An Occasional AAR: Q-Ball v JAMiAM (No Jam)

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
Edit to add comment regarding reserves:

If there is an F.R. there is only room for 2 ID's and per Flaviusx' experiences , that is not enough to keep the German below 2:1. So the leader should have a high Initiative rating to get reserves to the battle.

Well, as soon as the FR has done its job one just disbands it. The point is that its job is done before the Germans reach the Neva, isn't it?

[gingerbread]

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
Edit to add comment regarding reserves:

If there is an F.R. there is only room for 2 ID's and per Flaviusx' experiences , that is not enough to keep the German below 2:1. So the leader should have a high Initiative rating to get reserves to the battle.

Well, as soon as the FR has done its job one just disbands it. The point is that its job is done before the Germans reach the Neva, isn't it?

Well, my original idea had the F.R. still in the hex to provide more artillery via attachments. One or two more 120mm Mortars due to their high ROF and blast value. But now I'm not sure.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
Edit to add comment regarding reserves:

If there is an F.R. there is only room for 2 ID's and per Flaviusx' experiences , that is not enough to keep the German below 2:1. So the leader should have a high Initiative rating to get reserves to the battle.

Well, as soon as the FR has done its job one just disbands it. The point is that its job is done before the Germans reach the Neva, isn't it?

Well, my original idea had the F.R. still in the hex to provide more artillery via attachments. One or two more 120mm Mortars due to their high ROF and blast value. But now I'm not sure.

That's something I've been toying with on my mind for some time. But it would feel to me as to "game" a bit the fact that certain weapon platforms are übermodeled at the moment by the Tactical Combat system. On the other hand, I'm not sure of what happens to SU's attached to units that get a SURRENDER combat result. If they surrender along with the parent combat unit, that would make it "fair play" to my eyes, since it would be betting your AP's and risk to lose them in the process.

[gingerbread]

I assume they would surrender as well. If a turn is to be bought, I expect to have to pay. But a 120mm Mortar battalion (not reg, sorry) is not so expensive - 350 ARM and 350 MP.

[Mike13z50]

I hope you try it and see if it works. It would be nice to have a reason to keep FR instead of just disbanding them. They are supposed to represent strong points with blockhouses and pillboxes. Instead they are treated like a contract engineer company, hired to do the job then goes away.

[gingerbread]

An F.R. has very little in the way of CV, so it's probably better to disband it. They cost rather more in ARM than the mortars so they are not cost efficient for their combat value. But I agree that it would be better if they contributed enough to make it worthwhile to keep them.

[Q-Ball]

Wow, huge discussion up there! I should have put a couple units on Ostinovets to build that fort as well. Lesson learned; dumb on my part.

T7: July 31, 1941:

This was a good turn for the Fascists. I am getting pressed in several areas, and the fact that JAMiAM is a more experienced player than I is showing. I hope I can make him sweat in this one, but so far, it's one-sided.

The only silver lining is that his tank losses look very high. I know they are up with the latest changes, but he is losing nearly 200 tanks a turn, which is an extreme pace. During his phase, he lost 100 tanks this turn, but my counterattacks killed another 85. I have been purposely targeting Panzers, because if you make a Panzer Division retreat, it sheds all it's damaged tanks, which is alot typically. The German OOB is already down to 1440 undamaged Tanks, and he has lost 1,531 so far. Is my optimism here misplaced? Is that typical?

Otherwise, I am getting smoked.

Reserves:

I am trying very hard to keep some units in reserve for Winter, and also as diggers. I am leaving a unit in all major cities, and I have some reserves around Kharkov, Stalino, and of course, Moscow. You can see some on the map.

I am trying to keep my Cavalry out of harms' way to form Cav Corps in Winter. I am also trying to preserve the MOUNTAIN units, as they get a morale bonus, are useful in winter, and you can't build more. Looking way ahead, also useful in the Carpathians. If we get that far.

I am also trying to keep Motorized Divisions out of harm's way temporarily to save the trucks. I can't wait for these to flip-over to Rifle units.

Of course, all this is very tough if you get desperate. These plans may fall apart, as I am forced to commit troops to action.

AGN:

Here is the worst of it. While JAM committed extra Panzers up here, and it is very telling, I think his strategy is to get Leningrad done quickly, then shift everyone to Moscow. I think that is smart. It also makes sense, because Panzers can actually get fuel up there in turns 7-10 without an issue, so they can do more damage up North.

At this rate, I may lose Leningrad by turn 10. It takes 2 turns or so to shift Mobile units to Moscow, so he will have a whole month with 3 Panzer groups in the Center. Not good. The only silver lining is that he'll probably lose 100 tanks just making the shift to the South.

Anyway, I may copy this strategy next time I play Germans; extra Panzer Corps up north.

We did get one good attack in this turn up there.

AGC:

Here, he is pushing straight forward, mostly with infantry, routing many units, and winning almost every combat.

He isolated Smolensk, but we did manage to push a Mot Div and reestablish contact. Won't save the unit, but hopefully can slow him down a bit, and it's always good to push a mobile unit.

AGS:

Here, JAM focused almost everyone on one spot of the river; you can see all the infantry gathered to move over. I had a double-line of lvl 2 forts, but he got through my lines and over the river.

We did counterattack and pinch supplies to the spearhead, by pushing back a Panzer Division, and the Slovaks on the other side.

Industry Evacs:

I haven't lost anything major....yet. I know I will be pressed shortly, particularly if I lose Leningrad early, and lose the Railyards there.

Leningrad is cleaned of everything except Heavy Industry. The T-34s are gone from Kharkov, as well as the Armaments. Poltava, Kaluga, Bryansk, Orzhe-whatever, D-Town, Z-Town, are all arm-evacuated. I am leaving some small factories and not moving them.

I need to work on the Armaments in Staino and Tula next, followed by Moscow.

JAM is a very good player, and I could be looking at a runaway.

[Flaviusx]

Q-ball, that's the grinding you are seeing in the center. He did the exact same thing to me. No pocketing, just non stop attacking. This accomplishes a number of things:

1. Gives him easy morale boosts. (Especially for his infantry. He is very aggressive with his infantry and integrates them closely with his operations. James isn't a panzer pusher. He's combined arms. A lot of German players imo severely underestimate the importance of their infantry in 41.)

The loss ratios are so lopsidedly in the German favor that this kind of grinding pays. He will NOT attrit himself to death doing this in summer of 41. Watch your individual combats closely. And as the Soviet units get grinded down to a fine paste, the loss ratios will improve for him. You may want to break contact with his infantry at some point.

2. Lowers Soviet morale.

3. Prevents fortification.

These ceaseless grinding creates momentum for the Germans over the course of several turns.

He'll just harass them all the way to Moscow without giving them a rest. Then, he'll try concentric operations in the usual places. You are doing the right thing, however, in trying to form a line there, although he'll likely strike north and south of those places.

If he can get PG4 into the action early enough, things will get even worse. He's plainly setting himself up for the usual Neva crossing.

[Q-Ball]

His opening in the Center appears to be all about getting as much infantry as possible, as soon as possible, to the Landbridge. He blew away the Bialystok pocket, routing most of those units into the Pripet, rather than pocketing them.

The downside to that is more troops survive the Bialystok pocket. But:

1. The units that survive are low morale, and generally in terrible shape, and
2. You end up with 9th Army moving eastward alot quicker, and getting to the Landbridge a turn sooner

I think it's a sound strategy, because Infantry is more decisive than Panzers up there. In fact, Panzers run out of gas turn 3-5 in AGC, so there isn't a point to overloading AGC with Panzers. It's the Infantry. The fuel situation clears-up once you have rails approaching Vitebsk, around Turns 5-6.

I am a big beleiver in Wehrmacht Landsers. The Panzers should be mostly clearing hexes for them, but the Infantry really does all the heavy lifting.

PS: I am getting no help from the weather gods either; North Soviet and South Soviet already had mud turns, with almost no impact to German ops, because they didn't have major pushes there yet. The Mud came too early for me.

I need a Mud turn in Central Soviet soon, but it may be too late for Moscow

[gingerbread]

Sorry 'bout the hijack above - got carried away! Hopefully you got some benefit out if it.

I am also trying to keep Motorized Divisions out of harm's way temporarily to save the trucks. I can't wait for these to flip-over to Rifle units.

So what did you end up doing? Using the 75+% TOE to dig in the back is one idea, but then "you just need one good unit in this hex", and "oh, well..." [:)]
In the end, more trucks are probably saved by dis-engaging 10 or so wrecked Mot with TOE in the 20's.

[CarnageINC]

Late new commer here I see [8D]  Just to interject a few comments on the situation.  First off I know the pain of having two or more AAR's, especially when they have some quality efforts put into commentary, keep up the good AAR you have going with BG [;)].

I was wonder if JAM is committing extra panzers to the AGN area because he might feel a little insecure in his ability to take it quickly.  You never know Q, he might be sweating on his end trying to out maneuver you.

I commend both of you for taking the random weather option, it really adds some flavor to the beginning stages of the campaign.  Don't you feel that this setting will favor you in the long run by slowing down JAM's inf?

[Q-Ball]

Turn 8

OUCH!

JAMiAM formed a giant Kiev pocket on me. I didn't see it coming, as the spearheads before the turn were some 30-35 hexes apart. Quite a bit of ground to cover!

I would pray for a turn of RAIN, but unfortunately we are Godless Communists, so our prayers won't be answered.

If this keeps up, I will be recalled to Moscow for consultations.

We did counterattack 3 German Divisions and pus them back, but we need to re-think the extent to which we hang-in. The counterattacks last turn on either side of the Cherkassy bridgehead were one of the reasons I ended up stuck in this big pocket.

[modrow]

Q-Ball,

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I would pray for a turn of RAIN, but unfortunately we are Godless Communists, so our prayers won't be answered.

This one made me spill my coffee

Hartwig

[Q-Ball]

T9

The Kiev pocket was mostly liquidated; over 300,000 betrayed their motherland and surrendered. I have issued orders to send their virtual families to an off-map Gulag. TRAITORS!

Over 2 mil have bought the Collective Farm, brining our OOB to just over 4 mil. That is low!

The MAP below shows quite a bit.

Factory Evacs: JAM is not concentrating on Factories, and actually we have also been able to hold alot of rail centers pretty late, like D-Town, though our RAIP CAP will go down a bunch next turn when Leningrad is gone.

We have not lost a ton, and I have already moved all the truly important stuff, like T-34s, KV-1s, and IL-2s.

[Flaviusx]

James doesn't chase factories. Not his style.

The rail line conversions tell the story -- he is going all in on Moscow. The only question is: how does he intend to deploy PG4 against it. My guess is he will redeploy it near Smolensk and strike towards Rzhev with it. In my game he thrusted all the way to the Volga canal in an attempt at a northern pincer against Moscow.

The rest of AGC mobile units will presumably consolidate for a push towards Tula-Ryazan, and then cross the Oka, possibly leaving a residue to aid AGS.

He is surprisingly weak in mobile units down south. You might actually stall him on the lower Dnepr, although presumably he will bypass that and strike SE of Kharkov in the general direction of Stalino-Rostov. His logistics look rather sketchy down there.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

James doesn't chase factories. Not his style.

The rail line conversions tell the story -- he is going all in on Moscow. The only question is: how does he intend to deploy PG4 against it. My guess is he will redeploy it near Smolensk and strike towards Rzhev with it. In my game he thrusted all the way to the Volga canal in an attempt at a northern pincer against Moscow.

The rest of AGC mobile units will presumably consolidate for a push towards Tula-Ryazan, and then cross the Oka, possibly leaving a residue to aid AGS.

He is surprisingly weak in mobile units down south. You might actually stall him on the lower Dnepr, although presumably he will bypass that and strike SE of Kharkov in the general direction of Stalino-Rostov. His logistics look rather sketchy down there.

I'm sure he's going for Moscow, I agree, and I expect to see all of 4th Panzer there by Turn 11. That is a major problem.

I have committed troops, but I need to start building forts north and south of Moscow, particularly North, which seems to be an approach point. Almost everyone who takes Moscow does so by surrounding it, so the defenses in front of it are not terribly important. It's the stuff to the sides.

If he goes all-in, I think he can take it. This would be bad for me.

On the other hand, I also think you are right in the South, and I pointed that out in my shots: He is not at all focusing on clearing the SOUTH UKRAINE. I am holding fast at Nikolev, where it's mostly just Romanians. They will be pushed back, but it might be T-13 or so before he gets over the lower Dnepr, which is too late to do anything other than secure the Crimean exits.

He could go for Kharkov, but at the moment it's miles from the nearest railhead. The other factor is that early-on I sent alot of reinforcements down there, so I have decent strength in the South Ukraine.

Where I am most vulnerable is around Bryansk, through Tula; very weak, and he can get there too.

[Q-Ball]

T10

This game is moving at a snail's pace, due to JAMiaM's RL issues. I would like the pace to pick-up, but for now we're doing a turn a week. I hope it gets faster, as I would like to finish this game sometime in my lifetime!

At any rate, a relatively quiet turn; JAM finished cleaning-up the Leningrad and Kiev pockets, but no new ones were formed this turn. Methinks this is ominous, as he has had a couple Panzer units resting 2 turns in a row. I think he is building fuel reserves for a big push, and letting Infantry catch-up. I am worried.

MOSCOW:

JAM is going all-in on Moscow. I would really like to defend it, so I am also sending max reinforcements to this area.

I have 2 reserve armies in the immediate vicinity of the city, that have been digging and training for a few turns. These are my best troops. I am starting to also form reserves and dig on the flanks, as I think JAM will approach Moscow not directly from the east, but rather in a double-envelopment, with a Panzer Army leading the way on both arms.

I am more concerned with the NORTHERN pincer; even though the terrain is better, it's closer to the railhead, so pretty easy to supply for the Germans. With rails already to Smolensk, he won't have fuel issues.

The SOUTHERN one, though, can be dangerous, as the terrain up through Tula is very good for him. I am going to move a few units along the Oka, which is where you can stop this pincer, if I think ahead.

I will thin out my defenses in front of Vyazma. At the moment, he show little inclination to push directly east, so there is no need to strongly defend that axis.

In terms of factories, I have already moved the Li Transports, the IL-2s, and IL-4s. I want to keep Pe-2s in production a bit before trashing the factory, but I will move it as soon as I sniff Panzers. The T-40 factory or whatever is long gone.

I expect a huge battle for Moscow; I give myself a 50/50 I can hold it, despite the preparations, as he is going all-in.

Central Ukraine:

Further south, he has cleaned-up the Kiev pocket. We ROUTED a German Motorized Division, which is always nice, but kind of empty calories, as it will be back.

I still hold SUMY and POLTAVA, as his Panzers are all 25+ MPs from a railhead, and aren't moving real fast. I also have my best troops down here, as alot of the SW Front infantry I pulled back; several 3 and 4 CV infantry units.

I had to slide units north, though, to fill the big hole in my lines between Tula and Sumy. It's still thin there, I feel vulnerable, and it would be a huge problem if not for the fact that it's also a fuel black hole there for the Germans.

South:

JAM is committing strong to MOSCOW, and over the Dnepr, but there is a price to pay: He is getting behind in the south, big-time.

Around Nikolev, I am holding up the FBD repairs, and if I can do that another turn, it will really put him behind, and probably save the Donbas cities (until '42 anyway). I still hold D-Town and Z-town, and I don't see them falling before Turn 12 or 13, which is pretty far behind on the timetable. Without Panzers to somehow threaten me, I won't fall back to the German infantry.

I would like to hold a position north of the Crimea until Blizzard if I can, which would allow me to wreck havoc on this front during Blizzard.

[Peltonx]

Hold Leningrad as long as you possibly can. If you dont Moscow will fall for sure.

Most games around Moscow the Russian player does not have enough defences to north side of Moscow. 4th PZ almost always hits in this area.

This could be because thats the best way to play the terrain, but generally the way Moscow falls.

His panzer #'s are normal if your pushing forward hard to clear hexes for infantry. His mech units hit almost as hard and require next to nothing in tanks. Russian players spend to much time looking at tank numbers.
Hes probably going to deck out one infantry army hold it in reserver like I do.
Then grind you in front of Moscow then bring in a fresh 90+ morale army and kick in the door so to speak.

No hex on the board is safe from 90+ morale infantry divisions with engineers and allot of guns. German or Russian.

Pelton

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Pelton
His panzer #'s are normal if your pushing forward hard to clear hexes for infantry. His mech units hit almost as hard and require next to nothing in tanks. Russian players spend to much time looking at tank numbers.

I agree with you on this. Those numbers, aren't by any measure, a good indicator or how effective are German motorized units.