Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[vettim89]

I think that at this point, we can probably no longer consider this a Scen 2 game. My reason for that is that Japan does not hold nor has it every held Palembang. This represents at least 500 fewer HI points being produced EVERY DAY. If the missing HI is applied only to aircraft production, that means more than 400 fewer single engine planes produced a month. Now, adjustments can and likely have been made, but I doubt Chez is able to produce anywhere near the normal Scen 2 air power we would expect. I am no expert on the Japanese Economy; perhaps some one with deeper knowledge could expand on the thought.

Also, you may not have to worry about Musashi, Dan, If I were in Chez's position, I think I would rather have more air frames than another superbattlership

[Capt. Harlock]

My reason for that is that Japan does not hold nor has it every held Palembang. This represents at least 500 fewer HI points being produced EVERY DAY. If the missing HI is applied only to aircraft production, that means more than 400 fewer single engine planes produced a month. Now, adjustments can and likely have been made, but I doubt Chez is able to produce anywhere near the normal Scen 2 air power we would expect.

I remember there was some discussion that the Japanese economy could hum along even without Palembang in Scenario 2. (I'm afraid I'm too lazy to crank back through 80+ pages to find the details.) But then again, there was also some discussion of when the Japanese oil cushion would be exhausted, and since it's now mid-November, we're probably there. And Palembang is not the only oil base Chez has had to do without. Maybe this is the true reason there has been so little Japanese expansion for the last several months.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

My reason for that is that Japan does not hold nor has it every held Palembang. This represents at least 500 fewer HI points being produced EVERY DAY. If the missing HI is applied only to aircraft production, that means more than 400 fewer single engine planes produced a month. Now, adjustments can and likely have been made, but I doubt Chez is able to produce anywhere near the normal Scen 2 air power we would expect.

I remember there was some discussion that the Japanese economy could hum along even without Palembang in Scenario 2. (I'm afraid I'm too lazy to crank back through 80+ pages to find the details.) But then again, there was also some discussion of when the Japanese oil cushion would be exhausted, and since it's now mid-November, we're probably there. And Palembang is not the only oil base Chez has had to do without. Maybe this is the true reason there has been so little Japanese expansion for the last several months.

I believe that discussion was more along the lines that the Japanese Economy wouldn't crash immediately without Palembang's fuel but it would grind down much quicker, say in early to mid 1943.

There are levels of survival we are prepared to accept, The Architect

Matrix Reloaded

[Canoerebel]

11/20/42
 
Vettim and Others:  Thanks for the thoughts and info regarding the Japanese economy.  Months ago I read various comments in the Nemo vs. One-Eyed Jacks AAR.  My overall impression was that Japan's economy might be able to function into 1944 without Palembang's oil, subject to various caveats.  I would think Steve is on the "short" side of the equation since he doesn't have some other oil production bases, plus others being damaged or taken belatedly.  As for Japan's industry situation, I have no idea....but that's okay, as it is fun to play without God-like omniscience in the game. 
 
South China Sea:  Seawolf missed a shot at Soryu near Cam Ranh Bay.  Coming a day after Hiryu's similar experience, I bet Steve's decision-making for his carriers will be impacted.
 
Borneo:  Most of 25th Indian Division is ashore at Pontiak, a major accomplishment.  One more big convoy will arrive tonight or tomorrow night.  In two days, the Allied expeditionary army will begin the two-hex advance from Pontiank to Singkawang.  This force will include the two Indian divisions, 23rd Marines, 2nd Royal Tanks, 110th Combat Engineers, and XXXIII Indian HQ.  1st Marine Parachutes will strike Kuching should it remain vacant.  111th Chindits is available to hit Beautfort, well to the north, if doing so seems advantageous (IE, if it will really rattle Steve).  Allied combat TFs at Billiton will dispute any enemy efforts to reinforce Singkawang by sea, though no such effort appears immenent.
 
Singkep:  Allied deliberate attack fails, but Japanese force takes much higher losses. 
 
NoPac:  Everything looking good at Onne and Para.
 
SWPac:  Garrison troops bound for vacant Taberfane and Saumlaki in the Timor Sea depart Townsville tonight.

[Alfred]

Not having Palembang, Japan can survive until mid 1943 without any real problems. It does require Japan to

• have captured and made operational all the other oil fields - a task ChezDa Jez has most singularly failed to accomplish
• not go off on wild goose chases which gobble up fleet fuel stocks for no benefit - again a task ChezDaJez has most singularly failed to achieve

It also helps if the Japanese player is not adopting all the commonly accepted shibboleths, but nonetheless still wrong, such as never repairing Light Industry.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for that insight, Alfred.  If that's the case, the Japanese economy should grind to a halt in 1943.  Japan's been in less than minimally acceptable sitaution since the beginning of the war, and the Allies are going to increase the pressure and toll in coming months as the Borneo airfields that can be built large come online.  If the economy does crash entirely, Steve might have to surrender meekly, which should be the worst possible defeat for a Japanese player:  Banzai, yes.  Meek surrender, heaven forbid.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for that insight, Alfred.  If that's the case, the Japanese economy should grind to a halt in 1943.  Japan's been in less than minimally acceptable sitaution since the beginning of the war, and the Allies are going to increase the pressure and toll in coming months as the Borneo airfields that can be built large come online.  If the economy does crash entirely, Steve might have to surrender meekly, which should be the worst possible defeat for a Japanese player:  Banzai, yes.  Meek surrender, heaven forbid.

Not a complete halt, but it would surely hamper production. He could shut down vehicle and armament production to have more available for aircraft, but he is still going to have to reduce production. I started up Sceneario 2 and checked out the Industry Management screen to get these figures:
Oil in Japan's pool: 4,832,160. Maximum production 3050 Bases producing oil:
Akita 32; Ashikawa 5; Fukuoka 12; Muroran 5; Nagoya 25; Niigata 14; Sapporo 5; Shimonoseki 32; Tokyo 50; Yamagata 12; Shikuka 30; Kurume 10; Tokuyama 5; Rashin [near Vladivostok] 5; Fushun [near Mukden] 55; Taihoku [Formosa] 8; Total - 307

Locations he has or could take to get more oil:
Sian [China] 20; Lanchow [n. of Sian] 90; Urumchi [Far n. China] 50; Magwe [Burma - I believe you hold this] 300; Ledo [Burma] 70; Medan [Sumatra] 210; Djambi [Sumatra] 250; Benkalis [Sumatra] 40; Miri [Borneo] 150 + 150 expansion; Brunei [Borneo] 10 + 10 expansion; Tarakan [Borneo] 90; Samarinda [Borneo] 100; Balikpapan [Borneo] 300; Soerabaja [Java] 190; Tjepoe [Java] 35; Boela [Ceram] 25; Babo [NW New Guinea] 20. Caveat - in conquering a place the industry usually gets some permanent damage so the actual production captured will be less than these starting figures.
Clearly the offshore production is much more than Japan's starting production and added together it likely approaches that of Palembang. But not having Palembang is a big handicap for Japan once the starting 4 million point oil pool is used up.

[paullus99]

He's got to have burned through a substantial amount of that surplus at this point - especially given his mass sorties of the IJN to Fiji & back several times.

[princep01]

Keep the pressure on at Singkep. The LYBs are on the brink of collapse. I think he is suffering from deficient supply and support. He'll fight hard in the beginning, but when you see a loss pattern like the one you observed in your last attack...they are on the brink. Push those guys over the brink and into the drink.

[zuluhour]

YES SIR!

[Canoerebel]

11/21/42
 
The Islands:  Japan is reinforcing Singkep with 144th Regiment.  An Allied deliberate attack at Muntok, preceded by a heavy 4EB raid, failed pretty badly.  This is just what the doctor ordered, because it should keep Steve focused on these two bases rather than Singkawang.  The Allies don't intend to lose Muntok - it's too important - but Singkep may be another matter.  It's too close to Singapore to take long chances and becomes irrelevant if Singkawang falls and as Djambi's airfield maxes out (currently at level four, but on the way to level eight).
 
Singkawang:  Reinforcements continue to come ashore at Pontianak, with one more critical night of unloading remaining.  The Singkawang force at Pontianak now totals 505 AV.  By tomorrow, that should be more like 700.  Orders will be issued tomorrow to commence the advance.  Billiton Island airfield went to level six (on the way to eight), which helps with security in the western Java Sea.  Tomorrow, the Allies will buy the Indian division at Cochin (1360 political points).  This unit is fully prepped for Singkawang, but I'm thinking she won't make it in time to particpate in that operation.  If not, I'll weigh several operations - reinforcing Sumatra while prepping for some distant base, or going to Port Blair and beginning prep for a Malay Peninsula base.
 
NoPac:  Things looking good in the Kuriles.  A bunch of Canadian battalions and brigades in Canada begin prepping for Onne and Para.  This becomes first priority once that Indian div. is paid for tomorrow.
 
Subs and APDs:  The Java and South China Seas have been flooded with subs of late.  The Allies take occasional damage - an APD today - and get in there own lick once in awhile - today DD Suriyame.  I've lost two APD now, but these vessels have performed critical missions to the islands around Sumatra for the past several months.  Right now, two other APDs are committed to carrying a British infantry unit from Cochin to Sinabang, the western-most of the islands south of Sumatra.  Steve's caught wind of this, which is what I really wanted, though it would be nice to get an airfield up and running here as that would permit Hurricane fighters to transit from Port Blair to eastern Sumatra. 

[Historiker]

Now the title of the thread is correct - if it was ment to mean "that can't be true" in German.

I see that for weeks now... [;)]


Not really the time to read 90 pages, but have the Allies already conquered half of DEI or was it never lost?

[Canoerebel]

It was never lost.  Fortress Palembang worked beyond my wildest dreams as my opponent froze and didn't even try to deal with the situation.  Then, since late summer, the Allies have advanced north into the Java Sea and southern Borneo.  Crazy game.  I've predicted for a long time that it should be over by the end of 1942.  Steve might soldier on for two more years, but it won't mean anything.
 
"Das darf nicht var sein" has been used to reflect the crazy nature of the game.  I only know a tiny bit of German, but I picked up this phrase while reading Jan Curran's An Appalachian Trail Journey.  Curran was a US Army colonel station in Germany for many years.  When he retired, he began a through hike on the AT - 2,150 miles.  Somewhere in the mountains of North Carolina, he encountered some German tourists.  When he started speaking to them in their native tongue, one of them exclaimed, "Das darf nicht var sein!"

[Historiker]

I see

How much reinforcements were sent to Palembang? When did he try to take it?

[Canoerebel]

Way back around December 10, I made a comment that I was going to concentrate at Batavia and Oosthaven.  Nemo suggested that I consider Palembang instead.  I did so and began airlifting local troops into the base, but this was mainly small stuff designed to create a road block.
 
By mid January it seemed apparent that Steve was focused elsewhere, so I "went all in."  I began trransfering major Indian and British units into Palembang and then to supporting bases like Oosthaven and Benkolen.
 
Steve seemed to freeze, so that the reinforcement operations were never threatened.  He never attacked Palembang (or Oosthaven, which would have beent he way to come IMO).  He did try a few things with his ships - some stiff battles were fought around Oosthaven, Java and Cocos Island.  But he came out on the short end - losing a bunch of cruisers, battleships, two carriers and three CVLs.  These kind of setbacks just seemed to make him freeze all the more.
 
By late summer, the garrisons were full strenght and forts were maxed out, so the Allies finally transitioned over to the offensive, taking islands north of Oosthaven and Palembang.  By autumn they moved on to southern Borneo, where there were several bases that Japan hadn't taken.
 
So, as we near the end of 1942, the Allies have a massive force in the DEI, have seriously attrited Japan's capital ships, and are preparing to go on the serious offensive - Singkawang should fall before Christmas.  That's the key base that should set things up for 1943.  Once Signkawang falls, Singapore, western Sumatra and Burma become untenable for Japan.  They will whither of the vine.  The Allies will probably move on Malaya in early '43.  Borneo will also be targeted.  And the Allied transports carrying the first troops into the eastern DEI from Oz are enroute.
 
Really, things are just awful for Japan.

[Historiker]

Really, things are just awful for Japan.

Impressive! But the best part is, that your opponent didn't quit - which would be quite understandable, considering that he must be out of oil by now...

[Canoerebel]

Well, this is Scenario Two, so he should be okay on oil for awhile yet.  This was recently discussed in the thread by Alfred and others - not in depth - but it has been discussed in depth previously here and in Nemo's AAR vs. One-Eyed-Jacks.  The wisdom seems to be that in Scenario Two Japan might be able to go without Palembang deep into '43 if it is careful.  This creates the possibilty of Japan turning the tables on the Allies if a Fortress Palembang is tried.  Japan could react by ignoring (or isolating) the Fortress while moving in strength on rear areas rendered vulnerable by lack of troops that were sent to Palembang.
 
As for my opponent, he's as faithful as can be.  He's game, though he's in a very tight spot.  It seems that he is by nature a "historical reality" player, while I am more of a "gamer."  With two different personaltiies involved, the game veered into the weird and surreal.  He's probably not enjoying that aspect at all, but he hasn't complained and he's faithful in sending turns.  Good guy.  Weird game.

[pws1225]

Yep, you gotta respect Chez for being game!

[Canoerebel]

11/22/42
 
You Can Say That Again:  We played the November 21 turn twice.  I'm not sure how I did it, but I accidentally sent Steve the same turn back-to-back.  My bad.  Funny thing was, he played both turns and didn't notice until I caught it and pointed it out ("Hey, Steve, you sent the the Nov. 21 combat report again...what they hey, it's my fault!").  I think this is a telling indicator of just how busy Steve is at work (I won't go into detail again, but his job has placed incredible demands on him since last summer).
 
Borneo:  Almost all troops are ashore at Pontianak now.  805 AV begin the march to Singkawang tonight.  Roughly 230 AV will remain at Pontiak to guard against an enemy attack.  Japanese strike aircraft sortied in fairly large numbers from Singapore.  They finally wore out the CAP and sank three xAK and damaged xAP Indora.  The Pensacola TF has reached Oosthaven and will report to Billiton Island, where it will help patrol these waters - I want to make sure nothing comes into Singkawang uncontested.
 
Singkep:  The Allies get revenge for the ships lost at Pontianak by damaging or sinking six xAK here.  4EB are hitting the Japanese.  I am hoping that I can hold Singkep, but it won't be easy.  But I do like having Steve focused here while the real show at Singkawang.
 
Sumatra:  The isolated Japanese army at Padang didn't show any erosion in AV until about two weeks ago.  I've been watching one division in particular.  It's AV has declined from 425 to about 405.  I think Japan's army is out of supply.  The Allied army is outnumbered here and the terrain is jungle, so I won't try an attack until the AV drops to much lower numbers.  But this is a good sign.
 
Sinabang:  The Allies lost a misbehaving APD to Nells out of Sabang.  The APD arrived at daylight and hung around the entire day, which kind of negates the idea of fast transport.  Nevertheless, Steve is paying attention way out here, so that's good too.
 
Burma:  The Happy Stalemate at Magwe continues.  Within two days the Allies will have a 250-AV army at Pegu.  Japan has five units there - believed to be weak, so I want to see if there's an opportunity here.
 
NoPac:  All quiet at Para and Onne.

[Canoerebel]

11/23/42
 
Borneo:  The Singkawang-bound army of 805 AV made 13 miles today, so the two-hex march should take eight days.  The Japanese have 7k defenders, so the base will fall unless Steve brings in reinforcements.  Allied combat TFs will visit the hex every night to stop any such effort.  Japanese strike aircraft escorted by fighters again visited Pontianak in large numbers, sinking a KV and an xAKL, finishing off damaged xAP Indora, and damaging a few more ships.  The Allied CAP performed ably, however, so that on the day Japan lost 75 aircraft in a-2-a while the Allies lost just 12 (these totals include action up at Onnekotan Jima, too).  Ketpang airfield goes to level three.  Pontianak should do so in about three days, which will seriously help with local CAP.
 
Singkep:  Steve continues to reinforce and he targeted scores of Sallys against this base.  The Allies returned the favor by committing 4EB and some 2EB.  The Allied force here is weak - just 55 AV at the moment - while the Japanese force is growing, but very disrupted by landing without prep.
 
Malaya:  Yesterday, the Allies bought 26th Indian Div. at Cochin.  She boarded transports and is enroute, though I'm hoping we won't need the unit at Singkawang.  If not, there are some likely targets in Malaya - inlcuding Phuket, which is still controlled by the Allies (but doesn't need a big unit) and Victoria Point, which unbelievably appears vacant.  If 26th Div. isn't needed at Singakwang, I think the Allies will land at Victoria, using the carriers (which are six days from being ready at Colombo) to provide CAP.
 
Burma:  The Allies will bombard at Prome tonight to gauge the strength of enemy opposition.  Up near Toungoo, the Allies will attack what I think is a weak and depleted 2nd Raiding Regiment in the jungle.  If the latter attack succeeds, the Allies will be able to move on Prome, which I think is lightly defended.  The Japanese position in Burma is weak primarily because Steve recognizes that Burma could be cut off by an Allied move on or near Singapore (IMO).  I think his actions in Burma are therefore appropriate, but I hope to take advantage of the situation.
 
NoPac:  Two Allied xAK sunk at Onne before the LRCAP from Para could reach the base; once the American fighters did, though, they performed well.
 
CenPac:  Japanese landings at vacant Vanoruko (a few hexes south of Ndeni) underway.
 
Oz:  Aussie troops departed Townsville to occupy Taberfane and Saumlaki - both TFs are nearing Horn Island without detection.
 
Political Points:  After buying 26th Div. yesterday, the Allies were down to six.  The next target is a variety of Canadian brigades and battalions at Victoria and Prince Rupert.  These units are bound for Onne and Para.