Under the Red Banner: Q-Ball (R) v Baelfiin (Axis)

[Q-Ball]

T-22: 11/13/41

The weather this turn was Snow everywhere, which was expected.

I was seriously worried about this turn, because not only would Baelfiin have some Snow, but all the rivers in Russia are frozen solid already. While Non-Random snow turns, the Russians benefit from ice-choked rivers, not the case this time, as Ice Levels are 9 in North Soviet Zone already. Everything is a block of Ice.

Given this, the turn could have been worse; I will lose yet another clump to a pocket, but I think that's going to be it for the Snow.

Attacks in the North

This turn featured a major Panzer attack toward, and around, V-V. Panzers blasted through my lines on either side, and plowed through the Snow to unit above V-V.

I have a couple maps below. At first glance, it looks very very bad, with high-risk of connecting with the Finns. But there are only 2 more turns before Blizzard rules, and with Random weather, there is a 40% chance of Blizzard conditions in advance, which would really slow him up.

Next turn, he will liquidate the 10 divisions in the V-V pocket, and might be able to form 1 more. If he doesn't wrap-up next turn, he will leave several Panzer divisions outside during Blizzard, which is a good thing for me.

Elsewhere:

We launched several successful attacks elsewhere, as the Germans seem to have disappeared from the front in most places. Not completely, but from Moscow all the way to the Sea of Azov, there is only a thin screen of Germans. I think Baelfiin intends to RUN like crazy during Blizzard everywhere but the North. I am already beginning to move forward, and get an early start on the Blizzard offensive.

In response, I am starting to pile everyone up around Moscow, because that's the only place I think he will make a fight of it. Elsewhere, I will use CAV to flip hexes and pursue best I can while the infantry catches up, but I will probably do more marching than fighting in the Ukraine.

[Q-Ball]

T-23: 11/21/41

Only two turns before Blizzard, and my weather luck turned: MUD in North and Central Soviet zones (and SNOW in South Soviet!). You gotta love Random weather.

Even though it's Muddy, rivers are all still frozen-solid from that Blizzard weather we had in October, so go figure.

At any rate, the MUD happened at a good turn for me, and pretty much will end any major offensive action on the part of Baelfiin.

Moscow/V-V:

I didn't post a map, as there is little change since the last post, except that Baelfiin did liquidate most of the V-V pocket, with the exception of V-V itself. But with Mud everywhere, little chance to really advance.

In fact, I moved up in all the gaps. Chances are next turn will be SNOW, so he will have fuel, but it's pretty risky to try any major pocketing the last turn before Blizzard.

I hope he attempts to hold the bulge at V-V. For this reason, I cling to the Valdai Hills; if Blizzard wasn't coming, I would be out of there rather than risk a big pocket.

Interesting to see what he does with the last Snow turn before Blizzard, but I think he will pull back the Panzers and get them to some shelter ahead of the Blizzard.

I hope he keeps them outside, but I doubt he will. Moscow itself can house 9 units, almost a whole Panzer Army, so I expect some to go there.

Next turn, I will post a full casualty report wrapping up the '41 campaign, and also post my evil Blizzard plans in detail.....

[Q-Ball]

T24-11/28/41

Last call before Blizzard! We are gathering our Comrades for the big Blizzard assault.

In several places, we have ZOC locks already on German units, and one unit is completely surrounded.

Summer Assessment:

Overall, I think the summer campaign wasn't all bad for me.

Where Baelfiin did very well, and where I got beat, was on tactical handling of the Panzers. He went for a "Pocket First" strategy, and was consistently able to close large pockets of my guys. I planned defenses in depth, but he concentrated enough force to break through successive lines of defense. I calculated MPs and Fuel, but he consistently exceeded that. His pockets were also very air-tight, and showed an excellent understanding of ZOC on the ground.

Where I think Baelfiin erred is more grand strategic. Not going for Leningrad was a big mistake, IMO. His focus on Moscow also pulled resources from the South, where his advance was very tardy. Finally, that last push toward V-V was off target, as he really should have pushed me away from Moscow to the EAST, not the north.

State of Red Army:

Our current OOB is 5.2 mil; I have tried to economize on Armaments, so we have 60K Manpower in the pool right now. Everyone else has a Rifle. We disbanded some excess Air HQs as well as the Corps, so alot of typists are at the front as well. The OOB number is OK, not amazing.

We lost 187 Rifle Divisions during the summer, a huge number. Baelfiin surrounded and destroyed tons of units. Most of these were before November, so they re-spawn, but we lost tons of guys.

On the bright side, we lost only 18 Armaments, and we are currently netting 125,000 Manpower per turn, so we have the flow there to ramp-up in 1942.

I didn't lose any Mountain Divisions other than the ones that are doomed in Lvov turn 1, and tried to limit Cav losses, though he got about 6 more divisions than I would have liked.

Blizzard Strategy:

The line of Germans south of Ryazan is very thin; every other hex, no forts. This leads me to beleive that Baelfiin plans to RUN come Blizzard!

I do see more around Moscow, though, and it makes sense to defend it. It's a pain to take back due to terrain, and a worthwhile prize. He needs to hold it to have a successful 1941. I think he will fight hard for Moscow.

Therefore, I am focusing on Moscow. IN other sectors, I will probably just march westward for 10 turns, making the occasional attack, gobbling up empty space. The real fighting will be Moscow, so I am gathering forces there.

A couple interesting situations on the FLANKS:

Around Leningrad, there is only a thin line along the Luga, and no rail lines nearby. I can probably walk to Pskov an Talinin if I choose, I wonder if Baelfiin is daring me, since I would end-up hugely exposed. I will probably grab the territory, and quickly fall back during Feb/March.

I still hold ODESSA. I don't think I have seen an AAR where someone holds ODESSA way in the German rear like that! It is besieged by single Romanian units in lvl-3 trenches, who will become jelly in December. I just shipped in two more units, and we will attack out of Odessa, and see how far we can push it. I plan to pull-back to Odessa come February, and stick to the town itself again until I am kicked out (or Sevastopol is threatened, whichever comes first). Oh, and I also plan to pull the Industry out of Odessa; why not?

[Flaviusx]

I don't really get what Baelfin was hoping to accomplish with that push around Vishny Volochek. He has indeed set himself up far some hard knocks as a result. Leaving the vagaries of weather aside, he never should have done it, even if the weather gods had been in his favor.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I don't really get what Baelfin was hoping to accomplish with that push around Vishny Volochek. He has indeed set himself up far some hard knocks as a result. Leaving the vagaries of weather aside, he never should have done it, even if the weather gods had been in his favor.

I think two reasons: First, pocket a bunch of guys, which he did; 12 divisions were elminiated, which is some payback for it. His Panzers were focused around Moscow, and he had greater opportunity to pocket in this direction than to the East, where I had rows of dug-in troops in good terrain.

Second, I think he wanted to keep a springboard for a 1942 campaign to cut-off Leningrad from there. I don't think closing it now is realistic, but thinking ahead, reaching the Svir from there would pocket 2 whole fronts and be the mother lode.

A better idea, IMO, woudl have been to push directly EAST of Moscow. It would have been slow-going and bloody, but he needed to push me away from the city more hexes to create space. He also would have ended-up with some swamp hexes, which are good Blizzard defensive terrain.

As it stands, I am 6 hexes from Moscow, and therefore within striking distance. Not sure I can hold it in Snow, but let's take it first and figure that part out later.....

[Wuffer]

An astonishing start for you, 'December Madness' really.

I guess he will be badly surprised, well done. IMHO GER is in a quite difficult position here just at the start, he couldn't pull back without sacrifing a LOT...

With Odessa(!) and Sewastopol any chances of naval landings?


edit: some people would like to look some 100 km's further in the south.[:)]

[Q-Ball]

12/4/41: Blizzard!

First turn of Blizzard, and Baelfiin already has problems. He screwed up not moving a few units in the south, but to his credit, he declined when I offered a mulligan. I have certainly been there before (see my AAR with B-G, and two units I lost in the Crimea)

Attack Counter:

25 wins, 10 losses the first turn. Not that many total attacks, for two reasons: 1, I made none around Moscow where he retreated a hex first, and 2, in a few areas I passed on attacks to surround German units instead of attacking them.

Northern Fronts:

Not much combat north of Moscow, as Baelfiin is in full retreat out of the V-V bulge, and elsewhere.

We crossed the Luga, and are pressing south, with few Germans in the way. We'll probably halt just from flank exposure

Moscow:

Little fighting so far, as we just closed with his lines (he pulled back a hex). Next turn, big battles should break out.

There is little south of the Oka, though, so I plan to move west then circile back toward Moscow.

Ukraine:

Big problems for Baelfiin down here. A German Infantry Division surrendered this turn, and 4 regts are going to be toast. More are in ZOC lock. Not sure what he's going to do, but it's a mess around Kharkov.

Odessa:

I cleared two hexes of trenches; I should be able to clear the other two next turn, and bring in more troops, plus an army HQ. I don't plan to stay long-term, but for a couple months I want to really gobble up territory and create a big problem for him.

[Flaviusx]

You did the right thing in seeking the flanks and locking down the Axis, Q-ball. This is the way to do it. The attacks will come in due course.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

You did the right thing in seeking the flanks and locking down the Axis, Q-ball. This is the way to do it. The attacks will come in due course.

I don't anticipate alot of attacks south of Moscow; I will destroy a few units, and then I think he's just going to run faster than I can catch-up. I agree, though, the real prize is destroying German units. Even though they respawn, all the men and material in them is gone forever, and the respawns are totally green.

I will have plenty of attack opportunities in front of Moscow. The number of combats will be low, but lots of units involved

I'm not really set-up for massive guard conversions, but I'm sure I'll get some, as some untis entered Blizzard with 4 or 5 wins already.

One thing wierd, though: I don't see ANY mountain units, other than the Hungarian one. They have to be somewhere; Baelfiin must be keeping a reserve.

He held out the Romanian Mountain units, which is a good idea; I think the best use of those is to park them halfway through summer, to build up Morale/Experience for Blizzard.

[Flaviusx]

You'll get your guards, don't worry. Plenty of time to earn your wins. Particularly if you dislocate him badly enough and turn a mere retreat into a sauve qui peut.

[Q-Ball]

12/11/41: Blizzard

Our glorious comrades surge forward to remove the fascists from the sacred soil of our Motherland. Most of that soil so far is pretty much open terrain. So far I am pleased with the winter offensive, though I wish I could come to grips with more Germans.

Attack Counter:

This turn: 33-13
Total So Far: 58-23

I was bloodied a couple turns this time by Reserves from Moscow; Baelfiin is using reserves. I am also pretty aggressive, and probably need to be more sure on my attacks. I've been pushing my guys alot

In terms of losses, we each lost about 150K this turn

Overall:

The Germans are running quite a bit. I made not a single attack between Ryazan and Kharkov, over half the map, though we did maneuver into a favorable situation near Voronezh (see shots below). But for the most part, Baelfiin is running faster than my guys can march to keep up.

In the north, I am within 5 hexes of Pskov, where I shall NOT remain into Snow. Down south, we are within 3 hexes of D-Town and Z-town. But Moscow holds.

My first Guards Division flipped over, and I plan to attack as much as possible to bleed the Germans. But the priority are POWs.

[Klydon]

Rumanians and Italians out in the open during blizzard.. yummy!

As good as Baelfiin was with the advance in destroying Russian units, etc, I think he has underestimated the type of damage Q-Ball will be able to do during the blizzard. Q-Ball is one of the best Russians I have seen in these AARs when it comes to the blizzard and I think he is going to lay a hurting on Baelfiin.

[karonagames]

I think he is going to lay a hurting on Baelfiin.

Yep, stacked divisions spaced one hex apart may work against the AI, but are a recipe for disaster against a human who knows what he is doing. I fear Pelton's record of 55 division losses during a blizzard will get beaten.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

I think he is going to lay a hurting on Baelfiin.

Yep, stacked divisions spaced one hex apart may work against the AI, but are a recipe for disaster against a human who knows what he is doing.

The one-hex apart thing, I think that works IF you couple that with a 1-hex retreat each turn. Otherwise, the Russians will just infiltrate the stacks, and you are screwed if that happens. You're right about that, it's a disaster.

It takes 6 MPs for a Soviet Rifle Division to enter a German-controlled hex (assuming 41+ morale). This is the key number in Blizzard; this means that a 1-hex withdrawl will limit attacks to those units with 12+ MPs at least. By double and triple stacking, the German can really limit attack opportunities if coupled with withdrawls, because not every Rifle unit will have 12+ MPs.

My game vs. Bletchley Geek, I think I have done pretty average so far, though where I did well IMO is in Blizzard as the Germans. I didn't "win", you can't, but I successfully limited the damage, and kept reserves for quick counterattack. My basic strategy in that one was 1-hex withdrawls to prepared fort lines, and lots of stacks. It works, but again, ONLY if you pull those stacks back each turn.

I know you like that Linebacker Bob, but I think any Stand and Hold strategy is dooomed. The problem is that if the first line is pushed, the second line of Regiments are easy pickings for a Cav Corps; this wipes out 2 rows of forts in one turn, and provides some easy wins. It also provides opportunity for ZOC locks, which are the best way for the Soviets to kill units; lock the ZOCs, and push the flanks until the unit is doomed.

I think the best strategy for the Germans is "Stack and Pullback".

Post #170 sums up what I think is best for the Germans in my other AAR:


tm.asp?m=2903427&mpage=6&key=

[karonagames]

I know you like that Linebacker Bob, but I think any Stand and Hold strategy is dooomed.

A pre-requisite for linebacker to work is maximising damage and disruption of the Red Army before the blizzard starts (getting Leningrad helps too)- I have proved that a 4.0m Red Army can be held. If I was facing a 5.0m+ Red Army I would consider retreating every turn of December, every other turn in January and holding fast in February.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

I know you like that Linebacker Bob, but I think any Stand and Hold strategy is dooomed.

A pre-requisite for linebacker to work is maximising damage and disruption of the Red Army before the blizzard starts (getting Leningrad helps too)- I have proved that a 4.0m Red Army can be held. If I was facing a 5.0m+ Red Army I would consider retreating every turn of December, every other turn in January and holding fast in February.

I can see that, but you have to kill an awful lot of Reds to get them down to 4 mil. I started Blizzard over 5 mil, and I lost 3.5 mil during the summer campaign. How much would you have to kill: 4.5 mil?

To get to that number, you need some "help" from the Red side. I've lost 187 Rifle Divisions so far; how many do you need to destroy to get the Red Army down to 4 mil?

(The other possibility is that your opponent did a very poor job of managing armaments. With a few basic steps, you should be able to keep the Red Army equipped through 1941).

T27: 12/18/41

We are starting to run into some speedbumps on our march to Berlin.

Attack Counter:

This turn: 36-8
Total: 94-31

I am averaging around 50-ish attacks per turn. Nowhere near the 100 or so I had vs. Tarhunnas, but that was in 1.04 and awhile ago in versions. Not the same thing.

Production:

Our Manpower Pool is now empty of active troops; we have enough armaments for everyone. We ran a Manpower surplus for a couple turns, but we just caught-up. All the armament factories I moved are coming back on-line. When January hits, we should start running an Armament surplus. We have 352 Armament plants.

Tank Production is nearing full-strength.

For Blizzard, all Front-line units are on REFIT. All STAVKA units are set to non-Refit. I am trying to funnell replacements to combat units, and keep all the new, low-morale ones from filling out.

Moscow:

Near Moscow, 2 German Mountain divisions appear south of town, in my main axis of advance. This should put a halt on that pincer from the South. Heavy fighting, though, around Moscow still. My losses are heavy, it's a question of whether my replacements can keep up with the losses and keep the attacks going.

South of the OKA, Tula will fall next turn, and we are continuing our advance toward Kaluga, which I hope will threaten Moscow from the South.

Orel Sector:

I haven't posted any shots between Tula and Kharkov, because the Germans are falling back faster than I can keep up, even with Cav and tanks. Nothing to see here, other than we are appraoching Kursk/Orel, and I should re-take both

Kharkov:

See shots below; it will fall pretty soon.

Odessa:

The fun is over. As long as that Panzer stack sticks around, I can't really expand out of there. That's OK, if I pin those two divisions, it served it's purpose.

I'm pretty sure Odessa will be a top objective in March to clear.

[TulliusDetritus]

As I expected, you are doing an excellent job: this is a massacre. Ah the gaps he's leaving...

I am not sure what you are doing with the rifle brigades, but believe me, they are UTTERLY useless as diggers [:(] They will NOT build any fort level (a zero) come spring.

You better throw them to the vile enemy. Well, if the big boys (rifle divisions) allow them to bite the German's a** LOL

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

As I expected, you are doing an excellent job: this is a massacre. Ah the gaps he's leaving...

I am not sure what you are doing with the rifle brigades, but believe me, they are UTTERLY useless as diggers [:(] They will NOT build any fort level (a zero) come spring.

You better throw them to the vile enemy. Well, if the big boys (rifle divisions) allow them to bite the German's a** LOL

I have 2 types of Rifle Brigades: Ready and Unready ones. The READY ones come with full TOE's; I am moving them toward the front, as they have good experience and morale usually, though their utility is limited on attack because of the MP penalty.

The UNREADY Rifle Brigades have about 700 men each; they are purely for Fort Maintenence; I park them on lvl-2 forts that I might need later. In some of my shots you see those; they are tending to some forts; not really digging.

The March counterblows are so bad, precisely because you can't really dig forts in advance, and also because the Rivers are all frozen over. There is nothing to stop the Germans, other than woods if you have them.

Some 0-CV shells are back of the front; I hope to build their morale into the 50s, and combine them later into divisions in the summer, when I'll probably need the reinforcements. For now, I want to keep them depleted.

[Flaviusx]

I'm doubting that stack and pullback will work against a Sov who knows how to use his cav correctly. What I would do against an Axis opponent trying this is to mass all my cav in one sector and rush them through the gaps, stacked 3 corps high in order to make them invulnerable to counterattacks in blizzard. Once those get behind the stacks, the German is screwed. They can fan out to his rear and envelop them. Use 3 or so armies for this purpose, 5 cav corps per army, and 4 tank brigades per army, mass them together as a Front. (Maybe under Volkhov. Or perhaps leave them under STAVKA armies.)

The rifle units are purely follow on forces.

You won't be able to do this across the entire front, to be sure. I think I could wreck an Army Group this way, however.

[Klydon]

Lot of partisan units I see in those screen shots. His rail has to be shot up big time if they are that dense.

Looks like he is determined to hold Moscow, but appears vulnerable to flanking actions if you can move fast enough.