The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

Only the reply has come...turn will have to wait few more hours... (Rader didn't say anything in his mails so far)

Let me give to you........


...........the invasion of the Kuriles (will be long...sorry)

The day was decided by the actions of our DDs that bombed Bihoro and prevented to all those damned Netties to take off...

He airlifted several units to Uruppu...stopping my first shock attack...but now i have enough troops ashore to get the base no matter what.

However several jap transports were lost in the former process...

So far so good...

The first attacks from Bihoro have all been repulsed...

Now we have more than 4000 AVs already ashore in 3 different bases...



AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Mar 24, 44
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Night Naval bombardment of Shimushiri-jima at 132,51

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-56 Thalia: 28 damaged
Ki-56 Thalia: 1 destroyed on ground
H6K4 Mavis: 20 damaged
H6K4 Mavis: 2 destroyed on ground
E13A1 Jake: 5 damaged
Ki-57-I Topsy: 22 damaged
Ki-57-I Topsy: 2 destroyed on ground
J1N1-S Irving: 28 damaged
J1N1-S Irving: 4 destroyed on ground

Allied Ships
BB Queen Elizabeth
BB Idaho
CA Exeter
CA Portland
DD Philip
DD Owen
DD Murray
DD Mullany
DD Miller

Japanese ground losses:
264 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled)



Airbase hits 42
Airbase supply hits 9
Runway hits 77
Port hits 14
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 6


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Night Naval bombardment of Etorofu at 128,52

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M3 Nell: 31 damaged
G3M3 Nell: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-27b Nate: 141 damaged
Ki-27b Nate: 9 destroyed on ground
E13A1 Jake: 11 damaged
E13A1 Jake: 3 destroyed on ground
B5N2 Kate: 51 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 9 destroyed on ground
B5M1 Mabel: 22 damaged
B5M1 Mabel: 1 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
AR Yamabiko Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
ACM Mejima Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
BB New Mexico
CA Louisville
DD McCord
DD Marshall
DD Luce
DD Longshaw

Japanese ground losses:
222 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 31 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled



Airbase hits 31
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 67


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Night Naval bombardment of Uruppu-jima at 130,52

Allied Ships
CL Denver
DD Frankford
DD McCook
DD Thompson
DD Kalk

Japanese ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled



Airbase hits 26
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 40
Port hits 14
Port supply hits 2


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Night Naval bombardment of Bihoro at 123,51

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 11 damaged
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 6 damaged
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed on ground
G3M2 Nell: 18 damaged
G3M2 Nell: 1 destroyed on ground
P1Y1 Frances: 18 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 4 damaged
G4M2 Betty: 21 damaged
G4M2 Betty: 1 destroyed on ground
A6M2 Zero: 4 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed on ground
G4M1 Betty: 7 damaged

Allied Ships
DD Wadsworth
DD Wadleigh
DD Norman Scott
DD Schroeder

Japanese ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Airbase hits 16
Runway hits 63
Port supply hits 1

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Uruppu-jima at 129,53

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 13
B6N2 Jill x 4



Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 19


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 7 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses



CAP engaged:
VF-40 with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(19 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 19 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 19000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 1 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Uruppu-jima at 129,51

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 71 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 6
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 11



Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 30


Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 4 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 3 destroyed

No Allied losses





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Uruppu-jima at 130,52

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
P1Y1 Frances x 6
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 30
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 11



Allied aircraft
Corsair II x 4
Seafire IIC x 2
FM-2 Wildcat x 48
F4U-1A Corsair x 40
F6F-3 Hellcat x 155


Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y1 Frances: 4 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 8 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses


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Morning Air attack on 74th Infantry Regiment, at 132,51 (Shimushiri-jima)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 44 minutes


Allied aircraft
Swordfish II x 9
Avenger II x 23
Corsair II x 2
Seafire IIC x 2
FM-1 Wildcat x 9
FM-2 Wildcat x 47
F4U-1A Corsair x 54
F6F-3 Hellcat x 122
TBF-1 Avenger x 155
TBM-1C Avenger x 31


Allied aircraft losses
TBF-1 Avenger: 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
179 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 31 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled




Also attacking Western Army ...
Also attacking 74th Infantry Regiment ...
Also attacking Western Army ...
Also attacking 74th Infantry Regiment ...


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Ground combat at Uruppu-jima (130,52)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 1454 troops, 0 guns, 202 vehicles, Assault Value = 237

Defending force 3110 troops, 48 guns, 20 vehicles, Assault Value = 55

Allied adjusted assault: 57

Japanese adjusted defense: 73

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
232 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 2



Assaulting units:
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
28th (East African) Brigade
37th Infantry Div /1

Defending units:
42nd Nav Gd /1
Maizuru 4th SNLF /1
Sasebo 6th SNLF /1
Karafuto Mixed Bde /1
74th Infantry Rgt /1
21st Field AF Construction Battalion
56th JNAF AF Unit
67th JAAF AF Bn


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Ground combat at Uruppu-jima (130,52)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 317 troops, 8 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 36

Defending force 6239 troops, 88 guns, 291 vehicles, Assault Value = 232

Japanese ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Assaulting units:
Karafuto Mixed Bde /1
Sasebo 6th SNLF /1
67th JAAF AF Bn
21st Field AF Construction Battalion
56th JNAF AF Unit
Maizuru 4th SNLF /1

Defending units:
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
28th (East African) Brigade
37th Infantry Div /1


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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Mar 25, 44

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Amphibious Assault at Shimushiri-jima (132,51)

TF 43 troops unloading over beach at Shimushiri-jima, 132,51


Allied ground losses:
254 casualties reported
Squads: 26 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 18 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 18 (7 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (5 destroyed, 2 disabled)



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Ground combat at Shimushiri-jima (132,51)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 3096 troops, 26 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 124

Defending force 50321 troops, 936 guns, 1564 vehicles, Assault Value = 2158

Japanese ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Assaulting units:
74th Infantry Regiment
12th Naval Construction Battalion
Western Army
37th JNAF AF Unit

Defending units:
147th(Sep) Infantry Rgt /1
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
Provisionl Tank Brigade
22nd Marine Regiment
158th(Sep) Infantry Rgt /1
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cav Div /2
1st Marine Div /2
XXI Corps Engineer Battalion
22nd (East African) Brigade
766th Tank Battalion
102nd Combat Engineer Regiment
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
1st USMC Tank Battalion
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
53rd (Sep) Infantry Rgt /1
134th Field Artillery Battalion
RAF 225 Group Base Force /2
114th RN Base Force
198th Cst AA Rgt /1
C Det USN Port Svc
154th FA Bn
A Det USN Port Svc
XIV US Corps /1
15th Marine Defense Battalion
98th Field Artillery Battalion
11th Marine Defense Battalion
249th Field Artillery Battalion
228th USN Base Force /5
183rd USAAF Base Force
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
147th Field Artillery Regiment
229th USN Base Force /5


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Ground combat at Uruppu-jima (130,52)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 304 troops, 7 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 35

Defending force 33548 troops, 509 guns, 888 vehicles, Assault Value = 1246

Japanese ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Assaulting units:
Karafuto Mixed Bde /1
67th JAAF AF Bn
Sasebo 6th SNLF /1
21st Field AF Construction Battalion
56th JNAF AF Unit
Maizuru 4th SNLF /1

Defending units:
2nd Marine Div /4
14th Canadian Bde /1
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
131st Combat Engr Rgt /1
28th (East African) Brigade
37th Infantry Div /1
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
364th(Sep) Infantry Rgt /1
159th USA Base Force /3
163rd USA Base Force /2
109th Tank Attack Regiment
1905th EAB /1
28th USN Naval Const Rgt /3
14th USN Naval Construction Battalion
12th Marine Def Bn /1
184th USAAF Base Force /3
21st USN Naval Const Rgt /3
3rd Marine Def Bn /1
131st Field Artillery Battalion
Sixth US Army /2
Thirteenth USAAF /4
177 Wing
18th USN Naval Construction Battalion
860/865th EAB /2
158th(Sep) Infantry Rgt /4





Edited to cut the boring part....No enemy bombardment at Etorofu....[:)]

[GreyJoy]

Softening Shimushiri Jima...

[Cribtop]

Three islands is good, IMHO. They will mutually support but should not be biting off more than you can chew. Quite a coup and a game changer if managed correctly.

[obvert]

WOW!!!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Three islands is good, IMHO. They will mutually support but should not be biting off more than you can chew. Quite a coup and a game changer if managed correctly.

Best ones to get as well. This is a certain game changer. It looks like a master stroke and that he had very few defenses prepared up there. With the Nates and A6M2 groups, it looks like these are all of his training units.

There is no way he'll get those islands back. He may be able to fight you to resupply them, but this is a strong foothold in the most dangerous territory.

[Canoerebel]

Look at the forces landed!  Magnificent!
 
Undoubtedly, Rader is quaking in his boots anyway at this point, but to look at the lineup and see forces from the United States, Great Britain, New Zealand, Canada, and Africa (!) will really send him spinning!
 
No comment from him, eh?  Man, I wish he was still posting his AAR!

[GreyJoy]

Ok, here's the first piece of this story...



So…it’s not going to be easy to reconstruct the root of this operation.
Everything started when in October 43, immediately after the conquest of Auki and PM.
Rader reacted very quickly to those setbacks. He started to evacuated everything south of Shortland, right under my nose, and move thousands of troops to NG (Lae, Salamua etc etc).
As you remember i was hoping to catch him off balance in NG with a rapid advance to PM and from there to Buna but the total control of the air space by Rader forced me to slow down my advance, both in the SOlomons and in NG (no long leg amphib landings possible, only short jumps in the SOlomons) – remember that Rader used to keep his KB plus 1500 LBA in the area at that time – and by the time i was able to move towards Salamua, the door was well closed by several thousands japanese men. Same went for the Solomons where Rader was able, despite the losses, to pull out all his combat forces and reinforce Bouganville so to have more than 140k men divided in the three bases that form Bouganville (Shortland, Torokina and Buka).
In India we faced the same problem. Multan was a bottleneck that used to forbid me to advance any further.
The coast of India was a nest of Netties and Diego and Scodra were strongly held by several inj units

…So i was in the mud.
I was fighting, Yes i was...And some battles went really well (several air battles won and we attrited down a lot the IJN navy, especially during the battles around Tulagi)…but i wasn’t going any further...not a decent speet anyway.

As many of you pointed out during those days, i was dancing at Rader’s pace. He was clearly willing to concede me space for time…and for every inch gained i had to risk a lot of precious assets… while there were still several thousands miles of safety for IJN armies before i could get any closer to Japan.

…i understood i needed to do something…but what?

I scouted among all the different options…a landing in the coast of India to bypass Multan bottleneck, a landing at Diego followed up by an invasion of Sumatra…a penetration in southern DEI-SRA? An invasion of western NG? The Mariannas? A Centpac route? Paramushiro and Nopac?
…Every single way seemed covered by Rader’s assets....

Bullwinkle, CR, CRsutton and many others pointed out that my time was running up…i was losing the war even if my odds were getting better…too cautious…too methodic…

So i decided to do something. It took me a whole Sunday to put togheder in a single word file all my a-sigin reports. Once tied togheder i started to scout among those files for a possible target… i needed a target not so obvious…and at the same time i needed to find a target that could turn the fate of this war…

The most obious way was southern DEI…Rader hadn’t fortified yet at that moment(only Timor had a decent garrison) but AFs were built up at maximum everywhere and clearly he was just waiting for me to show some interest in the area before sending in reinforcements…and with all those nice AFs would have been easy for him to overwhelm me in the air whatever i would have brought in.

CR many times talked about Paramushiro and NOPAC… cool i said, let’s take a look… Paramushiro had 2 full Bdes, CD guns and AA units…AF 6… Onnekotan Jiima AF 7 and a division plus several minor units… Then Rader had in fall 43 a strong presence of air search and bombers in the area… no way i could get there…

But then i took a deeper look… the Kuriles were fortified only in their eastern side i noticed. From Para to Shimushiri…nothing more…going west from Shimushiri my intel said there was nothing of any combat value…Uruppu, Etorofu…almost empty…

I had several recon PB4Ys during 43 operating from Attu Island…and several subs hunting his regular shipping traffic from okkaido to Paramushiro…usual stuff…
All my eggs were in SOPAC…and i was showing them all to Rader…

Then i decided….western Kuriles would have been my objectives for 1944.
But how to?
How to get there unseen?
How to force Rader not to reinforce them?
How to get him off balance?
How to avoid the dreaded KB+LBA combo?

…The idea sprung into my mind by the beginning of Nov 1943…"let’s make an enormous feint.!"

Rader is sensitive for what concerns DEI…he has suffered Jzanes’s advance there in his other game and for sure he will be fully prepared to counter that kind of threat….let’s make him believe i’m going there!

So i started to pull out slowly every single major unit i had in the Solomons, leaving the NG forces there to show my interest for that theatre. I pulled out everything except for 2 US Corps (4 Divisions) and some secondary units (Infantry Rgts and Tank Bns), along with some combat Engineers…those left there should have sustained my further advance till Chiuseul (Rekata Bay, Munda and Panggoe), keeping Rader believe that i was fully concentrated on that theatre.

I then started to move out all my transport ships (APA, AKA, LST etc etc), leaving behing 150 xAPs/xAKs and some Aux vessels that would have carried on the next advances towards Munda, Rekata and Chiuseul, but above all, making a lot of noise, keeping on moving around and showing themselves...

At the same time I decided not to strip a single air unit from this theatre….if I needed to keep Rader believe that my focus was here I had to leave my favoured asset (air force) in the theatre.
My combat ships (BBs, CLs, CAs, CVs etc) were left there till the very last moment (mid feb 44), moving around the Solomons, attacking sometimes his isolated garrisons at Russell and Thousands…and showing themselves!

Before leaving we managed to achieve the great victory of Panggoe when we sunk the Yamato and Haruna…enough to prove him that we were there in force!

…but the problem was that Rader would have seen that a lot of troops were missing…sooner or later he would have… so I needed to make another feint to make him believe I was going elsewhere.

I ordered to my recon and naval search to stop doing any mission in NOPAC and moved lots of recon planes to NW OZ…also a lot of eng units were moved to build Exmouth, Port Hedland, Broome, Derby etc….from there I started to long range recon Sosarbaja, Makassar, Menado, Kendari, Timor etc etc….and I got Rader’s full attention! He soon started to move lots of reinforcements to this area…LCUs, planes, ships…in 2 months every single base in southern DEI had at least 3 or 4 units…
Then he made his strange move in India by mid Feb 44….and then I was sure he was going to relocate all those forces to DEI-SRA…the more I moved my assets in northern Oz and the more Rader kept on moving his assets to southern DEI…

I was very carefull not to do anything in the Aleutinas…anything that could turn on the light on NOPAC...

.....................to be continued....

[SoliInvictus202]

glad you pulled that off - really impressive! - I can just say that if you have the Kuriles - and then move on to Hokkaido (I took Hokkaido first, but that was obviously a totally different situation) you will bomb Japan into dust - nothing he can do about it!

my VP count went from 20000 to 65000 within 4 months of bombing... only using fire bombing collateral damage mostly....

[Canoerebel]

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[obvert]

Well played. You used his overconfidence against him very well. Once you started reconning NO PAC at all he should have built everything and added tons of troops. He just assumed you would have to take the Eastern portion.

This is a good lesson for us all I think. Never trust GreyJoy again![:D]

[crsutton]

Greyjoy,

"The hunter has been captured by the game"

Nice work. You have a lot of fighting ahead but I think he is going to have to face you with KB there or all is lost for him.

[jeffk3510]

Very nice GreyJoy.

[jonreb31]

Well done GreyJoy, you turned this game upside down in a split instant.. all of a sudden the Emperor is on the front line. Curtis LeMay's B-29s will only need to fly less than half the distance to Japan compared to their historical positions in the Marianas.

[String]

I suspect the next few months will be brutal. Raders reaction will, or rather, must be, violent and he must go all out. If you manage to secure this foothold you can expand it and then he is finished. He does have a few advantages. First he has large airfields on both sides of your landings, which, coupled with the fact that most of your fighters probably don't have the range to rotate in and out, means that he does have a chance of gaining air superiority. The second main advantage for him is that your supply lines will be utterly open. You have no LBA search to cover the gap (atleast i think you don't) and he can use his carriers and surface ships to wreak havoc unless you escort all your convoys with your carriers, which will, naturally, tie your carriers down.

[GreyJoy]

String is right. Next months will be brutal and, above all, will possibly see the annihilation of my armoured forces.
 
But we came here for dancing...and we will dance till the very last note

[pws1225]

I'm curious about something GJ. How far ahead did you begin reconning your targets? A few days, a week, or just go in blind?

[crsutton]

He is right. Both sides have a vested interest in a carrier fight now. You to protect your line of supply and Rader in a fight for his life.

One other point. Canoerebel made a large invasion along the same lines in his old game vs John3rd. back in the WITP days. It failed and he lost a lot of men. However, the failed attack opened up the whole map and he was able to exploit this as John had no choice but to commit all of his resources to the attempt to drive Canoerebel out. For this reason alone. GJs attack is a good one. And he brought a lot more toys to the party than Canoerebel did.

[Canoerebel]

Actually, my invasion succeeded.    It was very bloody, and the Allies didn't hold the original objective (Hokkaido), but did end up with ironclad holds on both Sikhalin Island bases and one or two of the Kuriles.  It was, as crsutton noted, a game changer.
 
As important as GJ's move is from an offensive standpoint, it will be equally important from a defensive standpoint.  As others are pointing out, rader will have to react violently.  He apparently has been totally surprised and will be under great stress to immediately orchestrate something - anything - everything - to stop GJ.  That is a pressure-cooker environment in which mistakes are very likely to be made on a massive scale.  So, at the same time GJ is establishing very strong holds right in the enemy's vitals, he should get good whacks at enemy aircraft and capital ships.
 
Rader has to throw everything into this battle.  He will get in his share of licks.  But that GJ has apparently achieved Strategic, operational, and tactical suprise are very good omens for him. 

[Nemo121]

When one commits a coup de main one should take care not to settle for operational goals but rather strategic goals.

3 islands is operationally significant but not strategically decisive.

In any strategic coup de main there is an initial operational phase.... followed by the truly decisive strategic phase.


Strategic Bombing:
If done right strategic bombing can knock Japan out of the war in weeks, not months. At low level during the daytime it is utterly devastating. Far, far too devastating compared to real life actually. I speak here as someone who HR'ed this while playing as Japan and Allies in 1944/45 so I've seen both sides of this coin.


pws,
Recon, literally, about two days before landing. Prior to that it was all SIGINT ( so as to avoid tipping of hands ).


GJ,
Small tip. If you set CAP over your CVs at 40% but let them fly a strike mission the other 60% of fighters will go off escorting the strike. End result only 40% of your fighters are on CAP and your CVs get slaughtered.

So, rotate the CV TFs you let launch ground attacks. So if you have 4 TFs let one launch ground strikes each day so that the other 3/4 will still have all fighters available for CAP. Also, 1 CV TF + the CVEs ( or actually just the CVEs alone really ) should be more than enough to suppress his small ground forces.

So far so good but don't forget, you've just achieved an operational victory so far. The next 4 to 6 days will determine whether you can transition this into a strategic victory.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: pws1225

I'm curious about something GJ. How far ahead did you begin reconning your targets? A few days, a week, or just go in blind?

I started to recon his bases right last turn...Nemo is right then: only SIGIN reports till that moment...almost blind