Under the Red Banner: Q-Ball (R) v Baelfiin (Axis)

[Texasgrunt]

1) amph in an army or two to Rumania. Teach him to take Odessaor lose the south flank.

2) Drive to NW Vyazma, to threaten the rail line to Moscow.

Thenhe has to pull out.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Honestly, I think he will go for the knock out shot with a drive to the north to the EAST of the Valdi Hills through VV and points north. Should your dispositions remain as they are, he will bag an enormous amount of the Red army. This is the area of the map that you appear to be most vulnerable in to that sort of manuver. Even if he settles for lopping off a big chunk, it will hurt bad. He is also positioned to launch some sort of offensive in the south by heading east and then south to the Sea of Azov, but I don't think he will bag as much down there and he knows it.

It appears you can still make hay south of Moscow by driving NW. Perhaps you can get him to back up some more.

North is exactly what I think he is going to try. Why?

First, as you mention, my front-line forces there are really weak.

Second, he is really committing to hold a line right at Rhzev. The only reason to do that is if you anticipate a drive north. Oh yeah, and he went half-way there last Snow season.

NW Front is weak, but I have alot of reserves behind there, up by V-V and points north. I have at least 20 divisions in that space digging a checkerboard of trenches; plus, of course, the terrain is favorable to the defense.

I am not done yet, but I am very aware of this as a potential axis, and plan to move more troops there. Probably the most I have.

You are also right on the Sea of Azov, though I am not flooding that area with units. That's too dangerous.

[Encircled]

You should have enough Recon units to identify where his troops are building up.

If he goes for the North, the terrain is massively in your favour, and you will hold him off with ease

You should be able to give yourself (with recon) about two to three turns warning of where he is coming, and that should be enough

[Peltonx]

Even if he takes leningrad as long as you make it painfull and don't have a major opps your ahead of the game.

The main push by the Red Horde is in the south.

I think the smart thing would be to retake Moscow and push/ pocket units to the south of it for a month or 2 then try for Leningrad in late August after he weakens you.

If he trys for Leningrad first he will probably not have the strength to clear the south.

He can set the table to take Leningrad during July with infantry attacks.

Pelton

[Q-Ball]

1/31/42:

I haven't posted for a couple turns, but with my guys slowing down, not a ton to really report, since Moscow was abandoned.

Our attacks have tapered-off, primarily due to long supply lines, changing CVs, and stiffening resistance.

Moscow Front:

We have advanced another 3 hexes past Moscow, but there is a very strong, 3-deep wall of Germans in a great semi-circle covering Rzhev and Vyazma.

I am able to punch here and there, but for the most part, this wedge is impregnible. I am going around the edges, but even there, there is significant risk in doing so.

Northern Front:

I basically halted 5 hexes past Pskov, which is ridiculously far in front. I make attacks to run-up Victory totals, but that's my only reason. Further north, I am approaching Talinin (!), which is crazy-far in front of my lines.

I plan a big pullback in March, at least to the Luga River. There is no reason to try to hold all this empty space.

South of Moscow:

We have cleared Kaluga, Sumy, and Poltava, among other towns, and we are at the gates of Bryansk. This is very deep into the Ukraine, and it's making me nervous being so far forward of my rail lines.

But I keep going, to rack-up some wins and keep the pressure on. I have 3 Guards Cav Corps now, and 5 Guards Infantry, and I am trying to run the count up further. Once a unit hits GUARDS, I am moving it to the rear; no reason to get chewed-up forward come Snow.

[Q-Ball]

Feb 5, 1942

Still Blizzard all around the front.

QUESTION: On Random weather, if a non-Blizzard result is rolled, are all First-Winter effects also cancelled for that turn? (including Morale, Supply, etc.?)

I am winding down the Blizzard offensive, and starting to dig. Because I have taken so much ground, I am in a vulnerable position, particularly in the Center.

We had 10 successful attacks this turn, but all of them were really just attempts to get some cheap wins before Snow.

Where I am in contact with the Germans, I would either have to advance into space to keep winning, or he is stacked-up deep with strong units I can't push (all around Moscow, and also Krivoi Rog).

So, my Blizzard is about over. I will keep contact with the Germans to attrite them and cause morale hits, but I just don't have many attack opportunities anymore.

Center:

Between Kaluga and Dnepropetrovsk, we advanced on average 20 to 25 hexes. The problem is we also completely outran our Rail Lines, so in many places, my front units are 15 hexes or so off the Railhead. That is not good.

It's not just for REFIT or supplies, but the big problem is that a counteroffensive in this area will get away from me quickly, because I can't move reserves into an area without Railways. He could gobble-up hopeless immobile units. The only saving grace is 20 hexes in Snow is a supply problem for the Germans too.

I am worried about this area.

Odessa:

I am also winding down Odessa. This was an interesting interlude, but taking space around the port has the unfortunate consequence that if I do have to retreat, I will retreat out of the town and into Fields where my units will die. (Rather than rout to safety)

I am down to 2 Brigades there now, and I am debating whether to just pull them, as a strong attack will kill them.

I hate to give it up without a fight, but it may be time.

I would recommend to everyone: If you are playing Soviets, make the Germans kick you out of there in Summer 1941 (just leave a unit there). And if you are playing Germans, make sure you send a couple German divisions down there to do that. Can't leave it alone to just Romanians.

Snow Preparations:

In general, I am starting to shift my units. I am pulling units I don't want to lose off the line, including Guards, Cav Corps, and Mountain Units. These are moving into deeper reserve. I have been pulling all Guards anyway as soon as they flip, in order to let other units have a chance to rack-up wins, and keep them out of harm's way.

I am moving "cheap" units forward, so if he does make a major move, I lose more units I don't care about; Rifle and Tank Brigades. Tank Brigades in particular, if he doesn't kill some I will have to disband them anyway, because I don't have the Trucks to support 96 Tank Brigades, or 32 Tank Corps.

Rifle Units with more than 8 wins, I am moving backwards as well.

I can give up tons of ground without a problem, so this is one area where I am in good shape at the moment

[Klydon]

I would leave a couple of units in Odessa. Make him work at taking you out, even if you lose the two brigades.

I would also have the Crimean bottlenecks guarded if you have them fortified, but you probably already have this done.

I am impressed at his manpower at this point. The Luftwaffe also appears to be in good shape plane count wise as well. Tanks are a bit low, but he will have more coming on line soon.

I don't know if he has decided not to garrision, but that seems like a ton of partisan units on the map.

Certainly some interesting tactics by the Axis in this game and you get the feeling he is going to be looking to kick some major butt soon.

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I am impressed at his manpower at this point.

Don't be. It's fairly trivial in 1.05 for the Axis to preserve their manpower. Only a major disaster will drop them below 3 million. Most of the time under the present ruleset the Axis will be well above that by the end of February. The recovery of disableds has been massively accelerated, too.

The blizzard isn't what it used to be.

Just look around at all the other AARs post 1.05. Or play the game solo. Manpower just isn't a constraining factor now in this blizzard period.

[Q-Ball]

Feb 12, 1942:

I think there is no doubt the Wehrmacht is in decent shape, considering. His tank losses are fairly low at this stage, and his troop count is decent, boosted no doubt by almost 180K in Hiwis from all the POWs he took.

He is behind in territory, but in good position to get a whole lot back pretty quickly. And I am not in good position to resist that, at least not in the Ukriane, where he should be able to roll me at least as far as Kharkov, the Crimean exits, and the Donbas without a problem.

We are rotating some units getting ready for this, by taking units I want to keep off the front lines (Guards, Cav, Mtn).

Attacks: We launched only 7 attacks this turn, in all cases trying to get some wins. I have a couple Tank Brigades close to Guards possibility; I want to push them over, so I can get at least 1 Guards Tank Corps.

Red Army:

At least our numbers should also be pretty strong.

I now have 13 Guards Divisions and climbing (plus 5 Guards Cav Corps), and I'm moving them back into Reserve for now. I am trying to get all formations to mid-40s morale before sending them forward. I have alot of units behind the lines, gaining morale.

I formed another 5 Rifle Brigades with Excess APs; I would like an inventroy in case I lose alot of units in 1942, which I probably will.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I am impressed at his manpower at this point.

Don't be. It's fairly trivial in 1.05 for the Axis to preserve their manpower. Only a major disaster will drop them below 3 million. Most of the time under the present ruleset the Axis will be well above that by the end of February. The recovery of disableds has been massively accelerated, too.

The blizzard isn't what it used to be.

Just look around at all the other AARs post 1.05. Or play the game solo. Manpower just isn't a constraining factor now in this blizzard period.

3.4 million at this point is clearly better then average. In my other 3 game's 1.05 ( - TDV 2.8) all had 3.1 million on turn 38. Vs M60 I had 3.17 million and I had a good spring and summer. M60 had 6.2 million.

So Axis is a little better then average and Russian is about average. This numbers are following trends in most of the AAR's

Germans are coming out of Blizzard with about 3.1 to 3.3 million.
Russians are coming out of Blizzard with about 6 million.

So if you +/- these numbers you have a good idea of how your doing.

My game vs TVD we are both below averge GHC 2.7 and SHC 5.2 million.

I would say over-all if you take all the AAR's as a hole 1941 really settles nothing, which is great.

1942 is the key yr and even then if the Russian player is not using his AP's right the German player can easly get a draw.

Its looking more an more like a fixed table might have been better for the game, giving the Russian player the freedom to build what they like can do more harm then good in most cases.

Pelton

[Q-Ball]

For comparison, my game vs. Bletchley Geek, I had 70,000 less than Baelfiin does at this point, and my Soviets have 371,000 more than Bletchely Geek did. So, less on both sides, by about the same amount of combat power. Roughly.

Baelfiin is also up on my Death Ride game by about 180 tanks vs. where I was. So, he'll have enough tanks in 1942 to cause some damage, for sure.

The only saving grace is that I think I have more Manpower working than Bletchley Geek did at this stage, so I should be able to lose alot of guys in 1942 and keep the Red Army growing (hopefully).

[Q-Ball]

2/26/42

Last turn of Blizzard, and only 2 attacks on our part, as we are digging and prepping for the inevitable counterblow. In fact, it came a little early in the South Soviet zone, with a turn of SNOW, rather than Blizzard.

Final Tally of Losses:

Germans: 650,000 Total, only 400 AFVs

We did get 65,000 POWs, so some of those losses are permanent

We lost 625,000

Overall, I think a light Blizzard all around. His losses were fairly light, though he surrendered a ton of ground in return.

Red Army OOB is currently 6.1 mil.

What Next:

Obviously German attacks. The question is: Where?

I anticipate attacks around Rhzev, because that is where he has Panzers concentrated. That is also where I have the most units concentrated. This is the initial target in Snow, methinks.

Long-Term in Summer, I think Baelfiin has some good choices.

Choice #1 is a drive straight north from Rhzev to the Finns, with the objective of cutting-off Leningrad, pocketing Leningrad Front, and freeing the Finns for further operations.

Choice #2 is a double-envelopment of Moscow. He could combine #1 and #2 at once by driving north of Rhzev, and keep me guessing. Or make up his mind later which way to go. I think this is a very likely outcome.

Choice #3 is a drive in the south, to basically gobble-up ground, and take the Donbas. He may try a limited drive, but I think he needs to go all-in to make huge progress.

I most fear #3. While #1 is scary, I also think it's an opportunity to slug it out in woods and favorable terrain. The South is just a big empty chessboard where I can lose lots of men.

Would welcome your thoughts. Looking at the map from Feb 5, which hasnt' changed much, what would you do?

[karonagames]

Looking at the map from Feb 5, which hasnt' changed much, what would you do?

If I was the Axis Player I would do for a 1 2. make a really strong punch from Kharkov to Rostov to try to trap everything south of Kharkov, then with soviet focus and reserves in the south I would go for an uppercut - Tula-Moscow.

[Ketza]

He needs to make up lost ground in the South or face some severe issues in 43 when your horde gets some real teeth.

I think he has to do something there.

[Q-Ball]

Bob's take is interesting, and not a bad idea; focus on clear terrain, and threaten Moscow from the South.

I would much prefer to slug it out in the Woods north of Moscow. While I think he can take alot of ground and kill units, I don't think he'll hurt the Red Army as much in that direction. I don't think he can get to Cherepovets from Rhzev; that's a long way.

The threat of it, though, has drawn reinforcements to that area, and probably opened-up possibilities in the South. You can't defend everything.

I think he can hurt me more in the south, both in capturing Red Army, and destruction of Manpower. The Donbas is untouched, and there is alot of Manpower in that region, not just in the 3 cities, but lots of size-3 and 4 towns as well.

I am over 6 mil men and getting over 100K in Manpower per turn. My armament production is excellent. It's too late to limit my armametns, so if he wants to prevent the Red Army from getting massive, he has to attack my Manpower. He has to try to get me behind in APs and Manpower to stall me in 1943-44.

I am working ahead on APs by spending my excess on Rifle Brigades; I have about 50 "shells" at this point, ready to replace lost units.

[Q-Ball]

T40-3/19/42

Forgot to post a couple turns. It's been Snow season, and so far, "March Madness" hasn't been that terrible, to be honest. I mean, it's not a picnic, but I will live.

So far, Baelfiin has destroyed 10 division equivalents, with another 2 Divisions pocketed, and 3 more doomed. Anything under 25 or so is OK: Against B-G we bagged 36 in Snow, and he had decent defenses dug.

Baelfiin is making a couple strange attacks, one toward Leningrad through swamps, and the other in the Crimea. He is also attacking toward Orel, and rolling me there.

We are trading back space I didn't intend to hold, especially west of Leningrad. Pskov was abandoned to the Germans; it will probably be a long time before I'm back there!!!

I will likely have to abandon Poltava, D-Town, Z-Town, and Orel shortly.

He is also attacking near Moscow one hex at a time, and taking losses.

I may eat my words in a couple turns, but so far, I can live with this March.

Red Army:

I created more Rifle Brigades to stay ahead of losses. I am really trying to hold units back until they are in high-40s morale and have experience above 40. In my experience, anything in the 30s runs too easy. At least in the 40s, they will dish-out some losses.

[Flaviusx]

You won so much ground during the blizzard that it's more or less cancelling the effect of march madness, I think. So long as you don't try to hold these extended positions in strength, no big deal. Nor is the Axis concentrating on anything in particular, it's just a big land grab across the whole length of the front.

You didn't hurt him much during the blizzard, because he ran -- and you are returning the favor right now during the snow. So the game has basically reset itself.

[Peltonx]

The number of tanks at this point means nothing, they are junk and get up-graded.

I can do the same spring offensive with 800 tanks as 2100 and have done so in the past. The key is mobility.

Gaining back the south can be done before summer even starts if hes got his forses in plase by late February. Waiting until June to start offensive is a big mistake for any German player. He should be able to pick off a few small pockets every turn from March - June from Tula south. The small spring offensives make sure that the Russian player is not dug in much come summer.

He has saved allot of units I am guessing and will have some major punching power come spring and summer.

He strange attacks might be to cross rivers as most run north to south as per my game vs M60 so he can easly out flank them come summer. Hes starnge attacks in other locations is setting the table for summer.

Snow and Spring turns should set the table come summer.

Pelton

[Klydon]

The bad thing for the Germans (good for Russians) is the rails are going to be a mess for a bit and while eventually the Germans will hit the Russian main line of resistance, his railheads are going to be back from the front a bit. A lot of those units that wintered out of theater are going to wear themselves down some moving forward rather than railing up to the front.

[Q-Ball]

There is no doubt I am benefiting from being able to withdraw. And, his attacks might be to clean-up his flanks now, and hit me more in the Center come summer. That's possible.

If he makes a major effort on Leningrad, I don't think I can hold it, but I don't think he can take that, AND make a major push around Moscow. He can probably gobble up some space in the center regardless, but not a big runaway unless he puts some effort into it.

I have no doubt that Baelfiin will make some hay this summer, as he clearly stashed some units to keep them strong. Wehrmacht strength is fine, and he'll recover morale through attacking.

The fact we are playing Random Weather will limit the spring mud, and keep me from recovering as much otherwise.