The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

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GreyJoy
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

I'll paraphrase Stalin to you,
A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths but a statistic.

As a Soviet I'd say that right now is the time to spend your men and materiel in order to achieve strategically decisive goals. If it costs you 10,000 pilots then so be it.

You are, now, at that point in time where you can trade a short period of higher operational tempo and losses for a much, much longer period of lower operational tempo and losses per unit time but, overall, higher losses.


Basically you are in the situation of Montgomery in 1944 in North-Western Europe where he simply couldn't sustain high losses per unit time but COULD sustain much higher losses spread over a long period such that losses per unit time were less. This is the logistical necessity which drove the disagreement between focused thrust vs broad front advances --- and not that egomania crap bad researchers always reach for as an easy answer.


Bottom line: Those pilots aren't your friends. They are assets to be expended in the achievement of worthwhile goals. Hell, even if they were all your friends it'd still be your job to send them to their deaths in order to achieve national policy objectives.

You stoneheart![:D]

I know you are right and i'm slowly changing my mind...but i hope you may understand my feelings...i've been following those guys and their improvements every day for nearly 1 year of RL...and nearly 900 turns of gameplay...i'm seen them struggle to remain alive during the dark days of Karachi and the Battle of India....i've seen them fighting for long months in the skies of Solomons...i've plauded at their achievements and i wept at every loss... They are not my friends, you're right....but they are my band...my crew and it's never an easy job to send your mates to death...even when you have to.

But i know i have to. And i will. It's my job. It's my duty. It's for an upper and worth goal.

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ny59giants
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by ny59giants »

Look at the four bases in NE Honshu as a 'killing field' for your troops and air force. The quality of your armor in those two clear terrain hexes will allow you to bleed his forces, regardless if he sends 2000 AV to each hex to face you. Your 2e bombers will be very effective there.
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GreyJoy
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by GreyJoy »

see why i fear the ki-83....

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GreyJoy
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Look at the four bases in NE Honshu as a 'killing field' for your troops and air force. The quality of your armor in those two clear terrain hexes will allow you to bleed his forces, regardless if he sends 2000 AV to each hex to face you. Your 2e bombers will be very effective there.

That's what i was thinking about...also answering Jeffk....i think a multiple base landing should be a good option. i have enough ships to land simultaneusly at 3 different sites in force...
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Cribtop
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by Cribtop »

This is a minor point but regarding aces wouldn't it be possible to retain an ace reserve in TRACOM or elsewhere and use trained but not elite pilots for some strat bombing missions? Particularly for the bomber escort role where you are just throwing your fighters in front of your bombers?
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krupp_88mm
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by krupp_88mm »

shouldnt japan run out of fighter pilots before the allies? especially with the waves after waves of planes hes been sending to their deaths.. or am i missing something
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Crackaces
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by Crackaces »

ORIGINAL: krupp_88mm

shouldnt japan run out of fighter pilots before the allies? especially with the waves after waves of planes hes been sending to their deaths.. or am i missing something

Your not missing anything .. in fact come to find out there are artifical restrictions to recruting pilots that the IJ player needs to be very aware of managing the pilot pool over 1941-1946. I would assume scenario #2 pushes those limits. I have no clue what this ilimit might be ...but it is not infinite. Nemo suggested a change that allows lev 1 experince pilots to be recruited to fill voids ... A funny thing about activating Kami's early is that it is quite possible depending on events to exhaust the pilot pool...

I am a newbie but have some basic level of understanding of this game, and even with a 20K above no low level night bombing HR. the IJ are in very deep trouble as long as GreyJoy does not pull off a "Goering." As the famious General Turgenson quoted "That does not mean we won't get our hair messed up .." Meaning it will not be wihtout losses but as you quite well suggest with your question .. the US has a lot more stuff to atritte away before the IJ falls apart and cannot defend herself ...

It should be fun to watch unfold over the next couple of weeks .

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khyberbill
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by khyberbill »

despite the high rate of production, is too high to be kept).
There is a high rate of production for the P47s, but only for a few (6?) months. Then you have to wait for the P51 production to kick in for a credible replacement. I would be careful with the P47s. ymmv
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Crackaces
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by Crackaces »

ORIGINAL: khyberbill
despite the high rate of production, is too high to be kept).
There is a high rate of production for the P47s, but only for a few (6?) months. Then you have to wait for the P51 production to kick in for a credible replacement. I would be careful with the P47s. ymmv

Just do I understand .. what does "careful" mean? Can you put that in context with the current IJ situation? If GreyJoy could lose say 50% more than replacement rate but totally crush the IJ's ability to defend herself -- would that qualify as prudent? Is this in context with having the opportunity to completely devastate the IJ industrial base?

Anyway ... it will be intersting to see this unfold ...






"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
House Stark
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by House Stark »

Greyjoy, don't mourn for your pilots. Any of them that die clearing the way for your bombers over the skies of Japan have not died in vain.
paulkenny
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by paulkenny »

how does the japanese player get so many planes up in the air? I can get the production, given a sole minded drive to build planes, but how does he get so many planes flying? How does he increase the size of his sentais etc?
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crsutton
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by crsutton »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

I'll paraphrase Stalin to you,
A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths but a statistic.

As a Soviet I'd say that right now is the time to spend your men and materiel in order to achieve strategically decisive goals. If it costs you 10,000 pilots then so be it.

You are, now, at that point in time where you can trade a short period of higher operational tempo and losses for a much, much longer period of lower operational tempo and losses per unit time but, overall, higher losses.


Basically you are in the situation of Montgomery in 1944 in North-Western Europe where he simply couldn't sustain high losses per unit time but COULD sustain much higher losses spread over a long period such that losses per unit time were less. This is the logistical necessity which drove the disagreement between focused thrust vs broad front advances --- and not that egomania crap bad researchers always reach for as an easy answer.


Bottom line: Those pilots aren't your friends. They are assets to be expended in the achievement of worthwhile goals. Hell, even if they were all your friends it'd still be your job to send them to their deaths in order to achieve national policy objectives.

You stoneheart![:D]

I know you are right and i'm slowly changing my mind...but i hope you may understand my feelings...i've been following those guys and their improvements every day for nearly 1 year of RL...and nearly 900 turns of gameplay...i'm seen them struggle to remain alive during the dark days of Karachi and the Battle of India....i've seen them fighting for long months in the skies of Solomons...i've plauded at their achievements and i wept at every loss... They are not my friends, you're right....but they are my band...my crew and it's never an easy job to send your mates to death...even when you have to.

But i know i have to. And i will. It's my job. It's my duty. It's for an upper and worth goal.


Nemo has a good point. You can probably start winning air battles with lesser pilots because I doubt very seriously if Rader can match you in pilot quality any more. I would focus on using lesser exp pilots and not worry about losses-even to your aces. Don't worry about diluting your pools because you are diluting his pools much faster, and a 55 exp pilot in a corsair is better than a 55 exp pilot in a George. More important to the Allies is air frames which for me seem to be short even in 1944. But by expending pilots and bombers now you are killing Japanese air frames, both existing and potential. It must be done.

You no longer need your ace of aces squadrons. It is a waste of resources now. Disperse them into other groups, send a few deserving favorites to Tracom and let the rest fight. The Allies actually were faced with this same situation in 44/45. The air groups were expanding at a tremendous rate forcing them to dilute the pilot pools and use a lot of green pilots. In the end, it did not matter much as they just saturated the air with planes, and pilots were just a commodity to be spent.
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crsutton
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by crsutton »

ORIGINAL: khyberbill
despite the high rate of production, is too high to be kept).
There is a high rate of production for the P47s, but only for a few (6?) months. Then you have to wait for the P51 production to kick in for a credible replacement. I would be careful with the P47s. ymmv


Yes, I call this the P47 gap..[:D] Production actually comes to a screeching halt after only 4 months. I guess this is due to the demands of the European invasion. It can be a problem as for a while, Allied fighter production takes a big hit. This halt of P47 production comes at a time when the P40 goes off line (60 fighters a month) so it represents a big hit in Army fighters. The loss is gradually made up with the Brit P47 coming on line (40), Australian corsairs, (25) P38L (80). However, it is not enough to make up for the loss of the Jug-the best Allied fighter. Finally, in late 44 the Allies start to get scads of corsairs and the D model Mustang and then it gets a whole lot better. However, the temptation is to use up those P47s when an astute Allied player might want to save a few for a rainy day.

The P47 is actually gone for about 8 months or so when the N model comes on line in early 45. Funny how that works as the Brits continue to get a constant flow. However, the N model is worth the wait. It is scary fast....[X(]

The thing I have always hated about scen 2 is the rigid Allied production schedules.
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GreyJoy
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by GreyJoy »

Hi guys....always hard to catch up with all your comments[:)].
 
Yes, i'm trying to save my aces and diluite them into several squadrons so to have a good average among every squadron in the front lines.
 
Yes...P-47s will become a luxury very soon...i know...but i need them right now in order to burn as many japanese factories as possible. The Ki-83 is my primary goal cause i think Rader has accelerated it already and i don't wanna face it. As soon as we get most of the KI-83 production out of the equation we'll be able to concentrate on other targets (Shindens and jet fighters).
 
Anyway...when the P-47D25 will be out of production?
 
About Rader's pools...sincerly i don't know...he has shown me many times his ability to replace his losses without any problem so i think all our assumptions about Japan running out of pilots/planes have been and are totally wrong. It's far better to stick on our targets and concentrate on our own problems
 
A carrier division is spotted near Aukland...wonder what is he looking there???[&:]
 
Tomorrow we'll bomb Nagaoka (2 hexes north of Tokyo, 1 hex north of Meabashi).
We'll bomb the KI-83 (51) factory there and two KI-201 research factories.
200 P-47D25 and 100 P-47D2 will sweep, while 100 Corsairs will LRCAP. No escort this time.
 
This is the closest a/c factory to Hakkodate...the "easiest" possible target....
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GreyJoy
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by GreyJoy »

May 25, 26 1944

Rader badly wants to evacuate Russell.... after having sent several PBs and xAKLs that got sunk now he sent a fast transport TF with 2 CAs and 1 CL...they suprised my DD division based at Tulagi and managed to sink the CL Detroit in a one way engagement... his LRCAP from Shortland prevented my SDBs to get close enough and we ended the day with only 1 enemy DD badly damaged (probably sunk ) and with 1 CL and one DD short...not a good day. His CAs already left after having evacuated most of the combat units from russell...

Well...i won't weep...my defences aren't that strong anymore in SOPAC and that was nearly the bext i could do...

40 Oscars Kamikaze attacked my ships at Munda...at least half of them got killed and the other missed the targets...



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Panggoe at 112,132, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Takao
CA Chokai, Shell hits 1
CL Tenryu
DD Okinami, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Hayashio
DD Arashi, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Kosukaze, Shell hits 1
DD Yamanakaze

Allied Ships
CL Detroit, Shell hits 11, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Meredith, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Hammann
DD Craven, Shell hits 1
DD Lang
DD Wilson
DD Voyager
DD Arunta



Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions: 20,000 yards
Range closes to 24,000 yards...
Range closes to 18,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 18,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 18,000 yards
Tanaka, Raizo crosses the 'T'

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Munda at 111,134

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 25



Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 8
Kittyhawk III x 6
Spitfire Vc Trop x 7
Spitfire VIII x 4
P-38H Lightning x 7
P-39N1 Airacobra x 2
P-40N5 Warhawk x 16
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 7
P-51A Mustang x 7
F4U-1 Corsair x 1
F4U-1A Corsair x 6
F6F-3 Hellcat x 22


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 15 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
CL Gambia
DD Aylwin
DD Clark




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Rekata Bay at 112,135

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 42 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 22
Ki-84a Frank x 25



Allied aircraft
A-24B Banshee x 15
F6F-3 Hellcat x 25


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
A-24B Banshee: 2 destroyed, 5 damaged
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Takao
CA Chokai
DD Hayashio, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires




Poor detroit...she finally ended her career...she fought bravely throughtout the whole war and she got mauled many times...but she always was able to get back into action....this time her luck was over and the proud ship has found her death...very close to Yamato and Haruna's graves

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GreyJoy
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by GreyJoy »

two days of severe storms prevented any possible mission in Central Japan....[:o]
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khyberbill
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by khyberbill »

what does "careful" mean
I put my best pilots in P47 squadrons, in fact, I prepare these squadrons months in advance of the arrival of the P47D25. I try to restrict their operation to sweeps at 42k and I stand down the squadrons when fatigue gets above 25 or so. Generally I sweep targets for a few days before bombing.
"Its a dog eat dog world Sammy and I am wearing Milkbone underwear" -Norm.
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Crackaces
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by Crackaces »

ORIGINAL: khyberbill
what does "careful" mean
I put my best pilots in P47 squadrons, in fact, I prepare these squadrons months in advance of the arrival of the P47D25. I try to restrict their operation to sweeps at 42k and I stand down the squadrons when fatigue gets above 25 or so. Generally I sweep targets for a few days before bombing.

That seems like a plan .. what I was thinking was the concept of saving these assest because they are limited .. right now there is no better oppournity to crush the IJ ..

I see GreyJoy is very concerned that Rader can keep this level of offense up forever . and as Nemo has pointed out in postings .. there is a game limit of the total number of pilots .. a good look at the losses and a WitP Tracker of a non "MP" game and one can see where that limit might be ..I would think now is the time to kill as many pilots as possible using as Nemo suggested .. ..

The IJ have to plan out their usage to last until '46 .. it is clear Rader has not done so and a limit exists ..Michealm will not be changing this very soon since his laptop went defunct :)
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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JohnDillworth
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by JohnDillworth »

Michealm will not be changing this very soon since his laptop went defunct :)
Well that about does it for me. We are all spending way too much time on this AAR and every possible nuance mapped out. I have Christmas shopping to do, a couple of good football games coming up and I am checking this AAR every hour. I am worthless and weak.[:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
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GreyJoy
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RE: HOkkaido conquered

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Michealm will not be changing this very soon since his laptop went defunct :)
Well that about does it for me. We are all spending way too much time on this AAR and every possible nuance mapped out. I have Christmas shopping to do, a couple of good football games coming up and I am checking this AAR every hour. I am worthless and weak.[:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]

ahhahaha! I'm glad you have been sucked so much in here [:D]


Ok guys, changed again target. Nagaoka will wait. We spotted Hiroshima with what seem to be very little defences.... it's clearly out of P-47 and Corsairs range (16 hexes) but enough for my P-38s. 100 of them will sweep, followed by 400 4Es. Targets are the Shinden R&R factory and manpower. Let's see if i can make some collateral damages.... If my recon isn't mistaken only 55 fighters are actually based there with the closest weel defended city being Osaka...so it's possible that CAP won't be so deadly....my P-47s will wait for another raid. In the meanwhile CAP and rest for them
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