MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

I decided to try to get through the end of the turn, and instead of attacking Chengtu directly, I made two attacks to the SE of the city, each with better odds . . . and if victorious, the Partisan number in China should go down significantly.

The attack shown here is going to be the second I make. It featured another good Japanese roll for HQ-I Terauchi, allowing him to provide HQ Support. One of the good things this early in the game for Japan, I've found, is that if I don't use my fleet too much, I have enough Oil to expend all of my HQs each turn, if necessary (or even useful).

I don't always make the attacks in the order I report them. I report them in the order they are shown on the Combat Selection Grid in the upper-left corner, but sometimes it's better to make certain attacks first, leaving other units out of supply. I know, that's obvious, and in this case it actually is in order. The reason I bothered to point it out is that I'm going to make the 2nd attack as a Blitz (Chinese choice). This late in the turn, there is no point in trying to disorganize Japanese units, particularly ones that don't need Oil, so I'll try to save whatever units I can. As the Japanese, I'll expect this, and by making this the second attack, I should be able to force whatever units survive across the river into a useless position to start next turn (or impulse, if the Axis gets "lucky" and doesn't end the turn now).

Anyway, here are the attacks:



And the reults:

Attack on China [83, 132]: Assault, Fractional Odds .242 (Yes), Roll = 2 = -/1S (attackers disorganized)
Attack on China [82, 132]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .518 (Yes), Roll = 8 = */2B

As you can see, things didn't go quite as planned for either side. The "sure thing" attack wasn't one, and the "good chance to survive" attack didn't have the intended results for the Chinese either. All in all, this worked out in favor of the Japanese.

[Red Prince]

Does anybody know what the record is for the longest ever M/J turn in a game of WiF?

This dialog box allows the player to "choose" the die roll he/she wants. It is only available in Solitaire mode (or for beta-tester debugging), and I'm posting it show that I am not cheating in order to gain an advantage for the Axis, as some may suspect based on the favorable rolls the Axis has had in general. Other beta-testers can confirm that this roll was not tampered with; if it had been, it would show as a red number instead of a selectable number (highlighted in blue).



So, get ready for Allied Impulse #14 . . . it's going to be an exciting one indeed . . . everyone is going to Pass, and that means a 100% chance of the unseemly hot Spring ending abruptly and immediately. So, while it may take me some time, I'll be giving you the usual End-of-Turn reports as the next several posts.

Since it's also been a while since I've shown you what the maps look like, I'll try to include some of those with my next set of posts. It looks like it's going to be a long year, indeed.

This round of posts may take a lot of time to put together, because I am going to try my best to reform the CW fleets into something that forum members will consider to be more useful than they've been so far. That is going to take a lot of thought.

[Red Prince]

For starters, here's a look at the weather patterns in M/J '40 . . .

[Red Prince]

Next up is the form showing the units destroyed in M/J '40 (Turn #5):

[Rijssiej]

Could you give us an overview of the current situation around Gibraltar?

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Rijssiej

Could you give us an overview of the current situation around Gibraltar?

Absolutely. After I'm finished with my End-of-Turn reports, I intend to show all of the active areas of operations, including the Gibraltar "experience".

[Red Prince]

I'm going to take a small risk here. You can see in the US Entry Options chart that starting up the Embargo on Japan has a 50% chance of moving a chit to the Tension Pool, but since the fleet is at Pearl, I can reduce that to a 20% chance. After that, I'm going to go with Gift of Destroyers to the CW. It may be only 10 BP, but that could come in very handy right about now, particularly if used in the Construction Pool instead of laying down new ships or repairing old ones (which I want the USA to do when it has the chance).

I've combined the images so you can see the Options available, plus the "before" and "after" US Entry Pools below:
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Cancel that. As it turns out, the USA got very lucky:

USA chooses Embargo on Strategic Materials (Ja), adjusted by -3; USE-3 (no chit moved)
USA chooses Gift of Destroyers to Commonwealth (All); USE-10 (no chit moved)

I was very tempted to select Resources to USSR, but didn't want to risk a good thing I had going. So, the "before" and "after" ends up being the same thing, since no chits were moved to the Tension Pools:

[Centuur]

I would love to see the Italian Sub's based on the Azores, in the unlikely case that it is lost to the Germans. The only thing I have to do is clear the North Atlantic and Cape St. Vincent of all enemy vessels... That then puts the whole Italian Sub fleet out of supply and incapable of doing any damage on my precious convoys. Nice, very nice indeed. And such a tempting target for a port attack too, with no Axis fighters around.

About the Portuguese set up. I wouldn't put the GAR in Macau, since a possible gain there is only temporate. The big guns of the Japanese fleet are quite capable of killing the GAR, together with one or two units to make a land attack. The only position where it would do a little good is the Azores. The CW needs to use the Island as an airbase, so defending the place with the GAR is the best way to help the Allied war effort.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I would love to see the Italian Sub's based on the Azores, in the unlikely case that it is lost to the Germans. The only thing I have to do is clear the North Atlantic and Cape St. Vincent of all enemy vessels... That then puts the whole Italian Sub fleet out of supply and incapable of doing any damage on my precious convoys. Nice, very nice indeed. And such a tempting target for a port attack too, with no Axis fighters around.

About the Portuguese set up. I wouldn't put the GAR in Macau, since a possible gain there is only temporate. The big guns of the Japanese fleet are quite capable of killing the GAR, together with one or two units to make a land attack. The only position where it would do a little good is the Azores. The CW needs to use the Island as an airbase, so defending the place with the GAR is the best way to help the Allied war effort.

Normally, I'd agree with you. In this case, I had forgotten to leave an extra Japanese unit in Canton, so the GARR in Macao could have done some real damage to the Japanese war effort, particularly since I have a medium sized fleet based there. If that fleet has to rebase, it means a lot of Oil has to be used to reorganize it.

This was one of those situations where I was, as somebody said, failing to see and exploit an advantage for the Allies. There have been very few of these for the Allies to this point, and this would have been a brilliant coup. Unfortunately, I was pre-occupied (as the player) with what was going on in Spain and Portugal.

I don't suggest that the GARR should normally be placed in Macao. Just this particular instance would have been a nice morale boost for the citizens of the Commonwealth. Big oops.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I would love to see the Italian Sub's based on the Azores, in the unlikely case that it is lost to the Germans. The only thing I have to do is clear the North Atlantic and Cape St. Vincent of all enemy vessels... That then puts the whole Italian Sub fleet out of supply and incapable of doing any damage on my precious convoys. Nice, very nice indeed. And such a tempting target for a port attack too, with no Axis fighters around.

About the Portuguese set up. I wouldn't put the GAR in Macau, since a possible gain there is only temporate. The big guns of the Japanese fleet are quite capable of killing the GAR, together with one or two units to make a land attack. The only position where it would do a little good is the Azores. The CW needs to use the Island as an airbase, so defending the place with the GAR is the best way to help the Allied war effort.

Normally, I'd agree with you. In this case, I had forgotten to leave an extra Japanese unit in Canton, so the GARR in Macao could have done some real damage to the Japanese war effort, particularly since I have a medium sized fleet based there. If that fleet has to rebase, it means a lot of Oil has to be used to reorganize it.

This was one of those situations where I was, as somebody said, failing to see and exploit an advantage for the Allies. There have been very few of these for the Allies to this point, and this would have been a brilliant coup. Unfortunately, I was pre-occupied (as the player) with what was going on in Spain and Portugal.

I don't suggest that the GARR should normally be placed in Macao. Just this particular instance would have been a nice morale boost for the citizens of the Commonwealth. Big oops.

Ahh. But there is a railway into Canton, isn't it? So what I will do as the Japanese is to select one unit which is in a city with a railway connection and use the railmove I've got in the combined impulse. So no movement of the GAR into Canton. Or are you going to tell me that there isn't any landunit in a position to do so in that part of the world?

Edit: oh, I'm forgetting again that you aren't playing with the no ZOC on surprise impulse. We used to do so, in the past... Forget what I've said about that railmove...

[Red Prince]

Okay, happy to forget it. [:D]

As you know, France was conquered by Germany this last turn. That means all her ships on the spiral and in the Construction and Repair Pools have to be rolled for to see who gets them. 1 CL and 1 CA were destroyed, and the rest were distributed as might be expected; the Allies retained 2 ships, and the Axis managed to grab the bulk of the fleet.

Those ships then had to be assigned to Major Powers for each side. Well, here were the results. You can see which power is the new owner by the stripe at the top of the naval unit. If there isn't a stripe (CA Foch), that means the original owner decided to keep it for their own fleet. In this case, France is counting on the USA to spend the BP to repair it for them.

[Red Prince]

Before I post my end of turn report, I want to give you the updated US Entry Pools Form, based on the 2 chits that were gained when Germany conquered France, along with the Chit Summary for the M/J '40 turn:

Impulse: 1
Italy aligns Yugoslavia; USE-7 (no chit)
Japan takes Yenan; USE-4 (no chit)
Attack on Kweiyang; Assault, Fractional Odds .293 (Yes), Roll = 10 = */2S; USE-10 (no chit)
Attack on Chihkiang; Assault, Fractional Odds .341 (Yes), Roll = 8 = */2S; USE-7 (no chit)

Impulse: 2
USSR moves CAV Division to Kaunas to Occupy Baltic States; USE-2 (-1 chit, 2 of 4 [1])

Impulse: 3
Germany DOW Spain (CW); USE-8 (+1 chit, 186 [1])
Italy DOW Spain; USE-10 (+1 chit, 119 [1])
Germany aligns Finland; USE-6 (no chit)

Impulse: 7
Attack on Chungking; Assault, Fractional Odds .174 (No), Roll = 5 = 1/2 (ENG destroyed, attackers disorganized) USE-10 (no chit)

Impulse: 11
Germany DOW Portugal (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
Japan DOW Portugal; USE-5 (no chit)

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Ge/It Entry Pool (200 [1])
USA chooses Embargo on Strategic Materials (Ja), adjusted by -3; USE-3 (no chit moved)
USA chooses Gift of Destroyers to Commonwealth (All); USE-10 (no chit moved)

Conquest
France conquered by Germany; USE-3 (+2 chits, 302 [3], 164 [1])

[composer99]

Arguably the Germans should have given the Fr BB and CA to one of the other Italy or Japan who would be more likely to use them.

Where's the new French home country? Morocco would be fantastic (2 cities means more factories for lending) but very risky - most likely too risky under the circumstances. Senegal is also a strong choice given the major port (more lending) and resource ("in-house" production once France builds a factory there - or a resource France can lend to CW). If you want proximity to US lend-lease French Guiana is a good choice.

Probably Senegal is the best choice if you haven't already picked somewhere.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Arguably the Germans should have given the Fr BB and CA to one of the other Italy or Japan who would be more likely to use them.

Where's the new French home country? Morocco would be fantastic (2 cities means more factories for lending) but very risky - most likely too risky under the circumstances. Senegal is also a strong choice given the major port (more lending) and resource ("in-house" production once France builds a factory there - or a resource France can lend to CW). If you want proximity to US lend-lease French Guiana is a good choice.

Probably Senegal is the best choice if you haven't already picked somewhere.

Already picked Senegal. It's in the report I'm almost ready to post.

The reason I kept the BB for Germany was that it was going to arrive as a reinforcement . . . along with another German BB with 7 attack factors. That adds 14 Factors to a fleet that will soon be able to compete in the North Sea (when the brand new CV arrives).

[composer99]

Also, given Japan is lagging in the entry and tension departments for War Appropriations I suggest all future entry chits the US gets to pick go to the Japan entry pool for at least the rest of 1940.

To meet the tension requirements for War Appropriations it looks like 1 more non-zero chit in the Ja tension pool will do. If it's the 1- or 2-value chit (which would be ideal so as not to mess with Japanese entry) 1-2 more chits in Ge/It tension will be needed (this is okay given the larger pool of lower-value chits in Ge/It entry).

To that end I suggest the US pass option 23 next turn (Freeze Japanese assets). If the entry chit draw was good enough (2 or better) aim to reduce the chance of getting tension so you have a shot at the oil embargo the following turn, which will push the Japanese towards war with the Western Allies...

[Red Prince]

And here it is, my End of Turn Report for M/J '40:

Partisans
1 Partisan in Hungary (Fr) placed in mountains west of Ruthenia

Entry Markers
Germany placed 2 markers on Offense (178 [1], 136 [1])
USSR placed 1 marker on Defense (27 [1])

US Entry
USA drew 1 marker to the Ge/It Entry Pool (200 [1])
USA chooses Embargo on Strategic Materials (Ja), adjusted by -3; USE-3 (no chit moved)
USA chooses Gift of Destroyers to Commonwealth (All); USE-10 (no chit moved)

Ge/It Entry: 20
Ge/It Tension: 19
Chance of DOW: None
Japan Entry: 23
Japan Tension: 13
Chance of DOW: None
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After the fall of France, this changed to:

Ge/It Entry: 26
Ge/It Tension: 19
Chance of DOW: 0%
Japan Entry: 25
Japan Tension: 13
Chance of DOW: 0%
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Pre-Build Scrapping
China scrapped 1 x GARR (Nationalist)
CW scrapped 2 x CVP-1 (Class-1)
Germany scrapped 1 x INF

Builds:
China (3): 1 x INF
CW (19): 3 x TERR, 1 x AMPH, 1 x FTR-3, 2 x CVP-1, 1 x CL(2nd), 1 x SUB, 2 x Pilot
France (0): Nothing
USA (20): 1 x MTN Division, 1 x MOT Division, 1 x AMPH(1st), 1 x FTR-2, 1 x CVP-1, 1 x NAV-3, 1 x SUB(2nd), 3 x Pilot
USSR (17): 3 x INF, 1 x ART, 2 x Convoy, 1 x Pilot
Germany (19): 1 x INF, 1 x HQ-A, 2 x FTR-2, 2 x SUB(2nd), 1 x Pilot
Italy (11): 1 x TERR, 1 x SUB(1st), 1 x SynthOil
Japan (17): 1 x INF, 2 x CVP-0, 1 x SynthOil, 1 x AMPH(2nd), 1 x Pilot

J/A '40 Gearing Limits (above 1):
China: 2 x Infantry
CW: 4 x Infantry, 3 x Ship, 2 x Submarine, 4 x Air, 3 x Pilot
France: None
USA: 3 x Infantry, 2 x Ship, 2 x Submarine, 4 x Air, 4 x Pilot
USSR: 4 x Infantry, 2 x Artillery, 2 x Ship, 2 x Pilot
Germany: 2 x Infantry, 2 x Armor, 3 x Submarine, 3 x Air, 2 x Pilot
Italy: 2 x Infantry, 2 x Submarine, 2 x Factory
Japan: 2 x Infantry, 2 x Ship, 3 x Air, 2 x Pilot, 2 x Factory

Conquest:
East Timor cc by Japan
Spain conquered by Germany
Portugal conquered by Germany
Spanish Morocco cc by Italy
Azores cc by Germany
France conquered by Germany

Spain set up a Government in Exile in Spanish Sahara
Portugal set up a Government in Exile in Mozambique
France set up a Government in Exile in Senegal

China Declines to Surrender to Japan

Factory Destruction:
Germany destroys Blue Factories in Madrid, Bilbao, and Marseilles
Italy destroys Blue Factory in Nantes
Japan destroys Blue Factory in Chungking

Reinforcements:
Germany assigns a Pilot to FTR-3, holding 1 in reserve
Germany places its Finnish MIL and Ski Division in Helsinki, 2 INF in Konigsberg, 2 BB and FTR-3 in Kiel
Germany removes Finnish LND and Rumanian LND from the map
Italy assigns its Pilot to NAV-3
Italy places its Yugoslavian MIL in Zagreb and Belgrade, INF in Zagreb, its TERR in Djibouti, and the NAV in Genoa
Japan assigns its 2 Pilots to CVP Class-2
Japan places both its CVP, its MAR Division, and its GARR in Tokyo
Japan removes a CVP Class-3 from the map
China places its INF in Kunming
CW assigns its 2 Pilots to NAV-3 and RSA FTR-2
CW places its FTR in Cape Town, its TERR in Pretoria, Ndola, and Halifax, its NAV in Liverpool, HQ-I Alexander and INF in Bristol, GARR in London
USA assigns its 2 Pilots to CVP Class-4 and CVP Class-2
USA places its CVP on CVs in Norfolk
USSR assigns its Pilot to FTR-2
USSR places Communist Chinese MTN in Tianshui
USSR places its FTR, 2 INF and INF Division in Cernauti, HQ-I Yeremenko and CAV in Minsk, MTN in Chisinau

Trade Agreements:
No change to Trade Agreements

Victory Totals
Axis: 28
Allies: 39

Initiative:
Allies win Initiative 8-4, Axis demands a Re-Roll
Axis wins Initiative 8-2 (-1 Initiative for Re-Roll)

Turn 6 J/A '40

Axis wins Initiative 8-2
Axis chooses to move first in J/A '40
Initiative Track at 0

Impulse: 1
Weather: 6
(That's Fine weather everywhere, with Storms in the N. Monsoon zone)
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A terrible Spring for the Allies, don't you think?

The reason the Axis forced the Initiative re-roll is primarily because the CW has no ships in the Med at the moment, and getting the first impulse means that HQ-I Graziani, a MIL, and an INF Division should be able to reinforce Egypt -- which might have been impossible if the CW got to move first. Also, with the high demand from the populace, the CW now has the majority of its fleet in Gibraltar, prepared to redeploy correctly (I hope). Unfortunately for them, it meant leaving minimal "holding" fleets in some locations. Even without significant air support, Germany may be able to take advantage of this to knock out 1 or 2 of the defenders in Gibraltar in the first impulse. If that can be done, the CW might or might not be able to reinforce it before the second attack comes -- with much more air power behind it.

Also, for Italy, taking a Naval Action to start things off allows more Shore Bombardment and defenders to get into the W. Med for that attack. It's going to be a low odds attack, but that's life, isn't it? Gibraltar is a tough nut to crack, and I expect it to take all summer and probably an O-chit, too. If Gibraltar does look like it's going to fall, then the CW has to decide what to do with that fleet . . . enter the Med and try to get out the back door before Egypt collapses? Or stay out of the Med entirely? They might be able to throttle the Italian fleet in the W. Med, but can they afford to get trapped there?

I know I promised a look at Gibraltar and other parts of the world that are active, but I've spent about 6 hours on this already, today. Maybe this evening I'll get some images up. If not, I'll do it in the morning.
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So, at the beginning of July, 1940, here is what the world looks like:

[composer99]

Azores is less valuable to take as the Axis in MWiF because of all the extra hexes. In WiF:FE there's 1 hex which means, say, a white-print corps requires some effort to dislodge, even if disorganized and out-of-supply in order for the hex to be useful as an airbase. Even a disorganized and out-of-supply division (1 factor) requires a meaningful effort (say, 3 divisions plus shore bombardment & air support) to knock out.

With multiple hexes, though, the Allies can retake 1 or 2 hexes and then base their NAV there (with, say, US GARR units as defence) to support the convoy lines.

The minor port is still useful for the Allies so they should build up the resources to get it back at their earliest convenience (which doubtless means some time in 1941).

[Red Prince]

Okay, first view of the current Gibraltar situation:

[Red Prince]

This is an edited together set of Flyouts showing all of the units currently in the Gibraltar hex:


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There are 11 factors of German units in Tangier, and due to the AT unit in Gibraltar, I intend to use the 9-4 INF and the 7-2 MIL as part of the first attack, perhaps with te help of the PARA stacked with the ATR.

As you can see, I don't have much air support that can reach Gebraltar, but there are a few factors in Tangier, and a few extended range LND I can get into the fight. Additionally, I should be able to get as much as 18 factors of Shore Bombardment from the Italians. If the Italian LND can Ground Strike a few of the units there, I should be able to get a 2:1 attack on the first impulse, maybe better by a fraction or two.

After that, the CW fleet will be able to add its own shore bombardment to counter the heavier bombers Germany will be bringing in. So, the first attack needs to eliminate at least one, and hopefully two of the land units in Gibraltar.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

This is an edited together set of Flyouts showing all of the units currently in the Gibraltar hex:

Naval Review Details might have made this easier to display.