MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

The Italian fighter wasn't even a distraction for these guys. I think he was trying to shoot them all at the same time. So, 11 factors of Ground Support got through, making this a 47:27 -1 Assault. Zhukov rolled a '9' for HQ Support, so he doesn't get the bones, making this a 3:2 -1 attack, with a 48% chance at 2:1 -1 . . .
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Edit: I'm thinking of making this a Blitz instead . . . see the next post.

[Red Prince]

These are the tables to choose from (I added the blue background to show the Fractional Odds Roll potential):

3:2 Blitz = 50% chance to lose the hex, 30% chance to kill Zhukov
2:1 Blits = 60% chance to lose the hex, 30% chance to kill Zhukov, 10% chance of a Breakthrough (Shattering Zhukov)

3:2 Assault = 40% chance to lose the hex & Zhukov
2:1 Assault = 50% chance to lose the hex & Zhukov

The Axis wouldn't be making this attack if they weren't willing to lose 2 units, so those percentages don't really matter. I think I have to go with the Blitz. This won't put the 7-3 INF OOS, even temporarily, if the hex is lost and Zhukov survives. If Zhukov dies, there are bigger problems than to worry about the 7-3 INF. Also, if Zhukov is forced to Retreat, he'll end up behind a river and still in supply.

[Red Prince]

Here it is, the one attack for the impulse, with a 40%-50% chance to kill of HQ-A Zhukov . . .



And the results:

Attack on Persia [70, 75]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .083 (Yes), Roll = 10-1 = 9 = */B (Not Converted, Breakthrough)

There it is. Another '10' on the die roll. This is actually fortunate for the Russians . . . sort of. A lesser roll might have killed him, and Germany doesn't want to have to fight him again, so they are not going to convert the result to a Retreat. That should give them a shot at getting at Turkey, but it also means they won't have a chance to get rid of him for good. That means he'll show up again next turn wherever he is needed most.
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This was a tough decision for Germany. The deciding factor was that if the Soviets want to bring in another HQ, it's going to weakin the Northern Front even more. One way or another, Germany is finally going to make its bid for Turkey.

This is definitely another lucky roll, and while you may not believe me, I swear to you I am not cheating. [X(]

[Red Prince]

Germany rebased a 2 FTRs and a LND to the northern mountain front lines, and HQ-I Badoglio reorganized the NAV that was used to try to hold back the American invasion of France.

[Red Prince]

Other things that happened this impulse:

Japan advanced in Siberia, Burma, and India, but not much in any of them. HQ-I Yamamoto railed out to the Sian region to help the troops there get back to the coastal cities of China, and Italy started sending troops toward the Kara-Kum desert, with HQ-I Balbo trailing behind them.
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The Allies caught a semi-lucky break with the weather roll. Only a roll of '9' or '10' gets Rain in the Med this turn, and that's where the fighting is right now. It only gets worse as you head toward the North, and much of the German army is now out of supply. Unfortunately, some key Russian troops are also out of supply. I'll get some pictures up soon, and then it's time for my dinner. Until then, here's what the weather looks like for impulse #3:

[Red Prince]

Here are the front lines in the North, closing in on the Urals.
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This image and the next can be pasted together to create one long image.

[Red Prince]

These are the units trailing behind that front line:

[Red Prince]

Here's an overview of the oil-rich battleground. I'll have to chop this up a bit to get it to fit the size limits for posting images, so please bare with me.

[Red Prince]

Starting in the South, here's what the broken border looks like now:

[Red Prince]

And the North border of this battleground:

[Red Prince]

Last, a glance at Siberia.
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Now it's time for dinner. With the bad weather, I may have to rethink what I plan to do with the CW and USA, though I don't think it will change things much. Both will probably be taking Combined Actions, so that the CW can continue its progress in East Africa, the Americans can try to expand to another hex in France, and the SUBs can set sail. At the same time, CW and USA transports need to ship a few more troops out to the Bay of Biscay.

Anyway, enjoy the action.

[composer99]

Can we get a screenshot of the Axis reaction to the Allied landings in France? I saw hint of it with the rebases. Or is it upthread?

[Shannon V. OKeets]

I have learned from this game that I will never play with the optional Railway Movement rule.

Using that rule, regardless of the weather, HQ's can move down rail lines in clear terrain just as if the weather were fine. The Inf HQ's can even do that through forest hexes. The net result is that the weather has very little effect on the movement of HQ's. It is just as bad for all the other unit types. As long as you are not fighting in swamps, mountains, or jungle, the effect of weather on movement pretty much disappears. This is especially true on the European map because there are so many rail lines.

[Baelfiin]

is there any way to turn off the flags and the weather effect graphics?

[composer99]

Yes. You can turn both on or off as you desire.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Can we get a screenshot of the Axis reaction to the Allied landings in France? I saw hint of it with the rebases. Or is it upthread?

I was just checking in before going to bed for the night. I'll post a shot of that in the morning. The Axis managed to block off all but 1 adjacent hex without creating any terrific opportunities for more invasions . . . but they aren't quite strong enough to push the Americans out yet . . . image tomorrow morning. Good night, all.

[brian brian]

yep Railway Movement is a poor optional. the units are plenty fast as-is. I usually forget it is still part of the game, we haven't used it in so long.

Of course the Axis should build Factories. World in Flames is about the resource base of the world, and the Axis own or will soon own the great majority of it, outside of the Americas, though the Allies seem uninterested in that fact. They won't be coming back as in a normal game because two Allied Major Powers are out, so the Axis has nothing to spend their energies against except the remaining two Western powers. A game like this will stalemate in the central Pacific and the UK with neither side able to make much headway against the other's core areas, though the periphery will be up for grabs. The Axis' only chance to break that stalemate will be to increase their production via factory construction, though Germany will also need Offensive Chits to use them for Super Combined impulses, otherwise their large forces will be quite unwieldy. If the Axis invests in a serious blue-water Navy, they can probably cut off the factories in the UK from their remaining inputs. By 1943 they will be producing at over 100 BPs and their force pools will empty, but their production plateaus while the USA does not. The resources are finite however, and though the total oil on each side will be close to equal, the Axis will have plenty of surplus while the Allied navies will be using theirs hard. The only pity is that this game doesn't have the Atomic Research rules; in 1945 only the Axis navies will have to focus on their base defense against an A-Bomb every other turn or so.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

I have learned from this game that I will never play with the optional Railway Movement rule.

Using that rule, regardless of the weather, HQ's can move down rail lines in clear terrain just as if the weather were fine. The Inf HQ's can even do that through forest hexes. The net result is that the weather has very little effect on the movement of HQ's. It is just as bad for all the other unit types. As long as you are not fighting in swamps, mountains, or jungle, the effect of weather on movement pretty much disappears. This is especially true on the European map because there are so many rail lines.

Absolutely the worst possible rule in favor of the axis (and I include No ZOCs on Surprise in the list). I won't even play with it as the axis, as I'd like at least some challenge.

Edit: Not to mention you can Blitz advance into Forest hexes down a rail line and stay face-up.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

I have learned from this game that I will never play with the optional Railway Movement rule.

Using that rule, regardless of the weather, HQ's can move down rail lines in clear terrain just as if the weather were fine. The Inf HQ's can even do that through forest hexes. The net result is that the weather has very little effect on the movement of HQ's. It is just as bad for all the other unit types. As long as you are not fighting in swamps, mountains, or jungle, the effect of weather on movement pretty much disappears. This is especially true on the European map because there are so many rail lines.

Absolutely the worst possible rule in favor of the axis (and I include No ZOCs on Surprise in the list). I won't even play with it as the axis, as I'd like at least some challenge.

Edit: Not to mention you can Blitz advance into Forest hexes down a rail line and stay face-up.

This is probably true. I think this game has definitely shown how much of an advantage it can be. Just for the record, I am posting the Optionals that are in use for this game:



Steve has mentioned in the Monthly Reports that some of the optional rules (17, I think?) are not going to be in the initial release, but will be included as part of a patch at some later date. In order to run this test, I included every one of the other possible optional rules, with a few exceptions. I started this test game on November 1, 2011, and at that time the following rules still had serious bugs in them that would have made running a full 54-turn game very difficult:

• Construction engineers
• In the presence of the enemy
• Limited overseas supply
• Limited supply across straits
• Emergency HQ supply

Since that time, Steve has completely reworked the Supply routines, and I am almost certain that ITPOE is working correctly now, too. There are still a few bugs with Construction engineers.

There are 2 rules that are either/or rules: 2D10 Land CRT and Blitz bonus. Since I wanted to run this as a 1D10 CRT game, I included the Blitz bonus, which can't be used with the 2D10 CRT.

There are also 2 rules that I actively chose not to use: HQ movement, and Variable reorganization costs. The reason I didn't include HQ movement is that I always forget I have it ON, and that leads me to start thinking there are bugs in the game -- when there aren't. It gets annoying when that happens, so I left it out.

The reason I left out Variable reorganization costs is similar, but not related to seeing false bugs. It makes planning much more complex, trying to remember which units get doubled and which do not. If I was only playing a single major power, or possibly even just one side, I might use this rule. But trying to create long-term strategic plans and short-term tactical plans for as many as 9 major powers in this game, I decided it would be a lot easier if I could just use the simple "1 reorg point per unit" rules when planning out what to reorganize each impulse. Of course, this is still based on Action choice, but that's easy to remember.

Fore example: there are currently 111 air units on the map, 47 more in the various Reserve Pools, and 20 more on the Production Spiral. That's a total of 178 air units, and trying to remember which ones take 2 turns to build, and which ones take 3 turns was just not something I wanted to have to do while I was setting up multi-impulse plans for so many major powers at once.

Anyway, I just wanted to explain the reasons behind the Optional Rules choices I made. I, too, would have enjoyed seeing V-Weapons and Atomic Bombs in the game, but that is unfortunately not to be. Perhaps this collection of optionls favors the Axis -- it certainly looks that way to me.
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Okay, enough of that. Last night, I promised to show the Axis response to the American invasion, so that's next up on my list of things to do this morning . . .

[Red Prince]

This post took longer to create than I expected. I had a lot that I wanted to explain about the situation, rather than just posting a simple image. So, first the image, then the explanation:



In response to the American invasion near Bordeaux, the Axis tried to close off opportunities to advance or to expand the beachhead. The Soviet PARA was the only unit that was disorganized by the Ground Strike on Rostov, but that freed up the units holding Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, and Constanta so that they could be railed to the Western Front to replace units that needed to shift positions:

The 3-1 GARR from Dnepropetrovsk railed to Antwerp, allowing the Kiel MIL to move to Calais, which allowed the Italian INF and ART to take up positions in Rouen. That move freed up the Milan MIL to move south with the Venice MIL in support of their Yugoslavian allies.

The 5-1 GARR from Odessa railed to Brest, freeing up the Rumainian 4-3 INF to move east. It now has has Cherbourg in its ZOC, which is where the Rumanian CAV was hiding out before the Americans landed.

The 2-2 MIL from Constanta railed to the hex west of Santander, where HQ-I Badoglia was providing supply to German troops in the region. He had to move east to keep Bayonne in ZOC and to maintain supply to the German 5-4 INF that shifted out of Spain to garrison Bordeaux.

Additionally, the Germans sent the new MTN unit toward the Americans, and also started moving the 8-3 INF and 1-3 SS INF Division to the southwest from Kiel (they were originally intended for the Danish Front).
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Tangent:
HQ-A Manstein and his 21-factor, 5-movement point stack reinforced Konigsberg at the start of the turn with the intention of moving up toward Leningrad. His plans didn't change. Germany is probably going to build an O-chit at the end of this turn, and that will arrive in M/A '42.

For comparison: Last year, from the start of S/O '40 to the end of J/F '41, there were only 9 Axis impulses (and 8 Allied). The year before that, there were 10 Axis impulses during the same stretch (9 for the Allies).

Regardless of the weather, Manstein needs to be up near Leningrad by the time the O-chit arrives. With a little luck, he might be able to make the attack when it is snowing. He can double the combat factors of 10 units. Then he can reorganize them all and let them try a 2nd attack if it is needed.
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Back to Business:
The Italian 4-1 GARR in La Rochelle railed in from Casablanca. With another fresh North African TERR added as a reinforcement (Algierian placed in Oran), another unit was available to create ZOCs in Morocco, and the GARR was free to relieve the Yugoslavian 2-4 CAV, which began the impulse OOS. HQ-I Prince Paul moved out of the forest to bring the CAV back into supply. The CAV then joined the vulnerable HQ to supply a combat loss if push came to shove. It could have blocked off the American advance, but that left Prince Paul in a very dangerous position, facing a 4:1 attack by the Americans (before Ground Support).

All of these moves were made with a prayer that Fine weather would hold out in the North Temperate zone (60% chance of clear skies).
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The Wallies can take advantage of this situation. If both the CW and USA take Combined Actions this impulse, the American MAR and INF Division can move 1 hex northeast. Then, an 8-5 white-print MOT (USA) and a 2-3 INF Division (CW) can debark into the invasion hex with MacArthur. That would make 22 factors of Allied units in France -- not easy to get rid of, and a force strong enough to make an attack or two!

If I had attempted the invasion last turn, the reinforcements could not have come. The Germans would have placed HQ-A Manstein on the French border, and the Americans would be forced to pull out. It might have bought 2 impulses for the defenders of Leningrad, but now the Wallies might actually be able to stay in France for a while. (Note: I played the German reinforcements as if they didn't recognize the full invasion threat).

None of this will hold up other plans, either. The New York MIL will still make it to Murmansk, and a few more reinforcements can still be delivered from the USA to the UK or N. Ireland. Also, the SUB attack on the Japanese convoys can still happen . . . with the added bonus of Stormy weather in the S. China Sea preventing any NAV interference. Of course, the American SUB fleet can probably only reach the 2 Box in a Combined Action (1 SUB could get to the 3 Box, but there might not be enough Naval Moves available), but a few lucky rolls should do the trick.
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So, the question now is: How will the Axis respond to a sustained invasion of France?

And the answer is: That all depends on what happens on the Turkish border. Until next turn, a lack of land units and sealift limits how many reinforcements the Wallies can send to France. If Germany can align the Turks before the turn ends, the Soviet Union will probably collapse quickly. A lot of good German troops can be railed back from Persia in time to stop the Wallies before they get too deep into France. If it looks like the Germans can't align the Turks until next turn, then the forces will have to come from somewhere else. That probably means either Rommel or Rundstedt will have to leave the front lines and take some of the heavy armor with them (which is why HQ-I von Leeb was so important).

Either way, the decision can't be put off for too long. Italy has no defenders at the moment. The reason for this, of course, is the extremely rapid expansion of the Axis empires. "Aggressive" hardly describes the Axis play so far. One thing that factored into the decision to leave Italy barren is the Wallies' failure to build ATR units and PARA Corps (or Divisions) so far (entered into my notes: Wallies need Air Transport!). However, with a force capable of inflicting casualties in France, and with a lot of sealift on the horizon (USA has 2 x AMPH and 2 x TRS arriving next turn), Italy can't be left alone, and the Germans need to counter-attack ASAP.
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Semi-Tangent:
One of the reasons I decided to use the Rumanian and Yugoslavian forces to garrison France was the fact that if losses are taken, they come back where they can be used as Garrison troops -- replacing the units that needed to return to replace them on the Western Front. This is more true for the Rumanians than it is for Yugoslavian troops, but it does apply to both to some extent.