Caging the Tiger~ Rader (J) vs. GreyJoy (A)

[rader]

It's now May 11, 1944 and he's just consolidated his control of Hokkaido. Now we'll see what his next move is. Also some minor skirmishing in New Guinea near Lae.

India is mysteriously quiet. I wonder if he might be bringing his india troops around the worl to bring them to Hokkaido?

We're fortifying the Bonins (already fortified), Ryukus, Philippines, and Formosa. I wonder if his next push could be a jump right across to cut Japan off from the South? If I were him, I would go for something like that. Although he might decide to go straight for the jugular by invading Honshu... I've got more than 5000 AV in reserve just in case he decides to go for this.

In the long run, it is going to come down to a contest of the armies. With all of Hokkaido, he can pretty much land in Honshu at will. If you put all the allie land forces in a ring with all the Japanese land forces, who would win?? [&:] Luckily I get some pretty major reinforcements through 1944 and 1945, with soemthing like 50+ division to come...

[PaxMondo]

Watch out ... those are VERY low exp division (mostly).  Your best troops are overseas and you need to get them back.  Any chance to retake Hokkaido?

[String]

You have been quite successful with your japanese subs, if you don't mind me asking, how are you using them when hunting enemy surface ships? Do you set them patrol zones, or do you use simple one hex patrols? Or something completely different?

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Watch out ... those are VERY low exp division (mostly).  Your best troops are overseas and you need to get them back.  Any chance to retake Hokkaido?

And will your industry be healthy enough to equip them? Divisions without devices are paper tigers.

[veji1]

ORIGINAL: rader

It's now May 11, 1944 and he's just consolidated his control of Hokkaido. Now we'll see what his next move is. Also some minor skirmishing in New Guinea near Lae.

India is mysteriously quiet. I wonder if he might be bringing his india troops around the worl to bring them to Hokkaido?

We're fortifying the Bonins (already fortified), Ryukus, Philippines, and Formosa. I wonder if his next push could be a jump right across to cut Japan off from the South? If I were him, I would go for something like that. Although he might decide to go straight for the jugular by invading Honshu... I've got more than 5000 AV in reserve just in case he decides to go for this.

In the long run, it is going to come down to a contest of the armies. With all of Hokkaido, he can pretty much land in Honshu at will. If you put all the allie land forces in a ring with all the Japanese land forces, who would win?? [&:] Luckily I get some pretty major reinforcements through 1944 and 1945, with soemthing like 50+ division to come...

My question might be naive but why the hell are you fortifying the Philippines and wandering where his next move might be. He can now nuke the HI and for all intent and purposes the game is lost if you don't remove him from Hokkaido at least. Being a lowly AI player only, I suppose I can't give any significant advise, but I would just bring all the best troops back to the HI, try to load them all up from a port on the south west of Japan, and from there dump all the thousands AVs I could find on Hokkaido in a monstruous display of Bushido spirit while unleashing all I got in terms of air and naval power.

The goal of the game for you should now be to preserve the HI a little longer, who cares if he gets Singapore or the Marianas now...

Anyway this is just from my limited perspective of course...

[rader]

ORIGINAL: veji1
My question might be naive but why the hell are you fortifying the Philippines and wandering where his next move might be. He can now nuke the HI and for all intent and purposes the game is lost if you don't remove him from Hokkaido at least. Being a lowly AI player only, I suppose I can't give any significant advise, but I would just bring all the best troops back to the HI, try to load them all up from a port on the south west of Japan, and from there dump all the thousands AVs I could find on Hokkaido in a monstruous display of Bushido spirit while unleashing all I got in terms of air and naval power.

The goal of the game for you should now be to preserve the HI a little longer, who cares if he gets Singapore or the Marianas now...

Anyway this is just from my limited perspective of course...

This is a very good question.

First, let me state that there is essentially zero chance of me ever evicting him from Hokkaido. I believe this was true as soon as he landed. I conducted an analysis of what it would take to get rid of him, or even hold Hokkaido, and I determined this to be essentially impossible. He had 6500 AV landed, and I had around 1200 in position.

Fighting to retake Hokkaido would guarantee our swift defeat. I don't believe it was likely to succeed if I'd commited to it right after he landed, and now that ship has most definitely sailed. Very few of my ships would even make it to the beaches, let alone would my troops have any chance of evicting him. I don't see what would be gained by throwing away all my aircraft (and especially pilots) fighting over his territory.

Now, you've raised a very good question: assuming I don't take back Hokkaido, do I actually have any chance of winning the game (or fighting to a draw, not losing terribly, etc.). I believe there is a chance, but it is probably less than 50% at this point. But I strongly believe my only chance is to fight a strong defensive campaign. In fact, my tasks as I see it are:

1.) I need to prevent him from conquering Japan. In this, the IJA will have some support from the IJN and IJAF, but this will be mostly in the form of protecting the beaches. Of course, he is so close to Japan that he can almost land anywhere in Honshu at will. Thus, this is actually my greatest concern. I don't know if, even if I bring back most of the land units and build up an IJA reserve, the IJA is up to the task of this. I suspect the IJA, fully concentrated with large bases and air support, can hold off an allied amphibious assault on Honshu for now (I can rapidly concentrate over 10,000 AV at the landing site), but I'm not absolutely certain of this. If I can't stop him on the beaches of Honshu, the game is likely lost sooner rather than later.

2.) I need to blunt his strategic bombing of Japan. For that purpose I need most of my fighters over Japan, and maybe, just maybe, I can do enough damage to his bombers that he can't raze the homeland in time to win the game. Fighting over my own territory should help here. Hopefully I can recover most of my pilots and while he loses most of his. The Japanese had a nasty taste of fighting over enemy territory in Karachi, and it was ugly in terms of pilot losses. Let's see if I can turn the tables.

3.) I think I do need to prevent him from blockading Japan by cutting off the DEI oil. While the oil flows, I can keep up my production (notwithstanding strategic bombing losses). To this end, I do need to think about allied attacks on the Philippines, Formosa, Okinawa, Marianas, etc.

4.) Despite the allied presence in Hokkaido, I would like to retain large parts of the map if I can do so at a relatively low cost. This "safe zone" is vital IMO to allow me to maintain some deployment secrecy and protect the DEI. Additionally, holding an empire at the end of the game (if I am still alive), will be good for the point count.

5.) If I can, I would like to try to interdict his reinforcement stream to Hokkaido. However, I strongly believe that I should only attempt to do this when I see opportunities for favourable returns. Throwing away the IJN and IJAF in a suicidal attempt to cut off or retake Hokkaido is only a way to accelerate defeat IMO.

These objectives suggest to me that while obviously the defense of Japan should be (and is) formost on my mind, I ought not to simply abandon the rest of the map.

[JohnDillworth]

I heard you mention in the tech support thread that you Navy pilot pools are exhausted so no IJN kami's.  Does this mean that there are not enough pilots to fill out the KB?

[rader]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I heard you mention in the tech support thread that you Navy pilot pools are exhausted so no IJN kami's.  Does this mean that there are not enough pilots to fill out the KB?

I have just enough to fill out my existing groups if I'm careful with navy pilots - no more sending them out to die in droves and no navy kamis. But I've got TONS of army pilots in the pool - so I will be using army kamis. I've already started, but they seem not to hit much, even when "trained" to ~50-70 LowN.

[rader]

May 27, 1944.

In this game the Japanese empire is still much larger, although it is in just as much danger, and considering it is more than a year earlier, probably much more danger.

I'm reorganizing my defenses. Below is our assessment of the threat faces by each of the defensive districts. Note that this represents threat, not importance. What's left of india is of course, pretty much useless at this point.

The districts highest on the priority list for defense are:

1. Honshu (of course, an allied landing here could end the war)
2. Bonins (blockade of Japan and stepping stone to Ryukus/Philippines)
3. Ryukus/Formosa (direct blockade of Japan)
4. Philippines (less direct blockade of Japan
5. Marianas (stepping stone to Philippines/Ryukus)
6. DEI
7. Asia (route to DEI)
8. Korea/Manchuria (low priority only because the Kwangtung army is there, and has to stay there anyway).
9. Solomons/NG (route to Marianas/Philippines/DEI - most of the troops in theater will stay here because they are tying down allied troops, but certainly no more reinforcements will be sent and some may come out)
10. Low priorities: India (who cares?), Marshalls (long route, pretty much useless at this point).

[rader]

In defending home country cities from strat bombing, is it better to spread out the fighters on each base and set normal cap, or is it better to set most fighters to do short range LRCAP from larger bases like Tokyo? If I set all planes to something like 30-50 LRCAP at range 3-4, with only 10% or so normal CAP, am I going to get better reactions than if I set them to normal CAP over their own hex and hope they will leak into the combat hexes?

Also, if I turn on droptanks, I gather they will use more supply flying missions, but will they stay in the fight longer and/will there be more flying at a given time over the hex due to their improved endurance?

[n01487477]

Rader - I can't give you any strategic advice as I've visited GreyJoy's thread and don't want to break OPSec. Having said that, I think there are some options for you still to consider and from what you've written might have overlooked.

ORIGINAL: rader

In defending home country cities from strat bombing, is it better to spread out the fighters on each base and set normal cap, or is it better to set most fighters to do short range LRCAP from larger bases like Tokyo? If I set all planes to something like 30-50 LRCAP at range 3-4, with only 10% or so normal CAP, am I going to get better reactions than if I set them to normal CAP over their own hex and hope they will leak into the combat hexes?

I think LRCAP is the wrong way to go.
[*]it increases fatigue etc.
[*]more ineffective

I'd do this by :
[*] Having radar at each base.
[*] Dispersing some fighters, but then having some big fighter bases too.
[*] Setting cap with target (I think this works)
[*] Limiting range. Alt ??

Anyway, this is an interesting Q, one I don't know the full answers to and I'll fire up the editor and get back to you hopefully in time before Japan is totally ablaze. Would love to hear from anyone else who has run some tests on this.

Also, if I turn on droptanks, I gather they will use more supply flying missions, but will they stay in the fight longer and/will there be more flying at a given time over the hex due to their improved endurance?

That is not taken into account as far as I know. A dev would have to give a 100% answer, but I think it is just an abstraction in the 12 hour pulse.

Good luck,

[vicberg]

You might try interlocking LRCAP, see how that works. At this point, you have so many targets he can hit, that it's a crap shoot. A couple turns of interlocking LRCAP (and fatigue) will give a picture.

The other option is to look at your production and figure out the factories you want to defend. Give up the rest.

Best option, IMO, is attempt to cut off his supply line to Hokkaido. Concentrate every sub, every ship and every air asset and the KB to closing down Hokkaido. If you aren't successful, it doesn't matter at this point. It's do or die. Every japanese player has taken note of this line of attack. It's deadly. He will hammer your production into the ground from short range. Doesn't matter how much territory you have. Your industry will die. He'll be taking Tokyo in a year.

He has a long supply line at this point. He has lots he has to supply. You could possibly strike within range of your land based air, which might make an attack against his own carriers equal if they are in the area. Doubtful at this point of the game, but possible. I haven't seen how big the KB is at this point nor have I seen your pilot quality. You can use kamkazies. Focus everything on killing his supply line and that brings the Hokkaido campaign to a halt. Then you can possibly even counter attack. Slim chances, but possible.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: vicberg

You might try interlocking LRCAP, see how that works. At this point, you have so many targets he can hit, that it's a crap shoot. A couple turns of interlocking LRCAP (and fatigue) will give a picture.

The other option is to look at your production and figure out the factories you want to defend. Give up the rest.

Sensible advice. +1

Best option, IMO, is attempt to cut off his supply line to Hokkaido. Concentrate every sub, every ship and every air asset and the KB to closing down Hokkaido. If you aren't successful, it doesn't matter at this point. It's do or die. Every japanese player has taken note of this line of attack. It's deadly. He will hammer your production into the ground from short range. Doesn't matter how much territory you have. Your industry will die. He'll be taking Tokyo in a year.

He has a long supply line at this point. He has lots he has to supply. You could possibly strike within range of your land based air, which might make an attack against his own carriers equal if they are in the area. Doubtful at this point of the game, but possible. I haven't seen how big the KB is at this point nor have I seen your pilot quality. You can use kamkazies. Focus everything on killing his supply line and that brings the Hokkaido campaign to a halt. Then you can possibly even counter attack. Slim chances, but possible.

vicberg - gotta like your thinking... And it's what I'd do.

[vicberg]

Quite frankly, this line of attack is far and away the best for the allied player. I'm not sure how it can be defended. It's close to allied bases, as anywhere in the pacific. Even if the japanese have been aggressive in the aluetions, it's still close to anchorage. Brutal if the allies land. There's aren't many jap bases to defend the assualt against. It requires unrestricted jap units (and PP points) to build up the bases that could possibly defend against it. The typical jap disposition has their forces usually in SRA or SOPAC or Burma, not northern Japan. The forces that are in japan are usually trainers and not nearly enough to defend against it. Even if it could be seen in advance, whether by aggressive japanese expansion into the aluetions or via long range recon, do th japs have the ability to respond before the allies hit? Especially in 44? Perhaps it the northern jap air bases are all level 9s, and then kamakazies with sufficient air forces nearby? Nasty.

[rader]

ORIGINAL: vicberg

Quite frankly, this line of attack is far and away the best for the allied player. I'm not sure how it can be defended. It's close to allied bases, as anywhere in the pacific. Even if the japanese have been aggressive in the aluetions, it's still close to anchorage. Brutal if the allies land. There's aren't many jap bases to defend the assualt against. It requires unrestricted jap units (and PP points) to build up the bases that could possibly defend against it. The typical jap disposition has their forces usually in SRA or SOPAC or Burma, not northern Japan. The forces that are in japan are usually trainers and not nearly enough to defend against it. Even if it could be seen in advance, whether by aggressive japanese expansion into the aluetions or via long range recon, do th japs have the ability to respond before the allies hit? Especially in 44? Perhaps it the northern jap air bases are all level 9s, and then kamakazies with sufficient air forces nearby? Nasty.

I agree.

You know, my original plan for this game was to stick to a very short preimeter running down the Marianas to (only) Western New Guinea around Biak, and into the DEI. I wasn't going to even fight for the Solomons or Eastern New Guinea. Greyjoy sucked me in!!!

[rader]

June 10, 1944.

As the allies consolidate their landing in Normandy, the battle for the skies over Japan rages on. It's a slaughterhouse fight to the death. We are losing an average of around 40 planes a day. Thankfully these are mostly over home territory so many pilots are saved. But still, pilot and aircraft losses are essentially unsustainable.

Thankfully, I think the Allied losses are also unsustainable in long range fighters and bombers. He is losing maybe 25-30 of these (combined) a day. This is a typical day of bombing (the pattern has generally one 2 day turn of bombing followed by a 2 day turn of rest - note that these losses are for 2 days of action).

This pace of action can't be sustained forever by either side, and it's just a matter of time until one side breaks.

The Japanese fighter industry has been hit hard. We've lost probably 600 factory points worth of fighter production in the last month. Most of the targets so far have been fighter R&D factories, and he has slaughtered my fighter R&D. The damaged factories are either not being rebuilt, or are being rebuilt as much smaller "R&D only" factories focussed on key types. It's not worth burning supplies rebuilding factoried in highly vulnerable cities. We're instead essentially abandoning these, and are going to concentrate on protecting factories in a few key cities where we can provide adequate defenses.

[pws1225]

ORIGINAL: rader

ORIGINAL: vicberg

Quite frankly, this line of attack is far and away the best for the allied player. I'm not sure how it can be defended. It's close to allied bases, as anywhere in the pacific. Even if the japanese have been aggressive in the aluetions, it's still close to anchorage. Brutal if the allies land. There's aren't many jap bases to defend the assualt against. It requires unrestricted jap units (and PP points) to build up the bases that could possibly defend against it. The typical jap disposition has their forces usually in SRA or SOPAC or Burma, not northern Japan. The forces that are in japan are usually trainers and not nearly enough to defend against it. Even if it could be seen in advance, whether by aggressive japanese expansion into the aluetions or via long range recon, do th japs have the ability to respond before the allies hit? Especially in 44? Perhaps it the northern jap air bases are all level 9s, and then kamakazies with sufficient air forces nearby? Nasty.

I agree.

You know, my original plan for this game was to stick to a very short preimeter running down the Marianas to (only) Western New Guinea around Biak, and into the DEI. I wasn't going to even fight for the Solomons or Eastern New Guinea. Greyjoy sucked me in!!!

Well, I'll be damned!

[rader]

Holy toledo! We set up a bit of a CAP trap over Maebeshi this turn, and the bombers obliged us by coming in before their sweeping fighters. It was a long running combat involving hundreds of fighters assaulting and harassing the bomber formation on the way in and out. If the total losses for the last turn are even close to accurate, it was a total slaughter. That sure will set back the allied strat bombing campaign.

Actually, one good thing about the allies starting their strat bombing early, is that I can start shooting down allied bombers before the B-29s groups are fully filled out and before he has all the B-24 replacements he would have in 1945. It is certainly better for Japan to fight the allied air forces earlier rather than later, and with this all-in strat bombing strategy, I might actually have a better chance of keeping his bomber groups at manageable sizes...

Although he has totally slaughterd my (planned) production of advanced fighters (Ki-83s, J7Ws, Karyus), and molested my Frank production. I can still crank out droves of crappy fighters (A6M5cs, Tonys, Tojos, and Oscars), and that is what I'm going to do. Eventually these will become (not so effective) surface to air missiles once they develop collision tactics in 1945 (they don't seem to be sacrificing themselves enough yet...).

But I have a feeling this game is going to come down to boots on the ground in Honshu eventually. I just don't know if he will try to land soon in the North, try to go around and outflank for now with an amphibious operation, or sit back for a while and bomb...

[rader]

Meanwhile, we are preparing to receive an allied invasion of Honshu just in case. There's basically 3 categories of bases to defend, based on the number of allied troops that could reach them quickly and the amount of land-based air support that could be used to support the invasions. The most obvious place for him to land is directly opposite Hokkaido, where he could practically swim across. Or he could hit just a bit farther down the coast near Sendai/Iwaki with significant land-based air support and naval support, but this area is much more dominated by my air bases in the Tokyo region. A third alternative would be to try to go around and land somewhere down the coast where the defenses are lighter. Troops and defenses are being deployed according to the threat level.

Alternatively, he could eschew Honshu (that rhymes!) altogether for now, and try to hit another area of the map (most likely Bonins/Ryukus/Formosa in support of the operation against Japan). So I do need to keep plenty of forces in reserve in case he does this. Saying I feel like I'm spread pretty thin is an understatement!

[pauk]

I would advise you not to be (over)confident about your's numerous air bases at HI. Allies will recive B29 soon, if they didnt already, and they can shut down your AFs. It will be much more difficult task than it was in Solomons, but with this current air model, "the bombers will always get trough" it is certainly doable. And he has many choices, he can put pressure on closer bases (within his fighter radius) and suddently attack your rear AFs which will be weaker defended (just one example)...

You dont have many options, except massing base forces and construction units at Home islands. I would pull out all BFs from the frontline (Burma, southern DEI, New Britain...) and move them to Home islands (anyway, Allies can shut down all your AFs at the frontline, if they want (but i suspect they will be concentrated on HI). Ofc, i would leave a significant air support at your big hubs (Bangkok and nearby bases, Singapore, oil centers...)

Where is KB at the moment? perhaps you could set an trap for Greyjoy... showing him near Hokkaido (so he will be careful with his supply transprots and navy, and he will have to strenghten his CAP - what means less fts on sweep over HI)

After that you can run under the protection of one your bases.... if you get lucky he might attack KB. With KB fighters on CAP and support from land based FTs you might hurt him (i guess, not sure with this current air combat model).