Death Ride to Russia: Q-Ball (Axis) v smokindave(Sov). 1.05 beta

[Q-Ball]

T39: 3/12/42

I forgot to take screen shots, so no pretty pictures this turn, but a quick summary.

Donbas:

All of those pockets along the Oskol, amazingly, held. I am certain that if Bletchley Geek had a Tank Corps or two he could have re-established contact, particularly with the 2 northern groups, but I guess I routed out so many units he just didn't have the MPs to flip the two hexes he needed to in order to get that done.

As a result, 23 units were destroyed, and 120,000 POWs hit the cages. That alone makes this Snow Offensive worthwhile!

OREL:

Up here, my initial optimism/concern about how easy it would be to push around the Soviets in 1942 has given way to reality. B-G had reserves lurking right behind Orel, he must have been expecting an attack. Guards formations came out of the mist and pushed back 2 of my Panzer Divisions, causing alot of Tank Losses.

I have decided to basically halt up here, and consolidate; if I can't pocket anyone, I don't want to grind my Mobile formations up now, not when I need them later on to make things mobile.

We did kill a bunch of Reds up here, but this part of the offensive was not terribly successful. We did clear the Russians back from our rail line, and have a defensible position for 1942 along some rivers.

Next Steps and Reserves:

I am almost done bringing 4th Panzer Army to the Donbas; didn't have the rail capacity until now.

Elsewhere, I am attempting to re-build Wehrmacth morale by intentionally stacking low-morale infantry units on winning attacks. In this way, a few Infantry divisoins are already moving up through the 60s in Morale, and I want to get them to 70 for the long-haul.

Replacements are dear, though, so only Divisions in the SOUTH are going to be at 100% TOE, and have any chance at REFIT.

[M60A3TTS]

This was as good a time as any to hit him for some quick losses via pockets since the Soviet can't start building tank corps until April.

[veji1]

So what's the timetable for the offensive ? Are you going to use the Don as to cover your north flank, basically heading straight for it and then racing along it until you smash the bend or staying further south ?

[Peltonx]

I would be interested in what the combat ratios are and loses.

Mainly when attacking odds are in the 6-4 to 1 range.

Also what the ratio is when you are forsed to retreat.

Post 1.05 the ratio's seem must more even 1.5 to 1 or less when you win. Pre 1.05 the ratio was 2.5 to 1 when the odds were in the 6-4 to 1 range.

tm.asp?m=2942809&mpage=4&key=

You will have to filter out the quick change the subject posts. Basicly "if" your seeing a low ratio throw up a few pictures of the combat pictures, thanks.

Very nice offensive. Even if the odds are allot less now which they seem to be if your able to pocket units it pushs the ratio above the 2.6 to 1 odds you need as German to make attack hurt the russian player.

Nice job.

Pelton

[Q-Ball]

T40-3/19/42: SNOW

The Snow Offensive continues; we pocketed another 17 units overall, and I expect that to hold. 8 of them are iron-clad surrounded.

This turn, we caused 55,000 Soviet casualties (no surrenders), and suffered about 35,000, including attrition.

To answer Pelton's question, I have not been keeping track of Combat Loss Ratios. I think it's tougher than 1941, but the Russians still get alot of losses when they rout.

OREL:

B-G must have been expecting an attack here, given the strength of his reserves up there. Progress is slow and bloody, and we are halting, after securing a bridgehead over a river there.

We didn't pocket anything, so I have to say 2nd Panzer's attack wasn't that successful.

BOGUCHAR SECTOR:

We pocket 9 units. I want to "Sell" B-G on a southern thrust toward Voronezh, to pull away reserves from Rostov area. I may launch a summer offensive here anyway, once Rostov is cleared. Voronezh is a logical target.

The other thing I can gain is anchoring part of my line on the DON, and holding it through Spring of 1943. That would help my defenses alot into 1944.

DONBAS:

8 Units are pocketed, or really more abandoned, by the Russians. We will clean them up next turn.

I will post more of an analysis of the SNOW offensive later, but so far I am pleased with the results. We should end-up destroying
around 40 units.

PS: I told Bletchley Geek that this AAR is "declassified" up through Page 4, so he can feel free to read it

[Klydon]

Not as juicy of a haul. Lot of brigades in those isolated stacks, but I guess you take what you can get.

Hopefully you have not blunted your sharp offensive divisions too badly with these attacks. They are sort of the warm up for when the good weather comes and you will need them more then.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Not as juicy of a haul. Lot of brigades in those isolated stacks, but I guess you take what you can get.

Hopefully you have not blunted your sharp offensive divisions too badly with these attacks. They are sort of the warm up for when the good weather comes and you will need them more then.

I should be fine for the Infantry and Motorized Divisions. I just need to manage REFIT to funnel replacements to those formations. If anything, some of my Infantry in the attack sectors gained some morale, which is good. I should be good there.

I do have an AFV replacement problem. I realize some say "Well, it's just old tanks you are clearing out", but beggars can't be choosers, and the 41-42 Wehrmacht are beggars when it comes to AFV numbers. At the moment, I am at about 2100; I've been treading water there since the end of last summer.

My TANK numbers still include 270 38(t)s and 40 PzIIIes (the 37mm version), and even 12 PzI! Of course, we also have IIIjs and other somewhat newer types, but I would take more 38(t)s if they were available. Anything will do.

The TOE's expand for all the Motorized Divisions to include a Panzer Bn, but of course, there are no tanks available for that, so the net effect will be to just dilute AFV strength across a greater number of Mobile units. The best feature of the Mot Divs as-is is that they can rebuild losses just by being on REFIT, which the Panzer Divisions can do only to the extent that AFVs are in the pool. But they hardly ever are.

So, although I can get men in line for Summer, I am concerned about Tanks. Production spikes a bit in May-June with PzIII and PzIV both in peak production, but that doesn't last long. STUG numbers seem to hold-up, but you never, ever, have enough Marders.

Not much I can do about it though.

RE: HAUL: There are some divisions under the Brigades. But it's not huge, I agree. The Russians can afford to lose some counters, particularly the TANK BRIGADES; Soviets have more of those than they can really support.

[wadortch]

Hello Q-Ball
I am interested in what your Air Doctrine settings are?
Thanks!

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Not as juicy of a haul. Lot of brigades in those isolated stacks, but I guess you take what you can get.

Hopefully you have not blunted your sharp offensive divisions too badly with these attacks. They are sort of the warm up for when the good weather comes and you will need them more then.

I should be fine for the Infantry and Motorized Divisions. I just need to manage REFIT to funnel replacements to those formations. If anything, some of my Infantry in the attack sectors gained some morale, which is good. I should be good there.

I do have an AFV replacement problem. I realize some say "Well, it's just old tanks you are clearing out", but beggars can't be choosers, and the 41-42 Wehrmacht are beggars when it comes to AFV numbers. At the moment, I am at about 2100; I've been treading water there since the end of last summer.

My TANK numbers still include 270 38(t)s and 40 PzIIIes (the 37mm version), and even 12 PzI! Of course, we also have IIIjs and other somewhat newer types, but I would take more 38(t)s if they were available. Anything will do.

The TOE's expand for all the Motorized Divisions to include a Panzer Bn, but of course, there are no tanks available for that, so the net effect will be to just dilute AFV strength across a greater number of Mobile units. The best feature of the Mot Divs as-is is that they can rebuild losses just by being on REFIT, which the Panzer Divisions can do only to the extent that AFVs are in the pool. But they hardly ever are.

So, although I can get men in line for Summer, I am concerned about Tanks. Production spikes a bit in May-June with PzIII and PzIV both in peak production, but that doesn't last long. STUG numbers seem to hold-up, but you never, ever, have enough Marders.

Not much I can do about it though.

RE: HAUL: There are some divisions under the Brigades. But it's not huge, I agree. The Russians can afford to lose some counters, particularly the TANK BRIGADES; Soviets have more of those than they can really support.

Your having the same issue I posted about a month or so ago.

You sit and sit and sit an the tank numbers go down, up down sideways and then up.

Basicly your not going to have crp for tank numbers, once the production picks up you have been attacking for several turns. So feel lucky if you hit 2600 and it stays there for summer.

This is why I am tring to save the mech divisions and some high moral infantry divisions during Blizzard. The panzer divisions are next to usless during the 42 summer.

I would only turn on refit on the highest 2 moral panzer divisions. Fillem up and work my way down the list after the mech units are topped off which only takes a turn or 2.

The weak ones can be used to help infantry units hold open flanks or as a reserve to make sure you good units dont get cut off.

[Klydon]

Yeah, that is pretty much the same way I am headed for mobile units in 1942 for the Germans as well. (Use mobile divisions with support units as main force vs panzer divisions). The Panzer divisions just lose too many tanks too fast and they don't get replaced. They become fairly brittle, so you have to be careful with them and of course, the Russians are going to try to jump all over them since any combats they are involved in usually represent the loss of a good number of tanks.

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

This is why I am tring to save the mech divisions and some high moral infantry divisions during Blizzard. The panzer divisions are next to usless during the 42 summer.

Not useless now since 1:1 rule went. Good for my Pacman strategy at least.

[Q-Ball]

3-26-42: Last Turn of SNOW:

The 4 Turns of Snow Offensive are over. Overall, I am pleased with the results, though if it wasn't for the POWs and destroyed units, it would have been a failure in terms of losses. Mine were not inconsequential, particularly in tanks.

Over the Don:

This turn, we liquidated all the pockets from last turn, and the most important thing that happened is that we secured a bridgehead over the Don near Rostov.

This is important, because that River is a considerable barrier when it thaws, and having a foothold means I should be able to get across easily. I don't think he can dislodge me this turn, and after that, it's 4 turns of MUD, at the end of which I should be well dug-in.

The only downside to this: Moving out of that bridgehead is completely obvious move in the spring. So, Bletchley Geek willl probably have alot of guys there, and make me smash through it. Oh well, price of progress.

Russian Counterattacks:

Further North, the Russians lauched several successful counterattacks, pushing my infantry units. Very good job on B-G's part, this forced a halt north of Voroshilovgrad, and means I have to cover my advances a bit better.

Earlier counterattacks meant I halted around Orel. If I can't surround units, there is no profit in continuting attacking.

Morale Building:

I did launch several attacks whose sole purpose was to build morale; stacks of 60-ish morale infantry, pushing Soviet stacks, gaining morale in the process (and bleeding his). Losses weren't great, but I think you have to do this in order to re-build German morale.

Speaking of which, in the future I would recommend to any German player to leave the SS outside for Blizzard. Those units recovered morale into the high-90's already, they recover very quickly. Quick REFIT, and you are back up to speed. I would use them ahead of regular Wehrmacht formations.

[Klydon]

Depending on what he does, working around the Don could be extremely helpful to you in guarding your flanks, especially if he stays inside the bend like that. It reduces the area where the Russians can counter attack your units by a lot as they can't really effectively attack across a major river against good units and even if they can, they likely won't have anyone with the movement to take advantage of it. Your big thing is to get some infantry across the river to help out.

I think you have also succeeded on a strategic level in that you have created a couple of soft spots in his line that he won't be able to fortify very well. He has a couple of spots to watch, not just one.

The Russian army looks sort of weak from the numbers of men and also tanks. A lot of those tanks are still probably light tanks as well, but that will be changing rapidly.

Great job on surviving the winter. The Germans are weak in tanks, but otherwise look really good. (Historically, they are very strong for tanks as the Germans had 150 something operational tanks on the entire front in March 42. I don't think it is possible in game terms to go from that to the 3k tanks by the time of Operation Blue).

[Q-Ball]

T-41: MUD

Good feedback Klydon; I think I had a good March offensive, and acheived my objectives: Kill Russians, and set myself up for Spring.

The Wehrmacht is in better shape than I could have hoped so far, though as you say, AFVs are a constant problem (there is no way, IMO, for the Germans to get to 3,000 AFVs by Summer of 1942, without sitting out part of summer 1941). I have really tried to baby my Panzer formations, but it's impossible to keep from losing tanks.

Most of my veteran infantry is 20-40% below TOE, but not much I can do about that.

We now have 5 turns of MUD, and the question is how to use those single CLEAR turns. I am hesitant to create large pockets during those turns, as active Russians can easily break them, then you are really screwed for the Mud. (BTW, because of that, this is the last non-random weather game I will play).

Expanding the bridgehead over the Don is one obvious move during those CLEAR turns, but otherwise, not sure what to do. Probably just blow-up some trenches, and push him back.

Plans:

I am not posting a MAP, because not much is going on. I hold the 2-hex bridgehead over the DON, and I won't be pushed out of it. I moved some Infantry over, so it's rock-solid at this point. That is a good thing, as the River melts behind me.

The HUNGARIAN 2nd army will move to the KURSK sector in front of Voronezh, to take over some frontage. I am also forming 3rd Romanian Army (by adding an Infantry Corps, and keeping the Mountain Corps) around Belgorod, to fill in the gaps of 6th Army sector, and make 6th Army more "Offensive". 4th Romanian Army is guarding the Crimean Exits (with support from a German Corps).

At the moment, my Panzers are concentrated near Voronezh, Orel, and the Donbas. I plan to move them more to the Donbas come summer, but I don't want to move everyone wholesale yet, because that will tip my hand.

I am also shifting more Infantry from 6th and 17th Army, to give me "slots" for the fresh infantry divisions that are coming in the next couple months. I want to have the FRESH ones available for offensive, so they can take losses. Divisions that are somewhat depleted are going to quiet sectors, like the FAR NORTH (where most of the FInnish Army is in the process of being relieved).

I am trying to keep Army HQs from getting overloaded, and barely doing it in the South, mostly by transferring Germans to Finnish command, and overloading 16th, 18th, and 9th Armies. Not sure what I'll do when 11th Army goes away; maybe De-Panzer 4th Panzer. 3rd Panzer Army is already 3 Infantry Corps, and 1 Panzer Division.

[Joel Billings]

Q-Ball, did you use the multiple FBD units repairing the same rail line technique in this game? I see a few believe the bug fix that eliminated this will hurt the Germans in 41 and am curious if you used it.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

Q-Ball, did you use the multiple FBD units repairing the same rail line technique in this game? I see a few believe the bug fix that eliminated this will hurt the Germans in 41 and am curious if you used it.

Joel;

No, I did not use that tactic. In fact, I ended up disbanding an FBD unit on Turn 12, because I started to remove Construction Units from it to see how it affected repairs. It didn't, until you remove the very last one.....at which point, it was a useless unit. So I disbanded it!

Pretty stupid on my part, but at this point, 4 is enough FBDs, so my little experiment didn't have a long-term impact. But if anything, not only was I not HELPED by the bug, I didn't even have 5 FBDs for awhile, and this hurt most in the DONBAS region, where I was halted by lack of fuel, not the Russians.

Hope that helps....

[ComradeP]

Speaking of which, in the future I would recommend to any German player to leave the SS outside for Blizzard. Those units recovered morale into the high-90's already, they recover very quickly. Quick REFIT, and you are back up to speed. I would use them ahead of regular Wehrmacht formations.

It would depend on whether they're really needed, as leaving them "outside" would still mean they take blizzard attrition, but their national morale is 95 in 1942 (and the morale can then increase by 1-3 points or the like in the first battle if it's at 95, because the morale gain slows down when you're over and not at the national morale). 70+ 10 (German mobile unit)+15 (SS elite)=95.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Speaking of which, in the future I would recommend to any German player to leave the SS outside for Blizzard. Those units recovered morale into the high-90's already, they recover very quickly. Quick REFIT, and you are back up to speed. I would use them ahead of regular Wehrmacht formations.

It would depend on whether they're really needed, as leaving them "outside" would still mean they take blizzard attrition, but their national morale is 95 in 1942 (and the morale can then increase by 1-3 points or the like in the first battle if it's at 95, because the morale gain slows down when you're over and not at the national morale). 70+ 10 (German mobile unit)+15 (SS elite)=95.

I should have clarified: If you need a Mobile unit, use the SS first. Because even if you burn them out, you can build them back up quickly before Blizzard. By all means, don't leave them outside if they are not needed. But I don't think you can go all Winter without using mobile units somewhere.

The NM levels are key; as the Germans, once a Panzer unit dips below 79, you may as well keep using it outside if you need to, because you can get that morale back. It's the Morale points over 80 that are precious, and cannot be recovered as easily.

For my campaign, this means I had two types of Panzer Formations at the end of Blizzard: The "Haves", who were 85+ morale with full Tank TOE's, and the "Have Nots", who had fought outside all winter, and had morale in the 70s, and depleted AFVs.

You answered a question in my mind though: the SS bonus is cumulative with the mobile bonus. Good to know.

I am OK with that, because the SS was always given the cream of the crop in terms of replacements, and always maintained a high readiness, even among "green" SS formations (I am think of 12ss Panzer in Normandy, which was technically "Green", but performed at very high level). That means that SS Mobile Formations in 1944 will still have a NM of 85.

[ComradeP]

That means that SS Mobile Formations in 1944 will still have a NM of 85.

No, and this is very important to note: only SS elite mobile formations. That means all elite SS divisions you start with (which convert to Panzer divisions eventually), and Hohenstaufen, Frundsberg and Hitlerjugend. The SS have no elite Panzergrenadier divisions (aside from LSSAH, Das Reich, Totenkopf, Wiking for a while, before they become Panzer divisions). Basically: if it's a Panzer division by/in 1944, it's elite, otherwise it isn't.

I'm not entirely sure why Hohenstaufen and Frundsberg are elite when they first arrive considering that they have just been sitting in Belgium and France for about a year without actually being in combat prior to arriving on the Eastern Front, but it's currently the case.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

That means that SS Mobile Formations in 1944 will still have a NM of 85.

No, and this is very important to note: only SS elite mobile formations. That means all elite SS divisions you start with (which convert to Panzer divisions eventually), and Hohenstaufen, Frundsberg and Hitlerjugend. The SS have no elite Panzergrenadier divisions (aside from LSSAH, Das Reich, Totenkopf, Wiking for a while, before they become Panzer divisions). Basically: if it's a Panzer division by/in 1944, it's elite, otherwise it isn't.

I'm not entirely sure why Hohenstaufen and Frundsberg are elite when they first arrive considering that they have just been sitting in Belgium and France for about a year without actually being in combat prior to arriving on the Eastern Front, but it's currently the case.

I did know that, I should have clarified: The ELITE SS units.

And, for that matter, the ELITE Wehrmacht mobile units, which I think is just GD Division. (Not sure if HG Panzer is considered "Elite" or not, but I think it should be)

I have no problem with 9ss and 10ss being "elite"; 12ss was "green" when it was committed in Normandy, and it fought very well.

The only other formation I wondered about was 11ss Div Nordland; I suppose it's debateable, but I thought that one should be Elite. But I can see arguments the other way.