Helio's Axis AAR (v Cannonfodder Soviet)

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Finally, back to the Izium pocket

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Railheads are in good position, with an FBD in Kharkov, and the other you can see in the bottom center of the map. I don’t think I’ll have supply any worse next turn than this, so that gives me more time to reduce. I was not able to cross the Donets from the west side/Kharkov side, and so had to thin my defense to cover the rail net around Kharkov (those are automateds, except the one you can’t see in Kharkov).

Another game where Kharkov fighting is fierce… What is it about that town? I have this great book called “Platz Der Liebstandarte” with really nice photos from SS War Correspondents involved in the campaign in Feb/Mar 43.

Things are a bit sketchy still south of D-town, but I have enough counters that I can get throw around a bit, and 3 German divisions to act as fire brigades. It’s the crimea that I’m worried about, because supply will take a long time to reach there, and suddenly that’s a cause for concern… No pictures. You can imagine… This could be crisis territory in blizzard, due to supply, and I’m wondering if I shouldn’t devote one of the two AGS FBDs to starting to burn a rail line from D-town to the southwest and the Crimea. Sounds like a very good idea given how things are going in the two places…

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Turn 19 has arrived, so here are the stats starting my review of Turn 18 (Mud everywhere):

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My only question for readers is what I do with the forts I'm building. I've heard people say to turn their refit off the turn after they're built, which I've been doing. That turn typically brings them to 85% TOE, and I'm leaving it there. Fort prep is new to me, so if anyone can explain to me the tradeoffs.

I figure my armaments are low like this because of the forts and the fact that losses have finally caught up. My plan is to lower TOEs for all units starting in the snow. My understanding is that it's better to not refill the units taking casualties through the blizzard (at lest all of December, longer if you can make it).

What should I put airbases at? What's the best things to do with SUs? Back at OKH in a city?

And am I allowed to be somewhat comforted by the casualties I've caused the Soviet over the period being high enough that his blizzard will be weakened?

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Nothing to report in the Leningrad area. For some reason I went a bit mad and broke everything into regiments to dig in every hex. Not really productive; I think I was obsessing while looking at the map. What should I do with the eastern Finnish force? Withdraw?

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Here’s a macro-view of Vyshny Volichek and surroundings

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Since I’ve only gotten to mud in 2 games prior to this, now I’m in my inexperience zone (and even then it was 1.04). Not sure if I over-spent AP on forts up here, but I want to hold firm at the Valdai, and I intend to try to set up to hold Vyshny to Kalinin. I’m considering a snow offensive with a few mobile elements toward the highlighted rail line. If I can cut that central line, I can reduce the pressure.

But more importantly than that, I’m having to ask myself whether I have too many units committed up here for what is necessary. I’ll probably pull a couple decent-morale divisions off the line to become a strategic reserve.
Still bluffing with Finland…

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The Kalinin-Moscow Axis

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Of note are the forts. These will be my fallback positions for the first turn of blizzard. I lost a fort I just put down where that encircled division retreated. Oh well.

Supply is still strained here, but CF is holding the north of Moscow with weak cav divisions and airborne brigades. I make it a point to try to hit cav whenever I can. When alone, they are almost always an easy win (and TOE changes around this time make some of the good cav weaker and smaller). So I attacked, shattering an airborne brigade, and seeing a wide enough opening that I can put pressure on immediately. CF should have to divert units from the central area north. I can’t do much of anything up there, but it’s not out of the question that the FBD heading east toward Moscow (the southern one circled on the map above) could divert itself north to make it better supplied. I have a rail line that can reach there without going through enemy ZOC.

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The Tula-Orel-Kursk frontier.

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This is a dangerous zone for me, particularly at Kursk where 6.Army is strained to hold the distance south of Kursk, and 4.Army is strained north of Kursk. Good morale Italians can slow an advance for a turn long enough to flex. The defense in the center is designed to channel him away from good supply. I try to leave an obvious faster-movement path, but the design is aimed at over-extending. Not sure it works against a human; I’ve only defended as Soviet really. It worked when I played Soviet, maybe it can work again here.

Obviously, when the snow winds down, I will be withdrawing from the Ryazan salient. I’m not sure if anything can be accomplished by a northward drive for my units north of the Oka. I’m starting to think, given the limits of a snow offensive, and what I would need to accomplish to be able to hold that position in the Blizzard, I think even a westward advance aimed at shortening the distance along the south-side of Moscow might be counter-productive.

As an alternate plan, I’m thinking about withdrawing from the north-bank of the Oka in a more stealthy fashion while the mud is ongoing.

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Here is what I’m thinking:

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I would need to move the mobile units around over the next 2 mud turns to accomplish this. Easy enough for one of the panzer groups, but getting something to Orel is a bit harder. I have Das Reich and a shell panzer division attached to OKH and as a strategic reserve. They’re going to have to get allocated to Orel, I think.

I think this is a more productive use of my very limited offensive power for 3 turns of Snow than trying to fight through the fort belt at Moscow. Even 10 counters, especially if Rifle divisions, removed from the map now makes my 1942 better. So that’s where I’m headed with my snow offensive.

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Now the Kursk-Kharkov section of line.

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What is obvious from looking at the rail line is that any attack will lead through Kursk, because his rail supply goes right to its door.

On the other hand, if my planned Tula snow offensive goes well, he’s going to have to reconsider launching a westward/southwestward attack while his northern flank is collapsing. Further, it wouldn’t take a lot of force to hit that rail junction between Kursk and Voronezh, and thus buy a lot of supply distance between his railhead and me. I think that junction is a “if I can take it, I’ll try.”

This whole center is dangerous, but it gets better as supply gets closer, and at a minimum, I can close almost all these rail networks by the start of Blizzard, if not snow.

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Now the Izyum Pocket

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Again, I’m continually improving my supply position to the eastern-side of the pocket. This pocket is, I believe, closed.

It will probably require a corps of each army involved over the next two turns. The goal will be to extract the armor in time that they can switch to offense in snow, so that has to start next turn. 6.Army then flexes northward, 11.Army holds a line opposite the Donbas cities, and 17.Army/11.Army drive south being lead by 1.Panzer Group.

Defensively, I’m hoping to hold firm from Kharkov southward to the Dnepr loop, over the blizzard. I think having bagged as many good divisions as I have helps me here. I’m eager to see how my supply situation is next turn, what the infantry can accomplish in terms of pocket clearing, and where my panzers can be in prep for the snow offensive.

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But I’m examining each of our winter offensive/counter-offensive possibilities.

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You can see he has a rail network that supports a large-scale offensive on the Dnepr loop. I really see this blue-lined offensive as mandatory for my snow turns.

Does anyone know off-hand if I could airdrop the airborne division (visible on this map, circled in yellow) to cut that rail line? It withdraws in 9 turns – this would be an interesting test for it, and if it shattered, it would only eat some replacements and leave. I’d have to take that port before I could be sure of isolation. But it’s a reasonably achievable goal, and probably a necessary one.

I think the one thing I have going for me is that the units opposing me are always weaker every turn, and now he’s holding sections of line with armor and infantry brigades. These, plus the weakened cav divisions, are enabling me to keep rolling at times. I will almost always take a shot at these for the easy win, which benefits Morale and might keep an additional hex German-friendly when otherwise I wouldn’t want to enter it. Like I did at Izyum over the last 3 turns. One respectable rifle division there (if he has any, and I believe he does) would have required probably another unit for me to attack. Not worth it, usually.

That’s where the turn ends. 2 more mud turns. I think I’ve done well with what I have so far.

[Peltonx]

no it cant be dropped.

Also I would not attack a single unit you have in that pocket, because if you wait unit November they dont come back for free.

Let them rot until snow.