The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[Miller]

Nemo states that Rader might be producing 3000 fighters a month, that is highly unlikely. Maybe half that.

Why? This is scn 2, In which the Jap player pays a huge HI tax each month later in the game for the extra pilot training that comes with this scn. I realise he has banked extra HI points thanks to his conquests in India and China, but even so there is no way he can produce 3000 a month without bankrupting his economy. My guess is that Rader has been producing nothing other than fighters for the last 6 months or so. As there has never been a CV battle in this game he probably has enough naval TB and DB in the pools to last till 1955, likewise Nettys. Army bombers are pretty much useless at this stage of the game as well, apart from the torpedo carrying Ki-67.

It really boils my piss when people whine "Its scen 2 so they can produce unlimited planes/pilots forever" Its a lot more complicated than that!

[desicat]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

But the crucial part is that my CVs and CVEs started to moved back to US coast...escorting 730 ships....and Rader immediately spotted me and react violently...several subs are already spotted around my TFs...and i bet that tomorrow we'll have to fight against those damned pesky bastards again....as we did when our CVEs were transfered to SOPAC back in early 43....do you remember? 5 CVEs sunk in few days....[:@]

Now i've done my best to counter his pack wolves strategy...

My transports TFs have all PFs, SCs, DDs and some YMS with them. Every TF is following a ASW TF which is following a SCTF

Same for the CVEs and the CVs. They are organized following an ASW TFs that follows a SCTF...so that the latters should enter the hex for first and attack/get attacked earlier than the CV/CVEs....

my subs are creating a long range safety belt south and west of my ships...he cannot arrive with the KB unseen! (i hope so at least...)


....and when the KB arrives is there a plan? Only you know your force disposition but have you thought about hunting and trapping the KB, preventing it from getting in a first strike your convoy?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: hartwig.modrow

GreyJoy,

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
And no Hw...i'm not meta-gaming now. As Nemo pointed out there's no need anymore to do that... also because the "show" has already been given...no need to replicate[:D]

Here's a quote for you from Col. Glantz: "On this intense and fluid battlefield, advantage will go to the force that can shift and concentrate resources rapidly and secretly. Deception and surprise will condition success, which can only be achieved by an opportunistic and swift advance."

Just one more question before I revert back to read only mode: What could make you start meta-gaming again?

Hartwig

I didn't even know what meta-gaming was before nemo talked about it[:D]
I just felt i needed to do something out of the pattern in order to get the surprise over Rader...and i looked around for this opportunity...nothing more complicated than that[:)]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: tkbomber7285

Having read this entire thread, I have to say that I feel that Rader is still ahead in this game. That sounds crazy given GreyJoy's offensive in northern Japan, but the thing is that Rader has way more experience in the game then GreyJoy does. Not sure how often he has faced a player who made the move that GreyJoy did, probably never admittedly, but from what I've read of Rader's games if anyone has the strategy to take back Hokkaido it is him. This war is about to swing again into Rader's favor, and there is no way a second offensive like this will be allowed to happen.

Push me out of Okkaido? I have 1.2 millions supplies in Okkaido and more 600k among the Kuriles... i have placed a CD unit in every single base i have and every base has now at least 200 eng who are building forts.
He can bleed me to death using his air power (but he will bleed too!), i know, but i don't realisticly think he can push me out...not now...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

As re: sweep....

LRCAP number is proportional to the distance of the base AND the distance the fighter can fly to. That is why it is SOOOOO important to have your long-range fighters equipped with drop tanks and use them exclusively for these LRCAP missions. In those circumstances you can get very good results out to 10 hexes. YOu don't have anough of those fighters concentrated in the decisive theatre though. You should fix this.

Sweep remains the best solution for distant targets.

Perhaps. You don't have to waste your P-47s on sweeping Hakodate etc though. Also there's another argument to be had about whether or not you'll even need to sweep when you can mass 600 bombers.

With 600 4-engineds hitting a single target in a single day they'll damage and destroy so many fighters in the air and present so many targets that sheer weight of numbers will prevent the cumulative damage model from accumulating. I've written about how this interaction between fighter and bomber numbers affects 4-engined loss rates significantly before so I won't go into it again. You can read it in one of my late-war AARs if you want the background.

As re: the Rabaul example: Witpqs is right. The correct answer is those P-38s shouldn't be near Rabaul, they should be on Hokkaido.


Here's a suggestion:
Wait until you have your 600 4-engineds ( it shouldn't take you more than a week to gather them. They should be able to reach Hokkaido in 3 transits from anywhere on the map ) and a mass of P47s and P38s then pick ONE BASE to target. SWEEP the base with ALL of your P47s and P38s on the same day as you send in ALL the 4-engineds. If there are 200 fighter airframe factory points there split the bombers proportionally ( 3 bombers per fighter airframe factory point ).

Then watch what happens. When you look at your losses before you go "Oh my god I lost so many, I can't continue this" remember to factor in that this game may well go on for an additional 6 months ( it shouldn't but I think you are going to have difficulty figuring out how to finish Rader off quickly ). So, if you lose 60 bombers destroyed and 40 fighters in return for downing 20 enemy fighters you might think, "I've lost 100 planes vs 20, that's a disaster". Instead you should think.... "I've lost 100 vs 20 today BUT over the next 6 months he has lost the ability to produce ( for example ) 100 fighters per month ( if you damage 100 aircraft assembly points ). So, in total for 100 fighters and bombers I've removed 620 enemy fighters from the war over the next 6 months. WIN !!!! "

Eventually if you hit enough factories so that his total fighter production comes down from what must be about 3,000 fighters per month to something more like 1,000 fighters per month you'll begin seeing fewer fighters in the air and more scope for adding 2-engineds etc to the medium-range missions.

I think for what concerns the 4Es safety the third option is the best one...

No, the best option is to achieve concentration of force. You should read what I've written elsewhere about the interaction between bomber vs fighter ratios and the cumulative damage model of A2A warfare as it relates to high durability planes like 4-engineds. That would help you understand how to keep your 4-engineds safe.



Hakodate:
Fine, its your mistake to make. Not giving Rader an opportunity to waste ground forces and ships is a major mistake though. If you take Hokaido entirely ALL he can do with reinforcements is garrison the coast of Honshu ( whereas instead he shows every willigness to rush reinforcements north to Hokaido where you can butcher them easily ) - which you'll have to invade sooner or later. Your rush to take a meaningless base ASAP means you will be making your job in 2 to 3 months time much, much tougher. I've said it 3 times though so that's as far as I go.

I cannot strip every single recon squadron i have around the map and send it to Okkaido...i'd like my forces to remain balanced...

AN interesting quote. It starts off with "I cannot" and then ends with "I'd like". What that says is that you CAN but CHOOSE not to. Well, I suppose if you think those reconaissance planes are doing mroe important work over Calcutta than they could be doing in ending the war in 2 months over Honshu then you should keep them in over Calcutta. Obviously though if you believe the war will end quicker with them over Honshu than Calcutta then they shouldn't be in Calcutta.

Balance is something feng shui masters and scale makers need to worry about. In terms of strategy balance is just a good way to disperse your forces. Succesful forces eschew balance in favour of effectiveness.

Ok, i'm doing that. Transfering 180 4Es from India to Okkaido and more 200 will be moved from SOPAC as soon as the offensive is over (2 days to go).
I'm shifting my better planes to Okkaido, keeping P-40s and P-39s to guard minor theatres.
I'm also keeping my air forces as much intact as i can foreseeing the final assault.

I'll try what you suggested Nemo. Hopefully my heart won't break in pieces when i'll look at my aces rooster (i take care of my pilots as if they were my brothers in arms).

As far as i can tell you are right about Hakkodate. My offensive has pushed Nemo to stop moving troops to Okkaido and he's now evacuating what he can from hakkodate... Well, i think by now i cannot do much more about that. I'll stick to my offensive and see what happens.

More recon planes are enroute to Okkaido....it will take some time but in a couple of weeks i should be able to double my recon forces over Okkaido.

Hopefully in few weeks i'll be able to start the real strategic bombing offensive....i'm already chosing the target...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: desicat


ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

But the crucial part is that my CVs and CVEs started to moved back to US coast...escorting 730 ships....and Rader immediately spotted me and react violently...several subs are already spotted around my TFs...and i bet that tomorrow we'll have to fight against those damned pesky bastards again....as we did when our CVEs were transfered to SOPAC back in early 43....do you remember? 5 CVEs sunk in few days....[:@]

Now i've done my best to counter his pack wolves strategy...

My transports TFs have all PFs, SCs, DDs and some YMS with them. Every TF is following a ASW TF which is following a SCTF

Same for the CVEs and the CVs. They are organized following an ASW TFs that follows a SCTF...so that the latters should enter the hex for first and attack/get attacked earlier than the CV/CVEs....

my subs are creating a long range safety belt south and west of my ships...he cannot arrive with the KB unseen! (i hope so at least...)


....and when the KB arrives is there a plan? Only you know your force disposition but have you thought about hunting and trapping the KB, preventing it from getting in a first strike your convoy?

The KB has just been spotted. She is moving near Midway Island....while my CVs and CVE+convoys are passing south of Onnekotan Jiima.
His subs, as always, sprung up from the empty space...while my subs weren't able to locate the KB who penetrated their screen unseen....
Thank God i had several naval search planes at Midway.

The plan is simple...my convoys will move towards Addak on the most northern route, while my CV and CVEs will wait in an inner route the arrival of the KB, moving to cover the transports.
My Death Star is composed by 10 CVs, 6 CVLs and 25 CVEs....more than 2000 planes...not exactly a confortable enemy to face for the KB...and soon we'll be under the umbrella of the Aleutinas Island....with their ports (i have an ARD at Addak) and their air bases

[desicat]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: desicat


ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

But the crucial part is that my CVs and CVEs started to moved back to US coast...escorting 730 ships....and Rader immediately spotted me and react violently...several subs are already spotted around my TFs...and i bet that tomorrow we'll have to fight against those damned pesky bastards again....as we did when our CVEs were transfered to SOPAC back in early 43....do you remember? 5 CVEs sunk in few days....[:@]

Now i've done my best to counter his pack wolves strategy...

My transports TFs have all PFs, SCs, DDs and some YMS with them. Every TF is following a ASW TF which is following a SCTF

Same for the CVEs and the CVs. They are organized following an ASW TFs that follows a SCTF...so that the latters should enter the hex for first and attack/get attacked earlier than the CV/CVEs....

my subs are creating a long range safety belt south and west of my ships...he cannot arrive with the KB unseen! (i hope so at least...)


....and when the KB arrives is there a plan? Only you know your force disposition but have you thought about hunting and trapping the KB, preventing it from getting in a first strike your convoy?

The KB has just been spotted. She is moving near Midway Island....while my CVs and CVE+convoys are passing south of Onnekotan Jiima.
His subs, as always, sprung up from the empty space...while my subs weren't able to locate the KB who penetrated their screen unseen....
Thank God i had several naval search planes at Midway.

The plan is simple...my convoys will move towards Addak on the most northern route, while my CV and CVEs will wait in an inner route the arrival of the KB, moving to cover the transports.
My Death Star is composed by 10 CVs, 6 CVLs and 25 CVEs....more than 2000 planes...not exactly a confortable enemy to face for the KB...and soon we'll be under the umbrella of the Aleutinas Island....with their ports (i have an ARD at Addak) and their air bases

I don't think you are getting my point. I suspect he knows what your Death Star may be composed of at this point of the war and he knows you are more than likely to be escorting the convoy. How much of your Death Star is overkill and do you have anything to spare for hunting or trapping?

[JohnDillworth]

The KB has just been spotted. She is moving near Midway Island

I'm cranky tonight. How about shattering one of the task forces with just xAK's into 200 individual ship task forces and use them as a screen for your death star? Let him waste sorties on single ship task forces while he remains concentrated? Your close to home, he is not and your damage control is better. Have a go and give him lots of bad targets to shoot out. Your torpedoes work now. Trade him one for one.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: desicat

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: desicat


ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

But the crucial part is that my CVs and CVEs started to moved back to US coast...escorting 730 ships....and Rader immediately spotted me and react violently...several subs are already spotted around my TFs...and i bet that tomorrow we'll have to fight against those damned pesky bastards again....as we did when our CVEs were transfered to SOPAC back in early 43....do you remember? 5 CVEs sunk in few days....[:@]

Now i've done my best to counter his pack wolves strategy...

My transports TFs have all PFs, SCs, DDs and some YMS with them. Every TF is following a ASW TF which is following a SCTF

Same for the CVEs and the CVs. They are organized following an ASW TFs that follows a SCTF...so that the latters should enter the hex for first and attack/get attacked earlier than the CV/CVEs....

my subs are creating a long range safety belt south and west of my ships...he cannot arrive with the KB unseen! (i hope so at least...)


....and when the KB arrives is there a plan? Only you know your force disposition but have you thought about hunting and trapping the KB, preventing it from getting in a first strike your convoy?

The KB has just been spotted. She is moving near Midway Island....while my CVs and CVE+convoys are passing south of Onnekotan Jiima.
His subs, as always, sprung up from the empty space...while my subs weren't able to locate the KB who penetrated their screen unseen....
Thank God i had several naval search planes at Midway.

The plan is simple...my convoys will move towards Addak on the most northern route, while my CV and CVEs will wait in an inner route the arrival of the KB, moving to cover the transports.
My Death Star is composed by 10 CVs, 6 CVLs and 25 CVEs....more than 2000 planes...not exactly a confortable enemy to face for the KB...and soon we'll be under the umbrella of the Aleutinas Island....with their ports (i have an ARD at Addak) and their air bases

I don't think you are getting my point. I suspect he knows what your Death Star may be composed of at this point of the war and he knows you are more than likely to be escorting the convoy. How much of your Death Star is overkill and do you have anything to spare for hunting or trapping?

No, at the moment i'm just playing safely. My goal isn't to trap or kill his KB (for sure this would be welcome)...my goal is to get my 800 ships safely to WC and from there to Okkaido with all the troops/supplies i need. I could use my CVEs as a bait...i understand this...but this would surely put at risk my convoys...and, at the moment, i feel that they have the priority above all


April 29, 30 1944

The KB moved back towards Wake...and my subs, again, are worthless....[:o]

We sunk this turn 6 xAKLs and 1 LST near Hakkodate using out PTs, losing 4 of them...not a bad exchange ratio. Rader brought the DDs with his this time...tomorrow i'm gonna pay him back with out Fletchers....

In NG the 1st Guards Division, after the recent breakthrough among NZ lines, managed to arrived at Terapo. Luckly i managed to get my 3 NZ Bdes back in place right before he attacked.... he got a 1-5 and now i have two divisions (the 27th US and the 3rd AUS) flanking those positions. If i manage to slow him down enough with my 2Es i may be able to trap that big unit....

Usual land bombings at Hakkodate...



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Terapo (96,127)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 15109 troops, 144 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 554

Defending force 5313 troops, 110 guns, 9 vehicles, Assault Value = 224

Japanese adjusted assault: 31

Allied adjusted defense: 179

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 5 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
418 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled


Allied ground losses:
129 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 29 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled


Assaulting units:
1st Guards Division

Defending units:
1st NZ Brigade
15th NZ Brigade
12th NZ Brigade

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The KB has just been spotted. She is moving near Midway Island

I'm cranky tonight. How about shattering one of the task forces with just xAK's into 200 individual ship task forces and use them as a screen for your death star? Let him waste sorties on single ship task forces while he remains concentrated? Your close to home, he is not and your damage control is better. Have a go and give him lots of bad targets to shoot out. Your torpedoes work now. Trade him one for one.

No, sorry mate but i don't like this tactic. I find it somehow unfair (single ship TF i mean)...in RL for sure Kates wouldn't have wasted their torps on xAKs and, giving that we don't have the ability to select targets for naval attacks, i find this not exactly fair

[desicat]

No, at the moment i'm just playing safely. My goal isn't to trap or kill his KB (for sure this would be welcome)...my goal is to get my 800 ships safely to WC and from there to Okkaido with all the troops/supplies i need. I could use my CVEs as a bait...i understand this...but this would surely put at risk my convoys...and, at the moment, i feel that they have the priority above all

Just so you understand I was in no way suggesting using your CVE's as bait. Maybe Nemo will chime in and explain what I was suggesting in a more direct manner.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The KB has just been spotted. She is moving near Midway Island

I'm cranky tonight. How about shattering one of the task forces with just xAK's into 200 individual ship task forces and use them as a screen for your death star? Let him waste sorties on single ship task forces while he remains concentrated? Your close to home, he is not and your damage control is better. Have a go and give him lots of bad targets to shoot out. Your torpedoes work now. Trade him one for one.

No, sorry mate but i don't like this tactic. I find it somehow unfair (single ship TF i mean)...in RL for sure Kates wouldn't have wasted their torps on xAKs and, giving that we don't have the ability to select targets for naval attacks, i find this not exactly fair

Good for you! Scattering a convoy like that is a valid fleeing tactic, but gamey and unfair when used as suggested here. I salute you.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: tkbomber7285

Having read this entire thread, I have to say that I feel that Rader is still ahead in this game. That sounds crazy given GreyJoy's offensive in northern Japan, but the thing is that Rader has way more experience in the game then GreyJoy does. Not sure how often he has faced a player who made the move that GreyJoy did, probably never admittedly, but from what I've read of Rader's games if anyone has the strategy to take back Hokkaido it is him. This war is about to swing again into Rader's favor, and there is no way a second offensive like this will be allowed to happen.

Nope, he will never be able to take it back. Hokkaido is an "open wound" that Rader will never be able to cure.

[JohnDillworth]

No, sorry mate but i don't like this tactic. I find it somehow unfair (single ship TF i mean)...in RL for sure Kates wouldn't have wasted their torps on xAKs and, giving that we don't have the ability to select targets for naval attacks, i find this not exactly fair



Good for you! Scattering a convoy like that is a valid fleeing tactic, but gamey and unfair when used as suggested here. I salute you.

You folks are right. Bad day

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Miller

It really boils my piss when people whine "Its scen 2 so they can produce unlimited planes/pilots forever" Its a lot more complicated than that!

Miller, I have no experience with any of the Japanese production, so I'll have to take your word on it, but "boils my piss" is worthy of the forum Hall of Fame! [:D][&o][:D]

[pws1225]

Miller, I have no experience with any of the Japanese production, so I'll have to take your word on it, but "boils my piss" is worthy of the forum Hall of Fame!

+1

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: pws1225

Miller, I have no experience with any of the Japanese production, so I'll have to take your word on it, but "boils my piss" is worthy of the forum Hall of Fame!

+1

+2

I'm wondering whether the boiling is in the bladder or externally. One hopes for the latter unless we're talking about your worst enemy. [:D]

[GreyJoy]

Sunk ship list

[GreyJoy]

victory points chart

[GreyJoy]

total air losses. We lead with a steady 2-1