ORIGINAL: Nanshin ron
As a lurking Finnish JFB, only just preparing for my first PBEM, i wanted to say im glad you took you perimeter and KB there.[:)] I also think this is the area where Japan should roam now..
I hope you find his AOs and TKs..[:D]
How are you planning to use your subs and surface raiders?
How does intel,(sigint,reports,recon) in this mod compare to the vanilla?
You say he is being passive in all fronts.
What intel do you have on him at this stage?
Any analysis?
Hey;
First off to everyone reading this who hasnt followed this AAR closely, we already have the CV Yorktown down as a confirmed kill with 2 torpedo hits by a submarine near Sydney, so any Allied counterattack is more likely than not to approach by land or be quick hit n runs/1-day invasions far from the Japanese navy.
Smeulders' convoy routes are very far. I know a month ago he used Adelaine and Melbourne as his AUS ports and routed all convoys around Tahiti or so. There is little chance to get there without getting detected and I'm not sure if it'd be worth of it. The latest KB operation was done 50% because I want to keep Smeulders thinking I have KB always divided and 50% to get some kills while making sure he wont try an early invasion or a raid in SO/CENPAC and force him keep his CVs away(they're probably at Seattle now; I know they arent at PH, LA, Perth/Geraldon or Sydney).
On surface raiders: I'm not going to do them before the fireworks begin again. These would be high risk/low price operations and I rather have all my CAs and CLs afloat than get a few xAK kills while losing them to submarines, CVs or convoy escorts.
For the Japanese, DBB has exactly same(=not much at all) sigint. AFAIK Allied SigInt is same as in stock game, too.
On what the Allies are going to do, I have a feeling there might be a long silent time until November-December 1942, with perhaps some small skirmishing and air war over Burma, plus my last offensive operations of course(I half expect them to be unopposed). First major counterattack is likely to be on Burma front, but at earliest only after the Monsoon.
obvert:
Cool to see these. Obviously you've done a lot of work clearing the PI and getting deep into Burma. Well done. Unless he's been reinforcing and supplying the remainder of the DEI I'm sure these will go quickly.
Actually the Allies made a fighting retreat in Burma even when they had good defensive ground and more troops. I'm sure I'd still be at Rangoon had Smeulders tried defending, but he didnt. That cost him Burma(and with Monsoon he cant take it back until at earliest late in the year) and let me use full force against Singapore that fell over half a month ahead of schedule. [:)]
These are the areas where I have questions.
1. Is that Wenchow? This is such good terrain for the defender, and as it makes its own supply, if the Chinese have a lot here the troops could be getting stronger the longer it's left. Any plans for it? Also, the extra HI is always good to have.
I looked back a few pages and skimmed but couldn't find notes about China.
Yeah, its Wenchow. Chinese have 2 base forces and a Corps there while I have a DIV and a Rgt sieging - I'm bombing it daily with a squad of Ki-48s and I expect it to fall within a month - AVs are alrwady equal.
We made China a "quiet" theater with action being mostly local on both sides. Neither one of us is a great fan of the theater and the ground war(something witpae engine isnt particularly good at) slugfest wasnt much fun. Both sides have been moving troops behind the front, though, and IJAAF continues bombing campaign against KMT troop concentrations in clear terrain.
2. As for Wake and the Gilberts, I know these are not as important as the Solomons and DEI for advances in 43. However, if the Allied player has them both, it could lead to a lot of LBA supporting a move right through Central Pacific. Unless these are really built up it might be good to snag them this summer.
3. The Aleutians. If you pick them up easy during the summer, throw a few engineers here, and wait through the winter, it could at least postpone movement toward the Kuriles in March 43.
It could also brig out some fight in the Allies if it looks like you're moving forward and trying for all of them.
Just a few thoughts. You most likely have a set of plans for the next months and know better the limitations of your logistics in this mod, so I'm not even sure if the later two are worth the effort with the long journeys and supply needs.
I'm going to grab and (lightly) hold the rest of the Gilberts, but for now I'll have to leave Wake and Aleutians. There arent enough troops to adequately garrison even the current holdings, and I really cant afford to keep KB, let alone multiple fleets, at seas too much. Plus, I have something else in mind and I need the KB there, after it has done its refits first.
I dont think Wake can support 4Es so its not a major threat, I actually hope it to entice the Allies to do some raiding near KB's home port, even touch n go invasions of Marcus(120AV forts 4), Iwo, Marianas or Marshalls.
