Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Nemo121]

Actually, at some point in time ( I believe I mentioned it near the start of this AAR ) I did the math that if he captured everything except Palembang he would capture enough to run his HI at full blast indefinitely.

If there are disastrous levels of damage elsewhere in oilfields he takes that might change obviously but, basically, the normal stuff he can take ( minus north China ) feeds his normal economy. Palembang gives his room to expand.

I don't say this is what your opponent planned but I'm sure he has done the math since and realised that, actually, he can run his HI at pretty much full bore unless you begin killing his oilfields in Burma, Malaysia and the DEI.


As to Japan not winning... Japan can't win anyway. On the other hand it DOES have the option, at this stage, of cutting its cloth to measure and fighting a strong defensive war. I don't think that your opponent has done that but if you were facing a top class player now I'm sure they would have rationalised their production ( stopping the CVs due in '44 in order to build up strong HI reserves ) and focused on IJA and airframe production with a view to being able to survive well into 1945.

In Downfall the Japanese total HI production is just some 6,100 HI per day. I am utilising that HI to re-equip the IJA and build just under 2,500 planes per month. Without any HI expansion your opponent has 12,000 HI per day to play with. If he goes purely defensive you'd be amazed at how much of a reserve he can build up whilst still maintaining a very strong air force, army and surface raiding component ( albeit he'd have to sacrifice building subs and anything heavier than a DD ).

Personally I think it is more likely he is just confused and inactive than following such a path BUT it is possible and a top tier player would, I think, be optimising his economy for the long game in just that way.... so I think it behoves you to be aware of the possibility.

[Canoerebel]

That's the crux of Steve's problem - nearly all his oil fields are or will soon be within range of Allied 4EB.  The Allies can't strategic bomb until 1944, but can prohibit enemy shipping from using ports like Balikpan, Brunei and Medan.  Steve can't permit that to happen.  He has to stop the ongoing Allied expansion in the Java Sea (and eventually into south Borneo).

[Nemo121]

Agreed. If he were a top tier player those 3 months would have allowed him a proper pause to put a plan in place to do so. As it is you'll infiltrate around the ad hoc solutions he has in place.

[JeffroK]

I bet he has fortified the Kuriles & Hokkaido.
 
Now might be the time to emulate GJ and scrutinise every japanese held base and look for the weak spot, you might not be in a position to use it at the moment  but better to know it now than in 12 mths when you feel ready for a big push.
 
You mention a HR about no strat bombing, probably a reasonable rule at 7/12/41 but now with you occupying 50%?? of his Oil hamstrings what would be a reasonable tactic.
 
With far from complete knowledge of the situation, I have an inkling for a push across Borneo to the southern Phillipines linking with a push from PM & Darwin to open your routes into the Home Islands. I believe a South China Seas approach runs into a funnel with Formosa as a stopper.

[princep01]

Hummmmm....is someone sick.....out of town....why all the lollygagging?

[Canoerebel]

Hey, gents.  I'm in the midst of one of those things that we all face from time to time.  My wife's mother was fatally injured in a car accident late Friday afternoon (I got the news just as I was sitting down to run a turn).  She passed away early Saturday morning.  The funeral is Thursday.  Despite the sadness of the situation, the family is doing very well, in large part becuase of their strong faith and the outpouring of love from a big family and close-knit community.
 
If possible, don't even reply to this.  All of us face these things on occasion, and we seldom share them in the forums, and perhaps I shouldn't have.  But I just wanted to let you guys know.  I'll be back up and running late this week. During occasional intervals, I have visited the forums, primarily to check in on GJ's game.  One thing he said (which will be taken up by the Kangaroo Court in due time) made me laugh out loud. 

[JeffroK]

Very sorry to hear this, sometimes we all forget that real life intervenes into our fantasy world on the forums.

[Canoerebel]

9/22/42 and 9/23/42
 
NoPac:  IJ combat (or fast transport) TF heading to Amchitka.  The CA Chester TF will oppose, but it may get whipped.  No moves on Paramushiro yet.  BBs Hiei, Nagato and Kongo bombarded on the 22nd, ineffectively, and follow up IJ airstrikes got treated badly by Alied CAP.
 
SWPac:  Milne Bay airfield and port go to level one on the 23rd.  The final TF carrying troops will unload tonight.  No signs of detection or reaction.
 
DEI:  All ships that brought troops to Billiton finished unloading and are retiring to Oosthaven.  Enemy troops outside Padang withstand attack by Aussie brigade.  BB Royal Sovereign at Colombo is almost ready for duty.  The Allies are about ready to buy an Indian division (prepping for Singkawang) and then transport it from Cochin, India, to Oosthaven.  Everything looks "peaceful" here at the moment.
 
Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.
 
SigInt:  Reports that 52nd and Imperial Guards divisions are on marus bound for Manila.  This could be cleverly craft deception.  If it's true - if Steve is attending to his inner perimeter in September 1942 - he's lost his mojo.  Were I that desperate, I think I would just develop the craftiest, most ridiculous "pull and inside straight" plan possible and then, when it failed, surrender honorably.

[Canoerebel]

9/24/42
 
NoPac:  CA Chester TF tangled with CL Oi TF near Amchitka, with Chester eating a torp and taking very heavy damage.  She might not make it back to Adak.
 
CenPac:  No major enemy operations apparent.
 
SoPac:  No major enemy operations apparent.
 
SWPac:  Allied AV at Milne Bay up to 385.  The final transport TF will finish unloading tomorrow and then depart.  Milne is now a signficiant speed bump.
 
DEI:  A squadron of SCs fresh from the USA are nearing Oosthaven.  On the way in, they tangled with and damaged an IJ sub.  II Fighter HQ has arrived at Praebemolith, midway between Oost and Palembang.  I'm hoping this will strengthen Allied air operations for the eventual battle of Sumatra, should that actually take place in this game.
 
Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.
 
China:  Two 50-expierience Chinese units mauled Japan's 61st Brigade north of Sinyang.  As a result of the prolonged campaigning in China since April, many Chinese units now have experience in the 50s, which means they are a different animal in battle. 

[Canoerebel]

9/25/42
 
NoPac:  Chester might make Adak after all.  Still awaiting an IJ counterinvasion before winter sets in.

CenPac:  No sign of IJ moves under way.

SoPac:  No sign of IJ moves under way.

SWPac:  The last of the transports are weighing anchor at Milne Bay to retire to Oz.

DEI:  A handful of SCs are about to arrive at Oost.  They will be used to try to evacuate several badly damaged capital ships including a BB and two CA.  I'll try to shepherd these ships to Cocos and then on to Colombo or Capetown.

Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.  Allied forces are still moving to try to isolate this base.  More Allied troops are crossing the jungle from India to join the campaign around Magwe.

Score:  Japan 20k.  Allies 17.5k.

[princep01]

CR, I am glad to see you posting again and that things have settled down enough to allow time for it after the tragedy.

I do wonder what the LYBs are up too. It is very quiet around the map here in late September. One has to think that time is running short for the LYBs to launch a meaningful offensive outside the Kuriles. He may be planning some desparate measure. Keep the "sniffers" at 100% and double them up where you can. To quote, "I'm getting a bad feeling about this".

[paullus99]

I would love to see Chaz do some kind of "Hail Mary" offensive - though at this point, anything in the DEI is going to be into the teeth of your prepared defenses. Australia is not really an option based on your positions at Port Moresby & Milne Bay. If he does try for Hawaii, it will commit a significant amount of resources in exactly the wrong direction.

I would expect that he's bunkered down & preparing defenses - with maybe operations to take back a couple of key bases from you.

[Canoerebel]

It would be fun if Steve pulled a truly clever operation, and I've expected one all along, but the odds are decreasing as the calendar progresses.

At this point in the game, there is only one game-changing option available to him: Invade India. That's not going to happen. He would need to control the sea and he doesn't and can't. And, at this point, the Allies have had too much time to build forts and airfields. India is no longer available.

The most realistic way for him to hurt the Allies is to suck it up and invade Sumatra. I don't think he can succeed at this late date, but if he did, and if he destroyed the Allied army there, it would certainly be a blow.

The next best option for him would be Oz. This continent is wide open - defended only by Aussie troops - but Steve doesn't know that. The fact that Americans are now in strength at Milne Bay would help deceive him about the presence of Americans in Oz, should he find out. A massive invasion into the Brisbane area would succeed, but it's a long shot. A massive invasion in the Perth region is less liekly since Steve knows I have the Allied carriers not too far away. But a massive invasion of Oz really isn't a threat to the Allies at this point.

No other invasion would be a concern to the Allies, even if successful. New Zealand and Hawaii, for instance, just pale in comparison to Sumatra and Borneo. If Steve commits in force somewhere distant, the Allies would simply expedite expansion into the Java Sea region.

[zuluhour]

Just checking in to say hello. It appears that if there is going to be major battle, you will have to initiate it. I would guess, at this rate, for it to be a substantial battle, with all the trimmings, it will begin around page 125.

[Canoerebel]

9/26/42

Zuluhour: You may be right. Were I the Japanese player; were I to get off to a very halting start; were I to be mired down; well, I think at that point I would prefer an honorable banzai! charge over a slow, lingering death. But I have not been able to get inside Steve's head in this game. I don't know what he's thinking.

NoPac: CA Chester should make Adak Island tomorrow.

CenPac: Nothing going on - just USN subs moving in and out of Pearl and Midway.

SoPac: The Big Quiet has settled in here, too.

SWPac: All ships except a lone xAK have retired from Milne.

DEI: Six SCs have arrived at Oosthaven, where they led skirmishes with at least three IJ subs. Oost forts at 8.92. Palembang forts at 8.89. They'll both hit 9 in a few days, at which time the Allies will begina big repositioning of the stack of engineering units at both bases. Moving engineeers north to Toboali and Billtion will expedite the building of airfields. As those airfields become larger they will enable the Allies to then occupy and build Ketapang and Pontianak. BB South Dakota is enroute from Capetown to Cocos Island. Damaged BB North Carolina is in the yards at Capetown for six months worth of repairs, but I'm very relieved she made it.

Burma: The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.

[bradfordkay]

Steve likes to expand to a defensive perimeter and then hang on tooth and nail. In your game he never got the defensive perimeter that he likes, but I am assuming that he has gone into that mindset already.

Did you get a turn yesterday?

[Canoerebel]

9/27/42

NoPac: Allied fighers, mainly P-39s, are consistently giving better than they take in the skies of Paramushiro. No sign yet of an imminent enemy move.

CenPac and SoPac: The Big Quiets continue.

SwPac: The Allies would like to buy some restricted Aussie unit and ship them to Port Moresby, but the build up in Sumatra and the Java Sea is higher priority.

DEI: The Allies are about to begin evacuating damaged capital ships from Oosthaven. The first to depart is lightly damaged CA Dorsetshire. The Allies are ready to buy an Indian division at Cochin. Transports are in place to bring it to this theater. At this point, I am leaning strongly to forgetting a move on Sibolga (the lightly held enemy base west of Padang, Sumatra) in favor of sending troops to the critical Java Sea bases like Ketapang, Pontianak, and Billiton Island. Those bases are where the hottest fighting should take place in coming weeks and months, unless my opponent is truly willing to concede essentially all oil. I'm hoping that Steve might commit a major force, including carriers, in NoPac in October, giving the Allies some weeks or a month of freedom to reinforce these Java Sea bases. Given that amount of time, those bases will become essentially impregnable - strongly held by ground troops and within the air umbrella of eastern Sumatra and Billiton Island, which will reach level two tomorrow.

Burma: The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues. The Allies continue to work on flanking movements.

[AcePylut]

You're int he DEI in force, in '42. Time for the IJN to concede, less they face a slow, painful, death by starvation.. I believe

[Canoerebel]

9/28/42

The pace of the gradual Allied transition from the defensive to the offensive in the DEI is about to pick up, so I'm looking forward to seeing how things go in the coming days and weeks.

Padang, Sumatra: Aussie infantry and tanks, joined by USMC tanks, won a small but important battle two hexes west of this base, throwing back a Japanese infantry regiment and two battalions. The combat report showed that the enemy units were low on supply, which is what I wanted to see. I am hoping - in fact I am counting on - the fact that Steve will find it difficult and perhaps impossible to supply an army large enough to threaten Fortress Sumatra via overland campaign from the west.

Oosthaven and Palembang: Oost forts go to level nine tomorrow, with Palembang to follow in two or three days. This will complete construction activity at both bases, freeing up ten engineer units for new duty. Four of these units, two at each base, will remain in place to handle any future damage inflicted during air raids. Two more unit will report to Lahat and Benkolen to help with construction efforts there. The rest will be divided between Muntok, Toboali, and Billiton Island, expediting base-building activity at those important sites in the Java Sea. They are important because, once each airfield is built large, the Allies can move in force on southern Borneo ports.

Damaged Ship Evacuation: CA Dorsetshire made it away from Oosthaven in good order. CA Pensacola will follow tonight. She is also in good shape, so I'm not worried about her. But soon will come the turn of the more heavily damaged ships, including CA Salt Lake City and BB Revenge. Japanese subs continue to visit Oost, probably on mining missions, with Allied ASW getting in some good licks.

Burma: The Allies won another small land battle on the flank of Magwe, where a UK Brigade pushed back 55th Cav. Regiment. The Japanese position at Magwe is threatened by flankers to the rear, both north and south. Steve will have to bring more units to bear to protect his rear, or he'll have to retire from Magwe.

NoPac: Hiei, Nagato and Kongo bombard Paramushiro once again...and again ineffectively. Good to see them up here, as it suggest Japan will move on Para and Onne before winter (why I think that's good is set forth in my preceeding post).

CenPac: The Big Quiet continues.

SoPac: Small enemy carrier-plane raid with Kates and Zeros sinks AKL Vichy, on picket duty south of Noumea.

SWPac: Quiet at Milne Bay.

[Canoerebel]

9/29/42

September is sliding away. Can it be October? Can it be that the Allies have a firm grip on eastern Sumatra? A weird, weird game it is.

Oosthaven Campaign: Forts reach level nine. The Oosthaven Campaign began as a key game of chicken in which the Allies prevailed. Both sides committed major combat ships in a two or three month battle to achieve supremacy here. Japan probably could have won, but Steve tired of the damage done to his cruisers and battleships and eventually backed down. This has given the Allies three or four months of uncontested use of this key port - use to build land reinforcements, to embark troops bound for the bases to the north, and a port in which damaged ships have pumped out water. Dorsetshire and Pensacola are safely away. BB Revenge departs tonight. Soon, the Allies will change the guard - pulling out many of the capital ships (and DDs that need upgrading) and replacing them with new ships - a change just meant to keep Steve from getting to comfortable in his knowledge about what he faces. BBs Washington, South Dakota, and Ramillies are on the way to theater, with BB Royal Sovereiign at Colombo, 16 days from being ready for duty.

Allied Carriers: The Allied carriers (escept Wasp, which is currently at Kodiak Island) have been on patrol duty south of Sumatra more or less for months now (with occasional detachments to Colombo to upgrade). I have considered, from time to time, sending them elsewhere, but always I end up concluding that the DEI is where the war is being decided, so they are better used there. October upgrades are due, so I will likely send the carriers to Colombo, one or two at a time.

Burma: The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.

NoPac: I am assuming Steve is getting ready to pull the trigger ona Para/Onne counterinvasion. If he fails to do so, the Allies have the assets in place to reinforce and resupply those bases when winter conditions set in. The plan is to use the winter to reinforce strongly.

Rest of the Pacific: The Big Quiet continues.