China.

15th Army

1st Raiding regiment drops into Ramree Island (which we already owned) to provide a stopgap garrison until footsloggers can arrive. Weather here today is so bad that not even recon flights take off.

China

We beat the Wuchang stack to the hex east of Changsha. Now we will use an armored car unit to try to close the enemy out if he continues to retire this way. We will unload 4 divisions at Canton tomorrow. The countdown to Red Dragon is now only a matter of days. Timing for the offensive seems ideal, but you never know.

[princep01]

Crib, you may be right about the programming tweak on sub target selection. However, it sometimes occurred that the DDs or other escorts detected a sub before it could get into firing position on the convoy merchants. I have always assumed it to be the case that the sub was firing at the escort in self preservation when it "chose" to fire at an escort. In other words, the escort did its job and stopped the sub from attacking the convoy. Perhaps this is wrong, but that was the way I interpreted this action.

[Cribtop]

I actually agree with this interpretation for some of the escort attacks as it surely happened IRL. However, when I see a 20 ship convoy with 2 DDs and the sub still goes after an escort far more often than not things start to look fishy to me.

PS - Mike Solli recently asked the identity of the fourth division heading to China. It's the 16th. I had trouble remembering that one 'cause I just re-formed it on Java - it starts split up.

[Mike Solli]

Thanks Cribtop. You definitely have an elite force going into China. That should get CF squirming. [:D]

[Cribtop]

June 13, 1942

Quietest... Turn... Ever...

There is so little to say that I'll just say it fast. We occupy Bengkalis with all 40 Oil intact (tankers are there already to begin loading). Daly Waters makes level 3 forts. We begin to unload at Canton.

That's all, folks!

[Cribtop]

Interlude

Canton, China. June 14, 1942.

Lieutenant General Hyakatuke Harukichi, Commanding Officer, 17th Army, stood on a balcony overlooking the sprawling docks of Canton. Most of the harbor was filled with junks, riverboats and small merchant ships, but today the main port of entry was reserved entirely to the Imperial Japanese Army. One large transport after another tied up, disgorged its living cargo, and then moved on. The process had been ongoing since well before dawn. Men and equipment queued up and marched deeper into the City, and from there all the way to temporary camps on the outskirts of the Chinese countryside. This was no parade for his benefit. The men flowed by with the nanchalant purpose of veterans who knew their business and were seeing to it. Four crack divisions would unload today, and another would arrive tomorrow. These were the cream of the IJA, the conquerors of Hong Kong, Singapore, Java, Burma and Australia. None of the Allied armies had been able to halt their inexorable advance over the Southern Resource Area. Symbolically, the transport convoy for these forces had just yesterday passed a large tanker convoy bound for Japan with captured Dutch Oil from Sumatra to feed the Imperial war machine. Hyakatuke was well pleased with the forces assigned to him for the upcoming attack on Southern China, but the scope of the operation concerned him.

As if he could hear his commander's thoughts, Hyakatuke's Chief of Staff, Major General Akisaburo Futami spoke. "That would be the 2nd Division already. Progress is a bit ahead of schedule so far, Sir. I am also pleased to report that the supply convoy has radioed in and will make port within 48 hours. Furthermore, the 7th Bomber Wing's air groups are staging from Hainan Island this morning, so air support should be ready. Operation Red Dragon should be able to commence as planned. We can almost walk the men off the ships and directly into battle at Wuchow. 13th and 23rd Armies also report ready to commence the attack. It would appear that everything is arranged."

Hyakatuke smiled at this ten thousandth recitation of his Chief of Staff's favorite phrase. The man believed that war consisted of moving enough bullets and rice bags from point A to point B. Then again, moving rice was his job, and there was some truth to the idea that logistics won battles. "What of aerial recon?" asked the Commander.

"Latest reports show all target cities still lightly held, particularly Wuchow and Kweilin," said Akisaburo.

"I will grudgingly admit that Imperial General Headquarters planned this Op well, and that surprise is likely, but it won't last. There are vast, uncommitted Chinese Armies in the interior that will react," replied Hyakatuke.

Akisaburo looked pensive. "But keeping the enemy's reserves occupied is the purpose of the northern pincer, yes?"

"Correct, but the sheer size of the enemy's forces could allow him to block all of our advances under the right circumstances," said Hyakatuke.

"Sir, don't forget our qualitative advantages. It is no exaggeration to say that each of our men is worth ten of the Kuomintang."

"True enough. That leaves me with only one thing to worry about," mused Hyakatuke.

"What is that, General?"

"The eleventh Chinaman, Futami."

[Mike Solli]

This is exciting, Cribtop. Can you post a map showing your intent with Operation Red Dragon? Anything else of interest too, such as ground and air OOBs and anything else. Thanks!