Empire of the Rising Lemon? SqzMyLemon (Japan) v Smeulders (Allies)

[SqzMyLemon]

We are about to run the turn for Dec. 30/42 and I'll start updating again when we hit 1943.

Allied efforts remain focused on the Gilbert's. Tabiteuea is expanding both port and airbase facilities. Recon indicates eight enemy LCU's occupy the base. I still hold the surrounding islands, but the garrisons are just fragments of Naval Guard units and supply is an issue. It's time to move and isolate Tabiteuea. I expect another Allied move any day now, but it's time to throw the Allies a curveball.

Ships have been upgrading and I'm trying to get the carriers quickly converted to A6M3a's, but the pace of conversion has been slow with production not having fully kicked in yet. I have a large batch of DD's available in a few days after upgrades, but have to decide whether to proceed with the ships due for upgrade in 1/43. I think it best to commence offensive operations against the Allies now and wait to send the survivors back for upgrades later.

Truk has been replenished with 100k tons of fuel with more on the way. There is enough for me to begin operations in the theatre, but I must get more fuel to forward bases. I'm completely overhauling my fuel transportation system and deploying more AO's forward to support fleet operations. Fuel stocks are in great shape in the Home Islands, but I must get more fuel/oil out of Java. Balikpapan and Tarakan are supplying Truk, while Miri and Palembang continue to ship fuel/oil to Singapore for transportation back to Japan proper. Fuel at Port Arthur is low and I may have to start diverting fuel to mainland China to keep the HI producing at 100%.

I've been expanding HI at Batavia and Soerabja on Java, Singapore, Bangkok and Saigon to take advantage of the ready supply of fuel. Hong Kong, Shanghai, Port Arthur and Keijo have also been expanding. With the low fuel stocks at Port Arthur all future HI expansion is on hold until I increase the fuel levels.

Allies are also in the process of assaulting Bhamo. The base still holds, but forts are low and when the B-24's are ordered to hit the base my forces suffer high disruption. I'm rushing reinforcements to the base, but I fear it will be too little to late. I have completely misplayed Burma the entire game. I've cancelled the 1st Tank and 38th Division's planned move on Kunming and ordered them back to the Burma front. Losing Bhamo will hurt, but if the Allies open a direct supply path to China I'll be in trouble. I must prevent that at all cost. I've gotten lucky on occasion when Allied bombers fly while their sweeps are grounded. I mauled a force of Wellington's and Mitchell's a few days ago. Something like 25 enemy bombers were downed for the loss of a few fighters. I've found to my surprise the Oscar IIa is performing better than the Nick's and Tojo's against the bombers. The Tojo's are easily damaged and out of the fight, the Nick's don't arrive in sufficient numbers and are also easily damaged. The Oscar's have performed admirably and despite such poor armament are the actual bomber killers, against the 2E's at least. The B-24's simply shred my fighters and I down one bomber for a loss of 2-3 fighters.

In China, I've withdrawn back across the river. My planned offensive was a disaster. My divisions are simply taking too long to recover from the initial river assault and the Chinese can reinforce at will. My AV is tied up in stalemate, preventing me from moving forward. The decision to withdraw was a tough one, but I think it will give me back the flexibility I need to advance once again. I will not redeploy to the North as mentioned perviously, but continue offensive operations in Southern China. Changteh will be isolated and the Chinese have split a large stack in two around Chihkiang and I hope to take advantage of that. To date I haven't commited much armour against the Chinese, but I have the equivalent of two tank divisions in reserve that will now be deployed.

I'm going to stick to advancing along major roads for speed of movement and supply. This will allow me to replace my losses quicker and take advantage of weakly supplied Chinese units. I have almost 300 bombers dedicated to China and am hitting targets daily. Right now I'm concentrating on supply hits at Changteh and disrupting a Chinese unit N.E. of the base in preparation for an assault to force it back across the river. I'm going to use manuever, as I won't be able to bludgeon the Chinese in rough terrain. A valuable, yet costly, lesson for me. Ignore defensive terrain benefits at your peril.

Screens will follow and a proper update on the status of the economy with production numbers and stockpiles. I may cut back on engine production somewhat as many comments in Greyjoy's AAR have me concerned about the eventual Allied strategic bombing of Japan. I'm 100% sure that there will be no attempt tp invade Japan proper by Smeulders. He'll manuever to gain airbases and simply pound me into submission. Why risk ships and men when all he needs to use are bombers. That being said, if I produce huge stockpiles of engines vs airframes, I'll have wasted the HI if the Allies target aircraft production factories. As Nemo points out, if the factories are untouched I'll be able to produce aircraft as long as engine pools remain, however if the aircraft factories are targeted those engines will never get used. A waste of HI. Interesting times ahead.

A note on the game. The pace has slowed considerably. We get a turn completed every 2-3 days. The time of the year is a big factor and also the fact Smeulders is now working and also has two PBEM going as do I. I'm also spending much more time on my other hobby, model building. I'm devoting way too much time to this game at times and other interests of mine are suffering. I'm trying to re-establish a balance, as there are only so many hours in a day. I'll do my best to update regularly again. To those enjoying the AAR I apologize for the slow pace and lack of updates.

[PaxMondo]

Welcome back! Missed you. Can't wait for more detailed updates.

[SqzMyLemon]

Finally have reached 1943 and it's time to start updating again. Just a few screenshots to start bringing things up to date, more to follow over the course of the holidays.

Merry Christmas everyone!

Burma:

[SqzMyLemon]

Southern China:

[freeboy]

the river is the problem.. really you will never be able to cross and keep supplies flowing.. it has to, imo, be a port and invasion.. and why? you will never dent India..
your best bet is to prepare for the 44 45 counter attacks...
remember there are no roads rails over the river.. its a killer.. and works both ways.. great defensive barrier...

[SqzMyLemon]

Here's the current state of Japanese industry and pool numbers. Any suggestions on the numbers are always welcome, and please ask if you'd like to know any other information that I don't provide.

[SqzMyLemon]

Tracker.

[SqzMyLemon]

Global trend.

[SqzMyLemon]

Naval Production.

The SS 1-12 being accelerated isn't accurate as the game ship building que indicates production should be at at normal, I'll look into this. As you can see I still have a surplus of naval build points and will continue to scale down production by shutting off factories. I'm pretty much accelerating everything being built with naval points except submarines. I don't know if it will be worth starting to accelerate the remaining late war carriers?

[SqzMyLemon]

Engine Production. Ha-31 production was turned off for some reason, I'll be restarting it as I have zero Sonia's left in the pool. The Ki-46-III uses the Ha-33 unlike it's predecessor the II.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Here's the current state of Japanese industry and pool numbers. Any suggestions on the numbers are always welcome, and please ask if you'd like to know any other information that I don't provide.

Hiya SqzMyLemon,

First off, congratulations to making it into 1943. So few PBEMs even get *this* far-so it's an achievement to be credited! Nicely done. I'm sure that 1943 will see the Allied dogs roundly defeated. Yessirree! [;)]

My thoughts on your January 1 numbers based upon my very limited personal experience (n=1) from my GC PBEMs that have gone that far:

Manpower: Fine.
HI: Low. I had between 1.1-1.2M HI moving into 1943.
LI: No opinion.
Refinery: No opinion. You haven't shut down any in the home islands, have you? Why 1062 disabled production still?
Oil: Low. I'd like this to be >1.5M, 2.0M would be better yet. Are you 'burning' too much of the home island reserves because you're not getting Oil in in quantity?
Resources: Fine.
Armament: OK.
Vehicle: Low. You'll want to increase this to replace antiquated armored units, fill out damaged ones.
Engines: You've disabled or shut off 1/3 of your engine production? Why? Now's the time to be gearing *up* production of engines and-when the time is right-airframes. This production looks low, IMO.
Air: Same as Engines, but worse. You've disabled or turned off 2/3 of your available production?

Hard to believe that you've already stocked the cupboards with mountains of IJAAF kamikaze 1 and 2EB kamikazes already. Do you have 200-300 TBs, DBs and carrier fighters available to replace losses from a carrier battle right away or would you have to wait to get suitable numbers of replacement planes and pilots into the units?

Small example: what is your fighter production of the Tojo IIa and the A6M3a? In my opinion, the former should be at or above 150/month and the latter should be nearly 100 / month.

Quite frankly, I don't know how to read the NavSY or the Merchant SY figures.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


Hiya SqzMyLemon,

Vehicle: Low. You'll want to increase this to replace antiquated armored units, fill out damaged ones.
Engines: You've disabled or shut off 1/3 of your engine production? Why? Now's the time to be gearing *up* production of engines and-when the time is right-airframes. This production looks low, IMO.
Air: Same as Engines, but worse. You've disabled or turned off 2/3 of your available production?

Hard to believe that you've already stocked the cupboards with mountains of IJAAF kamikaze 1 and 2EB kamikazes already. Do you have 200-300 TBs, DBs and carrier fighters available to replace losses from a carrier battle right away or would you have to wait to get suitable numbers of replacement planes and pilots into the units?

Small example: what is your fighter production of the Tojo IIa and the A6M3a? In my opinion, the former should be at or above 150/month and the latter should be nearly 100 / month.

VEH - Agree. low. pump them up some
Engines/Air: I assume you are in the midst of upgrades/model changes?
NSY:OK
MSY: prolly have more than you will need for the rest of the war ... I'd shut off to help build HI.

HI: Your biggest issue as CB notes. It's low and it doesn't look like you are pushing your economy here. So, either you've been really unlucky in conquest (lot of damaged HI that you are slow to repair) OR you have really changed a LOT of a/c factories around more than you should (thus burning up HI). Anyway, in '43 you should be running 3K/day HI surplus (about 1M surplus for the year). Minimum. Mike Solli would have figured out how to squirrel away +4M by now. [:D] Me? I'm not nearly that good, but I try to target 3-4M HI before I lose DEI ....

[SqzMyLemon]

Japanese Navy air production.

[SqzMyLemon]

Japanese Army air production.

[SqzMyLemon]

Hi Chickenboy and Pax,

Here are aricraft production numbers and before you say anything, yes they are low! [:D]

This is my problem, and it could be simply from not knowing how PDF OFF will affect the later game, but I simply don't know what aircraft I need to produce for the end game. Since I can't downgrade aircraft and can only upgrade along future airframe paths, is there a need to produce large numbers of early aircraft? I know many air units slated for 1944 and 45 start out saying A6M2's, Nate's and early bombers, but when that time comes around would you not be better served converting them to the latest models available?

Pax, I have had to change some air production around which has been wasteful, but I think not as much as implied. I probably used large HI reserves with my early naval shipyard expansion early in the game.

Chickenboy, I don't know why 1000+ refinery points are disabled. Miri is repairing oil and not refinery capacity, but other than that everything else is producing with nothing turned off. I'm monkeying around with engine production and actually have turned back on much of what was turned off. You can now see my plane pools and see my stockpiles. Val's and Kate's were toned down in anticipation of high Judy and Jill production mid-year. I'm waiting for the Tojo IIb and Oscar IIb to be available and will ramp up production accordingly.

I got burned with A6M2 production as I didn't realize you needed the A6M3 factories to produce the A6M3a. I thought the A6M2 could convert to the A6M3a. That is why I have 200+ Zero capacity turned off since I don't need that many A6M2's until I convert the factory over to Sen-Baku's.

I have found PDU OFF simply unforgiving in terms of air production. I want to be cranking out hundreds of airframe a month, but since I can't convert the majority of my Sentai's to aircraft of my choice I feel forced to scale production back until I can produce the right aircraft in the appropriate numbers. I have no idea if I'm going about this the wrong way...I just don't know the end game at all to understand the consequences of things now, if that makes sense?

I'll have to invest more supply and HI to sort things out as I can now expand certain factories along the proper paths without having to start from scratch. I can ramp up my Tojo production as the IIb is not that far away. Same with the A6M3a's and Oscar's IIa's as they'll convert along the proper paths now.

Totally muddling along, but I'm really struggling understanding the implications of air production under PDU OFF, and the inability to downgrade air units to previous models.

Thanks for the input, your comments and advice are invaluable in learning this side of the game.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Hi Chickenboy and Pax,

Here are aricraft production numbers and before you say anything, yes they are low! [:D]

This is my problem, and it could be simply from not knowing how PDF OFF will affect the later game, but I simply don't know what aircraft I need to produce for the end game. Since I can't downgrade aircraft and can only upgrade along future airframe paths, is there a need to produce large numbers of early aircraft? I know many air units slated for 1944 and 45 start out saying A6M2's, Nate's and early bombers, but when that time comes around would you not be better served converting them to the latest models available?

Pax, I have had to change some air production around which has been wasteful, but I think not as much as implied. I probably used large HI reserves with my early naval shipyard expansion early in the game.

Chickenboy, I don't know why 1000+ refinery points are disabled. Miri is repairing oil and not refinery capacity, but other than that everything else is producing with nothing turned off. I'm monkeying around with engine production and actually have turned back on much of what was turned off. You can now see my plane pools and see my stockpiles. Val's and Kate's were toned down in anticipation of high Judy and Jill production mid-year. I'm waiting for the Tojo IIb and Oscar IIb to be available and will ramp up production accordingly.

I got burned with A6M2 production as I didn't realize you needed the A6M3 factories to produce the A6M3a. I thought the A6M2 could convert to the A6M3a. That is why I have 200+ Zero capacity turned off since I don't need that many A6M2's until I convert the factory over to Sen-Baku's.

I have found PDU OFF simply unforgiving in terms of air production. I want to be cranking out hundreds of airframe a month, but since I can't convert the majority of my Sentai's to aircraft of my choice I feel forced to scale production back until I can produce the right aircraft in the appropriate numbers. I have no idea if I'm going about this the wrong way...I just don't know the end game at all to understand the consequences of things now, if that makes sense?

I'll have to invest more supply and HI to sort things out as I can now expand certain factories along the proper paths without having to start from scratch. I can ramp up my Tojo production as the IIb is not that far away. Same with the A6M3a's and Oscar's IIa's as they'll convert along the proper paths now.

Totally muddling along, but I'm really struggling understanding the implications of air production under PDU OFF, and the inability to downgrade air units to previous models.

Thanks for the input, your comments and advice are invaluable in learning this side of the game.

OK. That makes sense. I keep forgetting you're playing with PDU off (you poor sot).

I recommend NOT upgrading to the Tojo IIb just yet. The 40mm cannon in it is a true POS and it doesn't do any good. The Tojo IIc is a useful & well-armed plane, but the IIb can be held off. The Tojo IIa will carry the water for you much of 1943. You'll need thousands of them. Build now, build fast. Those Oscar Ic (IIa is only a little better) blow by comparison. Keep building 'em for Kamikazes though...

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

This is my problem, and it could be simply from not knowing how PDF OFF will affect the later game, but I simply don't know what aircraft I need to produce for the end game. Since I can't downgrade aircraft and can only upgrade along future airframe paths, is there a need to produce large numbers of early aircraft? I know many air units slated for 1944 and 45 start out saying A6M2's, Nate's and early bombers, but when that time comes around would you not be better served converting them to the latest models available?

Ok, so here is the catch 22: Yes, you would always LIKE to have the best ac, BUT when you can burn through 1000 ac as kami in a week, you can't be making them in '45. You have to have made them all along back in 42/43/44. Make sense? This is why most of the kami units come into the game with early ac types so that you can upgrade them as you need.

So, basically, you need to build excess of things that will carry AT LEAST a 250 kg bomb. That's why leaving the A6M2 factories idle until end game when they can upgrade to Sen Baku is a viable strategy. It is a GOOD kami.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
Pax, I have had to change some air production around which has been wasteful, but I think not as much as implied. I probably used large HI reserves with my early naval shipyard expansion early in the game.

I'm monkeying around with engine production and actually have turned back on much of what was turned off. You can now see my plane pools and see my stockpiles. Val's and Kate's were toned down in anticipation of high Judy and Jill production mid-year. I'm waiting for the Tojo IIb and Oscar IIb to be available and will ramp up production accordingly.

Vals and Kates make good kami's .... letting them run can also be a good strategy.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I got burned with A6M2 production as I didn't realize you needed the A6M3 factories to produce the A6M3a. I thought the A6M2 could convert to the A6M3a. That is why I have 200+ Zero capacity turned off since I don't need that many A6M2's until I convert the factory over to Sen-Baku's.

Yeah, I remember that happening...

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I have found PDU OFF simply unforgiving in terms of air production. I want to be cranking out hundreds of airframe a month, but since I can't convert the majority of my Sentai's to aircraft of my choice I feel forced to scale production back until I can produce the right aircraft in the appropriate numbers. I have no idea if I'm going about this the wrong way...I just don't know the end game at all to understand the consequences of things now, if that makes sense?

Actually, don't think your ac production is all that bad ...

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I'll have to invest more supply and HI to sort things out as I can now expand certain factories along the proper paths without having to start from scratch. I can ramp up my Tojo production as the IIb is not that far away. Same with the A6M3a's and Oscar's IIa's as they'll convert along the proper paths now.

Not sure you need more HI or supply expansion ... see below.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
Totally muddling along, but I'm really struggling understanding the implications of air production under PDU OFF, and the inability to downgrade air units to previous models.

Get into Tracker. For both model upgrades and most importantly air group upgrades, it has it all. You can export if you like to excel and sort it anyway you like.


HI: Looking at your screen again, you are currently saving 5K/day. That is VERY GOOD. Since you are only at 600K total and you are almost 400 days into the game, your average is only 1500. So, sometime earlier you really struggled with HI. BUT, now you are really humming along nicely.

Oil: on your industry screen, click all (to remove everything) and then click oil to see just oil. Find those oil centers that are either off or need repair and get them going.

AC Engines. Pick your late war AC and start getting those late war engines built now. Engine pools are like HI, money in the bank, except you gotta make sure it the right currency. [;)]

MSY: turn it off for a while. Check your builds. You prolly don't need anything other than tankers now and the CVE's. Halt everything else ...

NSY: take a hard look here as well. Subs get pretty useless (except for Glens) after '42. I halt most of them ...

So, I think your ac builds look ok. As CB notes, the Tojo B model is not that good, I routinely skip it and try to R&D the C model. Other than that, make a plan for kami builds so you know which ac factories you will let run until game end and which ones you can convert to other models.

Really, your economy is not that bad at all. End of '43 you should have ~2M HI in the bank, so you should be able to bank >3M before you lose the DEI and your fuel sources.

BANZAI

[Chickenboy]

For your IJAAF kamikaze production, obviously you'll want to go through all your outmoded IJAAF bomber types. Lillys, Sally Ic, Sally IIa, Helen Ia, and of course the plethora of crap 1EBs that the IJAAF starts are obvious choices to recruit.

Look at the Oscar IIa and IIb very closely for overproduction. They're fast, agile, high ceiling and carry 2x 250kg bombs. Plus they're cheap to make (1 engine, common type). I'd think about building somewhere on the order of 100 extra a month of one of these in 1943. Start with the IIa in abundance and convert to the IIb when it comes available perhaps.

[SqzMyLemon]

Great stuff guys, thanks for taking the time to look at things and make suggestions. Definitely food for thought and I should stop putting off the necessary tracker homework.

I'm delaying any Combined Fleet moves for 40 days. I've committed to a number of ship upgrades requiring anywhere from 21-30 days to complete. I've also decided to await the arrival of the Taiho which will finish construction in 35 days. She'll be a valuable addition to the fleet and offset the loss of the Hiryu.

I expect an Allied move against the Solomon's or New Guinea any day now. The slow pace of Allied operations at Tabiteuea tells me it's not the main Allied push. It is a gateway to the Marshall's, but the lack of any serious push tells me the Marshall's will probably be in good shape till at least mid-43.

When my refits are complete, I'm going to embark on a few limited operations. I'm not going to post what they are as I'm notorious for changing my mind [8|]. They still will be an attempt to delay future Allied moves in the Gilbert's and Marshall's by threatening the Allied buildup at Tabiteuea indirectly as discussed earlier, but the method and actual objectives will remain hush hush at the moment.

So, I'm giving myself an additional 40 days to fix my R&D, do my tracker homework, get my aircraft production sorted out, get more fuel to Truk for fleet operations, finish redeploying LCU's and complete the refitting of my CL's and DD's. My subs need to refuel and new patrol zones set up to be in a position to interdict Allied fleet movements and provide valuable intel, something they have failed at so far.

I'm thinking of a few bombardment missions against Tabiteuea to keep the Allies honest. I am 100% sure there are CD units and mines at Tabiteuea. Any suggestions on how best to bombard? I'm thinking of a kamikaze type minesweeping mission in conjuction with a four BB and DD escort bombardment force at long range, outside of CD gun range. I am planning on a day time bombardment in order to deal with the PT's and inflict maximum damage on the base. This is where having no bases built up in the area really hurts, I'd like to supply LRCAP, but most likely won't be able to from a lack of level 2 airbases close by.


At least the BB's should be able to shrug off most of the SBD's bomb hits if caught within range. The BB's are expendable to me, CA's are not and will be used strictly as SCTF's and not sacrificed needlessly against mines, CD guns or enemy air attack.

[crsutton]

A note on Burma from an Allied perspective. He has a very good and dangerous foothold for early 1943. Pity, but not much you can do about it. I takes a while for them to flesh out but by now his British and Indian tank brigades should be about full up with Grant and Lee tanks. These are powerful units that can smack around any Japanese unit in open terrain. If he moves the bulk of his tanks into Burma-and has moved enough of the USAAF there to help out, then you won't be able to hold any base or hex that is in open terrain. This also means he should be able to clear the road to Lashio as well. You should plan accordingly.

A flank sea attack is possible too but for the Allies there are just not enough PPs to buy out much of the Indian army for flanking attacks in 1943 unless he is not pushing too hard elsewhere. And, he will really need the bulk of his fleet in the Indian Ocean to keep you honest. They have done a pretty good job of allocating PPs for the Allies. It is just not possible to mount a major operation in both the Pacific and Indian Ocean in early 43. Late 43 is another story.