MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur
I would suggest to rail move Yeremenko out of Krasnodar into Siberia, put the GAR in the city.

If this happens, the port will fall into German hands. They'll have 2 hexes from which to attack Krasnodar, and they don't even have to . . . they can just start sliding units past it until they have 4 on the border of Turkey.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

First: I think I've captured a bug. According to RAW:

Minor country units can move and fight outside their home country.
However, you can only move a minor country land or aircraft unit
outside the home country controlled by the minor, if half or more of its
on map land and aircraft units are currently inside its home country

Iraq has got two units in total, and they are all in Persia. That isn't allowed (or am I missing something here). I also see a lot of Rumanians and Yugoslavs appearing in France. Half of those units have to stay in the home country. Are they there?

Second:
Don't you dare withdrawing from the Persian mountains. Also: don't even think of leaving the Caucasus and don't even think of letting the Germans align Turkey. That's defaitism. Any USSR soldier or commander thinking this, should be shot by the political Kommissar. I think you are getting my point here. At this moment, German forces are still away from the Turkish border, so start praying the turn end soon and next autumn will be full with rains, storms and blizzards. Also: it is still about 10 hexes for the closest nothern German unit towards the Turkish border. It might take the Germans a while to move those hexes...
And finally: there are an awful lot of Alpine hexides on the northern region of the Caucasus. You need about 6-8 units to defend the northern regions of the Caucasus on the European map. I don't know how the total view is of the unified map, but if you can get the ARM/MECH together with one extra HQ into that area, than, together with some reinforcements, you should be able to get a defense together into the mountains, forcing the Germans to attack at odds of 2-1 max, since he can't attack from a lot of hexes on most places. Sure, it will be a very tough fight and nobody will garantee if the USSR is going to survive, but he's got a fighting chance in the mountains.
There is no way the USSR can come back out of Asia, if he hasn't got the oilfields around Baku under his control. He needs this oil and with only one oil from Perm, it is over for the Soviet Union. Therefore: I keep repeating my question: are there convoy points in the Caspian Sea? They should have been put there at setup. Since you are silent, I assume there aren't convoy points in the Caspian Sea. That is a mistake (but it is understandable, since every new player doesn't realise the awesome power the Axis have and almost every new player thinks that putting the 3 USSR convoys in the Caspian is an idiotic move...).

Third: rail the Stalingrad factory out first. Keep retreating half of the army towards the Caucasus and half of the army towards the Kuybishev - Kazan - Kirov area. But slowly please. I would suggest to rail move Yeremenko out of Krasnodar into Siberia, put the GAR in the city. In Rostov everyone stays. All others will move away.
Rail lines between the south and north are going to be cut in two Axis impulses time (if the turn doesn't end or bad weather comes around in the next turn). This also means that probably one factory isn't going to be railed out in time towards Siberia (assuming the Germans aren't going to capture Grozni next impulse. Use the MIL around there as the speed bump to prevent this). This also means that the factory out of Krasnodar is probably going to end up in Baku.

The thing here is, that as soon the Germans have left the European map in numbers, partisans should be arriving in the USSR, cutting supply lines. The Germans need 30 garrison point to prevent this, and units in the ZOC of enemy units or on the Asian/Pacific map don't count...

Peter,

I agree with most of what you wrote here, especially about Persia and the northern edge of the Caucasus being easy to defend without that many units. And the Stalingrad factory has to move now: to Tiflis. I am thinking of giving up on the Gorki factory.

Only 2 of Gorki, Saratov, and Krasnodar can be saved if the turn goes on too long (from the Russian point of view). Both Saratov and Krasnodar can be railed into the Caucasus, which is where the excess resource/oil points are available. Sending the factories beyond the Urals is safer for the factories, but they may not find enough resources there to be productive. That is why I want as much oil as possible saved in the Urals this turn.

For the 1 rail move, I am thinking of sending the HQ in Rostov to a mountain hex with a rail line on the northern edge of the Caucasus. He will be able to provide supply to any units heading into the eastern edge of the northern Caucasus. He should be safe from attack there, and if not, he will be worth 10 defensive factors. If the Germans reach him this turn, the USSR will have a lot more to worry about.

I'll post the rest of my recommendations in a separate post.

[Red Prince]

It might soon be time to sail the Sevastapol fleet out into the Black Sea. Otherwise, the Germans can skirt the coast. It might also help with a little Shore Bombardment. Not much, but a little . . . 4 points in good weather.
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Other news: The CW attempted to dislodge the Italians from Cape St. Vincent, but both sides failed their search rolls. Also, the Americans failed at an unintercepted Strategic Bombing raid on Essen.
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Edit: The good news is that the CW will be getting resources to all of its factories, but it is going to lose out on 1 of the Food in Flames production points. Murmansk also is getting the Senegal resource, and there should be enough extra convoys to set up a route for 2 resources to get to Archangel next turn.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's the "dirty" shot of the front lines. The lines have come together so much that I don't really know where to break it up for a better view of North and South Fronts.

The Soviets have 18 units left on this front with mobility (15 Corps, 3 Divisions), totalling 97 factors.

That doesn't include Sevastopol or Leningrad, since none of those units can move. If you also eliminate Rostov, and the GARR near Krasnodar, that leaves you with 14 units (12 Corps, 2 Divisions), totaling 77 factors.
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On this front, the Germans still have a significant edge. One way or another, they are about to break through toward the Turkish border. If the Soviets try to defend too hard, then the Germans can romp through the North, collecting cities and factories, and eventually they'll meet up with the Japanese on the other side of the Urals. As long as they don't wait too long to take Leningrad, they can eventually conquer the Soviet Union if the Russians hide in the Caucasus.

Here are my recommendations for the Soviets this impulse.

No ground strikes.

The Stalingrad factory rails to Tiflis. Timoshenko rails to the mountain hex just west of Grozny.

The Para is air transported into Rostov and the ATR returns to base just west of Tiflis.

The Persian front line stays as it is.

The 5-1 Gar moves into Krasnodar. Yeremenko moves 2 hexes east.

Moving to the north, ...

The 4-3 Mil moves 3 hexes SE where he is joined by the 2-6 MECH.

The 6-4 Siberian moves east 1 hex and SE 3 hexes.

The 7-5 MECH and the 5-6 MECH move east 1 hex, and SE 3 hexes.

Koniev moves 3 hexes due east.

The 5-4 Siberian and his two friends move east 1 hex and SE 3 hexes.

The armor and MECH that start together move together into the hex the 4th GD MECH is holding.

The 4th Gd MECH moves east 2 hexes.

Everyone prays to their god of choice to end the turn. If the turn doesn't end, then everyone prays twice as hard that the turn doesn't end after the Axis moves - unless we are guaranteed that the Axis doesn't get to move first next turn (again[:@]).

[Centuur]

But to conquer the USSR, the Germans need to pull a lot of units out of the European map, thus lowering the garrison value in the USSR. If they pull let say 20 units out of the European map to go after the USSR army, they will get to see partisan activity from M/A onwards. Siberia isn't part of the USSR, when taking Partisans into account. Or has that been changed in MWIF?
What does the Max. number mean in this form?

Also, look at the number of USSR units still alive. I count at least 8 land units from Koniev to the north (withdraw towards the Urals) and 7 (not including Rostov) in the South (to withdraw to the Caucasus). If we assume the Germans will kill another two or three this turn (no hero cities again), the rest (including the HQ's) should be able to survive, because the Germans can't advance faster than the slowest USSR unit, and the Caucasus mountains are close by. There are a lot of hexes between the current USSR positions and the Kuybishev - Kazan line...
This than means that in S/O the Germans will have to fight in the Caucasian mountains and will be chasing the USSR units towards Siberia. Turns are going to be short again (hopefully starting next one) and if bad weather comes around, the USSR might still survive. That might mean another 12 units will be entering the battle before next spring. True: it doesn't look good, but I've seen the USSR coming out of the Caucasus and Siberia after two years of struggling against and stubborn fighting. I've never seen a USSR coming back out of Siberia, if they didn't at least control the Baku area with the oilfields there...

I didn't see the convoy in the picture. I'm sorry.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Just a reminder: If/when Italy liberates/aligns Persia, they'll have 2 units that can start screwing with the Soviets in the Kara-Kum Desert.

Are they going to get an Italian HQ to keep them in supply? Can they overcome the ferocious defense that a 2-2 Mil blocking a rail line can put up?

There are already 2 Italian HQs in the area. What 2-2 MIL? Blocking which rail line?
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I'm trying to figure out the best way to get you the information you seek . . . I haven't changed things since last turn yet, so I don't know for sure. Let me see if I can gather this info for you about factories, etc.

Supply is hopeless for the Axis moving NE out of Teheran.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Centuur
I would suggest to rail move Yeremenko out of Krasnodar into Siberia, put the GAR in the city.

If this happens, the port will fall into German hands. They'll have 2 hexes from which to attack Krasnodar, and they don't even have to . . . they can just start sliding units past it until they have 4 on the border of Turkey.

Yep. The 3 units in Crimea can do that, freeing up Sevastopol.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Centuur

First: I think I've captured a bug. According to RAW:

Minor country units can move and fight outside their home country.
However, you can only move a minor country land or aircraft unit
outside the home country controlled by the minor, if half or more of its
on map land and aircraft units are currently inside its home country

Iraq has got two units in total, and they are all in Persia. That isn't allowed (or am I missing something here). I also see a lot of Rumanians and Yugoslavs appearing in France. Half of those units have to stay in the home country. Are they there?

First things first:

Iraqi units: 1 in and 1 out means there are still half or more in the home country. That means the 2nd one can leave.

Rumanian units: this was part of the original test (see Post #1), which has Rumania aligned as a full Axis Ally. Under those conditions, Rumania no longer needs to keep any of its units in the home country.

Yugoslavian units: they have a lot of units; 3 are in Yugoslavia, 5 are outside the home country . . . see Iraqi units for the reason that can happen.

I see. Another thing we played wrong...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Centuur
I would suggest to rail move Yeremenko out of Krasnodar into Siberia, put the GAR in the city.

If this happens, the port will fall into German hands. They'll have 2 hexes from which to attack Krasnodar, and they don't even have to . . . they can just start sliding units past it until they have 4 on the border of Turkey.

Yep. The 3 units in Crimea can do that, freeing up Sevastopol.

Oh, but there is more on the way.
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Any preference as to where the IL-4 rebases? Stravropol region, I assume, within range of most of the remaining front . . . and/or the LND/ATR TB-3?

[Red Prince]

End of Turn Roll: 8 (20%)
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But there's a slim chance that if the turn keeps going things could get messy. The weather for impulse #9:

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince



If this happens, the port will fall into German hands. They'll have 2 hexes from which to attack Krasnodar, and they don't even have to . . . they can just start sliding units past it until they have 4 on the border of Turkey.

Yep. The 3 units in Crimea can do that, freeing up Sevastopol.

Oh, but there is more on the way.
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Any preference as to where the IL-4 rebases? Stravropol region, I assume, within range of most of the remaining front . . . and/or the LND/ATR TB-3?

Yes, just somewhere east.

[Centuur]

I would put the TB-3 in Batum. If the Germans can get him there this turn, it is over for the USSR...

[Red Prince]

It was an impulse of maneuver for Germany, with no attacks. Italy set up its attack on Teheran, though, and Japan invaded Oman:



And the results:

Attack on Teheran: Assault, Fractional Odds .751 (No), Roll = 10 = -/2S (attackers disorganized)
Attack on Oman [96, 85]: Assault, Roll = 8+1 = 9 = -/2S (attackers disorganized)

The Soviets used the LND in Baku in an attempt to prevent the Italians from liberating Persia. The 2 factors dropped the attack from a 4:1 down to a 2.67:1 Assault. It worked, taking 2 full odds levels off the attack, since the Fractional Odds Roll failed . . . but then the '10' came up for the Italians, and they took over the administration of Teheran.

Another high roll in Oman, and the Japanese have landed on the Arabian Peninsula. Makes me kind of wish I'd made some risky attacks with the Germans, what with all these high rolls coming around.
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I'm ready for dinner, but I'll post new images before I go to bed tonight. I haven't done my rebasing or reorganization yet, but I do want to mention that I figured out how to control both hexes beside Krasnodar without opening up a hex for Sevastapol to try to slip a unit out . . . by Air Transporting a MTN Division to the original hex the INF was in (after it moved SE into the port). [;)]

[Red Prince]

Okay, I had to finish things up before dinner. Germany rebased some air power toward the south, and Italy reorganized 3 units in Persia.

End of Turn Roll: 8 (30%)

The turn didn't end, but I have a little problem . . . 2 CW convoys finally fell to Japanese SUBs, cutting the link from Australia to Canada and the UK. That means 3 BP are going to be lost. I can repair it with convoys I have waiting for that eventuality, but it means I won't be able to boost the odds of the turn ending after the coming impulse from 40% to 50% . . . on the plus side, I can build the route so that it goes around that sea area.

[Red Prince]

Sorry I didn't get pictures up last night. I passed out after dinner and I've been asleep for the last 11 hours or so . . .

[Red Prince]

Okay, moving on:
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Since the CW and USA both had to put some more convoys out this impulse, the RN tried again to clear Cape St. Vincent of the Italian Fleet. They began with an Air-to-Air advantage and a Surface Combat factor advantage, but they just couldn't get the job done. The search rolls for the first round of combat were:

Allied Roll: 1, Axis: 2; all sections included except Axis FTRs

This looked pretty good, not great, but good. It didn't turn out that way. In addition to losing a CVL, a CVP-0 and its Pilot had no place to land and both were killed.
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With American forces now in England and Northern Ireland, and knowing this would be the last chance to clear out Cape St. Vincent before next turn (and praying for the first impulse next turn for an invasion of Portugal), the RN hoped to get lucky with the search rolls and be able to select a Surface Combat . . .

Both sides choose to Fight On; Allied Roll: 9, Axis: 3;
CW does not choose Naval Air Combat, but Italy does; all bombers cleared

No suck luck. They lost another CVL, a CVP-1 and its Pilot, and decided to abandon the effort . . . aborting to Liverpool. The one thing that makes this less of a disaster as you might thing, is that the CW still has 2 x Class-2 CVs that have not had any CVP available. That means the CVLs don't really need to be rebuilt; just the CVPs and Pilots do. Not much comfort, but it'll have to do.
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Below is the entire sequence:

[Red Prince]

The first image I'll post of the Soviet problem is the Siberian "Front", since it's the quickest one to take care of. There is no threat this turn, but the Japanese will advance at every opportunity from here on out, hoping to either take over more cities, factories, and resources . . . or at least to divert some troops from the German campaign.
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Edit: The next 3 screenshots are from the Ground Strike phase of the Allied impulse. Anything with a light green outline and indicator can be used for a Ground Strike.

[Red Prince]

The rest of the Soviet fronts are beginning to merge, so this is no longer strictly a "Persian Front", but is now the "Caspian Defense" in my mind:

[Red Prince]

And here is the "Continental Defense" for the USSR.

Since the Wallies needed to reset a convoy pipeline from Australia to Canada and the UK, the odds of the turn ending after this impulse are going to be 40% instead of the 50% that the Soviets hoped to have. If the turn doesn't end, the German impulse will have a 50% chance of ending the turn . . . and if that doesn't happen, Allied Impulse #12 can be pushed up to a 70% chance. For reference, J/A '40 lasted only until Impulse #11. The Allies still have a +1 on the Initiative track, and are likely to demand a re-roll if they fail to gain the initiative.

Now, for some of the troubles the Soviets face:
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The northern stack is dead meat, unable to move without becoming disorganized, unless Koniev moves to one of the 2 hexes west of Penza.

Also, the stack to the northwest of Stalingrad has to make that a hero city, I think . . . or somebody does. One of those Oil Points can be used for production there each turn, and as long as the city doesn't get cut off by ZOC, the rest can be used to reorganize units.

Krasnodar is going to need some support, or it isn't likely to last the turn. The attempt to use it as bait to free up a spot in Sevastapol failed when the Germans decided to Air Transport a MTN Division instead of moving the PARA. If the Russians want, they can try to kill him (and destroy the ATR and its Pilot, too) on a 3:1/4:1 +1 Blitz. They'd have to use either the ARM or MECH from the river bend east of Rostov, though. and the best they could get is 15:4 odds with the GARR, or 17:4 odds if they use both the ARM and the MECH. In the latter case, it would be 4:1 +1 with a 25% chance at 5:1 +1 . . . which, at 4:1 +1, has a 100% chance to dislodge or kill the defender, a 20% chance to lose one of those strong units, a 40% chance that they'll end up disorganized, and 60% chance that they can make a Breakthrough into Kerch. The Russians baited the Germans, so now the Germans are baiting the Russians -- using those 2 units means creating a very weak spot in the line near Rostov.

As for Rostov, unless one of the units moves out of the city soon, there will be no place to put the MIL if/when it is rebuilt at the end of the turn. Of the 10 MIL units destroyed this turn, only 4 can be rebuilt (assuming Stalingrad is held). Of course, moving a unit out of Rostov means weakening the defenses there, and there are a lot of Germans in the area. At some point those defenses will become too weak, and the Germans will try to take advantage of it. Placing a LND in the hex next to Rostov is also a form of bait . . . if the Soviets try to use the ART to bombard that hex, it's the same as a free Ground Strike by the Germans on Rostov.

I'm going to try to get as much Oil out of this region as possible at the end of the turn, sending it to the Urals, assuming the rail line up from Astrakhan is held. This might cut into Soviet Production, but I'm not certain of that. I still have to figure out what can can actually be shipped out.
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The USSR never allowed a belief in God within its borders. I think that Comrade Joe might want to start re-thinking that philosophy right about now. He's got to convince his troops to pray for a '4' or less on the End of Turn Roll.

[Red Prince]

In the above post, you can (hopefully) see that I tried to give the Germans maximum flexibility to respond to whatever the Soviets choose to do . . . if they try to stop the line at Rostov, Krasnodar is at risk, but if they try to go after the units around the Kerch Straits, it's going to open up a hole near Rostov. If a unit moves out of Rostov and the turn doesn't end, they aren't likely to hold onto the city. Or maybe they will. I don't know.

In the center, I've shifted units into positions that should let them close on whatever seems like a good opportunity, and attempted to divide the Soviet forces into a Northern Group and a Southern Group at the white line that indicates the change from the Arctic weather zone to the North Temperate weather zone. While there's only a 40% chance of Fine weather in the Arctic during S/O, the skies should be clear about 80% of the time in the more critical Caucasus region.
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Edit: I've also left a semi-gaping hole in the center as more bait. If the Russians feel lucky, they can re-take Voronezh . . . but they'll only hold it if the turn ends after this impulse.