Movement prediction vs actual

[Doctor Zaius]

I am somewhat confused about movement. When I left click to select a unit and mouse over to where I am thinking of moving the unit I get a movement path visible, complete with the movement cost for each hex on this projected path. The thing is at times if my movement path shows, for example, 3-3-3-2-2-2, for the hexes on my planned path (a total cost of 15), then I right-click to actually move the unit and find that the unit actually moves less than the predicted number of hexes.

I can figure that it actually cost me 3-4-3-2-2 (14 points) instead of the 3-3-3-2-2-2 (15 points) shown, leaving me one hex short of where I planned to be.

Is this a glitch? A rounding error? Is this just part of the fog of war? Or am I missing some factor that I can plan better for?

Thanks.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Doctor Zaius

I am somewhat confused about movement. When I left click to select a unit and mouse over to where I am thinking of moving the unit I get a movement path visible, complete with the movement cost for each hex on this projected path. The thing is at times if my movement path shows, for example, 3-3-3-2-2-2, for the hexes on my planned path (a total cost of 15), then I right-click to actually move the unit and find that the unit actually moves less than the predicted number of hexes.

I can figure that it actually cost me 3-4-3-2-2 (14 points) instead of the 3-3-3-2-2-2 (15 points) shown, leaving me one hex short of where I planned to be.

Is this a glitch? A rounding error? Is this just part of the fog of war? Or am I missing some factor that I can plan better for?

Two questions: Are you moving through enemy-owned territory? Also, are you using the "No Borders" game option? Either of those can account for what you're seeing.

If you have the "No Borders" option on, then hexes that initially showed as friendly-owned can turn out to be enemy-owned instead. The cost of converting those to friendly-owned will shorten the actual movement distance from the estimate.

Even without that, though, when moving through enemy-owned territory, the conversion cost is mitigated by the unit's recon level. The estimate is made with the unit's initial recon level. But, as the unit moves, it expends supply and readiness - lowering its recon level. This can eventually cause the actual conversion cost of some hexes to be higher than the estimate - again shortening the actual movement distance.

[Oberst_Klink]

A TOAW III Additional Movement Costs chart can be found here - tm.asp?m=1603132

Klink, Oberst

[Doctor Zaius]

Thank you both, Lemay, Klink, for your input. I've been trying today to get a better handle on this. I have "No Borders" on. The additional movement costs chart is informative, but I am still not able to piece it all together. It looks like I am struggling with movement costs related to: "Enemy-Controlled Terrain" and "Enemy Adjacent".

The first screen shot is the RTM Crossing the Border scenario (v 3.4.0.202) at the start of turn One. 18th Panzer, 27th Rgt is highlighted, and has an original movement allowance of 15 and a recon level of 98. The Panzer unit enters directly into Soviet territory Northwest of Brest and in between two fixed Soviet Arty units, and has a predicted movement cost of 3-3-3-2-2-2.


It turns out the second hex actually costs the Panzer 4 points, not the predicted 3. Continued...

[Doctor Zaius]

If I instead move the Panzer into the first hex (predicted cost = 3, actual cost = 3) THEN mouse over my desired path I get the following screen shot.

Note now the hex north of the fixed Arty unit is predicted as 4 instead of 3, which turns out to be the actual cost. Why is that?

Continued...

[Doctor Zaius]

Finally, if I first evaporate the Northwest-most fixed Arty unit with the adjacent 17th Panzer Div, 39th Rgt, I get the following screenshot.

Two questions:

1) The first entered hex now costs only 2 points instead of 3. It's still enemy-held and still adjacent to an enemy unit though. Is there an extra movement penalty for moving between enemy units?

2) The hex that fooled me the first time (that hex immediately North of the Arty unit outside Brest which predicted as 3, but cost 4) is now back to only 3 (predicted = actual = 3). Why the change from 4 to 3?

Yikes...confusing. Just trying to get a handle on all this so I can become a better micro manager!

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Doctor Zaius

Finally, if I first evaporate the Northwest-most fixed Arty unit with the adjacent 17th Panzer Div, 39th Rgt, I get the following screenshot.

Two questions:

1) The first entered hex now costs only 2 points instead of 3. It's still enemy-held and still adjacent to an enemy unit though. Is there an extra movement penalty for moving between enemy units?

Let's review the manual (section 11.9.3):

- Enemy Adjacent: 12.5% to 25% of the original Movement Allowance.
This depends on the unit’s Reconnaissance Capability.
This penalty is doubled if the unit is moving from one such location
to another. The cost is assessed upon leaving a hex adjacent
to the enemy, not upon entering it.

- Enemy-Controlled Terrain: Up to 10% of original Movement Allowance.
This depends on the unit’s Reconnaissance Capability.
This cost also applies throughout the entire Turn in which a location
first becomes friendly-controlled.

So, before, your unit was moving from an adjacent location to another. After the enemy unit was destroyed, it wasn't moving from such a location at all. It still had to pay the hex conversion cost, though.

2) The hex that fooled me the first time (that hex immediately North of the Arty unit outside Brest which predicted as 3, but cost 4) is now back to only 3 (predicted = actual = 3). Why the change from 4 to 3?

It's as I explained in my second paragraph: The unit's recon level mitigates the cost of hex conversion (and I should have said ZOC costs, as well). But, as the unit moves, it expends supply and readiness. That expenditure dynamically lowers the unit's recon level. It appears that if the unit expends three MPs in the first hex, it's recon level is too low to pay only one MP for the adjacent to adjacent penalty, but if the first hex only costs two MPs, it still has enough recon to do so. Hard to believe that expending just one MP could make that difference, but it's possible - you just got unlucky.

Now, you may ask why the estimate isn't sophisticated enough to include the recon adjustments in its estimates. I can only guess that it was either too complicated or wasn't thought of by old Norm. Plus, note that if the unit suffers a disengagement attack, that will radically affect its recon levels in an unpredictable manner. And, of course, fog-of-war may be hiding unseen enemy units that the friendly unit may try to pass - greatly changing the costs. So, trying to account for recon changes may have been considered a pointless task.

Note that it looks to me like you have No Borders turn OFF, not ON.

[r6kunz]

Greetings
Here is the latest version of Road to Moscow I Crossing the Border. (change the file name suffix from .txt to .sce).
The movement issue has been address by setting German Movement Bias to 110%. German RR units now are grouped together in one formation that start in Warsaw.
Let me know how this works.
Cheers
RAK

[Doctor Zaius]

Thanks for the new version, Kunz. I see you made several changes. I see the railroad repair probability has been upped dramatically . I see several other changes as well. Would you be willing to share your thoughts on some of these?

Still quite noobish; have been trying to learn this game using your RTM scenario. Guderian's auto biography, which I recently purchased, is giving me more appreciation to your masterpiece. Thanks again for your contribution.

[Doctor Zaius]

Thank you Lemay. I think I'm starting to catch on. I hope you'll allow me to resume this discussion in the future, as there is a new version of RTM and my example is thus modified by the new scenario somewhat.

Thanks again for the explanations.

[r6kunz]

Hi Doc
thank you for the feed back. All scenarios are probably works in progress. Re Guderian Panzer Leader,: I used has book and maps to follow the almost daily progress of his panzer group to test the scenarios. David Glantz is another source- his atlas' give almost daily copies of contemporary German operational sit maps.
Admittedly all have my design and play testing for RtM has been as German vs po, although a human Soviet player would find it a bit easy to hold the German advance (especially with the new defense bias, ignore losses etc- see Oberst's recent posts).
Let me know how things go for you.
cheers
Rob