MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Moving on to Axis Impulse #2 of N/D '41, Germany made 2 Ground Strikes in an attempt to help with the clean up of the remaiing Soviets. Rostov was a failure, but near Baku they disorganized the Astrakhan MIL:

[Red Prince]

Here's another one of those situations where I managed to take myself by surprise, even in Solitaire Mode. I guess there's just way too much to think about, when you consider all of the possible permutations for land moves alone. In post #2474, I talked about how I thought I had set up the Soviets the best I could, but that I made an error with the MECH because it could be put out of supply (and isolated) by the freshly aligned Turkish MTN unit. I also said that it shouldn't be too difficult to put it back in supply without disorganizing any units. Well, that's still true, but it is going to require me to move units other than the ones I expected to use to do the job.

Below is an image of the land moves I've been making with Germany and Italy. As part of the preparations for an attack west of Baku, I moved the Italian MOT up the rail line, thinking it would help to keep the Soviets completely defensive. It turned out to be a better move than I expected, putting HQ-I Timoshenko and the 39th Infantry out of supply, too. Timoshenko is stacked with the 13th MECH Division, which had to be disorganized to reach the hex. So, in all, 4 of the 7 Russian land units near Tiflis are now OOS and isolated, which you can see by the red indicator in the upper-right corner of the units. It was my intention to use the GARR to put the MECH back in supply, moving the MECH in Tiflis into the mountains to take its place and the 39th Infantry into Tiflis. But now I'm going to need to use both the GARR and the ARM to get everybody back into supply, and I can't move the MECH out of Tiflis. I think. When I get to the next Soviet impulse, I'll see if I can figure out something better, since I don't want to leave those mountain passes open. It might be better to disorganize the 39th Infantry with a move northwest. We shall see.

Anyway, this just proves yet again that you can even "trick" yourself in a Solitaire game.

[Red Prince]

Three attacks this impulse by the Axis:

Rostov includes 10 factors of Ground Support (20 halved) and does not include HQ-I von Bock. Using him could increase the odds almost to 3:1 and he could try HQ Support, but I'd rather see if I can kill at least one of the Soviet defenders this impulse and still have him available to reorganize units in case that's all the Germans get. Without the MIL, the defense drops from 22 to 14, and if it ends up snowing next impulse that goes down to 7, which means another attempt can be made either way.

Near Baku, 4 factors of Ground Support are being added. They'll be escorted by the Italian FTR in Tabriz, not for protection, but so that the Soviets won't add their own Ground Support. They could actually add up to 9 factors, making this a 2.6:1 attack, but it would use up all of their local LND, and it would only postpone the inevitable while risking the destruction of those aircraft and pilots later in the turn (assuming they survive the Air-to-Air Combat). The Urals are better defended, and it's also where the defense needs to hold out as long as possible, so those LND have to rebase there. The benefit would be an almost certainty that one of the defenders could retreat into Baku (or be Shattered), but there are more important units that the Soviets need to try to save.

In Burma, this is an Automatic Blitz attack. Last turn I thought it would be an easy victory, but rolled terribly. This time I am taking no chances.
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Note: I haven't added the die roll modifier to the Baku attack because I'm a little uncertain what it's going to be. I think it is +3 (+1 for disorganized units, +3 for armor, and -1 for combat friction), but I might have miscalculated it in my head.

[Red Prince]

It turns out I was right in my calculations for the attack near Baku. So, here are the attacks for Impulse #2 of N/D '41:



And the results:

Attack on Burma [91, 123]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .672 (No), Roll = Automatic = */2B (Breakthrough)
Attack on Rostov: Assault, Fractional Odds .904 (No), Roll = 4 = 1/- (SS MIL destroyed, attackers disorganized)
Attack on USSR [68, 77]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .111 (Yes), Roll = 10+3 = 13 = */2B (Breakthrough)

At Rostov, the Fractional Odds Roll was a key factor in the attack. At either 2:1 or 3:1 a Blitz attack was out of the question. There was just too much risk of losing Rostov without making the Germans pay for it. The Assault CRT, however, even at 3:1 odds, has a 60% chance to hold the city and a 50% chance to kill off at least 1 German while doing it. At 2:1 odds that only gets better, with a 30% chance of killing 2 Germans and a 40% chance to kill some Germans without losing a single defender. Germany can afford to risk the losses, of course, but failing to eliminate any defenders would be unpleasant for them. The Fractional Odds Roll favored the USSR, and the Germans just barely missed killing a defender. It only cost a single MIL, but they won't be able to mount an attack of the same magnitude again this turn, most likely.

Near Baku, the Blitz CRT gauruntees that the attackers will remain organized, and there's a 60% chance that both defenders can be killed. If the Axis is lucky enough to get the Fractional Odds Roll, that improves to 80% chances. They did, and rolled wonderfully, and I really wish (as the Germans) that the rolls were swapped with the Rostov attack. That would still result in roughly the same thing, with 2 dead Soviets, but it would have captured Rostov. The price, of course, would have been the 7-4 Siberian and the 4-3 INF being Shattered -- to show up again in the Urals next turn -- but it would have freed up a lot of Germans near Rostov.

For the Soviets, in retrospect, I'm very happy I didn't add Ground Support. Even if all of it got through, the odds would shift to 3:1 and the same thing would happen. And a lot of LND power would be wasted. As Germany, I'm disappointed in the Rostov failure, but I've gained 2 Oil resurces and Baku simply can't hold against the next attack. Well, it can, but it would require a very bad roll indeed. With Baku cleared of Soviet activity, I can focus all of my land forces in the theatre on destroying the defenders of Tiflis. Once that is finished, a huge portion of the German military can seek its fortune in Siberia and elsewhwere.

[Red Prince]

I made a minor error in placing HQ-I von Leeb during Land Movement. I thought I had him close enough to provide reorganization to some of the troops that attacked Rostov, but I forgot that it is the motorized movement rate that is used to determine how far away a unit can be and still be reorganzed by an HQ unit. So, I'll have to wait an extra impulse (probably) to make another attempt on Rostov. In the meantime, I rebased 2 fighter-bombers nearby to help out if an attack seems possible. This leaves little coverage in the Caucasus, but I think there are more than enough Axis units there to let a few suffer Ground Strikes if it comes to that. Besides, I doubt the Soviets will waste LND power here (unless it seems necessary) on either Ground Strikes or a ton of Ground Support. The situation is near hopeless for them.

So, HQ-I von Bock did his part, reorganizing 3 units:

[Red Prince]

On to Allied Impulse #3, and it looks like the winter is going to be mild. It started to rain in the North Temperate zone, and it's still raining in the Arctic, but that's all. At least the impulses will advance by 2 for the time being:

[Red Prince]

As promised, the United States made the DOW on Ireland, and it aligned with Germany.

The CW sent its fleets out, adding its SUBs to those of the USA in the S. China Sea, a small force from Brisbane to the Coral Sea, and also a very large force from Liverpool to Cape St. Vincent. This last force was only going up against a single NAV the Italians left there last turn to maintain supply along the Moroccan coast, and it had enough AA factors to abort or even destroy the NAV with a good roll. It doesn't have any Air Support, but it should be enough to force Italy to take either a Naval or Combined Action next instead of the Land Action that would help move things along in Russia. Unfortunately, the CW couldn't find the NAV. Italy will probably still need to alter its plans, though.

In addition to the fleet movements, a few more convoys were sent out to make sure all resources reached their intended destinations, and escorts were sent to vulnerable sea areas. The MIL in Halifax (the one covered in locusts [;)] ) boarded a transport in the E. Coast, and the Sydney MIL hopped onto a transport in the Tasman Sea, too. I'm not certain of their destinations yet, but they aren't useful where they are right now, and the transports needed to rebase this turn, anyway. I know that doesn't sound like good strategic thinking, but there are several options open for each, and I don't know which ones will be the most useful yet.

In the S. China Sea, the Allies ran into more trouble with die rolls, and had half of their forces destroyed, damaged, or aborted. In the Coral Sea, though, they were able to clear out the few Japanese ships that were creating some minor problems for the USA:

[Red Prince]

The CW made a lucky Ground Strike on the Irish INF in Dublin, preparing it for the upcoming American attack (top image), and the Soviets decided to risk an even-odds combat against the Turks flying CAP in Georgia (middle image). I didn't think I was going to try any Russian Ground Strikes, but I decided that if I could disorganized a few of the units in this stack (bottom image), it would probably hinder the German advance on Tiflis enough to be worthwhile. It was a semi-success, and the LND used can rebase across the Caspian Sea to a safe location. The other 2 Air Missions can be used later on to rebase 2 of the 3 remaining LND in the region toward the Urals.

[Red Prince]

For Allied Impulse #3 of N/D '41, the United States attacked Dublin and made 2 invasions on the minor ports of Ireland:



And the results:

Attack on Dublin: Assault, Fractional Odds .142 (Yes), Roll = 8+1 = 9 = */2S
Attack on Waterford: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attck on Cork: Assault, Roll = Automatic

The attack on Dublin was first, because eliminating the defender turned the invasion of Waterford into an Automatic attack by denying the Notional Unit benefits due to being in supply or in the ZOC of a friendly unit. The attack went off without a hitch, and both ports were won automatically, so Ireland is going to be an American "protectorate" at the end of this turn.

[Red Prince]

After rebasing some more American planes to the UK and 2 LND from the Caucasus toward Magnitogorsk, I decided to use MacArthur's reorganization abilities on a few transports in Belfast. There are still units to be gathered from the US of A, and the only one of the Allies left that isn't facing an oil shortage is the United States, so it isn't an issue on that count.

The second half of the image below shows something I considered for HQ-I Timoshenko. Having those 2 land units reorganized would give a little more flexibility near Tiflis, but in the final analysis, I thought it would be better to keep him active for a bit. The Germans can't yet destroy him (I think), and they also can't get to Tiflis in the Rain. I managed to get supply back to all 7 units, and only had to disorganize 1 unit in the process. So, no reorganization effort from Timoshenko this impulse.

[Red Prince]

Moving on to Axis Impulse #5 of N/D '41, I thought I'd show you how few Neutral Minors remain on the map. In fact, only 27 remain. Of these, two (Faeroes and Crete) were previously controlled territories of other minors that were completely conquered by the Axis (Denmark and Greece). 17 more are on the "Americas" map, and only 8 Neutral Minors remain on the European, Asian, and African maps. This truly is a World in Flames.

[Red Prince]

The CW bid for Cape St. Vincent did force the Italians to take something other than a Land Action this impulse. They settled on a Naval Action, and they're going to try to clear the CW out of that sea area again. They'll also use the opportunity to move a few troops across the Med and set up an invasion of the Balaeric Islands that is long overdue.

Germany is going to continue with Land Actions, of course, and they're also going to send Rommel back to the Eastern Front to help Mannerheim maintain supply in this lousy weather.

As for the Japanese, now that Burma is cleaned up, they can take a full Naval Action to move more troops to India and add defenders to the outer rim of their sphere of influence. They might also try to set up a few more invasions with divisions, just to be a pain for the Allies. The ports in the Gilbert Islands and the Ellice Islands can be cut off from supply for an impulse, at least, which makes for automatic invasions -- unless the USA can re-establish supply and/or drive away the ships carrying the divisions before the next Axis impulse.

I'll probably get around to some of this today, but it may be tomorrow before I post the results.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

The CW bid for Cape St. Vincent did force the Italians to take something other than a Land Action this impulse. They settled on a Naval Action, and they're going to try to clear the CW out of that sea area again. They'll also use the opportunity to move a few troops across the Med and set up an invasion of the Balaeric Islands that is long overdue.

Germany is going to continue with Land Actions, of course, and they're also going to send Rommel back to the Eastern Front to help Mannerheim maintain supply in this lousy weather.

As for the Japanese, now that Burma is cleaned up, they can take a full Naval Action to move more troops to India and add defenders to the outer rim of their sphere of influence. They might also try to set up a few more invasions with divisions, just to be a pain for the Allies. The ports in the Gilbert Islands and the Ellice Islands can be cut off from supply for an impulse, at least, which makes for automatic invasions -- unless the USA can re-establish supply and/or drive away the ships carrying the divisions before the next Axis impulse.

I'll probably get around to some of this today, but it may be tomorrow before I post the results.

What is the Italian objective in the Cape St. Vincent? Why attack a CW fleet using the Italian navy at sea at this point? Or is that fleet capable of doing a port attack on the Italians (there should be FTR cover on the Italian fleet in port)? Is there an invasion force with this CW fleet or TRS? If not: it might be better to ignore them for the moment.
You don't want to go into a war of attrittion with the CW/US fleet, except when there is something to gain for the Axis. Gains are the probable killing of US/CW TRS and especially AMPH, which are the most important naval units IMHO. If there isn't an invasion force on that fleet, ignore it, since it cannot do a lot of harm. It is only there to kill the Italian navy in the first place.

[Klydon]

Hmm. Been a week since Aaron posted anything. Hope all is well for him.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Hmm. Been a week since Aaron posted anything. Hope all is well for him.

He has been having some difficulties with his health.[:(]

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Hmm. Been a week since Aaron posted anything. Hope all is well for him.

He has been having some difficulties with his health.[:(]

That isn't good news at all...

[Klydon]

I was wondering if that was the case. [:(]

Hope you get better soon Aaron.

[brian brian]

(((Aaron)))

+~ = positive vibrations

[composer99]

While it was too bad this AAR did not get past 1941 due to Aaron's health issues, it was very enjoyable, and if any beta tester had the time & inclination I'd suggest a similar AAR/stress test combo be undertaken.

(Were I a beta tester, I'd consider doing such a thing myself, though my laptop, large screen though it may have, would produce rather unsatisfactory screenshots.)

[Easo79]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Hmm. Been a week since Aaron posted anything. Hope all is well for him.

He has been having some difficulties with his health.[:(]

Just in case he is able to read this, I would like to thank Aaron "Red Prince" his work in writing this AAR, which I am finding a fascinating reading, full of insights and infinitely helpful.

I would also like to thank all of those who made additional comments.

Reading those posts and seeing the screenshots leave me a mixed feeling. A little bit of healthy envy for those that have had the chance to play the game...but, on the other side, the game seems to be so...so....so.... completed (one year ago) that one cannot avoid the conclusion that its release must not be very far away in the future.