The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

A picture taken from 30k feet of an industrial facility cannot tell you what kind of a/c they are producing inside.

And do the planes come outside once they're finished? Yes they do.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

Point being I suppose that WWII bombing missions were not launched blind at "its an industrial facility somewhere near Berlin", then generlly knew what they were trying to hit from a variety of intelligence sources (humint, sigint, recon, etc).

The previous "perfect" intel was bonkers, but correcting down to "virtually no information" is equally wrong, just in the other direction imho.

Great site with thousands and thousands of aerial photo recon photos of WWII Germany. Amazing detail w/ black & white film and cameras of the day.

http://aerial.rcahms.gov.uk/worldwide/Germany.php

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

A picture taken from 30k feet of an industrial facility cannot tell you what kind of a/c they are producing inside.

And do the planes come outside once they're finished? Yes they do.

My thoughts exactly. Of all the industrial facilities one could recon, it would seem to me that aircaft assembly plants would be the easiest to identify

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Ok, I know we are hijacking GJs AAR, but the Doolittle raiders had specific known targets to attack when they bombed Japan in 1942. Including oil storage facilties, a steel mill and power plants. The knowledge of these targets, I assume, was gained without any sort of recon. I would suspect that the Allies had an even clearer picture of potential targets by mid 1944.

Humint was hard in the HI, but there was some from my understanding (the Sorge Ring for one, but I'm not sure how much if any was shared with Washington.) A lot more on the mainland in the case of Harbin. Sigint was far more advanced than the game portrays as well. Overall, if the Allies in the game had a true level of intel (UDTs? Submarine recon? Magic? Japanese naval codes?) the JFBs would scream bloody murder and "unfairness."

[witpqs]

Remember all the pre-war Intel as well.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Remember all the pre-war Intel as well.

Very true. Factories aren't on wheels.

[cantona2]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Remember all the pre-war Intel as well.

Very true. Factories aren't on wheels.

Yes they do. Ask Stalin and the Soviets! [:'(]

[paullus99]

Wasn't part of the problem with the strategic bombing campaign against Japan that a lot of the fabrication was being done in very small shops in residential areas? Again, part of the reason the US went with large scale firebombing raids, since it was much more effective at hurting industrial production than pin-point factory raids.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: cantona2

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Remember all the pre-war Intel as well.

Very true. Factories aren't on wheels.

Yes they do. Ask Stalin and the Soviets! [:'(]

Fair enough, but the wheels need to come with a Vast Hinterlands to wheel to. [:)]

[Nemo121]

Honestly I don't see what all the fuss is about claiming the change is unfair. As I see it the new FOW interacts with players as follows:

1. ANYONE can open the scenario on 7th December 1941 and note down what is where - this will pinpoint pre-war factories, pre-war HI, pre-war oil refineries etc.

2. If you have less than 10 DL you don't know exactly which plane types are being produced but a tiny bit of guesswork removes much of the trouble:
a) If 60 of a type are being produced then that's more likely to be a fighter than a bomber
b) even if that's wrong it is definitely likely to be one of the mainstays of your opponent's air force and thus well worth bombing.
c) as numbers produced goes down the plane is less and less likely to be a key plane type ( or your opponent is dispersing production on purpose in preparation for strategic bombing ).

3. Once you get a DL of 10 ( which can be gotten in 1 or 2 days if you commit a few recon units to the task - a single squadron split into 3 components usually suffices for me ) you get perfect intel of which planes are being made in which factories. Once you get that intel once you note it down and then NEVER have to recon that base again.


End result: If Japan has their airframe and engine production split between 20 bases and you have 4 recon squadrons capable of recon then you can fully ID 2 bases per day ( with split squadrons ) and recon everything you need to the necessary level in about 10 days.

Obviously it might take a bit longer in a real game then that theory but, really, the unfairness and difficulty of this is being blown out of all proportion. I maintained a DL of 10 over Okinawa for 6 weeks day in day out using just 2 x Ki-15 airgroups near the end. Its pretty damned easy to recon up to a DL of 10 with just a tiny bit of thought.



GJ,
Your stated strategic bombing plan: Recon everything, stand down for a week and then hit something else; is a recipe for disaster. There's no point bombing a target unless your DL ( on the day of bombing ) is 9 or more. Your plan would have that DL be about 1 and would result in very poor bombing accuracy. Again, through a minor error you'd be losingthe majority of the effectiveness of your bomber force.

[cantona2]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: cantona2

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58




Very true. Factories aren't on wheels.

Yes they do. Ask Stalin and the Soviets! [:'(]

Fair enough, but the wheels need to come with a Vast Hinterlands to wheel to. [:)]

True [:'(]

PS thanks for the linkage earlier about those recon pics

[pws1225]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

GJ,
Your stated strategic bombing plan: Recon everything, stand down for a week and then hit something else; is a recipe for disaster. There's no point bombing a target unless your DL ( on the day of bombing ) is 9 or more. Your plan would have that DL be about 1 and would result in very poor bombing accuracy. Again, through a minor error you'd be losingthe majority of the effectiveness of your bomber force.

Why would this be true for a factory? I can understand that LCUs and TFs can move around causing poor bombing results with low DLs, but factories are fixed in place. It seems that recent recon shouldn't make that much difference. Perhaps it's just the way the game is coded?

[Nemo121]

I was talking about how the game works and how GJ needs to work within the game.

You are correct in that in real life pictures from a week before would still be current and lead to high accuracy bombing. On the other hand, the game doesn't work that way - and won't until they institute multiple different DLs depending on "mobility" such that items which are immobile don't degrade their DL nearly as quickly as ground units etc etc.

It is a flaw in the game but well down the list of things which needs to be fixed at this stage IMO. There are far more result-impacting flaws out there which still need fixing first.

[JohnDillworth]

The German factories are a bit different than the ones in Japan

True that. The German ones you had to bomb directly. The Japanese ones? Just light up the whole town at night and that cuts production down.In all seriousness I think Japanese production was decentralized a bit. Not quite mom and pop shops, but more, smaller factories. Don't know if that was aircraft of not, but they were probably not nearly as centralized as Germany's

[pat.casey]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The German factories are a bit different than the ones in Japan

True that. The German ones you had to bomb directly. The Japanese ones? Just light up the whole town at night and that cuts production down.In all seriousness I think Japanese production was decentralized a bit. Not quite mom and pop shops, but more, smaller factories. Don't know if that was aircraft of not, but they were probably not nearly as centralized as Germany's

Really depends.

Some things like shipyards are intrinsically centralized (there's only a finite number of drydocks).
Other thinks like heavy machine tooling require massive power and capital investments so really don't decentralize well. You cannot run a stamping mill in your basement for example.

Some stuff you can though. For example, you can machine small parts or build subassemblies for wooden aircraft frame.

The trick in most of these cases though is that somewhere all these subassemblies have to get put together into an airplane and that process requires a central location with lots of open space and specialized equipment e.g. a factory.

That being said, heavy industrial equipment is actually remarkably hard to damage with high explosives. Something like an industrial lathe or a stamping press weighs tens of tons and is remarkably robust. Barring a very direct hit, the worst thing a bomb hit is likely to do is knock it off lever or damage its mounts requiring a few days to get it relevelled and mounted.

That's one of the reason folks switched to area bombing. Compared to heavy industrial equipment, people are easy to kill.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Honestly I don't see what all the fuss is about claiming the change is unfair.

In that case, why did it need to be changed? I mean, if the Allied player can open a separate game and read the Japanese mail, what's the big deal?

Illogical.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

The trick in most of these cases though is that somewhere all these subassemblies have to get put together into an airplane and that process requires a central location with lots of open space and specialized equipment e.g. a factory.

That's one of the reason folks switched to area bombing. Compared to heavy industrial equipment, people are easy to kill.

It also requires trains, tracks, and skilled operaotrs. Trains can be taken out with tac air if in range.

But I agree. Kill the people and the machines sit mute. War production workers are a valid military target.

[JohnDillworth]

That being said, heavy industrial equipment is actually remarkably hard to damage with high explosives. Something like an industrial lathe or a stamping press weighs tens of tons and is remarkably robust. Barring a very direct hit, the worst thing a bomb hit is likely to do is knock it off lever or damage its mounts requiring a few days to get it relevelled and mounted.

I believe German aircraft production actually kept rising until mid-late 1944. Eventually it crashed, but I am not so sure that was due to bombing or lack of ability to transport raw materials. Have to read my Strategic Bombing Survey again

[GreyJoy]

Sorry guys but i won't follow the discussion about DL and factories...need to update 2 important turns [:D]

May 3, 4 1944

Harbin was hit hard. and only a couple of planes now remain in production[8D]
At Hakkodate our PTs and DDs, despite heavy losses due to mines mostly (during this campaign for Hakkodate i lost 25 PTs, 4 DMS, 5 DDs and got many more heavily damaged), managed to score some important results, destroying the upcoming fleet of barges that from Ominato were moving to Hakkodate in order to lift away the sieged garrison.
We didn't want to give the enmy any breath so we didn't wait. Our units were sent on the heels of the fleeing enemy.
Our PTs also sunk a jap CL[:D] and, in combination with our subs, 4 LSTs, 5 xAKLs and several PBs and AMcs


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Ominato at 118,53, Range 3,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
AMc Yoshitomo Maru, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
AMc Gamitsu Maru #1, Shell hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
LB-1035, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LB-5001, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
LB-5002, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
LB-5003, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
LB-5004, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LB-5005, Shell hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
LB-5006, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
LB-5007, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
LB-5009, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-201, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-202, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
LB-203, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-204, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-205, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
LB-206, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LB-207, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
LB-209, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-210, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
LB-211, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-212, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LB-213, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LB-215, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LB-216, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
LB-217, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-218, Shell hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
PT-496
PT-497
PT-522
PT-524
PT-525
PT-526
PT-527
PT-528
PT-530
PT-531


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Ominato at 118,53, Range 1,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Katori, Shell hits 15, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage[:D][:D][:D][:D]
DD Yukaze

Allied Ships
PT-161
PT-242
PT-258
PT-345
PT-357
PT-463
PT-465
PT-469, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
PT-493, Shell hits 1, and is sunk


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Harbin , at 109,39

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes


Allied aircraft
Liberator B.VI x 16
B-24J Liberator x 205
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 24


No Allied losses



N1K1 Rex factory hits 9
J1N1-C Irving factory hits 3
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar factory hits 14
E15K1 Norm factory hits 8


In Sopac Rader ambushed our B-25s on naval attack mission near Kavieng, destroying 50 bombers and 40 escort Beaufighters.... I have to learn not to get impatient!!!!

Enemy CV popped up near Perth and sunk 2 TKs....i think it was a combo of CVEs...nothing serious



May 5, 6 1944

Our Okkaido army arrived at Hakkodate on the run....we didn't give the enemy no quarter...he managed to dunkirk several thousands men using barges, despite my effort to close the door...
We LRCAPped Hakkodate and sent 200 2Es to bomb the garrison there. No opposition found in the air...
After the intense air bombing our generals ordered the final attack to the enemy's redoubt and we immediately conquered the important base. The following day we cleared what was left of the enemy presence in Okkaido.

Now that the last jap soldier has abbandoned Okkaido it's time to set up proper defences and to give my division a deserved rest.

Our Convoys are close to home by now...while a new CVE TF (230 planes strong) and a CV TF leaded by WaspII (278 planes) are joining our main CV/CVE fleet near Addak... everything is going smoothly...





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Ominato at 118,53, Range 4,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
AMc Wa 13, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
E W-24, Shell hits 4
PB Kohuku Maru, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
LB-5008, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LB-5015, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-219, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
LB-221, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-222, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LB-558, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
LB-561, Shell hits 21, and is sunk
LB-562, Shell hits 2
LB-1203, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LB-1204, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
LB-1315, Shell hits 1, and is sunk

Allied Ships
PT-496
PT-497
PT-522
PT-524, Shell hits 1
PT-526, Shell hits 1
PT-527
PT-528
PT-530
PT-531

Japanese ground losses:
614 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 53 destroyed, 64 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Hakodate (119,53)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 151493 troops, 3163 guns, 3630 vehicles, Assault Value = 5541

Defending force 12086 troops, 89 guns, 116 vehicles, Assault Value = 150

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Allied adjusted assault: 3886

Japanese adjusted defense: 67

Allied assault odds: 58 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied forces CAPTURE Hakodate !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4693 casualties reported
Squads: 151 destroyed, 53 disabled
Non Combat: 312 destroyed, 124 disabled
Engineers: 25 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 80 (74 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 98 (84 destroyed, 14 disabled)
Units destroyed 3


Allied ground losses:
504 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 76 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)


Assaulting units:
7th Infantry Division
8th Indian Division
3rd Marine Division
104th Combat Engineer Regiment
4th USMC Tank Battalion
2nd Marine Division
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
193rd Tank Battalion
754th Tank Battalion
41st Infantry Division
33rd Infantry Division
40th Infantry Division
6th Infantry Division
4th Marine Division
5th USMC Tank Battalion
32nd Infantry Division
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
131st Combat Engineer Regiment
Americal Infantry Division
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
9th Australian Division
82nd Mortar Battalion
109th Tank Attack Regiment
134th Field Artillery Battalion
225th Field Artillery Battalion
148th Field Artillery Battalion
XIV Corps Artillery
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
V US Amphib Corps
147th Field Artillery Regiment
XI US Corps
33rd Medium Regiment
181st Field Artillery Regiment
198th Field Artillery Battalion
249th Field Artillery Battalion
XXI Indian Corps

Defending units:
86th Division
43rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
1st Mobile Brigade
27th Tank Regiment
4th Depot Division
Guards Depot Div /2
81st Div /2
II/19th Nav Gd /1
77th Div /2
56th Depot Division
1st JAAF AF Bn /14
6th Shipping Engr Rgt /10
57th Depot Div /1
Hakodate Fortress
5th Area Army
74th Infantry Rgt /4
2nd Depot Division
11th Div /1



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Hakodate (119,53)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 151464 troops, 3165 guns, 3635 vehicles, Assault Value = 5513

Defending force 6312 troops, 28 guns, 47 vehicles, Assault Value = 38

Allied adjusted assault: 3576

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 3576 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
6329 casualties reported
Squads: 151 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 738 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 12 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 17 (17 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 50 (50 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 12

Allied ground losses:
60 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled


Assaulting units:
193rd Tank Battalion
5th USMC Tank Battalion
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
104th Combat Engineer Regiment
40th Infantry Division
754th Tank Battalion
Americal Infantry Division
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Battalion
8th Indian Division
32nd Infantry Division
7th Infantry Division
33rd Infantry Division
6th Infantry Division
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
3rd Marine Division
2nd Marine Division
41st Infantry Division
131st Combat Engineer Regiment
4th Marine Division
9th Australian Division
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
33rd Medium Regiment
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XI US Corps
225th Field Artillery Battalion
148th Field Artillery Battalion
134th Field Artillery Battalion
181st Field Artillery Regiment
XIV Corps Artillery
109th Tank Attack Regiment
V US Amphib Corps
249th Field Artillery Battalion
82nd Mortar Battalion
198th Field Artillery Battalion
147th Field Artillery Regiment
XXI Indian Corps

Defending units:
Guards Depot Div /2
4th Depot Division
57th Depot Div /1
43rd Ind.Mixed Bde /1
81st Div /2
27th Tank Regiment
5th Area Army
Hakodate Fortress
56th Depot Division
74th Infantry Rgt /4
2nd Depot Div /1
1st Mobile Bde /2
77th Div /2


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Japanese Unit(s) Wiped Out at Hakodate by attrition!!!

[GreyJoy]

A pic of Okkaido "liberated"