MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Here is an overview of the Turkish border lines. HQ-I Yeremenko is going to have to rail down to the hex southeast of the work Armenia. Nobody can reach the hex below that, but the Soviets can probably keep the Germans from getting 4 Corps on the Soviet-Turkish border this turn by using careful placement of the remaining units. They might not keep Baku, but they'll keep the Turks out of the war a little longer. Then again, they might keep Baku after all.

I'll have full images of these 2 fronts and the invasion of France in a little while.

[composer99]

I'm particularly interested to know if if the Rumanian CAV now flanking Rommel along the Loire is still by itself or not.

[composer99]

Is there any chance of a groundstrike against the German blitz stack in the forest north of Persia?

[Red Prince]

Starting off, I've got the North Border for you:

[Red Prince]

Next up, the South Border:

[Red Prince]

The looming attackers approaching Rostov:

[Red Prince]

The Far North:

[Red Prince]

And, finally, the landing in France:
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I could probably land HQ-I Clark and a MTN Division with the MOT, and another CW 6-4 INF with HQ-I MacArthur.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Is there any chance of a groundstrike against the German blitz stack in the forest north of Persia?

No. The Soviets are out of tactical factors, I'm afraid.

[composer99]

I suggest the Allies attack La Rochelle this impulse for a safe attack. HQ-I Clark, the 8-5 MOT and either a 2-factor div or a 1-factor div + ground support (especially if it can all be American) can get a 4:1+1 assault before shore bombardment (if they have any left).

If they are feeling lucky the Allies can instead attempt an attack on Rommel. The MOT would move to the hex with the Marines, Clark and the other reinforcements can debark in the empty hex, the marine div & the CW 2-3 inf div can trade places and hopefully there is sufficient ground support (1 factor) to make it a 3:1+1 (+2 for disorganized units, -1 for combat friction). If it worked it would probably be the strongest attack since it improves the Allies' defensive position, forces relocation of another HQ to deal with the problem, and the La Rochelle attack would be a gimme afterwards. Most importantly, Rommel's hex will never be weaker than it is now.

In either case the Sparviero would have to be chased away.

Alternatively, the Allies can get a 4:1-1 attack, using the 2-3 div, the 6-4 MAR and the 8-5 MOT, on the Rumanians. They could throw in ground support to give it a shot at an odds level increase or groundstrike to try to counter the combat friction penalty (or both for preference) and the Sparviero can't interfere. Also, it prevents reinforcement of Rommel's hex.

I think La Rochelle is the best because it is the safest attack, opens up a port, can be supported by shore bombardment (if available), can't be counter-attacked (what with Rommel & the MECH being disorganized) and opens up a third hex against Rommel (although he can still be reinforced).

Is there any chance of Allied MECH or ARM landing this turn in France? What about next turn?

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

I suggest the Allies attack La Rochelle this impulse for a safe attack. HQ-I Clark, the 8-5 MOT and either a 2-factor div or a 1-factor div + ground support (especially if it can all be American) can get a 4:1+1 assault before shore bombardment (if they have any left).

If they are feeling lucky the Allies can instead attempt an attack on Rommel. The MOT would move to the hex with the Marines, Clark and the other reinforcements can debark in the empty hex, the marine div & the CW 2-3 inf div can trade places and hopefully there is sufficient ground support (1 factor) to make it a 3:1+1 (+2 for disorganized units, -1 for combat friction). If it worked it would probably be the strongest attack since it improves the Allies' defensive position, forces relocation of another HQ to deal with the problem, and the La Rochelle attack would be a gimme afterwards. Most importantly, Rommel's hex will never be weaker than it is now.

In either case the Sparviero would have to be chased away.

Alternatively, the Allies can get a 4:1-1 attack, using the 2-3 div, the 6-4 MAR and the 8-5 MOT, on the Rumanians. They could throw in ground support to give it a shot at an odds level increase or groundstrike to try to counter the combat friction penalty (or both for preference) and the Sparviero can't interfere. Also, it prevents reinforcement of Rommel's hex.

I think La Rochelle is the best because it is the safest attack, opens up a port, can be supported by shore bombardment (if available), can't be counter-attacked (what with Rommel & the MECH being disorganized) and opens up a third hex against Rommel (although he can still be reinforced).

Is there any chance of Allied MECH or ARM landing this turn in France? What about next turn?

No Allied MECH or ARM landing in France for another turn or two. So far, all that the USA has are a few MECH Divisions that haven't reached the UK yet. The CW MECH is in India. There is satisfactory Shore Bombardment available, but Ground Support is in short supply. An attack on Rommel would not be a great idea, because he can call a Blitz and survive easily. Also, it can't use the Shore Bombardment.

All think more about it in the morning. I'm done for the day. It's probably going to have to be La Rochelle.

[composer99]

I agree La Rochelle is a safe bet, and would doubtless undertake that attack myself (I'm a cautious player), which is why I said so. [:)]

However, I still think an attack on Rommel is a decent move. Let me run through the numbers:
- 8-5 MOT moves to the hex with the MAR corps
- the mar div trades places with the 2-3 CW inf div
- HQ Clark, the 6-4 INF corp and the 1-factor mtn div (I'm assuming it's the US mtn div that becomes available in 1940) debark in the open hex on the coast

That gives us 2 hexes attacking with 13 and 16 factors respectively for a total of 29 factors. 1 factor ground support from somewhere gives us the 3:1 on the 10 factors in Rommel's hex. There's the other FTR3 and maybe a CVP or two that can intercept the Italian Sparviero if it tries to fly ground support and chase it away or shoot it down.

With 2 disorganized defending units you get +2 to the roll and -1 to the roll for the allied combat friction. That gives us the net 3:1 +1. So our die roll results range from 2 to 11 on the charts. I would try to use HQ support with Clark as well.

If the Allies take the hex, the other units in Clark's hex can advance. If the Allies are disorganized MacArthur can reorganize most of them (the three non-HQ corps and 1 division).

On an assault that gives us:
- 10% chance the Allies take 2 losses, which they can afford with 2 divisions
- 40% chance the Allies take 1 loss, which they can afford with 2 divisions
- 50% chance the Allies take no losses

- 80% chance the Allies are disorganized
- 20% chance the Allies remain organized

- 20% chance the Axis take no losses
- 40% chance the Axis take 1 loss (obviously, the art gun) (of which 10% result in Rommel being shattered)
- 40% chance the Axis take 2 losses (killing both units)

- 50% chance the Allies take the hex

On a blitz, we get:
- 30% chance the Allies take 1 loss
- 70% chance the Allies take 0 losses

- 60% chance the Allies are disorganized
- 40% chance the Allies remain organized

- 40% chance the Axis take no losses (of which they are retreated 20% of the time and shattered 10% of the time)
- 50% chance the Axis take 1 loss (the art gun) (of which Rommel is retreated 10% of the time and shattered 20% of the time)
- 10% chance the Axis take 2 losses

- 70% chance the Allies take the hex

IMO the better chances the Allies have to take the hex and remain organized make it worth it even if they don't kill Rommel.

Now that I've looked at the #s the Rommel attack looks better than I initially thought. Most importantly, the Allies have the cheap losses to take on the worst results.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

I agree La Rochelle is a safe bet, and would doubtless undertake that attack myself (I'm a cautious player), which is why I said so. [:)]

However, I still think an attack on Rommel is a decent move. Let me run through the numbers:
- 8-5 MOT moves to the hex with the MAR corps
- the mar div trades places with the 2-3 CW inf div
- HQ Clark, the 6-4 INF corp and the 1-factor mtn div (I'm assuming it's the US mtn div that becomes available in 1940) debark in the open hex on the coast

That gives us 2 hexes attacking with 13 and 16 factors respectively for a total of 29 factors. 1 factor ground support from somewhere gives us the 3:1 on the 10 factors in Rommel's hex. There's the other FTR3 and maybe a CVP or two that can intercept the Italian Sparviero if it tries to fly ground support and chase it away or shoot it down.

With 2 disorganized defending units you get +2 to the roll and -1 to the roll for the allied combat friction. That gives us the net 3:1 +1. So our die roll results range from 2 to 11 on the charts. I would try to use HQ support with Clark as well.

If the Allies take the hex, the other units in Clark's hex can advance. If the Allies are disorganized MacArthur can reorganize most of them (the three non-HQ corps and 1 division).

On an assault that gives us:
- 10% chance the Allies take 2 losses, which they can afford with 2 divisions
- 40% chance the Allies take 1 loss, which they can afford with 2 divisions
- 50% chance the Allies take no losses

- 80% chance the Allies are disorganized
- 20% chance the Allies remain organized

- 20% chance the Axis take no losses
- 40% chance the Axis take 1 loss (obviously, the art gun) (of which 10% result in Rommel being shattered)
- 40% chance the Axis take 2 losses (killing both units)

- 50% chance the Allies take the hex

On a blitz, we get:
- 30% chance the Allies take 1 loss
- 70% chance the Allies take 0 losses

- 60% chance the Allies are disorganized
- 40% chance the Allies remain organized

- 40% chance the Axis take no losses (of which they are retreated 20% of the time and shattered 10% of the time)
- 50% chance the Axis take 1 loss (the art gun) (of which Rommel is retreated 10% of the time and shattered 20% of the time)
- 10% chance the Axis take 2 losses

- 70% chance the Allies take the hex

IMO the better chances the Allies have to take the hex and remain organized make it worth it even if they don't kill Rommel.

Now that I've looked at the #s the Rommel attack looks better than I initially thought. Most importantly, the Allies have the cheap losses to take on the worst results.

You're right, it does look better than I expected. [&o]

The only problem I have with this, and it's just a semi-problem here, is that because of the limited sealift available to the USA, both the CW and the Americans will end up taking Combined Actions for most of the turn. This should really be the last impulse the Wallies actively play, but they haven't finished up everything the "need" to do this turn yet.

Specifically, HQ-A Wavell needs to get his troops to the border of Tanganyika before the good weather in the S. Monsoon zone vanishes and good weather in the N. Monsoon zone begins. If this doesn't happen, he could spend all of the winter turns getting to Tanganyika in the Rain, then spend all of the summer turns next year pushing through Tanganyika in the Rain again -- instead of taking advantage of clear weather in both. This could set things back in E. Africa by a full year. Similarly, the troops in India haven't had much chance to reposition for a better defense, and the limits on naval moves mean somone is going to lose some production, probably the CW, because additional convoy points have not had a chance to get into place.

I guess the question is whether the Wallies expect to be able to stay in France or not . . . if so, then these attacks should happen. If the goal is to pull Germans off the Russian front, then they shouldn't -- the more units the Wallies have in France, the more they need to evacuate over the next few turns once Germany has fully reinforced the area. That means more limitations placed on other theatres. With no Blitz units available for France in the next few turns, I don't think the Allies can sustain the attack.

As soon as Turkey enters the war, which probably won't happen later than J/F '42 (and most likely earlier), the Germans suddenlty have another 6 Blitz units (the Persian forces) that are no longer needed against the USSR and can rail straight to the Western Front to put a stop to the Allied incursion.
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Edit: However, since I want to get started for the day, I'll try to set up this attack on Rommel.

[Red Prince]

I'm sorry, but I've actually changed my mind. If only the Americans had more sealift available . . . [:(]

I count at least 10 Land Moves that the CW really should make now in order to be sure of holding on to India and moving up in North Africa. So they will take another Land Action. The Americans will take a Combined, using their last transport to pick up an ART and an AT from Bristol to debark into France. I know this is missing out on an opportunity, but I feel like I shouldn't hold up full-scale operations in other parts of the world for the sake of an attack that might be nothing more than a side show. If I thought this could buy the Soviets another year of survival, then I would do it -- trading a year in E. Africa for a year of Soviet activity -- but I don't.
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Edit: I should still be able to get a 3:1 or better attack on La Rochelle, I think. It means sacrificing the CW INF Division in an Axis attack next impulse, but it gains a port that can't be retaken this turn, and a total of 3 coastal hexes. It also lets me put another unit into Archangel, where Eisenhower can reorganize both the MIL and the TRS . . . which can then be used next impulse to get Clark into France.
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As a side-note: in Rostov, I intend to use the ART there to try a Bombardment/Ground Strike on the Blitz stack across the river. It's only a 1 in 5 chance to disorganize each 9-5 unit, but the Germans can put together close to a 2:1 +1 attack with those 2 units. Without even 1 of them, this would be reduced significantly. At 2:1 +1, the ART won't survive the attack 40% of the time, anyway, and there's a 30% chance all 3 units will be destroyed. If I can get it down to 1:1 +2, those probabilities are reduced to 30% and 20%, respectively.

[Red Prince]

So much for that Bombardment plan near Rostov. More high rolls, and the Germans are laughing maniacally . . .

[Red Prince]

Here is what I did with these units:

1. HQ-I Yeremenko railed to the mountain hex southeast of the "Armenia" label (see 2nd image)
2. 39th INF moves into the mountains 2 hexes southeast
3. HQ-I Timoshenko and the 13th MECH Division move to the mountains southwest of Grozny
4. The 4th GD MECH takes the place of the 2nd ARM northeast of Tiflis, getting disorganized
5. The 2nd ARM takes the place of the 9th INF
6. The 9th INF moves into the swamp northwest of Batum, getting disorganized

What this does:

The Germans can probably get an attack on the 4th Siberian INF that will kill it, and possibly leave the Germans organized. Even if they are disorganized, the swamp needs coverage for next turn; better to get the defender there now, before the turn ends, so that it can be organized for next turn. The reason I pulled the 39th INF back so far in the east is that his only "safe" position to the north is where he was, in the mountains west of Grozny. Although it would end up OOS, the German 6-6 MECH could still make a move around it into the hex southeast of Grozny, putting the 39th INF OOS, and in position to make a dash for the Turkish border. I could have left Timoshenko, the 39th INF and the 2-5 MECH in a single stack at Grozny, for a total of 13 factors, but if the next weather roll produces Rain or worse in the North Temperate zone (40% chances) all 3 units would end up OOS. That would prevent them from helping the rest of the line, if the help is needed. I'd rather have them in supply and able to assist wherever the help is needed. That means helping in the South, too (see below).

Starting with the 9th INF in the swamp, and moving clockwise, the defensive strength for each hex is (with die roll modifiers): 8 (+1 ), 10 (+1), 14, 14, 12 (+1), 14, 12

Now, for the South:

Here is what I did with these units:

1. (Repeat) HQ-I Yeremenko railed to the mountain hex southeast of the "Armenia" label
2. Kuybyshev MIL takes the place of the 1st CAV
3. 1st CAV moves to the hex west of Baku
4. 50th INF and Astrakhan MIL both move to the river bend 2 hexes west of Baku

What this does:

The only attack that the Axis can make that leads directly to either Baku or the Turkish border is on the stack in the river bend or on Yeremenko. The best they can get against Yeremenko is 18:12 (3:2 +1 Assault) from a single hexside, and the best they can get against the river bend is 15:9 (3:2 -1 Blitz, with a 33% chance at 2:1 -1 Blitz), from 2 hexsides. I could have railed the 2-5 Mech from Timoshenko to Yeremenko, but that would still have a 25% chance to end up with a 3:2 Assault, but with a +2 modifier. At best it would be a 1:1 +2, and that is the same thing as a 3:2 +1 Assault. The benefit is that it places a 2nd unit there to take the loss if only 1 unit is killed (40% chance), but it also leaves Timoshenko facing a potential 3:1 Assault in the North.

If the Germans try the attack on Yeremenko at 3:2 +1 odds, there's a 30% chance that one of the Corps will be killed in addition to the Division. They only have 4 full Corps in the South, and all of them are needed to activate Turkey. They'll want to wait another impulse before they try the attack.

The MIL in the mountains is a sacrifice. It holds up the push toward either goal by blocking HQ-A Guderian and the MECH stacked with him . . . for a single impulse, but it might be enough to hold on to Baku or to prevent the Turks from joining the war, or both -- until next turn. It is now Allied Impulse #7 (10% chance to end the turn), and the Germans probably won't attack Yeremenko during Axis Impulse #9 (30% chance to end the turn). For Allied Impulse #11, the chance to end the turn goes up to 50% to 70% (depending on how many of the Allies Pass). That means the earliest shot at killing Yeremenko and keeping all Corps alive would be Axis Impulse #12, and Turkey almost certainly remains neutral for the rest of the turn. (From the German perspective, this might convince me to suck in my gut and try the 3:2 +1 attack).

So, here's what the overall defense looks like:

[Red Prince]

I'm starting to get the sense that MWiF just likes offensive operations better than defensive operations. Once again, the defender lost out in a combat. This time it was Air-to-Air Combat over La Rochelle:

[Red Prince]

The attack on La Rochelle started out at 15:4 and could have ended up as an 18:6 (3:1 +1) attack. Instead, it has a 50% chance at 5:1 odds!

The attack for Allied Impulse #7:



And the results:

Attack on La Rochelle: Assault, Fractional Odds .279 (Yes), Roll = 1 = 2/1 (MAR and INF Division destroyed, attackers disorganized)

Well, gotta love those Americans, don't you? They sure screwed this one up very nicely, didn't they? And they also ruined my theory about the game loving offensive operations. It was looking so good, too, with the Fractional Odds Roll won for the 5:1 Assault.

So, here's how it plays out: the Americans lose 2 units, the INF Division and the Marine. The reason I chose the MAR over the MOT, even though it is more expensive, is that there are a lot of MOT in the USA Force Pools, and none of them are as good as this one. There are no MAR left in the Force Pools, so I know I can rebuild this one instantly. Now there is a choice to be made with the MOT. Do I have him take control of the port or do I leave him where he is? The reason I might consider leaving him there is that the CW fighter that flew as Ground Support returned to that hex. If the Axis gets 2 more impulses this turn, they can probably overrun it, costing the CW 5 Build Points.

In the end, I decided to take the port. With the Marine lost and the only chance to reinforce this area relying on the CW taking a Naval Action when it should probably Pass instead, that MOT needs the port for evacuation. Besides, HQ-I MacArthur can move into that hex if it seems necessary. That means the sacrifice of an American LND, but it is one I would probably scrap anyway, and the USA can afford the losses much more than the CW.

Alternatively, while it would again rely on a CW Combined Action when it should probably Pass, HQ-I Clark can land here with a CW INF, and I can move an American TRS loaded with a MOT Division and an ENG Division into La Rochelle. I don't really like this option, though. The Allies want winter to start ASAP.

[Red Prince]

Now that the Storms have settled into Rain in the Arctic, the TB-3 is finally able to reorganize the 2nd MECH near Kubyshev. Also, while it may seem like a waste of Oil, HQ-A Eisenhower and HQ-I Nimitz both reorganized some sealift. Although the USA expects to Pass for the rest of the turn, it doesn't hurt to be prepared. If something comes up that forces either the CW or USA to choose some other action, these transports can get back to more useful sea areas, and then return to base where there are more units to ship at the end of the turn.

[composer99]

The animist dice spirits are punishing your timidity. [;)]