Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Michael, if I was the Giants, that's just the way I want it. Really feels like the last time the G Men made a Super Bowl run, yes?

Being a long time Patriot's fan, I could have done without this painful remainder.

[Crackaces]

While our CVEs still loiter at Point Sir Robin, the enemy's CVs pop up just a few hexes south of Adak looking for us. We hope CF is about ready to go home soon, as even sitting still fuel will become an issue soon. It is nice to know where the enemy carriers are.

As a newbie AFB in Aug '42 this is my worst nightmare .. the IJ know exactly where my CV's are and I have no clue where the IJ KB is lurking ..

I am realizing everyday how important the Adak -- Midway -- Johnson Island line is .. and getting this established before the IJ start raiding ..

Ok back to you terrorizing the Pacific Cribtop ..[:D]

[Cribtop]

Yep, CV location is huge. I too am learning how important it is all over again. You really have to calculate the value of any offensive move you make with them vs the loss of uncertainty in your enemy's mind.

[Cribtop]

July 16, 1942

Subs

Yesterday a Glen spotted TKs and APs in harbor. Today CF sends out an ASW TF and engages I-18. We get off scot free until the brilliant sub skipper decides to take a shot at his tormentors, initiating a second round of combat. Naturally we miss and eat a penetrating DC hit in return. The sub will have to head to the barn. This wolf pack will back off for a day or two, watching the map entry hexes.

4th Fleet

Tarawa makes level 3 forts.

SE Fleet

Shortlands makes level 3 airfield now that big engineering units are present.

14th Army

We have just about massaged the garrison requirements to free up another regiment from the central PI. We are using expedients like loading fragments on small xAKLs, flying fragments in using one small transport sentai, etc. Those garrison units due to arrive in September can't get here soon enough.

Given events at Padang yesterday, the last elements of 18th Division will begin loading for the final cleanup at Luzon.

16th Army

Palopo invaded as the DBCL beat goes on.

25th Army

2/3rds of 18th Division is already at Singers, the remaining 1/3rd will load tomorrow. We are dismounting the "2" air groups on a few BBs and CAs at Singers to provide much needed air search of the recently conquered western (map) coast of Sumatra. The units will be "Jakeified" (upped in size to 20 and converted to Jakes). We are going to get some Emilys at Sabang as well.

15th Army

Planning officially commences for Operation Revenge, a 3 division attack on Akyab.

China

A very encouraging start to the battle of Kweilin today. Bombers fly and do good damage, followed by a 1:1 odds assault (missed 2:1 by only a few points) that drops forts to level 1 and inflicts casualties of 3233(28) vs 1446(5). Our units are in great shape and will DA again tomorrow. Additionally, the bomber wing at Hankow will attack in concert with the wing already flying from Canton. With the enemy's adjusted AV at only 711 despite wooded terrain and level 2 forts, Cribtop HQ is feeling good here.

Elsewhere, CF's counter-offensive down the road from Kukong moves adjacent to our blocking force near Wuchow today. He only has 6 LCUs so it's very unlikely he can budge us. It will be interesting to see what he does now, but so far the planned use of 13th Army to effectively pin this force has worked well.

In the center, our reinforced army will follow the KMT stack into the Changsha hex. Intention is to shut down the industry here but more importantly prevent reinforcement by rail of Kweilin.

Finally, Cribtop Intel reports that Chungking makes a level 9 airfield today. [X(] This is very surprising as it seems like a waste of precious Chinese supply. It did give the enemy a net increase of 200 VPs, however.

[Cribtop]

Quick PS. In looking at the stack more carefully, a few of the units at Kweilin are in red supply. We'll wait a day to get back white. We have hordes of supply in the region and are confident we'll quickly re-up. A second 100+ K supply convoy unloaded at Canton in the past week.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

July 16, 1942

Subs

Yesterday a Glen spotted TKs and APs in harbor. Today CF sends out an ASW TF and engages I-18. We get off scot free until the brilliant sub skipper decides to take a shot at his tormentors, initiating a second round of combat. Naturally we miss and eat a penetrating DC hit in return. The sub will have to head to the barn. This wolf pack will back off for a day or two, watching the map entry hexes.


Finally, Cribtop Intel reports that Chungking makes a level 9 airfield today. [X(] This is very surprising as it seems like a waste of precious Chinese supply. It did give the enemy a net increase of 200 VPs, however.

Where was this sub wolfpack operating?

About Chunking, what kind of air power has he been using in China? Any units migrating from Burma/India? He could think it's a good idea to get this to mx to add air if you push to Chunking.

[Cribtop]

Obvert,

Oops, if you change the word "harbor" to "Karachi" my report will make more sense. [;)]

So far, CF used AVG in China a few times, but it was destroyed at Sian and hasn't made another appearance. Other than that, he's got air units at Changsha, Chungking and Chengtu, but only used them a few times near Kweilin and Changsha. We used Oscars to give him a bloody nose and he isn't flying anymore. Once Kweilin falls the front will become more fluid and I plan to begin bombing Chungking's airfield for three reasons, in order: 1) destroy supply; 2) destroy his air force or at least force it to withdraw to the far west (true) of China; and 3) get cheap training for my China air groups in order to generate elite pilots.

Speaking of elite pilots, you should see our IJAAF bomber groups that have been suppressing Clark Field and Bataan since the beginning of the war. Scary good, not that IJAAF bomber pilots are that useful. We'll probably pull them into a special training group and train them up in NavSearch and NavT for Peggys.

[obvert]

If you're serious about going farther in China those IJAAF pilots could come in handy. It's starting to look like you're getting your way there.

Changsha makes sense based on the bombing rules as I understand them for destruction of supply. Each supply hit gets 1% of existing supply, repeating with existing amount for each hit after that, right? So this base usually will have a good amount of supply, for China anyway, meaning you destroy more of the total.

How much supply does it take to repair a point of runway damage?

[Grfin Zeppelin]

ORIGINAL: obvert



How much supply does it take to repair a point of runway damage?

Does not cost any at all.

[Cribtop]

Good thought, Obvert. In China there's less chance of dying from enemy fighter disease.

GZ is correct, there is no longer a supply cost to repair facilities. However, throw enough planes and enough bombs at an airfield (ahh, the linear model) and I've seen upwards of 10 supply hits per turn. My understanding is that each hit results in loss of 1% of remaining supply (meaning only the first hit is technically worth a full 1%), but it's close enough to 1% per hit that only Herwin (RIP old friend [:(]) would bother to do the math.

I do think China is at a tipping point. In fact, I think we are close to breaking through at Kweilin and catching Changsha between two fires. Once the Changsha area bases are taken and Chungking is under aerial assault, China will starve. That's the plan anyway. In Scenario 1, the IJA does this on a shoestring, so we aren't there yet, but I can see daylight through the cracks. IMHO CF should immediately commit his strategic reserve to the southern front, but so far they have only peeled off a few LCUs to oppose our northern pincer (that was our plan, although we wish we had made more noise up north and drawn in more enemy combat power).

On another note, CF informed me by e-mail that he's been letting his AAR languish because of his newborn grand baby but now plans to get back to the writing desk. BANZAI!

[obvert]

Good news about the Gridley AAR. I've been feeling something was missing on the forums lately.

So. Two strategies. Hit the biggest supply depots, so the supply points taken off count for more. The other is to hit any Chinese unit in the clear as it does take supply to rebuild LCUs, correct?

Looks like most of what he has in you game will not be out of the forests anytime soon though.

[Cribtop]

Agreed and agreed, Obvert. I'm hoping that CF concludes the pain is too great near Changsha and he abandons the central front. IMHO doing so will remove enough industry that he's done in China. Recall that the north is conquered and far western China has no LoC to Chungking.

[crsutton]

One of the really hard parts of the game for the Allies is that there is really no hope of using Allied air power in China. No supply. It just can't be done. Even in 1943 when I had my full transport force flee flying supply into Kummin, there was never enough supply to use aircraft in China. For this reason, a totally a-historical game situation arises where the Japanese get a free ride in the air in China-something they did not have in the real deal. Can't be helped.

The betas allow the opportunity to stockpile at a base which might help some but you always need the supply elsewhere so it is difficult to justify wasting it on aircraft operations.

[Cribtop]

Yeah, I remember players thinking of moving through China (not even planning to stay) being warned not to try it for fear of damaged planes and groups becoming trapped due to lack of supply.

It occurs to me that as the Chinese player's airbase options begin to dwindle, as here, his supply problems accelerate as air groups put more supply pressure on a smaller number of bases already under supply pressure for other reasons.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
GZ is correct, there is no longer a supply cost to repair facilities. However, throw enough planes and enough bombs at an airfield (ahh, the linear model) and I've seen upwards of 10 supply hits per turn. My understanding is that each hit results in loss of 1% of remaining supply (meaning only the first hit is technically worth a full 1%), but it's close enough to 1% per hit that only Herwin (RIP old friend [:(]) would bother to do the math.

I actually used to have a spreadsheet that calculated how many hits were needed to kill off 100% of the supply at an isolated base (but it did not take into account supply consumed there obviously). It went the way of the dodo when my computer went belly up. That was a bit overkill. For some reason, the number 121 hits comes to mind. [:'(]

[obvert]

Well, technically you never can destroy all of the supply. Only 1% of what is there each time. But in the beginning that's quite a bit, and then usage in the base itself takes care of it later, I imagine.

In early hits on Changsha, if it has 10,000 supply, would take out around 100. So say you get 1 hit a day on supply. 100 x 30 = 300. Then minus around 40, and you have about 260 per month taken out. Not much. But if you get more than 1 hit a day, it gets to be a lot more. 3 hits a day and it's 750 or so a month, which is a lot for the Chinese if he has 200,000 troops there.

What is the cost to rebuild LCUs in terms of supply?

[ny59giants]

I actually used to have a spreadsheet that calculated how many hits were needed to kill off 100% of the supply at an isolated base (but it did not take into account supply consumed there obviously). It went the way of the dodo when my computer went belly up. That was a bit overkill. For some reason, the number 121 hits comes to mind [:'(]

I got Carbonite last year for this exact reason. It is less than $100 per year. Thankfully, I haven't had to use it, but I will not lose any files if my computer does go "belly up." [;)]

[Cribtop]

July 17, 1942

A Nailbiter in NOPAC. Will the wolves survive?

Subs

IJN ASW harasses Gato at her permanent station near Toyohara. At this point the SCs are trying to spot for the ASW Jakes rather than the other way around.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Truk makes level 5 forts. This was a nice side effect of all those engineers stopping over before shipping out to the perimeter. For a few days we probably had 350+ engineers at the base and zipped up to level 5 ahead of schedule.

14th Army

No change.

16th Army

Palopo occupied. Carnarvon makes level 1 airfield. Is CF planning something here?

25th Army

Loading at Padang for Luzon.

15th Army

No change.

China

Our LCUs at Kweilin are back in the white. Massed air attacks hit the enemy there, both airfield and ground troops. We DA again tomorrow and have a good chance of a capture.

5th Fleet

Quite a chess game here. Our fuel is getting low even though we've kept the CVE Raiders stationary. We must head West soon. Meanwhile, subs and Jakes near Adak confirm the enemy CVs are proceeding due East near Umnak Island. To complicate things, a Val reports a contact near the Raider TF, surely a sub. Did CF have a sub radio in that it spotted an IJN dive bomber? Yikes.

We guess that CF is back-tracking, having now wondered whether we went NE after first contact. If we stay still, he'll nail us in about 48 hours. However, if we move SW and he gives up on his easterly sweep, he will probably retire toward Pearl and luck into an intercept. We decide to gamble that he will continue East tomorrow and thus order our CVEs to leave Point Sir Robin a/k/a the Hole in the Ocean on a SW course. White Knuckle time tomorrow. Will we die or slip past?

[Canoerebel]

Zoiks!  This is the kind of peril that makes this game just spectacular.  Can you believe we get to play this game for years and years? 

[Cribtop]

It really is amazing, CR. So fun to know there's another human mind pulling the strings of the enemy forces. It means you have to play smart, but also opens up a whole level of feint and deception, too. My BP will spike watching the AM air phase of the next replay!