Helio's Axis AAR (v Cannonfodder Soviet)

[heliodorus04]

I’m leaving the area south of the Dnepr bend undefended, largely. I have a host of Romanian units, previously doing garrison duty (now replaced by Hungary’s SEC units), moving into the area piecemeal, who can make a great ad-hoc defense of the Dnepr even in mud. Your wife’s cat can guard the Dnepr…

I don’t think he can penetrate the pocket anywhere in there – it’s double layered. I don’t think he can threaten my supply without endangering much bigger prizes to his east.

In the Crimea, a snake-like Cav isolated one infantry division, and the other bailed it out, and are falling back on the choke. Two forts now cover the chokes (the last one can wait a bit. CF has 10 divisions or so down there. I can maneuver it using regiments, I think I’m rather good at that, but the supply is strained as it is to the choke, so there’s no point.

And I leap forward into the Rasputitsa…
Later today I will post T18's OOB/loss figures.

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04



But I have made a point to hammer his cav whenever I have an opportunity, to keep their morale low so they aren’t as fast. Who knows if it has any effect. Soviet cav is snake-like. We hates it forevah!

+1
I just do it because I hate horses and they do supplement the rations which helps too.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Helio, if you take Moscow, I am going to laugh my ass off. You've spilled a lot of electrons lecturing us how the game is broken and biased in favor of the Soviets. A lot of nonsense, quite frankly. Games where both Leningrad and Moscow fall will become relatively common in this patch.

Mostly I wish you'd start cultivating a bit more sangfroid when playing these games. It's very difficult to take your criticisms seriously when looking at how you are actually doing.

Games where Leningrad and Moscow fall is because of crappy game play by the Russian player, not the patch.

I hear you bitch its to easy to take Moscow?

Thats alot of nonsence quite frankly and you know it. Did Jamiam take Moscow vs you? No.

All things being equal Moscow is never taken. I had 3 poeple hold Moscow vs me, 1 won and 2 are on going.
Its not possible to take Moscow vs a Good russian player.
Q-ball raided Moscow because BG made a rookie mistake and did not garrison it. Q-ball did not get withen 5 hexes other then the raid.

You making that claim is an out right joke. Yes and It's very difficult to take your criticisms seriously when looking at how you are actually doing. Did you lose Moscow vs Jamiam, no. When you do lose Moscow then you can make your claim based on fact not fanboyism for the Russian side.

If you had your way, Russian production would be higher, manpower higher, German logistics nerfed, HQ build-up nerfed, the blizzard harder on Germans ect ect.

Moscow is only taken if the Russian player is average to poor and is playing a good German of which there are very few.

Your being an ass giving Helio shit when we all look at how you actually do in your games.

If Moscow is lost its because of crappy game play or uber luck.

Pelton

[heliodorus04]

I appreciate your defense Pelton, but I do think we'd all be enjoying ourselves more if we assumed the other guys were doing the best they can to give input that makes the game better.  I'm personally trying to make my tone more likable and to recognize Flavius (among others) as a good counter to my fanaticism that only I see things accurately.

[heliodorus04]

Numbers




I’m happy with how I’ve managed to control the size of the Red Army, if not the Red Air Force.

[heliodorus04]

Remember last turn when I said it would be ‘very very bad’ for the Finns?

[heliodorus04]

About what I expected. And alarming. We know his supply is better, but not for very many hexes. Debating whether I pull the Finns back, but if I move at all, I’m making my defensive position worse, and in one turn, I won’t be getting back into supply. I’m pretty sure my plan up here is: BLUFF.

And I think that will be a plan for a lot of the turn in a lot of places. In a lot of others, it will simply be “rest, don’t move much.” But as you’ll soon see, I’ve got some good and glaring weaknesses based on the doubling down of rail iines.

[heliodorus04]

Out by Vyshny Volichek, it’s not as bad as I expected it to be.

[heliodorus04]

I can live with those stacks being low supply. His supply grid isn’t that good out here, though I’m going to have to push east a bit this turn. Iv Vyshny itself is in solid supply, then I’m happy.

[heliodorus04]

Around Moscow, it’s the same basic thing: I can live with it.

[heliodorus04]

This is acceptable to the alternative, which is red-state. We’re over 50MPs, but under 100. We can defend in mud. I’ll do some consolidating in the Ryazan sector, but otherwise I think “Hold” is the order of the turn.

Because I consider this serious, I have brought back the FBD from Torzhok this turn, and it will start building eastward on the line at Rzhev next turn. It will be slow, but by snow supply state should be solid.

The question I seem to have to ask is how much power I think CF can apply this turn, and how much he intends to.

[heliodorus04]

On to the Ryazan-Kursk axis.

[heliodorus04]

Not bad. Good supply situation and an okay local force differential. Again, a sector I shall Hold in.

The Izyum pocket is the matter of the turn.

[heliodorus04]

It’s about where I thought it would be. I don’t have enough experience attacking in mud to know how to optimize my attack strategy. What I must try to do is close this pocket. I don’t know if I should conduct a couple of attacks, and then see what can move, or if I should move, and then see if I should make any attacks.

My game-player strategy tells me that I should avoid attacking as much as possible on my turn 18. If I conduct a bunch of attacks that turn out to be unsuccessful, it will give CF some confidence, and he might attack me in return. If I leave it a big mystery, he has to decide if he’s willing to attack my army while it’s muddy. Meanwhile, close that pocket!

The SS are out of supply holding the eastern edge. If there’s any unit you want out there, it’s the SS. L.A.H. and Wiking, at 90% TOE. And the Luftwaffe is stacked here.

[heliodorus04]

From the DANGER WILL ROBINSON FILE
Behold, the crimea…

[heliodorus04]

What concerns me, and it concerns me greatly, is that this is where my rail lines have the furthest to go before help can be attained. Now, things are swimming along with auto-repair in the south, but almost all of that work has been north of a line drawn from Cherkassy to Proskurov, and lately around the SW of D-town.

If CF were to take somerisks on the Romanians, and get lucky leadership rolls, with the +1 odds shift he could cross. And then he’s pretty free to run to D-town. I have more units headed down. I have 2 German divisions at the main choke. If he broke out from there, I’d have to divert the closest FBD, and given the weather, and the distance away from supply he would run, I could cover it.

I really believe I have his army on the run, and simply far too weak to contest me now. He needs mud everywhere but the far north, and around Moscow. He needs to recover, I believe, and short of trying to save 200,000 men in the Izyum pocket, the front will be pretty idle.

Basically nothing is moving much, and I don’t see a need to post screenshots except at the Izyum pocket.

During this phase of the securing of the Izyum pocket, I noticed something I had never seen before: as I opened the supply path from the railhead near D-town to the units on the Donets and across it, they went from Red supply status to Yellow. Relief. I’ve gotten one Held result in the pocket, although a few retreats, since I started. I think I’ve got it secured for another turn.

You can attack in mud, but you will usually need a deliberate attack. My held result was a deliberate by 9.panzer div with its 23-tanks (don’t ask me how many are ready) and the Slovakian mobile. I keep stacking it with something for a win, and it keeps losing. Starting to think it’s jinxed.

[heliodorus04]

Izyum is held by me firmly now

[heliodorus04]

I’m a big fan of Advanced Squad Leader (if you play VASL, let me know), and I always enjoyed how scenarios at the squad level were reduced actions of these larger campaigns, and in my eyes, there’s really been one hell of a battle that raged from Kharkov to Izyum over turns 11 to 18, and here at the desperate end of it, Izyum has changed hands 4 times in two weeks. The helpless population of the Donets cities dig in while there comrades cannot slush through the rasputitsa fast enough. The fighting is grueling, and for some of the dead here, they are grateful at least for the rest.

My goal is efficiency of movement, and improvement of supply.
I’m having a hard time crossing the Donets at Kharkov though… More on that later…

[heliodorus04]

And after considering what’s happening between Orel and Tula, my spidey-senses went off, and I realized there was nothing worth holding north of Ryazan. We cross back, leaving a screening force.

[heliodorus04]

By the way, I’m going to do some on-map writing in all-caps when I think it’s a matter of visibility in a place where shades might make it harder for someone with, say, eyesight as bad as mine, to see. It’s not meant as ‘shouts’.

You cans see what I’m worried about. Now, 4.Army is my strongest army in the local area, but I don’t want to test him. I have to leave the Oka swamps simply because of supply and flank security. I still have the launching off point for a Typhoon on the eastern side of the Moskva.
The hex I really NEED is Stupino (circled in blue). And if that Tula line gets pressured, I’ll abandon even that. This Ryazan salient is a horrible place to try to supply, and the rail lines don’t work in your favor, actually even at Stupino. I’m not ready to give up that position at the confluence of the Moskva and the Oka, but I would be willing to if he threatened Tula. Tula is a ccity I need to try to hold over the winter.

It’s a goddamn mess over there in terms of supply. It has bad news written all over it, and I’m relying on a relatively mediocre-leadership crew of 4.Army to buy me time, if nothing else.

I’m considering a winter offensive that moves toward the Don and in a southeasterly direction…

Elements 1.Corps will be arriving in any locally needed area and is thus a good strategic reserve, and I have a shell panzer division on refit on rail in the rear. I’ve got plans for worst case.