Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 176; Oct 26, 1944..............mud

Mud comes in for the German turn, but not before the Soviets have one more surprise - a massed armored assault against 16th Army just sout of Lake Ilmen. Not prepared for an attack here, and the Soviets push through two echelons of fortifications - but mud will stop that attack in its tracks.

Elsewhere along the front, we hold. The Soviets must be exhausted as we're holding back most attacks. Now that mud has arrived, we can pull some panzers out of the line and refit.

Once the winter freezes over the rivers, especially the Dneipr, I expect the Soviet Steamroller to continue its march west - but, we've staved off a major crisis point by HOLDING the "Eastern Rampart" along the Dneipr for the Summer of '44.

[IdahoNYer]

The rest of the front remains much the same - and most of it (except for lots of partisan activity) remains quiet. 17th Army, still reinforced with the XXXXVI PzKps from 1st Pz Armee, continues to hold off massed Rifle Corps attacks. Soviets have been quiet along the majority of the Dniepr, likely waiting for the freeze.

[veji1]

Well done. Now it is all about timing of your retreats, trying to avoid encirclements and destruction that should be an option to buy some time if the game worked as it should but aren't because the respawns would then suck up all replacements.

A seen in other AARs, the major danger is to be surprised in the south by the strength of the soviet offensive and having massive surrounded losses that could then lead to a non-slowable bulldozer running through the Ukraine. Behind the Dnepr the next best terrain are the Carpathians, would a fairly quick retreat with still strong forces to the mountains be an appealling option, rather than staying in the plain for 3/4 more turns but then having shells to defend the mountains?

[Fishbed]

Kudos as usual, Idaho.

Your opponent must be preparing very well in the shadows. Don't you wanna occupy the first line of forts that he left unattended?
I especially fear a pincer movement around Dnepropetrovsk or a big breakthrough between it and Kirovgrad against the Hungarians, that would allow him to backstab the whole southern Dnepr perimeter, but well I guess everyone can see that coming... Good luck in your struggle! [&o]

[veji1]

Holding fast at the Dnepr line means an almost automatic sacrifice of 3 to 6 divs in the Dnepopetrovsk corner where they will get ZOC-locked by a red offensive. I supose this is already anticipated and either accepted as an unavoidable cost (meaning that IdahoNY won't spend good troops to try to help doomed troopers) or it means that this defense needs to be modified to funnel if at all possible the reds to the corner. This is an area where extensive use of Panzers on Reserve mode might have a significant impact.

It seems to me that all the effort to fortify the southern Dnepr is useless as the soviets won't just assault it frontaly but rather end up flanking it from the north east. I would have thought that the Ingulets and Ingul rivers were more natural backup lines once the Dnepropetrovsk corner has been forced.

This whole sector is by far the most dangerous, specially if the Sovs make good use of Cavalry and mech units to Zoclock the axis in winter weather turns where axis movement will be slowed down. very tough to mount anyform of effective defense down there. All you have to do is see Tarhunnas and Peltons' AARs to see how quickly it can all unravel there.

To what extent are you going to try holding it or just bugging the hell out of that "coffin corner" once the rivers freeze?

Good luck anyhow, I'll keep on watching.

[IdahoNYer]

Vej and Fishbed -

You're right, the terrain south of the Dneipr can become a trap if I'm not careful. I plan to hold onto my Dneipr fort lines, even with the Dneipr freezing in winter - for as long as I can. I figure he'll take at least 2 weeks to really penetrate a level 3/4 fort line - might be optimistic, but the troops holding the line are in pretty good shape since they haven't been under much pressure the last two months.

Before he makes a breach, I hope to be pulling back west. But the harder question is where - not much at all till the Carpathians - and that's a LONG way west. With luck I can delay west without being excessively engaged. What I don't have now is really something worthwhile to fall back too - I'll need to fix that and start establishing a fort line somewhere in the west - I'm just loathe to look that far west right now. But, I do know its coming...just in denial.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 181; Nov 30, 1944........snow

Here's the view of the entire "Eastern Rampart" front line. Been quiet for the last few weeks. Soviets must have been tired, and now their prepping for the freeze to negate the rivers and swamps.

Overall, very satisfied to still be holding along the Dneipr lines - the fortifications started in 1942 were either level 3 or 4s by the time the Soviets encountered them, and behind the Dneipr, that was enough to hold him back.

The question is "now what?" Run or try and hold....?

I'm holding until I can't hold any more. Not sure where he is planning on his main effort - most likely is probably to cross the Dniepr just south of Kiev and drive SW toward Rumania, forcing me to abandon the lower Dneipr (and the forts) without a fight. Not much to defend behind either if he does this. Most dangerous though would be a thrust somewhere north of the Pripet, through Minsk and toward Warsaw-Konigsberg. While he will have some woods to push through, this offers him the most direct route to Germany - and then I have a much elongated front if I don't want to abandon the Ukraine.

While I think I can initially make his penetration painfull for him, he will push through. No question.

[IdahoNYer]

Here's the current order of battle. His tank strength is rapidly growing, but the manpower difference isn't too bad.
He might even begin to worry about heavy losses at this point in the war!

[IdahoNYer]

Losses. Air losses are 9533 Ger vs. 54,188 Sov. Luftwaffe keeps killing the Red Falcons with excellent loss ratios.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 183; Dec 14, 1944.....Snow and Blizzard

The long awaited Soviet Winter offensive finally begins in earnest. AGN receives the brunt and is where the Soviets achieve some success. While 18th Army continues to parry the Soviet attacks against heavily fortified positions, ground is lost, and we are reaching the breaking point, but no breakthrough is achieved. Finnish forces have withdrawn from 18th Army, and have taken over the responsibility for the defense of Leningrad, bolstered by two German divisions.
16th Army takes the brunt of the Soviet thrust - a massed armored assault just north of 9th Army tears a 30 mile hole in 16th Army lines - but the rough terrain slows the Soviet attack, and 16th Army will pull back to its secondary defensive line. 9th Army holds forward, jutting east into the Soviet positions - hopefully shifting the Soviet attack from due west to more southerly direction - buying some time.

This is the most dangerous area for a Soviet breakthrough - there really isn't much to fall back on once the Soviets penetrate this secondary line. If successful, a Soviet attack here will force AGN to fall back all the way toward Riga. But, the Soviets are a long way from being successful just yet.

[IdahoNYer]

East of Minsk, the Soviets gain their first bridgeheads across the Dniepr. Against heavy opposition, both 2nd Army and 4th Army are forced to yield a 10 mile bridgehead each. Not much, but its the start of clawing the Germans away from the Dniepr Line. We'll push forces up to seal off the bridgeheads, but there will be no counterattacks - German panzers are still tied down holding the Land Bridge and the lower Dniepr .

So far, I think the Soviets will take the rest of the month to push out a solid bridgehead in these two areas. Will hold on to the Dniepr fortifications as long as possible, then when that is no longer feasible, we'll pull back to the Berenzina Line.

After that - the next stop is Warsaw...

[IdahoNYer]

Along the lower Dniepr, the Soviets are held off. Four massed Rifle Corps attacks are beaten back by the Hungarians (reinforced by the LVI PzKps) and 1st Pz Armee (still short XXXXVI PzKps - supporting 17th Army).

No other activity is good news. I expected more attacks closer to Kiev as well as pressure against 17th Army. Still think that will come, but so far, it has stayed quiet. Not quiet enough to pull out panzers to send elsewhere however....

Like other areas of the Eastern Rampart, we'll hold the fortification line as long as possible.

[janh]

ORIGINAL: IdahoNYer
Here's the current order of battle. His tank strength is rapidly growing, but the manpower difference isn't too bad.
He might even begin to worry about heavy losses at this point in the war!

You have a pretty huge number of tanks in your formations! Can you give a rough breakdown of the types? Does somebody know an estimate for what the Germans did field at this point?

Also, how do you conduct the air war? The kill-ratios are excellent -- due to the earlier versions, or just the way you employ the Luftwaffe?

[IdahoNYer]

Janh -

Germans have plenty of panthers in our game - too many Panther Ds were produced (corrected in a patch). So most panzer divisions have a full completment of Panthers - either the A, D, or G types. PzIVhs and js are also plentiful. Got a handful of PzIIIm long barrels around in one or two divisions. I've had a surplus in the pool through late '44 - its just starting to run dry now.

Keeping the panzers in a counter attack roll since early 43 has helped keep numbers high too.

As for the air war, I have no idea why the loss ratio is so favorable. I really don't mess with the air units much - just make sure they have planes. Most fighter units are very good experience and morale (80s and 90s).

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 184; Dec 21, 1944.....blizzard

Soviet Winter Offensive gains some momentum. Without rivers or swamp terrain benifits, the German fortifications don't tip the edge enough in their favor, and the Soviet Hordes make progress all along the front - the great Eastern Rampart, started in 1942, is finally springing leaks. It has served the Fatherland well.....

AGN is now facing heavy assaults in both 16th and 18th Army areas - Soviet attacks westward against 18th Army are stretching the infantry to the breaking point. The Soviet attack here is pushing a wedge right in the middle of the army. The two Korps on the southern side still cling to good fortifications towards Novgorod. To the north, the last good fortifications are held - nothing is behind them, to the Luga River. The "Luga Line" is nowhere near as extensive as the Volkov line was, and with the freeze, will likely not slow the Soviets much. However, it is the next major pullback line.

Hopefully, when we pull back, the Soviets will switch his effort to clearing Leningrad, now held by the Finns (and 1 Ger Div, plus some security forces). With no panzer reserves, except the lone Pz Bde, 18th Army has little chance of effective counter attack if the Soviets break through. Its probably time to pull back, and get into position in the Luga line - hoping to refit for a week or two before the Soviets can catch up.

[IdahoNYer]

With 16th and 9th Army's pulling back toward the final line of Eastern Rampart fortifications last turn, the Soviets did not break through, just advanced to contact. Now in contact, 16th Army has little choice but defend. 9th Army still can fall back a bit. With the heavy Soviet tank concentrations here, we must hold the fort line as long as possible - there really isn't much of a backstop line in this area. 50-70 miles to the west, a line is "starting" to take shape, but it is far too little, too late.

The positive side is we are collapsing a salient, so we are gaining increased infantry density as we fall back - shortening the line.

[IdahoNYer]

Here in AGC's area the Soviet Steam Roller is gaining momentum and is most dangerous. Heavy attacks against the Land Bridge are held, but just to the south, the Soviets expand their bridgeheads across the Dniepr both north and south of Mogilev. To contain these attacks, elements of III SS PzKps will have to move south from the Land Bridge and assist. That will likely let the Soviets make progress on 4th Army's northern flank.

While we have put together a backstop line along the Berinzina, it's not going to hold the Soviets long. The panzers will be able to prevent a breakthrough, but we'll have to pull back to the Berinzina line soon. Again, in the freeze, the Berinzina isn't going to help.

He'll be in Minsk by the end of Jan if he pushes hard enough. Then its wide open to Warsaw.......not good.

But he's got to push hard, and I'm not sure this is his main effort yet. I think it is, but his offensive is widening across the entire front - and seems fairly balanced so far.

[IdahoNYer]

Here in the south, the Soviets cross the Dniepr where I really didn't expect him to push hard - at the eastern end, defended by 1st Pz Armee. He gains two of three bridgeheads, and since I didn't expect him to attack here, I am in no position to counterattack effectively. I'll have to bring XXXXVI PzKps back north from 17th Army quickly, but the chance to counterattack will be gone by then. That will also allow him to push 17th Army back, but if he pushes hard against 1st Pz Armee, it won't matter.

At least we'll have interior lines as we collapse the Dneipr line and fall back to the west - again, no real fall back position though. All open terrain, great for his tanks, bad for my infantry.

He'll take another couple of times to widen his bridgehead, then I'm going to have to begin to abandon the Dniepr line. The other challenge is that although both 4th Pz Armee and 6th Army contain very capable panzer forces, I'm reluctant to pull them off the Dniepr and give him more bridgeheads. Further, as the Soviet attack against 2nd and 4th Armies gain momentum, I'll have to pull a PzKps up north from the Ukraine.

If Hitler would just abandon that crazy idea of an offensive in Ardennes!!! Those panzers stuggling to reach Antwerp would be much better served counterattacking and crushing the Soviets back across the frozen Dniepr!!!! By the team he listens to reason, it will be too late!

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 185; Dec 28, 1944.......blizzard and snow

AGN's 18th Army pulls out of its once vaunted "Volkov Line" positions and falls back toward the "Luga Line". Soviets began battering against the Volkov Line, protecting Leningrad in Nov 1943. Losing the city of Pushkin signaled the need for a retreat west - 18th Army was no longer protecting Leningrad, it is officially a "Finnish Responsibility" now.

While I was hesitant to pull back from some lvl 4 and lvl 5 fortifications protecting the approaches to Novgorod, the Soviet thrust in the north - and the building threat against 16th Army on the southern end of Lake Ilmen, made these positions useless. Now is not the time to lose a corps or two.

The Luga Line will not hold long if the Soviets continue to push west - and this is dangerous if the Soviets can manage a mobile battle toward the Baltic States. Force preservation will be paramount as 18th Army delays, then pulls further west. The biggest question is whether the Soviets turn their attentions north against the Finns. While this would be a tough nut to crack, opening up Leningrad as a personnel center might drive Scar to batter down those lvl 4 and 5 fortifications.

[IdahoNYer]

In AGC's area, the Soviets continue to bull their way west against the 4th and 2nd Armies. While 4th Army has some powerful panzer formations in the III SS PzKps, and the Land Bridge area is well fortified, 2nd Army is in poor shape as it gets forced away from the Dniepr. To assist, IV SS PzKps (1xPz,1xPG) is moved up from south of Kiev. Its purpose isn't to counterattack, but to prevent the Soviets from breaching the Berezina Line before AGC falls back and occupies it.

As the Soviets push the Germans away from the Dniepr fortifications, both north and south of Mogilev, the clock is ticking toward a withdrawal west.