To run or not to run... Toidi (Sov) - Mike29 (Axis)

[Toidi]

OKH is trying linear defense... As my army is relatively small and understrength, this may work, especially in the north. As such, north will be the first assault, as only then the line will be breakable. Also, logistics there is very good, whereas in south the rail needs to be build first to allow for proper offensive.

Situation after my moves, before first blizzard turn, below:

[Toidi]

We in STAVKA held high hopes for the true winter that was coming, as reports suggested that Germans are badly prepared for the winter. Those reports, unfortunately, has been found to be highly exaggerated. The German soldiers were excellently prepared for the blizzard and in great supply, in lvl 2 entrenchments. As it seems, the Soviet army lacked the punch in the beginning to make any significant breach in the German army.

First turn of blizzard below:

[Toidi]

The German losses were very disappointing. Turn 26 was slightly better, but nothing close to the expectations. As such, the initial hopes for progress in blizzard has been found to be nothing more than wishful thinking. Stavka decided to start building entrenchments a bit deeper in the country - this is the line we hope to hold until June '42.

The blizzard offensive looks bad. 5 millions guys in the army, rested divisions sent to front, and barely a dent made in the defense...

As for OKH, it is a bit passive. It generally attacks to free the surrounded units, those attacks are with good deal of success.

[Toidi]

Situation after turn 26:

[Toidi]

In turn 26 only a single regiment of German division destroyed... The destroyed Soviet units are from the north of Finland...

[Peltonx]

Looks to me if you can keep pressing the line will break badly. 5 million men is about average for Blizzard.

Generally when I have a bad winter it for me falls apart in early january.

Once you pick off a few Divisions thing fall apart quickly.

Also the main issue for you is building your morale and droping his.

Pelton

[Toidi]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Looks to me if you can keep pressing the line will break badly. 5 million men is about average for Blizzard.

Generally when I have a bad winter it for me falls apart in early january.

Once you pick off a few Divisions thing fall apart quickly.

Also the main issue for you is building your morale and droping his.

Pelton

I'm not sure you tried entrenching in the newest patch. This time it really can work, IMHO - and even forts lvl 2 are sometimes enough (I can squash them, but it is a major effort; level 3 would be very tough). As you know we are playing a few turns in advance and as soon as I get a new turn from Mike, I will post next two weeks...

The issue is that for my prepared attack to be successful I need more or less 2.5:1 in initial (on map) CV in December (so taking into account display doubling of my CV it is 1.2:1), 2.5-3:1 or more in January and at least 3:1 in February (preferably 4:1, so 2:1 after factoring the 2x display cv increase)). After 2-3 failed attack, the very well refit division needs to be sent to refit again- as such I need as few of those as possible - and I was way too optimistic in the first two turns about the odds, and sappers reducing forts. As such, in the first two turns I got ratio of about 60-70% success in attack. Too little to have the offensive sustainable. Afterwards I use more forces, it got better, but still, it was difficult to keep divisions in strength (i.e. above 8000 guys - below that the division is not combat worthy anymore), having few digging armies and preparing reserves for the march snow.

Also, there are three more issues which made the blizzard more difficult for me:

(1) the support units which can be stronger than the division I attack itself (happened to me many times during this blizzard, attacking division of cv 40 in the battle screen, and getting pioneers of cv 50; total of SU equal to cv of division happened maybe 10-20% of time),
(2) armored reserve (kills pretty much any attack, Mike is very good at setting it and it took me much thought to go around that) and,
(3) the inability of my sappers to remove forts... It has not happened to me in the whole blizzard that my sappers removed fort level during a failed attack. The attack either works, or not... If it works, it is hard to say whether the fort was removed by sappers or not - when it doesn't - well the fort *always* stayed the same level.

The reduction in German cv due to failed checks happened relatively little to me. I would say, the chance my cv will be divided by 4, contrary to the usual 2 is perhaps bigger than the chance the German CV will be crippled. It can be divided by 2 due to bad supply, ammo issues etc, especially if I bomb the unit before and get it fatigued and into 'red' supply status [in the unit corner, soft factor] (or is in red supply) but I found dividing cv due to blizzard as relatively rare. I asked Mike about that and he said that he upgraded his leaders to the best possible and that he spent majority of AP on those. Maybe that is the reason. Again, I did the calculations and it seems to me that for average check, the chance of failure for German is maybe 15% - as Mike upgraded leaders that probably fell to maybe 10%. As in my understanding 2 checks are made, this means that the reduction due to blizzard happen maybe in 1-0.9x0.9 - around 20% cases - way too rare to rely on it.

Anyway, I will keep on reporting so you can see the progress... I am really keen to see how things will unwind in '42, but I expect it to be a very, very tough year.

[Toidi]

Following Turn 36 (snow in the south and centre) leading to Axis attacking and encircling my troops

[Toidi]

and turn 37 (snow in the south, blizzard everywhere else)

[Toidi]

I have been released from the position. JAMiAM will kindly continue defending the SU and hopefully will put the red banner on Reichstag in '44.

My advice for the future players is that limited defense in '41 is possible and advisable.
During blizzard press and attack, but never overextend yourself; Keep your divisions healthy and in good TOE. Also, don't create ski batallions, they are not worth anything
In '42, my opinion is that currently it is difficult and not advisable to defend in the south in '42, as you don't have the points to replace lost and encircled divisions. In the more favourable terrain, when the chance of encirclement is small, defending is advisable. Do multiply the strength of Axis troops you see by two; even then you will face some nasty surprises...

For my successor, thank you for taking over myself. I would like to wish best of luck. Also, I leave three envelopes... with instructions what to do when you run into inevitable troubles.

**********************************************************************************************

1st envelope instructions: say that all what is happening is my fault and you just did not have enough time to steer out of troubles
2nd envelope instructions: say that the generals were responsible and that they cannot lead, though your plan was impeccable
3rd envelope instructions: prepare three envelopes for your successor and leave...

[Toidi]

As I had T35 prepared anyway, and it may be instructional to see how T36 happened, I attach the situation after my moves...

Once again, best of luck for JAMiAM ... me, I am off duty for an extended period of time.