Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

10/14/42 and 10/15/42
 
Java Sea: The Japanese Navy finally made an appearance.  CA Atago led a handful of destroyers into combat in the straights between Billiton Island and Bangka.  In a clash with a small American APD/DMS TF, neither side suffered any real damage.  In a subsequent clash with a mixed Allied CL/DD force, no meaningful blows were struck.  The Allied CLs will have to retire to Cocos Island to replenish torps.  I'm hoping Atago will also have to retire (probably to Saigon).  These two clashes probably stopped Atago from finding any merchantmen, which are currently unloading at Toboali, Billiton and Ketapang (the latter TF is carrying a Port Service unit, but fortunately enemy patrols haven't sighted this TF).  Billiton Island airfield went to level three.  A detachment of 5th Marines is on the way to Ketapang.
 
DEI:  Elsewhere, everything looks good.  Engineers have arrived at Djambi, a potential level 9 airfield just south of Singapore.  The Allies intend to build this base out.
 
Burma:  The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe Continues (the "Very" has been added in recognition of the Allies taking all hexsides and thus truly isolating the enemy force here).
 
China:  An interesting battle developing just south (true) of Chengchow.  A big Chinese army of 5,800 AV had retired a hex.  A smaller Japanese force (two divisions and a mixed brigade followed.  So the Chinese turned around to advance and attack this force.  Japanese air attacks slowed down some of the advancing Chinese, so the first attack consisted of only 2,000 AV fully supplied.  I thought that would be enough, but it was a strong 1:1 attack with the Chinese taking heavier casualties but little disruption.  Most of the rest of the Chinese army is in place now (4,000 AV total) with only two units in bad shape.  This army will attack again tomorrow. The danger is that there is a 15-unit stack of Japanese at Chengchow - one hex to the north.  If that army is on the move to reinforce the exposed units, then the Chinese could get a bloody nose.  It's worth the risk to hammer two exposed Japanese divisions.
 
NoPac: No sign of imminent enemy counterinvasion in the Kuriles.  16 more days until winter....

[Miller]

Hey Dan what is the turn frequency at the moment? This game seems to have been crawling for the last few months............

[obvert]

Burma: The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe Continues (the "Very" has been added in recognition of the Allies taking all hexsides and thus truly isolating the enemy force here).

When you have all hex sides, does this also mean no supply flows into the hex to the surrounded troops?

[desicat]

I just don't think he has it in him to invade Para before Winter hits. I suspect he has spent this whole time reenforcing the other islands in the chain.

Just one more nail...

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Miller
Hey Dan what is the turn frequency at the moment? This game seems to have been crawling for the last few months............

We started the game 11 months ago and we've played 10 months into the war (Dec. '41 to Oct. '42). At first, we got in two turns per day, but Chez had a major job change in April that dropped us to one. We've maintained that pace pretty steadily, though I had to be away from the game for a week in December, and then Chez sent the wrong turn four times in one five day stretch in late December. Those two pauses really seemed to slow down the game.

I think my plan is to seriously consider starting a new game once this one reaches 1943. If Chez doesn't commit wholeheartedly to stopping the Allied expansion in the Java Sea, the game will be over for all intents and purposes by that date.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: desicat
I just don't think he has it in him to invade Para before Winter hits. I suspect he has spent this whole time reenforcing the other islands in the chain.

Just one more nail...

That would be a catastrophic and inexplicable mistake on his part, but I think there's a decent chance you're going to be right.

Since the conclusion of the last major Allied offensive operation (invasion of Ndeni followed by occupation and building of Port Moresby and Milne Bay), the main Allied plan has been to have the assets in place to take advantage of a major enemy operation in the Kuriles before winter set in. The plan was to take advantage of the enemy being elsewhere to expand into the DEI in a major way. The Allied assets are indeed in place now, and the expansion into the Java Sea has begun, but there is still no sign of enemy action in the Kuriles.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Burma: The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe Continues (the "Very" has been added in recognition of the Allies taking all hexsides and thus truly isolating the enemy force here).

When you have all hex sides, does this also mean no supply flows into the hex to the surrounded troops?

I think that's the case. I'm operating on that assumption.

[Canoerebel]

10/16/42
 
DEI:  CL Helena hits a mine at Toabali.  Allied ASW hammers an RO-boat, and damages an I-boat, in the vicinity.  The port service unit is ashore at Ketapang with a battalion of 5th Marines coming in tonight.  Reinforcements including armor, engineers and Chindits just arrived at Oosthaven.

Burma:  The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.

China:  The Japanese force near Chengchow holds against another 1:1 attack, but suffers disproportionately heavy casualties.  The adjusted AV of one of the two divisions drops to zero.  If, as expected, the Chinese dislodge the Japanese with the next attack, both Japanese divisions are going to be in very bad shape.  The two divisions involved are 23rd and 25th, which are both from nothern Manchuria.  After all the damage the Japanese army took in China during the spring and summer offensives, I cannot believe Steve has exposed two divisions against an experienced Chinese army of 5,500 AV.  Inexplicable.  (There is a chance the IJ army will be reinforced from the stack at adjacent Chengchow, but it's still inexplicable.)

NoPac:  No sign of imminent enemy counterinvasion.

[obvert]

Do you have any ideal plans for the Chindits or will they simply be in the area to take advantage of opportunities. Also, do you have an idea of his fortification and garrison levels on Borneo and Java?

[Canoerebel]

1.  The Chindit units are prepping for various targets in western Borneo, including Kuching and Beaufort (a small base just north of Brunei).
 
2.  For the near term, the Allied plan is to occupy and build Ketapang and Pontianak large - securing these critical bases.  At some point, the Allies can advance overland from Pontianak to Singkawang via land campaign.  If the Allies take Singkawang, I think that should essentially negate Steve's ability to use Singapore.  That, in turn, finishes his ability to adequately supply and defend Burma.
 
3.  Once Ketapang and Pontianak are secure and built out (and Singkawang taken, if still not strongly defended), the Allies will also have air bases within range to deal with Brunei, Miri, Balikpapan etc. 
 
4.  Where to from there?  In part, this will be determined by where the best opportunities lie (where the defenses seem vulnerable).  This could be western Borneo, southeastern and then eastern Borneo, or even Malaya.  But, at this point, I think the most likely target would be western Java - primarily Merak, but probably including Batavia.  Right now, these bases are weakly defended.  I can see a point in the not too distant future where the Allies would feel free to devote a fair portion of the current Sumatra garrison (defensive) to a campaign (offensive) in western Java.  As the Allied position in the Java Sea and Borneo bases grow, the peril to Sumatra declines, so the Allies will be able to draw down Sumatra to go on the offensive.
 
5.  There are a number of vacant bases on Borneo that are still Allied-controlled, meaning no forts.  I likewise suspect that Japanese forts in western Java are low, only because Steve hasn't ever committed major assets in the area.

[obvert]

From an earlier map I remember there were some choice locations still in Allied control. Once you have the bases on Borneo, and those are secure, if he hasn't taken those spots and brought in more garrisons it would be all too easy to start flying raider units and engineers around and have outposts building all over behind enemy lines. That is in addition to the very solid plans outlined above, which seem daunting enough, and it's almost impossible to see the Japanese countering any of them at this point.

Such an odd game. I still keep being surprised by the date, in 42.

[Canoerebel]

The rapidly developing situation in the Java Sea.

[Canoerebel]

P.S. Also, take note of the dot hex (Singtang) base up the river (inland) from Pontianak.  I've never made use of that hex before.  I've never heard of anybody making use of it.  But I can envision it being made use of in this game.  Assuming, that is, that it can be supplied by small xAKL or barges from Pontianak.  Under those circumstances, it would be worth developing that into an airbase proximate to pretty much everything on the island of Borneo.  It can be built to level eight. (I don't have barges yet, but don't the Allies get them eventually?)

[zuluhour]

removed. wrong idea.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. Also, take note of the dot hex (Singtang) base up the river (inland) from Pontianak.  I've never made use of that hex before.  I've never heard of anybody making use of it.  But I can envision it being made use of in this game.  Assuming, that is, that it can be supplied by small xAKL or barges from Pontianak.  Under those circumstances, it would be worth developing that into an airbase proximate to pretty much everything on the island of Borneo.  It can be built to level eight. (I don't have barges yet, but don't the Allies get them eventually?)

You start getting Landing Craft instead of barges.

It would make a useful airbase for your short legged fighters and light/medium bombers to close down some oil ports.

I have, just because I could, sent a Bn there once as well as invaded Groot Nateuna, even the AI kicks you out quickly.

[zuluhour]

looks like '44 to me

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: obvert

Burma: The Very Happy Stalemate at Magwe Continues (the "Very" has been added in recognition of the Allies taking all hexsides and thus truly isolating the enemy force here).

When you have all hex sides, does this also mean no supply flows into the hex to the surrounded troops?

I think that's the case. I'm operating on that assumption.

Supply flows across owned and neutral hexsides. It doesn't flow across enemy owned hexsides.

Alfred

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. Also, take note of the dot hex (Singtang) base up the river (inland) from Pontianak.  I've never made use of that hex before.  I've never heard of anybody making use of it.  But I can envision it being made use of in this game.  Assuming, that is, that it can be supplied by small xAKL or barges from Pontianak.  Under those circumstances, it would be worth developing that into an airbase proximate to pretty much everything on the island of Borneo.  It can be built to level eight. (I don't have barges yet, but don't the Allies get them eventually?)

Ingame that is not a navigable river. Although Singtang is classified as a "Base" and not an "AF" you can't actually build any port facilities there. It might or might not be a map anomaly, that is a question for Andrew Brown's expertise.

Alfred

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. Also, take note of the dot hex (Singtang) base up the river (inland) from Pontianak.  I've never made use of that hex before.  I've never heard of anybody making use of it.  But I can envision it being made use of in this game.  Assuming, that is, that it can be supplied by small xAKL or barges from Pontianak.  Under those circumstances, it would be worth developing that into an airbase proximate to pretty much everything on the island of Borneo.  It can be built to level eight. (I don't have barges yet, but don't the Allies get them eventually?)

Ingame that is not a navigable river. Although Singtang is classified as a "Base" and not an "AF" you can't actually build any port facilities there. It might or might not be a map anomaly, that is a question for Andrew Brown's expertise.

Alfred

Too bad. It certainly looks navigable.

[Canoerebel]

10/17/42
 
Not the best of days for Japan.  To be honest, I'm starting to wonder why we are playing this game.

The Place where Japanese Divisions Go to Die (China):  A third successive Chinese deliberate attack near Chengchow does the trick, dislodging and mauling two IJA divisions (23 and 25) and a brigade.  That's at least ten IJA divisions that have been "blown up" in China during the spring, summer and now autumn offensive.  All of these have been in small stacks that were negligently exposed to defeat in detail, but these last two were in a particularly ill-advised advance against a massive Chinese stack.

The Place where Japanese Divisions Go to Get Isolated (Burma):  4th Guards and 33rd (and Guards Tank) Divisions are isolated at Magwe.  No sign of a Japanese plan to come to their rescue.  The cordon isolating them isn't real strong, so you'd expect Japan to work on this, but I refer you to the next paragraph.

The Place where Japanese Divisions are Well and Truly Isolated (Sumatra):  21st and 38th Divisions (and two tank regiments) have been isolated at Padang for months.  I detect no evidence of an IJ plan to extract or relieve these units, and at this point it will take an all-out and therefore wasteful effort (because this hex is off in a corner where a major commitment is a waste even if successful) to even try. 

The Place where Japan has Every Advantage but May Squander the Opportunity (Kuriles):  Onne and Para are exposed, relatively weakly garrisoned, and for months had zero supply.  Through an appropriate use of sea and air power, Japan can impose an unbreakable blockade.  Then Japan can (relatively) easily reclaim both islands, removing a major thorn in the flesh.  While the opportunity was even better back during the summer monthhs (due to lack of Allied supply), it's still a good one...for 13 more days until winter sets in.  If Japan doesn't act now to reclaim these bases, by next spring both will be reinforced, fully supplied, and fort levels will be considerably higher.  If Japan doesn't counterinvade by the end of October....well, why are we playing this game?

The Place where Japan Already Squandered its Opportunities (DEI):  5th Marines have come ashore (134 AV) at Ketapang in good order.  The Allies are rapidly garrisoning their new northern "perimeter" (Pontianak and Ketapang) while Japan offers little to no resistance.  Troops are pouring into Oosthaven, where they then re-embark on smaller, less risky TFs for transfer to the Java Sea bases (the two just mentioned plus Billiton, Toboali and Muntok).  Lots more troops on the way.

Here's the Combat Report for the Whupping Taken by the Two IJA Divisions near Chenghow:
 
Ground combat at 87,45

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 142975 troops, 848 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 5421

Defending force 19053 troops, 267 guns, 35 vehicles, Assault Value = 444

Allied adjusted assault: 2683

Japanese adjusted defense: 462

Allied assault odds: 5 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     11124 casualties reported
        Squads: 412 destroyed, 43 disabled
        Non Combat: 451 destroyed, 55 disabled
        Engineers: 37 destroyed, 9 disabled
     Guns lost 23 (11 destroyed, 12 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 23 (23 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Units retreated 3 

Allied ground losses:
     1880 casualties reported
        Squads: 5 destroyed, 134 disabled
        Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 158 disabled
        Engineers: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled 

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
   93rd Chinese Corps
   2nd Chinese Cavalry Corps
   59th Chinese Corps
   13th Chinese Corps
   9th Chinese Corps
   85th Chinese Corps
   47th Chinese Corps
   89th Chinese Corps
   96th Chinese Corps
   45th Chinese Corps
   75th Chinese Corps
   36th Chinese Corps
   68th Chinese Corps
   67th Chinese Corps
   61st Chinese Corps
   80th Chinese Corps
   90th Chinese Corps
   40th Chinese Corps
   38th Chinese Corps
   98th Chinese Corps
   3rd Group Army
   33rd Group Army
   24th Group Army
   2nd Group Army
   26th Group Army
   4th Group Army
   36th Group Army
   39th Group Army

Defending units:
   23rd Division
   59th Infantry Brigade
   25th Division