MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Klydon]

I think a rethink of the longer term Allied strategic position/strategy is probably in order soon.

First, the time for "distraction landings" in Europe proper to help the Russians has pretty much passed. The Turks are coming into the war and the Germans are going to be headed back soon, which dooms any Allied invasion on the mainland during 1941/42 probably. All it does is fritter away Allied units while they are trying to build up and it delays a meaningful landing where the Allies are there to stay.

The Allies need to concentrate on keeping India at this point and establishing themselves in probably Morroco with an eye towards building up a base of operations to kick the Axis out of Africa and reopen Gibraltar. With that, the Allies also need to concentrate their fleet and deal with the Italians at Cape St Vincent. Once that force takes heavy losses, the Allies should have run of the European theater in the sea department from a surface perspective (subs still have to be dealt with).

The Russians are going to hold as long as they can in the Caucasus, but the area is doomed. The Russians also need to look at force preservation at some point in order to tie down as many German forces as possible over the long haul.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

The animist dice spirits are punishing your timidity. [;)]

[:D] Maybe so.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I think a rethink of the longer term Allied strategic position/strategy is probably in order soon.

First, the time for "distraction landings" in Europe proper to help the Russians has pretty much passed. The Turks are coming into the war and the Germans are going to be headed back soon, which dooms any Allied invasion on the mainland during 1941/42 probably. All it does is fritter away Allied units while they are trying to build up and it delays a meaningful landing where the Allies are there to stay.

The Allies need to concentrate on keeping India at this point and establishing themselves in probably Morroco with an eye towards building up a base of operations to kick the Axis out of Africa and reopen Gibraltar. With that, the Allies also need to concentrate their fleet and deal with the Italians at Cape St Vincent. Once that force takes heavy losses, the Allies should have run of the European theater in the sea department from a surface perspective (subs still have to be dealt with).

The Russians are going to hold as long as they can in the Caucasus, but the area is doomed. The Russians also need to look at force preservation at some point in order to tie down as many German forces as possible over the long haul.

For the moment, the Japanese are stalled in India, but there is an attack coming up in Burma that might allow some troops to push forward when the good weather comes.

The "distraction landings" time came and went before the Allies really had much chance to launch any, which is sad for them. I am all for a sustained buildup of forces, particularly air power. I hesitate to build up in the Spanish Sahara before kicking the Italians out of Cape St. Vincent (or at least before there is a good chance of it). I like the "beachheads" in Murmansk and Archangel. The Germans are going to need to clear these out, preferable before the USSR is conquered (if it is), or there are going to be a lot of US forces entering these ports and trying to liberate Russia. That means the Germans need to divert some forces here, making more landings in Western Europe possible.

This is the main reason I like the build-up in the UK and N. Ireland; it allows reinforcement of Karelia, while still offering the opportunity for invasions of Europe. It also avoids supply issues that might result from having to have a lot of forces in desert terrain. That may not be as big a problem as I think, but since the French and CW can't co-operate, getting those CVBs back for France will probably take a little fancy footwork when making attacks on N. African capitals.

Anyway, the Wallies need to build up the forces first.

[composer99]

IMO the Allies should for the time being:

(1) Establish beachheads in the mountains of northern Spain as these cannot be easily crushed by the Axis. If the Allies can secure a port and a few surrounding hexes they can use cheap infantry to stay ensconced indefinitely, while threatening to expand the beachhead if the Axis fails to bottle it up with sufficient force.

(2) Build up army & air forces in Spanish Sahara. The air forces should initially consist primarily of land-based air to fly to sea to support naval operations to deter or destroy the Italian navy and the Axis naval air forces. This will allow the armies and tactical air forces amassing in Spanish Sahara to march up with supply into Morocco.

(3) Continue the march up East Africa (leapfrogging ahead whenever possible) to establish a viable threat to Egypt requiring a response by the Germans. Additional reinforcements of first-line Allied units, while difficult, will be required.

Unless Rommel is destroyed or shattered this turn, between him and the MECH and any new air reinforcements (especially FTR2 and Stukas) the Germans send to France, the Allied beachhead there will eventually be crushed as it is now IMO effectively contained. Now that the Allies have La Rochelle they can at least look into evacuating more efficiently - although while they still have local air superiority they might be able to push south into Bordeaux/Bayonne where the Axis have to make a real effort to dig them out.

[Red Prince]

I have 6 Axis attacks planned for Impulse #9, and I almost decided to go for a 7th attack. Rostov is getting 7 factors of Ground Support, and the attack on the Siberian INF is getting 10 factors plus a 6-factor FTR escort (which the Soviets will not intercept). The values below include these numbers.

The 7th attack would have been on the American MOT in La Rochelle. It would be a 3:2 +1 attack, with 2 Rumanian MIL available to supply losses. The reason I decided against it is that I want to have at least a few land units in France available to pull out of enemy ZOC if there is another Axis impulse this turn. I don't want the French Partisan number getting too high. Right now it is at 16%, and that should drop after the Italian/Yugoslavian attack.
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Edit: And yes, I decided to risk a MECH Corps trying to get rid of HQ-I Yeremenko. I doubt the Turks can be brought into the game this turn anyway, so I'd rather not have him become organized again. Eventually the Germans will get them into the war.
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2nd Edit: I goofed. I forgot the Americans have an ART next to that CW INF Division, so they can double his factors, making this a 5:1 attack and not a 10:1 attack. That makes me extra happy I didn't add that 7th attack.

[Red Prince]

I think composer99 was right about the game punishing me for timid behavior. The reason? HQ-I von Leeb attempted to provide HQ Support for the Rostov attack, and the '1' on the roll gave it to him. Hopefully, that will waste a '1' that could have come up during combat. Yes, I know that's just a wild fantasy, since every die roll has the same chance to come out with any number, but we humans are emotional beings. [;)]

So, the attacks for Axis Impulse #9:



And the results:

Attack on Burma [93, 123]: Blitz, Roll = 1 = -/1 (TERR destroyed, attackers disorganized)
Attack on France [59, 26]: Assault, Roll = 6 = */2S
Attack on USSR [67, 73]: Assault, Roll = 10+1 = 11 = */2S
Attack on Persia [70 ,76]: Assault, Fractional Odds .792 (No), Roll = 10-1 = 9 = */2S
Attack on USSR [61, 67]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .581 (Yes), Roll = 7+1 = 8 = */2B
Attack on Rostov: Assault, Fractional Odds .982 (No), Roll = 5+2 = 7 = 1/2 (Soviet PARA and ART destroyed, German 6-4 INF destroyed, all units disorganized)

Burma should have been an easy attack, and the game decided to punish me for opening my big mouth again with another '1' on the die roll. Chittagong is now absolutely safe for the rest of the turn, I'd say. [:@]
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In France, the Commonwealth decided on an Assault, even though a Blitz might have let the INF Division survive, because they would love to encourage Partisan activity in France by disorganizing the attackers. The Assault CRT means a 50/50 chance for that to happen, and at a cost of a miniscule 2 BP. It didn't happen, but it was worth a shot. He would have died anyway, even on the Blitz CRT.
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Next up is probably the key attack of the impulse: HQ-I Yeremenko going up against the German armor. He has a 60% chance of death seeking him out, but he also has a 30% chance to kill off 2 of the German attackers . . . but he is apparently the biggest loser in the world, fighting with his eyes closed. [>:] Another '10' on a key attack, and he didn't even take the stinking Tank Destroyer with him to the grave! The best that can be said for him is that he disorganized the enemy, but that was inevitable. With all 3 units moving in to occupy the mountain hex, there is now no way for the Russians to keep the Turks out of the war.
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The next attack, in Persia, will determine whether or not the Germans can activate Turkey this turn (assuming it lasts long enough). Only a roll of '9' or '10' will keep the Germans organized at 4:1 -1, and anything above a '7' does the job at 5:1 -1 . . . and without the Fractional Odds Roll, the Germans still did it, with another '10' on the attack roll. I think the Russians are failing their morale checks at this point. They know the end is near.
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The Siberian INF was fighting at 4:1 +1 odds in name only. With a 90% chance to upgrade to 5:1 +1, the Germans have a good chance to kill him off. In this case, though, the Blitz CRT is the choice. If he is Retreated, he will help one of the neighboring hexes with 10 factors. If he is Shattered, he gets to come back wherever he is needed. If he is killed, well, that's what would have happened on the Assault CRT, so what does it matter? The next German attack can really only come from a single hex, so they'll have a hard time with it even if they remain organized. Besides, the turn could end soon . . . but in the end, it didn't matter which table was used. The Siberian was killed, and the Germans get to continue fighting, with 18 factors moving into the hex.
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The final attack of the impulse is Rostov. There was only one choice here, the Assault CRT, since any Shatter, Blitz, or Retreat means death for all of the defenders. This started as a 2:1 +2 attack, moved up to 3:1 +2 as a result of the HQ Support roll, and had a 3.6% chance to move up again to 4:1 +2 odds. I mention this because the Germans are having fun, indeed, with the help of their mandate from Bog on High, and I wouldn't bet against them today. So, there is a 50% chance to take Rostov out of the picture . . . and the Germans fell just short of the mark. Small victory for the USSR. Tiny, in fact. I know that the PARA and ART are more costly than the Siberian, but the Germans could actually mount another attack this turn, so the strongest unit has to survive.

I'd say this is a TKO by the Germans, though.

[Red Prince]

To end the impulse, Germany rebased 3 FTRs into France, Italy sent its Lend-Lease bomber from Denmark to France, and Japan sent 2 long range fighters from Canton to the Andaman Islands.

The turn didn't end, and the weather looks terrific for Allied Impulse #11:



So, here is a question for you: Should the USSR choose a Pass Action?

End of Turn Chance: 50%
If all but one Pass: 60%
If all Pass: 70%

If the turn doesn't end, the Axis impulse will have a 60% chance of ending the turn, giving them a shot at a double move. Also, with the Fine weather, both the Germans and the Japanese can advance in the Arctic, plus the Italians can cut the Trans-Caspian Railway. Germany decided to risk disorganizing a MECH to capture Astrakhan this past impulse, and they'll be able to activate Turkey in 2 more impulses. If the Italians reach the port of Krasnovodsk (and they can), they'll have a supply link through the Kara-Kum desert that doesn't need to go through the Arabian Sea. That leaves them in position to capture Samarkand and Tashkent in only a handful of impulses -- say by early 1942.

I'll post a few pictures of the remaining Soviet troops, and then I'm going to take a break for a while.

[Red Prince]

Here is an overview of the Caspian Sea region. The Iraqi CAV, just over the border from Persia, can reach Krasnovodsk during the next Axis impulse.

[Red Prince]

The Japanese in Siberia can put together a 2:1 attack unless the MIL retreats across the river. Even if he does, the Japanese are likely to try for a 1:1 attack.

[Red Prince]

To the west, the Germans are approaching the Urals, and are now all in supply.

[Red Prince]

And in the Leningrad region, HQ-A Manstein might have a shot at a low-odds attack. He certainly has expendable troops he can use to fill the coffins with.

[Red Prince]

So far, S/O '41 has been relatively bloodless compared with the previous few turns. The losses have been costly, though, in terms of defenses. At the start of Allied Impulse #11 (the 7th impulse of the turn), here are the units that have been lost:

[Orm]

I would not pass with the Allies. USSR is soon dead anyway. Better to let the Western Allies do their stuff. THe time for US and CW to consider the USSR needs is over.

[composer99]

I agree with Orm. USSR is out of the picture and may well be completely conquered by next summer. The USSR needs to try to tie up as many Axis forces as possible to keep them there in 1941-1942 so the US & CW can get back into the Med.

The Allies need to take advantage of the enormous production increment they have in 1941-1942 while the Axis are still gearing up (the CW and the Axis reach max production multiples in 1943; the US just keeps growing) to build up the forces capable of fighting the entire Axis head-on from 1943 onwards.

As Japan is an island and does not cooperate with the other Axis powers, the US should be able to knock it over by 1945-46 despite the assistance from the European Axis that will surely come once the Trans-Siberian rail opens up to pan-Eurasian Axis trade. This should ensure the Allies have sufficient production advantage, along with sustained strategic air warfare, to outproduce and outmuscle the European Axis.

The CW still needs to build short-term to reinforce India against Japan (and possibly also against an invasion by Germany & Italy from the west).

[micheljq]

You know in our campaign USSR was thrashed a little like in this AAR in 1941.  What was left of the red army retreated in the mountains of Caucasus and Ourals and survived the summer of 1942.

We are now in SO43 and the russians are able to mount a counter attack next winter.  That was rough in Mediterranean, Axis was able to put a decent fight there and reinforce Italy a lot.  But Italy will not survive 1943 even so.  The americans had to put a lot of effort in the Med. so the Japanese are quiet in the Pacific, americans lacks transport and troops to really annoy the japanese as of now.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: micheljq

You know in our campaign USSR was thrashed a little like in this AAR in 1941.  What was left of the red army retreated in the mountains of Caucasus and Ourals and survived the summer of 1942.

We are now in SO43 and the russians are able to mount a counter attack next winter.  That was rough in Mediterranean, Axis was able to put a decent fight there and reinforce Italy a lot.  But Italy will not survive 1943 even so.  The americans had to put a lot of effort in the Med. so the Japanese are quiet in the Pacific, americans lacks transport and troops to really annoy the japanese as of now.

I'm glad to see this can happen in a "real" game, too. Thanks for the input. [:)]

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: micheljq

You know in our campaign USSR was thrashed a little like in this AAR in 1941.  What was left of the red army retreated in the mountains of Caucasus and Ourals and survived the summer of 1942.

We are now in SO43 and the russians are able to mount a counter attack next winter.  That was rough in Mediterranean, Axis was able to put a decent fight there and reinforce Italy a lot.  But Italy will not survive 1943 even so.  The americans had to put a lot of effort in the Med. so the Japanese are quiet in the Pacific, americans lacks transport and troops to really annoy the japanese as of now.

I'm glad to see this can happen in a "real" game, too. Thanks for the input. [:)]

I suspect that CW had not recived such a trashing in that game as in your AAR. I suspect this because then I can't see how the USSR would be strong enough to attack in 43 unless Germany had to be concerned with CW during 41.

With that said I do think your AAR game can happen in plenty of games.

[Red Prince]

So, am I reinforcing France? Or am I evacuating France?

[Red Prince]

I'm also thinking the USSR can get away with a Combined Action to take out the German convoys in the Baltic. They need 1 land move to pull back form Ulan-Ude, 3 Land Moves to make sure Baku stays Russian, and another to create ZOC with the 6-4 INF so that Germany can't stampede up from the South. Of course, that won't matter after Turkey is aligned, but it has value for now.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

So, am I reinforcing France? Or am I evacuating France?

I have a hard time seeing the landings in France actually leading to something. With that said I think you need to decide if you want Germany to have to work for it or not and if making Germany work for it is worth the extra effort.