The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GJ's carrier force should be fine in the roll it must play for the next few months - making sure the LOC between Hokkaido and the USA remains open.  If rader ventures that far forward, any ships that are seriously damaged could well be lost due to distances and subs.

Rader will want to look for chances to use his carriers now in a major way.  Something that will hurt GJ or force him to move much more slowly.  A raid into NoPac or the West Coast is just about the only thing that has a chance of accomplishing that.  Those are the only raids that would matter, so that's where one is going to take place.

GJ could get clever and deploy his carriers in a raid into the DEI, but that would be risky (due to LBA threat) and unlikely to contribute anything meaningful to the war effort.  The carriers are of much more use in NoPac.

If I were GJ, I probably would try to cobble together a 1,000 or 1,500 AV force in the Indian Ocean that I could use to invade a tight group of islands that would give me some airbases to mess with rader.  The Island groups off eastern Java or off the western side of Sumatra (Nicobars and the islands just off the Sumatran coast) would be likely targets.  I wouldn't even bother covering the invasion with carriers.  Count on surprise to get in before the enemy could react.

You know what? I think, given the inferiority of my CV force right now, i'm thinking - seriously - to use my CV/CVEs in a kamikaze role against the KB.
No CAP. Zero. Nada. 100% Escort with with a decent lot of TBs and SDBs...deliver a single devastating blow, lose the rest of my CVs, but clear the problem once for all, negating the priviledge of platforms for both parts.

No, sorry but i don't have the means (nor the time) for a landing operation in the DEI. Rader has fortified that area massively and a couple of Frances Daitais could easily sink a whole invasion fleet...and you know how many air groups Rader has...

Let's forget about the idea of interrupting the flux of oil from the DEI. Let's live with the idea that THIS Japan must be won frontally or not at all.

...yeah...the more i think of it the more i like the idea of a Kamikaze CVTF....

The KB can sink a couple of convoys...i will leave without em... but as soon as it shows her position...be sure i'll be on her tail...and those waters are MY waters...with MY subs and MY search planes...and MY LBAs...

[hades1001]

You sound like Guru now. MY precious~

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


You know what? I think, given the inferiority of my CV force right now, i'm thinking - seriously - to use my CV/CVEs in a kamikaze role against the KB.
No CAP. Zero. Nada. 100% Escort with with a decent lot of TBs and SDBs...deliver a single devastating blow, lose the rest of my CVs, but clear the problem once for all, negating the priviledge of platforms for both parts.

No, sorry but i don't have the means (nor the time) for a landing operation in the DEI. Rader has fortified that area massively and a couple of Frances Daitais could easily sink a whole invasion fleet...and you know how many air groups Rader has...

Let's forget about the idea of interrupting the flux of oil from the DEI. Let's live with the idea that THIS Japan must be won frontally or not at all.

...yeah...the more i think of it the more i like the idea of a Kamikaze CVTF....

The KB can sink a couple of convoys...i will leave without em... but as soon as it shows her position...be sure i'll be on her tail...and those waters are MY waters...with MY subs and MY search planes...and MY LBAs...

I doubt very much you will get the outcome you seek but if you must go down the path of sending a "kamikaze" Allied carrier fleet, consider doing it this way.

1. Assemble a really large fleet of transports and merchantmen which would look like an invasion fleet.

2. The invasion fleet would be largely empty but fragments of LCUs should be embarked.

3. Include in the invasion fleet 1, perhaps 2 CVEs who will be on 100% maximum ASW/naval search at maximum range and when passing near Japanese seaplane bases up CAP to 100%. The idea is that radio traffic from the invasion fleet will be picked up by rader and he becomes aware of its progress.

4. Send the invasion fleet on a heading to the Bonins from Allied LBA controlled air space.

5. Trailing behind the invasion fleet, at a distance of 4-5 hexes is the Allied "kamikaze" carrier fleet maintaining absolute radio silence. IOW the carriers would run zero bomber ASW/naval search plus zero plus zero CAP.


The idea is to convince rader that you are trying to invade and capture air bases which allow you to open a new aerial front, thus utilising your most effective current weapon system.

The target has to be one which gives him confidence that he can use the KB safely, thus it must be away from the current Allied airbases in Hokkaido. You instead are using the invasion fleet as a decoy both to draw out the KB out to battle plus to allow the KB to expend sorties. Once the invasion fleet has been targetted, your trailing carriers then sprint in at maximum speed to catch a KB which is either remaining for turn 2 to destroy the rest of the invasion fleet which is retiring back to home port.

Alfred

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: kfsgo

ORIGINAL: hades1001

Did I missed anything?

And city attacks are restricted for some reason. In fact you can't target a city attack unless you are in range, which gives the enemy a day to prepare.

Yes - the range restriction is on naval attacks, not ground attacks.

[Canoerebel]

GJ, I hope you're joking, because that's a terrible plan.  What's likely to happen is that your strike package will be socked in by bad weather while rader's won't (that's how karma works when you try to draw to an inside straight).  You'll lose all your carriers and he won't lose any.
 
Why not just preserve your carrier fleet?  Even now, you can probably go head-to-head with the KB in the open ocean and at least hold your own.  In a few more months, with more reinforcemetns, you'll have superioririty once again.
 
Never trust your emotions and gut instincts in the immediate aftermath of a terrible carrier loss.  There should be a new chaper in the Physician's Desk Reference for AE players who have suffered massive carrier losses (with poor ol' Yubari the poster boy).  Give it a week and you'll feel much better.  After all the Allies are in the driver's seat in this game.  You're in GREAT shape!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

How very familiar...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOCe2Y7iVF8

MacArthur's rep is going to be even worse in your reality with the Aussies than it was IRL. [:-]

Sabaton ftw! [8D]

[Canoerebel]

Here's what I would do under these circumstances.
 
I would want to open a network of interlocking bases in the DEI - two or three or four islands that have airfields that can be built large.  Taking and building these bases will allow me to threaten (or punish) every strategic resource in range.  If that poses a threat to rader, he'll have to commit fighters.  If it doesn't pose a threat, he won't, but then I won't have committed anything I can't afford to commit, so it's no loss to me anyway.
 
I would identify the target islands and commit perhaps 350 AV to each.  I would use expendable ships that would go in with no escort other than DDs and maybe a CL or two.  I would bring several engineering and base force units for each base.  I would go in blind, counting on surprise.  By the time rader was aware of the invasion, I would most likely be landing.  By the time he could shift bombers I would already be on the beach.  If I lose my ships, who cares?
 
But I would also orchestrate a massive deception toward Honshu, kinowing that rader would likely commit all his bombers there. The odds of encountering meaningful opposition in the DEI would be slight.
 
This game might go well into 1946.  Therefore, I need to have the option to act in the DEI if that becomes vital to my ultimate war effort.  It won't help that much in 1944, but by mid or late 1945, it could very much.
 
The islands I would be most interested in are those east of Java.  If rader truly had unlimited ground troops so that he had every outer island garrisoned, I might just roll the dice and sale right past them and head for something in the Celebes or Ambon or the like.  I might get squashed, but odds are even that I might sale right through undected, as long as I kept up pressure around Honshu.

[pws1225]

Just a newb here, GJ, but REALLY?

[Crackaces]

I would want to open a network of interlocking bases in the DEI - two or three or four islands that have airfields that can be built large. Taking and building these bases will allow me to threaten (or punish) every strategic resource in range. If that poses a threat to rader, he'll have to commit fighters. If it doesn't pose a threat, he won't, but then I won't have committed anything I can't afford to commit, so it's no loss to me anyway.

This is sooooo true .. I am a newbie and I can see the sage advice. I have started this strategy in the Gilberts Aug 42. One key I have found is that the CAP from one or more of the bases will help out .. even if a base / group fails its die roll ... I cannot project as well as the IJ, but I can bring more defense up than the IJ can project in offense due to the lack of IJ bases compared to USN interlocking bases....more planes are a comin' but they are broken up in groups that I find an equal fight ...

[GreyJoy]

Dan, i see your point which is defenetly reasonable. However, considering how the big CV battles work (they are a one-shot business) it won't matter much if i can master a CAP of 300 fighters over what's left of my CVs...KB air force is so big by now that his dive and torpedo bombers will get through for sure, thus annihilating what's left of my carrier fleet, good weather or bad weather that is; while those 300 fighters if used to provide more escort could really be decisive in inflicting a decisive blow. I see the risk of being screwed by bad weather, bad coordination, TF reaction or the dreaded 8 hexes strike...but it's now Rader that has to come to me if he wanna raid.
Say he can master a CAP of 1000 fighters...a well coordinated CAP of 1000 SAM and ZEROs...i think 600 escort and 400 bombers of mine will probably get through.
 
And if i manage to lure him into a battle in my own waters...i think i can, with a single kamikaze blow, get back the parity in terms of CVs...none for both of us!
 
About the DEI...I have to check what i have left in OZ and NG...i may have a couple of Divisions that could fit...gotta also check which ships are left in that theatre...won't be easy cause i'm completely off-balanced towards NOPAC...
 
@Alfred, good idea! but why you think it's better to go and look for him instead of waiting under my Aleutinas LBA umbrella for him to come to me?

[obvert]

@Alfred, good idea! but why you think it's better to go and look for him instead of waiting under my Aleutinas LBA umbrella for him to come to me?

You could do both. Wait with a giant fleet assembling he'll surely find. He'll think it's a trap, but won't know how you plan to use your CVs, and might take the risk anyway.

[Canoerebel]

It would just be bad karma, bad form, to kamikazee Allied carriers.  Even if it would work, which I highly doubt, it just would make the gods very angry.  Don't do it.  It aint your style.
 
There is gonna come a day when you'll be mighty glad to have retained your current core of carriers.  Nurture those babies until you have superiority once again (or until you have to commit them to defend your LOC - but you probably don't have to defend your LOC against a KB raid - who cares if your LOC is cut for a few days or even a few weeks?)

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: pws1225

Just a newb here, GJ, but REALLY?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It would just be bad karma, bad form, to kamikazee Allied carriers.  Even if it would work, which I highly doubt, it just would make the gods very angry.  Don't do it.  It aint your style.

There is gonna come a day when you'll be mighty glad to have retained your current core of carriers.  Nurture those babies until you have superiority once again (or until you have to commit them to defend your LOC - but you probably don't have to defend your LOC against a KB raid - who cares if your LOC is cut for a few days or even a few weeks?)

mmmmm.......damned wise Dan...you almost convinced me...ok, i promise i'll take this week end to think about it... however before everything else i need to put my CVs in a fighting shape back again...some are damaged, some are still sinking...need to take care of them first...

Well, i have reserves...true...but you my boys eat more than 500,000 supplies every 3 weeks...and on the beaches in Honshu it's even worse...have to keep rader at bay somehow...however i've already placed a good amount of LBA bombers in key islands in Aleutinas and Kuriles (and Seattle obviously)...they may not deliver a decisive blow but rader has to take some risks if he wants to get close to my LOCs

Ok, now that you made me become wiser, would we please think about Sadogashima again?!...the heroes' ground is waiting for some poets to sing the songs of those braves[:)]

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

... @Alfred, good idea! but why you think it's better to go and look for him instead of waiting under my Aleutinas LBA umbrella for him to come to me?

Because rader will never send the KB into waters which are dominated by Allied LBA. He might be prepared to come to your carriers if he knows there will be no Allied LBA present. Then however you have the problem of how do you communicate to him where your carriers can be found. Therefore the Aleutians is out of the question.

Basically the risk reward equation of rader going after your remaining carriers is not worth his while. You have to create a situation which he does not feel is a trap but one where he can smash you at no anticipated risk to himself.

My suggestion utilises your impatience to do something aggressive always, using your best remaining assets, to ally any fears that he might be walking into a trap. Absolutely no guarantee that he would fall for the bait and there is a significant possibility that you might end up lossing a lot of merchantment and fail to get your carriers into position to strike back, but I do believe it is your best chance at getting him to (a) use the KB and (b) position your remaining carriers in the best position to actually strike a significant blow.

Not that I think creating a "kamikaze" carrier fleet is a good idea, something which you could infer from my first sentence in my last post, but if you are determined to go down this path, either my idea or something else which is subtle is the only way of doing it. If you try to be direct, it won't work, you must ensnare him in a subtle trap to have any hope for success.

Alfred

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

... @Alfred, good idea! but why you think it's better to go and look for him instead of waiting under my Aleutinas LBA umbrella for him to come to me?

Because rader will never send the KB into waters which are dominated by Allied LBA. He might be prepared to come to your carriers if he knows there will be no Allied LBA present. Then however you have the problem of how do you communicate to him where your carriers can be found. Therefore the Aleutians is out of the question.

Basically the risk reward equation of rader going after your remaining carriers is not worth his while. You have to create a situation which he does not feel is a trap but one where he can smash you at no anticipated risk to himself.

My suggestion utilises your impatience to do something aggressive always, using your best remaining assets, to ally any fears that he might be walking into a trap. Absolutely no guarantee that he would fall for the bait and there is a significant possibility that you might end up lossing a lot of merchantment and fail to get your carriers into position to strike back, but I do believe it is your best chance at getting him to (a) use the KB and (b) position your remaining carriers in the best position to actually strike a significant blow.

Not that I think creating a "kamikaze" carrier fleet is a good idea, something which you could infer from my first sentence in my last post, but if you are determined to go down this path, either my idea or something else which is subtle is the only way of doing it. If you try to be direct, it won't work, you must ensnare him in a subtle trap to have any hope for success.

Alfred

your logic is always perfect Alfred. Thanks. But if it's so (meaning about Rader not looking for troubles into my waters) i can move safely my convoys along my LOC lines guarded by LBAs.

Ok guys, you have made up my mind. Kamikaze allied CVTFs isn't the way to go

However i may argue that the CVs, given the present strategical situation, aren't exactly my best asset. If i hadn't thrown them away stupidly, they would serve as a "fleet in being"...but considering that my goal, right or wrong that it'd be, is to breack his ground defences in Honshu, their operational use would be very limited nonetheless.

So, first let's put them back into an operative shape. Then think twice[:)]

Thanks guys

[vicberg]

I have to ask this?  You have 3 contested locations in Honshu within 3 hexes of LRCAP from Hakodate.  Your LRCAP can cover further invasions in these locales, as well your surface fleet.  Why not overstack or do whatever to capture one of those 3 spots.  Move your cap down.  Rinse, Repeat?  Inch down Honshu, since you are committed there?   Get one of those 3 and you can now invade 2-3 more hexes south.   

[Cribtop]

I join in the chorus opposed to kami USN CVs (Kill More Japs! And Yourselves!). But I have to admit it's such a crazy wild idea that it was fun to read about it, so I'm glad GJ considered it!

I think the point we're all making, GJ, is that kami CVs is an inferiority strategy, and your inferiority in this game is a passing event, not a permanent issue.

[MateDow]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Ok guys, you have made up my mind. Kamikaze allied CVTFs isn't the way to go

That is good news.

However i may argue that the CVs, given the present strategical situation, aren't exactly my best asset. If i hadn't thrown them away stupidly, they would serve as a "fleet in being"...but considering that my goal, right or wrong that it'd be, is to breack his ground defences in Honshu, their operational use would be very limited nonetheless.

As you pointed out, this is a battle of logistics. How do you supply your armies in the HI? One of the tools that you need to do this is your carrier fleet. If they aren't present, or don't exist, your task will be that much more difficult. On of the things that I have learned from reading though this is that Raeder will find a way to use his carriers against your LOC regardless of the presence of LBA. The threat of your carriers against his is staying some of his aggression (IMO).

Right now, your carriers are a fleet-in-being. Their sheer existence is controlling the course of his reactions. As others have pointed out, this is a temporary condition. Don't forget the lessons that you learned earlier in the war about the value of a limited number of carriers against a more capable force. Those people that were telling you to hoard your carriers and use them to keep Raeder honest are giving you similar advice now.

BTW, the time taken to read this from the beginning was definitely worth the time. Multiple times have I wanted to chime in with a comment as I was reading only to realize that it would pop up at the end of the discussion and make no sense whatsoever. Finally, I can comment where it might help, and where it will be understood.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Dan, i see your point which is defenetly reasonable. However, considering how the big CV battles work (they are a one-shot business) it won't matter much if i can master a CAP of 300 fighters over what's left of my CVs...KB air force is so big by now that his dive and torpedo bombers will get through for sure, thus annihilating what's left of my carrier fleet, good weather or bad weather that is; while those 300 fighters if used to provide more escort could really be decisive in inflicting a decisive blow. I see the risk of being screwed by bad weather, bad coordination, TF reaction or the dreaded 8 hexes strike...but it's now Rader that has to come to me if he wanna raid.
Say he can master a CAP of 1000 fighters...a well coordinated CAP of 1000 SAM and ZEROs...i think 600 escort and 400 bombers of mine will probably get through.

And if i manage to lure him into a battle in my own waters...i think i can, with a single kamikaze blow, get back the parity in terms of CVs...none for both of us!

About the DEI...I have to check what i have left in OZ and NG...i may have a couple of Divisions that could fit...gotta also check which ships are left in that theatre...won't be easy cause i'm completely off-balanced towards NOPAC...

@Alfred, good idea! but why you think it's better to go and look for him instead of waiting under my Aleutinas LBA umbrella for him to come to me?

Well, the only problem I see with your plan is that I just don't think you will sink all of his carriers in one shot. You will have the Russians in 10 months and that is big because it will open bases for you in Korea. Be conservative. Play it out. It might be fun to toy around with the flood of weapons you will eventually get.