Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[ny59giants]

I agree with Alfred in the need to go out and look for trouble with KB. You need to confront the Allied CVs now rather than wait for them to get stronger. CF may be able to invade somewhere successfully, but you have the ability to make any reinforcements a high risk option for him.

[Cribtop]

Alfred and Michael - Thanks for your input. I think it is wise, and points out that I have been too uncertain as we shift from the offensive to the defensive phase. I didn't consider the idea that the reconquest of Baker would be an effort to draw the USN CVs into battle, mostly because I didn't think I could rely on LBA from TB (over 10 hexes distant) and because I was operating from the assumption that an "exchange" battle, even a winning exchange, is a defeat for Japan. However, it is becoming clear to me the value of the active defense you both suggest. If I sit back and wait, CF will do what he wants, where he wants, and I cannot predict where or when. If I stay aggressive (while doing so intelligently), I can dictate or at least positively influence the course of events. This will cause me to re-evaluate my plans, so again, my thanks for the analysis.

[Cribtop]

FYI, I have been violently ill since Sunday, which is rare for me. Mrs. Cribtop is down too. I'll catch up the AAR and analyze possible aggressive operations shortly.

[PaxMondo]

We've had that go through our household as well.  Take care and get well. 

[Cribtop]

Thanks, Pax. It's been pretty ugly, but I think the worst is finally behind us.

OK, I wanted to share with the economics wizards the following numbers and ask for your assessment of the Chinese war machine's ability to keep an army supplied.

In the portions of China that still have an open LoC to Chungking, as of August 13 (a few days ahead of the AAR), CF still has:

547 LI, 607 RS and whatever the Chungking auto supply amount is. He still has some HI under his control, but has lost all Chinese Oil production so the HI should have petered out by now for lack of fuel, correct? The Burma Road is closed.

By my math, this looks pretty ugly, perhaps as low as 40 supply + auto supply per turn. What do you think of this? Is China effectively a few months away from starvation or can they continue to fight for a longer period?

[Mike Solli]

By my math (keep in mind it's 5am and I just got up) I get:

607*10/15 = 404 supply + auto supply per turn. Still not good.

[princep01]

Crib, I'm surely glad to hear all the "Cribtops" are recovering from the recent family malady. Maladies such as this are the bane of having young children about. Many of my earlier life New Year's resolutions centered on the hope that everyone to stay healthy and stop the financial hemmoraging caused by frequent trips to doctors.

It looks like you really have China on the ropes. Well done. What are the plans from here. Do you expect to merely contain the Chinese at this point, while transferring troops to other endeavors or are you going to try for total destruction? It's kind of a tough choice at this stage of the game as the Allies will soon have real offensive potential to deploy against the empire.

[ny59giants]

If you don't have any recon flights to Ledo, I would send some. He might have a good number of transport planes there trying to get supplies into China. It would be worth an attack by your Helens to destroy some.

[Cribtop]

Thanks, all. Mike S, I forgot to factor in the number of resource points produced per turn, so you math is correct but that number is too low for China to last long.

Michael, as you will see once I catch up, we've been reconning and waiting for transports to show up at Ledo. A few finally did and we took countermeasures.

Princep - excellent question. I really can't afford to keep 17th Army in China too much longer, and the whole point of Red Dragon was to allow transfer of units to the perimeter to solve the problem of lack of IJA LCUs inherent to the first two years of Scenario 1. I suspect we will mount a fresh offensive in China, but only use local forces.

[Cribtop]

August 11, 1942

I've finally recovered enough from the great Texas Barfless Flu of 2012 to catch up the AAR. The only members of the Cribtop clan not laid low by this horrible disease were the dogs, who had species immunity on their side.

Subs

CAs are reported near Bombay. Turns out this is the Ceylon limping along. Naturally a jillion I-boats fail to attack as she sails by.

4th Fleet

Mavis floatplanes spot what is reported as two CAs in a TF at Canton Island. Perhaps a reaction force waiting to pounce on a Baker Island counter invasion?

SE Fleet

Milne Bay makes level 4 forts while Allied B-17s continue to recon Tulagi.

14th Army

No change.

16th Army

Our tanks move to within one hex of Tennant Creek today. That should stir up a hornet's nest. The Allies sweep our tank regiment near Daly Waters but no one is home.

Normanton makes level 1airfield. Interesting.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

We are rewarded with more sinking sounds, no doubt victims of the raid on Calcutta.

Karachi makes level 7 airfield and nets CF some nice VPs.

China

Pingsiang, which we abandoned as CF's army approached, is occupied today. The enemy finds IJA troops surrounding the base on all road hex sides. It will be interesting to see what he does next. We liberated all but a few hundred of the 179K resource points that were at the base when it was first occupied by the Empire.

Combined Fleet

After the recent AAR discussion, we've put a lot of thought into various initiative retaining operations. A separate post this weekend will detail them.

[Cribtop]

August 12, 1942

Clark Field falls.

Subs

I-30 misses a DD escorting the Ceylon toward a shipyard.

A Kate reports a hit on a sub near Truk. This is annoying as we thought we'd shut off search and ASW by MKB groups to avoid giving away our position. Turns out we missed some. Fortunately, a few bored land based Kates have been flying ASW missions in the area, so perhaps the intel value is minimal.

4th Fleet

We raid Baker's airfield but only a few Nells take off and the effect is minimal.

SE Fleet

No change.

14th Army

DA Clark drops forts to 0 and takes the base with 2:1 odds. The IJA artillery units participated and took counter battery damage despite having "defend" orders. 24 LCUs retreat to Bataan for the last stand, while 2 are destroyed. Casualties are 7325(1438) vs 524(11). The enemy casualties were 99% destroyed squads, almost none were disabled, which shows the condition they are in. We'll rest a few days and then push on. Cribtop HQ welcomes this news as the troops deployed here will help form a mobile reserve to protect the perimeter.

16th Army

Babeldaob makes level 6 forts. The engineers here will work on inner perimeter bases.

As expected, B-17s visit our tanks just outside of Tennant. The tank regiment near Daly Waters will move toward Tennant to support and to cut the LoC of CF's stack near Daly.

We will mount an air offensive here starting tomorrow.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

Chittagong hits port level 6.

Recon of Ledo finally shows a long expected development, namely 18 transports at the base, presumably flying supplies over the Hump. We will bomb and LRCAP. This is a further sign that the enemy is suffering from low supply in China.

China

DA at 81, 54 catches previously defeated KMT forces straggling into Pingsiang. Odds are 21:1, 10 LCUs retreat, casualties 679(160) vs 39(0). So far, no reaction from either the Pingsiang or Changsha stacks.

Nanchang makes level 5 forts.

[Cribtop]

August 13, 1942

Subs

I-26 is DC'd by numerous DDs, forced to surface, and sunk near Sydney. Her brave death will go down in the Kaigun history books. Even after being force to the surface, she three times fired torpedoes and hit several enemy DDs with her deck gun before succumbing. Banzai!

Her Captain's last message shows he was engaged by escorts of a strong SCTF including CAs, CLs, CLAAs and lots of DDs. Clear evidence that CF moved his main USN battle fleet, and probably the USN CVs, to Sydney.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Nadi makes level 4 airfield.

14th Army

We rest at Clark before pushing on to Bataan. Our bombers can now focus solely on Bataan, engaging in both ground and airfield attacks. The enemy's US Army and Marine formations did not fight at Clark, so it will be interesting to see their AS. No doubt they are starving, but those are good troops.

16th Army

We planned to sweep and LRCAP our armor near Tennant, and suspect CF's Kittyhawks and 4Es had orders to do the same. Bad weather shuts in both sides, however. This is welcome news to our tankers, who reach the Tennant Creek hex.

25th Army

Enggano invaded by DBCL troops.

15th Army

Our bombers don't fly at Ledo. LRCAPing Oscars do take off, but no intercepts are reported. Odd. Perhaps the enemy gooney birds were unable to fly because of bad weather.

China

DA Siangtan drops forts to 0 but just misses 2:1 odds. Casualties are 2168(191) vs 1338(6). One enemy LCU is destroyed. We DA again tomorrow.

Recon shows that the 6 KMT LCUs left in Ichang have abandoned the base. We'll confirm tomorrow and take the base with a collaborationist LCU if it's empty. This is the first major reaction to the danger at Changsha by the enemy. No doubt the troops will approach via Changteh.

[Cribtop]

August 14, 1942

We are now caught up with the game.

Subs

As our subs move toward Sydney in reaction to yesterday's sighting of the USN fleet, today a Glen gives confirmation by spotting a large, BB heavy SCTF in the same area. The enemy will have to leave Sydney over a carpet of red subs.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Brisbane makes level 7 airfield.

14th Army

No change.

16th Army

B-17s and even Wirraways bomb our tanks at Tennant Creek. Annoyingly, our LRCAP Nicks are rained out. A sweep of Tennant by 40 elite Zeros is not, however, and claims 10 of 14 Kittyhawks on CAP, gutting the enemy fighter strength in NW Oz. We lose two air frames but no pilots. This Zero group is really good, with the lowest EXP pilot sitting at 74.

Tomorrow we will try a DA. No sense getting our combat power drained away by bombers. CF has so far detached one armor unit from his Daly stack to try to restore order at Tennant, but they will take days to arrive. No guarantee we can take the base, but even if we don't the move here is a nice spoiling attack.

25th Army

Enggano occupied.

15th Army

We bomb Ledo with iffy results. Still no LRCAP intercepts.

Hyderabad hits level 4 airfield.

China

DA Siangtan takes the base with 3:1 odds. 6 LCUs retreat into the hex between Changsha and Changteh (which is inconvenient), casualties 6049(412) vs 969(2). The short battle of Siangtan thus saps another month plus of replacements squads from the Chinese Army.

Recon confirms Ichang is abandoned. We will take it but only garrison with a Chinese unit. This will free up some forces to join the battle at Changsha.

No moves by the Pingsiang or Changsha stacks. We have begun maneuvering our surrounding stacks so that they will all enter Pingsiang together. Intention is to determine enemy strength here and if possible concentrate a force to destroy the 17 LCU stack, allowing all our forces to converge on Changsha.

The enemy stack near Kukong is so far still moving back to that base. We will see whether they try to re-take it or cut overland. Pursuing forces should be sufficient to bottle them up in the Kukong hex if they go there.

Combined Fleet

The discovery of the enemy fleet at Sydney is relevant to our planning, which we will detail over the weekend.

[Cribtop]

August 15, 1942

Subs

I-15 misses a DD near Sydney in an enemy BB TF while Glens positively ID enemy CV TFs at Sydney. This will create an interesting situation. We know CF's fleet is in port, he knows we have a horde of subs outside. A sort of sub siege, with no doubt enemy ASW TFs and aircraft coming into the mix. Bottom line is that with all those Glens, we should have advance notice of CF's next move.

I-7 misses an AM near Newcastle. I-8 misses a DD near Newcastle, then is pasted because of the deadly UK ASW. She is forced to surface and reported sunk in the combat replay, but in fact survives (barely). Never seen that before. She'll try to limp home but flotation damage is awful, so we expect her to sink. In order to reduce the losses of the past few days, our subs will pull back and stand down Glens before re-positioning into a distant cordon with Glens set up so as not to enter Sydney's airspace.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

No change.

14th Army

Marching on Bataan.

16th Army

Our Nicks try to keep the B-17s off the tanks at Tennant Creek, but only a small number fly and results are poor. We sweep the base with Zeros, but there is no CAP. Then, a DA does well, getting 2:1 odds, dropping forts to 2 and inflicting casualties of 56(0) vs nil. The Allies have 2 base forces and an anti tank gun unit. None of them has any true AS. This will be a race between the enemy 4Es and our tanks ability to drop more forts. A third regiment will arrive in a few days to help out, as will transports to fly in supply. The toughest problem is getting our Nicks to LRCAP in numbers from Daly.

Recon shows the enemy's main armor stack marching on Daly. Cribtop HQ isn't overly concerned. We have more troops, ATGs and forts than last time, while CF has separated one of the larger armor units to try to race down to Tennant Creek.

Taberfane makes level 3 forts.

25th Army

Sampit invaded.

15th Army

No change.

China

Nothing new, really. We are still marching to isolate enemy stacks near Kukong, at Pinsiang and at Changsha.

Combined Fleet

We've just about finished up the first round of DD and CV upgrades. We still need to send Shokaku and Zuikaku to the yards once enemy intentions are clear and we know a respite is available.

[Cribtop]

August 16, 1942

Subs

No contacts other than spotting and counterspotting by aircraft near Sydney.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Noumea makes level 6 airfield.

14th Army

No change.

16th Army

Our Nicks kill a 4E, but lose 3 of their own number (2 are Ops losses, only 1 pilot is killed). The monsters do a good job hitting our tanks, and unfortunately high DIS and low supply leaves us on the short end of a DA, with 1:2 odds, casualties 16(1) vs 10(2). We'll await the arrival of the third tank regiment.

25th Army

Sampit falls.

15th Army

Yesterday we reconned Calcutta and saw no fighters. Today we recon again in preparation for another port attack but see 50 fighters present. I guess our last two raids have CF on high alert for Dinahs over the base. [:D]

China

Ichang was indeed abandoned and today is occupied by rowboat with forts at 5.80! Nice. Ichang has minimal value until Red Dragon has culminated and we begin an air campaign to destroy supply at Chungking, but it's nice to pick up a freebie.

Combined Fleet

No change.

[Cribtop]

August 17, 1942

Subs

Grayback duds on an xAK near Kushiro. Cribtop HQ is pleased that the DCs don't explode above the sub despite being in a deep water hex.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Adelaide makes level 7 airfield, Townsville level 6.

14th Army

No change.

16th Army

B-17s hammer our armor at Tennant Creek. Our Nicks are exhausted and don't fly.

Mataram invaded. The Dutch base force that has been there since Dec 7 is gone, either evac'd by sub or destroyed by attrition.

25th Army

Pagai-eilanden invaded.

15th Army

IJAAF bombers hit Ledo and destroy several C-47s on the ground. No fighter opposition yet.

China

We withdrew the four divisions that constituted the northern pincer of Red Dragon. As we shift some of these forces south, the rest will shore up the defensive lines up north. Today CF took advantage of this move by marching all his Kienko front forces into hex 81, 40 and launching a DA. Our ground was well chosen, however, as we had 2 divisions in a mountain hex with 3 forts. Thus, despite an 11 to 2 LCU advantage, the DA fails with 1:2 odds, casualties 6018(31) vs 1407(2). We'll bomb tomorrow just to be safe, but in a few days another brigade will arrive to stiffen these forces and the hex should be out of reach. This creates an opportunity to cross the river behind the KMT, cut the Kienko road and perhaps bottle the 11 units in hex 81, 40. We will try this move, if it succeeds we could re-activate the northern pincer for a limited thrust at Kienko.

Combined Fleet

Encouraged by the action near Kushiro, we detach four good ASW fleet DDs to hunt subs near Truk.

[Cribtop]

August 18, 1942

Subs

Tarpon duds on one of our ASW DDs near Truk, the return depth charges explode above the sub. I guess we haven't gotten past that date yet. Because of this, our deep water ASW near Truk will retire.

Snapper duds on a CM escorting troopships near Molu. Seal hits and sinks an empty xAK near Tarakan.

RO-67 is DC'd without effect near Noumea. IJN escorts of a troop convoy chase off K XI near Sabang. A Lily based at Sabang reports a hit on another sub in the area. We have more confidence than usual that the report is accurate because this group sports the first 70 ASW trained sub killer pilots.

Our subs near Sydney move in such a way that they dodge numerous Allied ASW patrols. The "siege of Sydney" will continue.

4th Fleet

Bettys from TB hit Baker, confirming that only the Marine Raiders are present.

SE Fleet

A small SNLF Coy is flown in to Terapo today. Our former DBCL troops will be used to stiffen garrisons throughout the Empire or will be used to meet garrison requirements.

Vava'u makes level 3 airfield.

14th Army

No change.

16th Army

Nicks intercept the 4Es and shoot down a B-17 outright, also damaging enough bombers to disrupt the accuracy of the strike. The third IJA armored regiment arrives in the Tennant hex today. Tomorrow we will DA with all 3 units, supported by a maximum effort by the IJAAF. Frankly, Cribtop HQ rates the odds of success at below 50%, but it's worth a shot.

Mataram is occupied. This concludes the DBCL invasions of garrisoned enemy bases in the DEI (although we are quietly aware that the enemy's Borneo survivors have fled to the inland dot base near Kuching - we plan to make that a training target). The regiment freed up will garrison Port Blair.

Taberfane goes to level 1 airfield.

We have sucked Balikpapan, Samarinda and Tarakan out of excess oil. Our TK convoys will re-configure to focus on fuel delivery.

25th Army

Pagai-eilanden falls.

15th Army

A big effort at Ledo sees the place swept and bombed. Several more C-47s are destroyed. Surely CF will move in fighters soon, so we will take the day off and recon tomorrow. We will again try LRCAPing, however, and also will send in a Sentai at night. We don't have HRs on night bombing in this game, but I will voluntarily limit myself to one group per night and approach CF about the issue. I don't want to completely abandon harassment bombing as Japan used it a lot, but think we should stick to a level that actually constitutes "harassment bombing" except for B-29s against Japan.

China

The enemy does not attack again at hex 81, 40. We are currently manuevering with two goals in mind: 1) bring reinforcements south; and 2) isolate enemy stacks, with Pingsiang having top priority. Then we will destroy the stacks one by one, building combat power until a direct assault on Changsha is possible. That will be the end of Operation Red Dragon and will lead to a short pause to extract 17th Army and re-orient.


Combined Fleet

See the next post for analysis.

[Cribtop]

Analysis - Active Defense

After recent discussions in which Alfred and nygiants59 (congrats on the Super Bowl, by the way, hoser!) have reinforced prior suggestions by Nemo and jrcar to participate in an active, rather than a passive, defense, I've put some thought into what that means in terms of doctrine. The following short descriptions are the tools I have conceptualized. How and where to apply them is the trick, of course. Comments are very welcome.

Direct Counterattack

Commonly used in AE, this involves either landing a large reserve to re-take a captured base or to reinforce it to the point that capture by the enemy is impossible. Probably requires at least 3 Divisions in reserve plus good sealift capacity.

Indirect Counterattack

A thrust against rear area bases of the same AO in which the enemy has begun an offensive. Intention is to disrupt enemy plans and SLoCs and generally throw things into chaos from the enemy's perspective. For example, presume the Allies invade Tulagi and Guadalcanal. An indirect counterattack might involve seizure of Luganville. A great in game example of this move on a grand scale was (IIRC) when Castor Troy responded to an invasion of the Timor area by seizing the supporting bases in NW Oz, isolating the Timor invasion and eventually destroying it.

Spoiling Attack

An attack against enemy positions that occurs before an anticipated enemy offensive in the same AO. Intention is again to throw off the enemy's plans and take the initiative, but the element of timing is the differentiator from one of the counterattacks. For example, if I anticipate CF is planning to hit the Timor area, I might seize Carnarvon.

Disruptive Thrust

This is the most aggressive, and potentially most risky, tool available. It involves a large scale attack into the enemy's depth, but in an AO from which an enemy offensive is not expected. Risks include the size and exposure of the Op in general, as well as the risk that if a vital target is not chosen, the enemy may simply ignore the disruptive thrust and proceed with his offensive. This method obviously must be handled with care.

Application

So, did I miss an option? If so, by all means let me know.

The next question, of course, is what operations should be attempted in the current game. Cribtop Intel is of the opinion that Baker was a bit of a "player training" Op for Cuttlefish, a doable, low risk attack that let him get used to amphib assaults with the Allied forces. It has probably gone long enough that it isn't a feint for another Op. However, his main force is clearly located at Sydney. He could be looking at PM, the Solomons or the Gilberts from there. Alternatively, he could be planning a left hook out of Sydney with a surprise attack on the DEI, probably in the Timor area.

One obvious move is a direct counterattack on Baker Island. It is too late to use this as a method of bringing the USN to battle. I'm not sure it's really worth recapturing, especially if I have to reveal MKB's location to do it (that is not necessary, but with the IJN CVs in deep support if something goes wrong they may have to show themselves, or, alternatively, may want to if CF commits fleet elements).

I will spend the next week pondering other potential uses of these doctrines, and would be happy for any thoughts of the readership. Note that raiding is not on the menu after the disaster of Operation Kraken.

[Mike Solli]

I've been thinking about reserve divisions and how to transport them (even though I'm nowhere near that stage in my game). Transporting them is an issue. Sending transports into the potential teeth of an enemy offensive is almost certain death. Sure we have lots of transports but the appropriate transports may not be in plentiful supply. I like the Tohos, configured as the -t, for such a mission. They are relatively fast at 14 kts but not the critical 15 or 18 kt types to haul stuff back to the empire. They can also be escorted by the Ansyu-Cs, which are in plentiful supply as well and relatively tough for a Japanese PB.

[Captain Cruft]

Ansyus can self-escort in a FT TF with 1,000 cargo capacity each. I often use them that way, mostly for supplies but sometimes troops too.

However, my preferred troop transports for the combat zone are the big 18kt Yusen and Kyushu jobbies converted to AK-t. These load and unload very quickly at ports.