Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[BBfanboy]

Bullwinkle, CR has summarized losses and posted maps that tell the story just a few pages back. The sticky point is that KB is still very strong and the allied carriers would not be wise to challenge yet. Add to that the fact that KB is staying under Nettie cover and you see why CR is not lunging forward. Both sides have had high BB and CA/CL losses too. I think Essex doesn't show until mid-1943 so I have to agree with Canoerebel's feint and deek and "hit him where he ain't" approach.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Bullwinkle, CR has summarized losses and posted maps that tell the story just a few pages back. The sticky point is that KB is still very strong and the allied carriers would not be wise to challenge yet. Add to that the fact that KB is staying under Nettie cover and you see why CR is not lunging forward. Both sides have had high BB and CA/CL losses too. I think Essex doesn't show until mid-1943 so I have to agree with Canoerebel's feint and deek and "hit him where he ain't" approach.

CR could trade every carrier he has for two of the KB and come out ahead. The KB is not the fearsome thing it is in December 1941, and it doesn't grow better as fast as the USN's carriers do. CR has good pilots afloat and ashore, a lot of good planes, and long-range TBs now. He also has his own land-bases pretty close to Miri, or will in a few turns. Chez has lost a LOT of his cruisers, and some BBs. Miri is not a long-bomb, Hail Mary move. It's a next step, but a strategically decisive one. If he loses it and never had Palembang he's done. I would bet that already he's having to decide between planes and ships, fuel-wise. And I've been shocked at how stiff the pilot tax is for the Japanese. In Feb 1942 for me it's already almost 40,000 HI/month. His fuel situation has to be hit, and hit, and hit. If Chez brings surface TFs to Miri, good. He has about 1 to 2 good responses left with anything bigger than a DD. If he brings the KB that's a chance for CR to end the war right there.

CR can win, and he can't lose, if he goes for either Miri or Balikpapan. If Chez sank every Allied CV (and I'm not saying CR should bring them all) all he does is push his loss off six months more. He has mis-played the strategic economy so badly to date at this point it's unrecoverable.

If it were me I'd go for the win now. Take Miri and then leapfrog a strong force into the southern PI, then turn south and take or ruin Balikpapan. (Ruin works too if fuel-denial is the aim.) But CR is more cautious than I am.

[Crackaces]

Mr. Doyle Brunson, the finest Texas Hold 'Em player in history...

[:-]

I would contest that..as would most of the poker world who played during that era would contend ... Stu Unger by far was the finest Texas Hold 'Em player in history ... many are quoted to back that statement up in the book One of a Kind by Nolan Dalla ...
http://books.google.com/books?id=d3jmOU ... &q&f=false

Given today's "all in bashes" involving thousands of players . Stu's feat will never be repeated .. you had to be there to appricate pure poker at its best ...may he rest in peace .. [:(]

Ok back to the AAR ...

[paullus99]

The KB isn't nearly as fearsome as it could have been. If I recollect, Chaz as lost at least 3 CVLs & 2 CVs for none on CR's side. He's already got parity or even a slim superiority with the Brit Carriers involved.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Bullwinkle, CR has summarized losses and posted maps that tell the story just a few pages back. The sticky point is that KB is still very strong and the allied carriers would not be wise to challenge yet. Add to that the fact that KB is staying under Nettie cover and you see why CR is not lunging forward. Both sides have had high BB and CA/CL losses too. I think Essex doesn't show until mid-1943 so I have to agree with Canoerebel's feint and deek and "hit him where he ain't" approach.

CR could trade every carrier he has for two of the KB and come out ahead. The KB is not the fearsome thing it is in December 1941, and it doesn't grow better as fast as the USN's carriers do. CR has good pilots afloat and ashore, a lot of good planes, and long-range TBs now. He also has his own land-bases pretty close to Miri, or will in a few turns. Chez has lost a LOT of his cruisers, and some BBs. Miri is not a long-bomb, Hail Mary move. It's a next step, but a strategically decisive one. If he loses it and never had Palembang he's done. I would bet that already he's having to decide between planes and ships, fuel-wise. And I've been shocked at how stiff the pilot tax is for the Japanese. In Feb 1942 for me it's already almost 40,000 HI/month. His fuel situation has to be hit, and hit, and hit. If Chez brings surface TFs to Miri, good. He has about 1 to 2 good responses left with anything bigger than a DD. If he brings the KB that's a chance for CR to end the war right there.

CR can win, and he can't lose, if he goes for either Miri or Balikpapan. If Chez sank every Allied CV (and I'm not saying CR should bring them all) all he does is push his loss off six months more. He has mis-played the strategic economy so badly to date at this point it's unrecoverable.

If it were me I'd go for the win now. Take Miri and then leapfrog a strong force into the southern PI, then turn south and take or ruin Balikpapan. (Ruin works too if fuel-denial is the aim.) But CR is more cautious than I am.

Nothing in your post is disagreeable, Bull. But CR has politely demurred on 'breaking' Chez's back in this game for some time now. Many good suggestions have been raised on ways to accomplish this, but CR is moving slowly in deference to his opponent's unusual approach to gameplay rather than a lack of options how to kill him quickly.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

The KB isn't nearly as fearsome as it could have been. If I recollect, Chaz as lost at least 3 CVLs & 2 CVs for none on CR's side. He's already got parity or even a slim superiority with the Brit Carriers involved.

Even without those losses my point is that KB Fear still is maxed out in this forum. CR has five USN fleet carriers I believe, plus the RN's, plus whatever CVEs he can scrape up. Against the PH six that is a stand-up fight with LBA a key variable. Once Sinkwhatchamacallit is his CR is fine with going as far as Miri to destroy the Japanese economy.

Also, geographically, if the KB is south it can't come around the west side of Borneo, and the Makassar Strait ought to be a death-trap of USN subs with semi-working fish, so it would need to run far east to hook in past Jollo et al. Not fast. CR could be ashore at Miri more or less before it got there if he wanted to avoid battle.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

Mr. Doyle Brunson, the finest Texas Hold 'Em player in history...

[:-]

I would contest that..as would most of the poker world who played during that era would contend ... Stu Unger by far was the finest Texas Hold 'Em player in history ... many are quoted to back that statement up in the book One of a Kind by Nolan Dalla ...
http://books.google.com/books?id=d3jmOU ... &q&f=false

Given today's "all in bashes" involving thousands of players . Stu's feat will never be repeated .. you had to be there to appricate pure poker at its best ...may he rest in peace .. [:(]

Ok back to the AAR ...

From what I know of him Unger is right up there, but he's dead, and Doyle is still playing. Brunson developed much of the theory of TexHoldE, wrote books about it, and won many, many championships in both the old "concentrated" days and in the newer mass media, mass player tournaments. The poker world of the 70s was a wholly different environment than today and Brunson excelled in both. He's slowed by age now, and there are younger, pure-math players who may make fewer mistakes, but IMO many of them are not pure poker players like Brunson and Unger. There's more to the game than odds.

[vettim89]

Once Sinkwhatchamacallit is his CR is fine with going as far as Miri to destroy the Japanese economy.

I resemble that remark. Never can keep all those stupid DEI bases straight. A lodgement on NE Borneo will allow 4Es to crunch the ports at Miri, Brunei, and Balikpapan to crap. Even without Strategic Bombing, CR can eliminate those bases as sources of fuel/oil by preventing loading

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Nothing in your post is disagreeable, Bull. But CR has politely demurred on 'breaking' Chez's back in this game for some time now. Many good suggestions have been raised on ways to accomplish this, but CR is moving slowly in deference to his opponent's unusual approach to gameplay rather than a lack of options how to kill him quickly.

"Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win."

"Always listen to experts. They’ll tell you what can’t be done and why. Then do it!"

"Your enemy is never a villain in his own eyes. Keep this in mind; it may offer a way to make him your friend. If not, you can kill him without hate--and quickly."

"When the need arises--and it does--you must be able too shoot your own dog. Don’t farm it out--that doesn’t make it nicer, it makes it worse."

"Place your clothes and weapons where you can find them in the dark."

"People who go broke in a big way never miss any meals. It is the poor jerk who is shy half a slug who must tighten his belt."

"There is no such thing as ‘‘Social Gambling." Either you are there to cut the other bloke's heart out and eat it--or you’re a sucker. If you don’t like this choice--don’t gamble."

"Beware of altrusim. It is based on self-deception, the root of all evil.
If tempted by something that feels “altruistic” examine your motives and root out that self-deception. Then, if you still want to do it, wallow in it!"

From "The Notebooks of Lazarus Long"

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Once Sinkwhatchamacallit is his CR is fine with going as far as Miri to destroy the Japanese economy.

I resemble that remark. Never can keep all those stupid DEI bases straight. A lodgement on NE Borneo will allow 4Es to crunch the ports at Miri, Brunei, and Balikpapan to crap. Even without Strategic Bombing, CR can eliminate those bases as sources of fuel/oil by preventing loading

I thought they had an HR about strat bombing before 1944?

Re names: there are some places on the map where I have a private, in-my-head name I use rather than trying to sort out the real. "Beeble-bo-bub" is a major Japanese fleet base near Palau . . .

[witpqs]

[:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
"Your enemy is never a villain in his own eyes. Keep this in mind; it may offer a way to make him your friend. If not, you can kill him without hate--and quickly."

Interesting quotes, except the above which is, IRL, bunk. I've read several reports by USAA trainers and command officers to the contrary. They expressed disdain for the lack of visceral *hate* by the typical doughboy facing the Germans as a problem for motivation. No one wanted to get at the Germans quite the same way that they wanted to get at the Japanese. Race-based animus, however distasteful, served a purpose in the Second World War for American troops. While I'm glad to live on the backside of that racism curve, I don't want to get out the PC 'white'wash and forget what made men fight then.

...And that is a MAJOR deviation from the AAR. Sorry about that Canoerebel.

[zuluhour]

"Beeble-bo-bub" is a major Japanese fleet base near Palau

The island was obviously named by a sot.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Once Sinkwhatchamacallit is his CR is fine with going as far as Miri to destroy the Japanese economy.

I resemble that remark. Never can keep all those stupid DEI bases straight. A lodgement on NE Borneo will allow 4Es to crunch the ports at Miri, Brunei, and Balikpapan to crap. Even without Strategic Bombing, CR can eliminate those bases as sources of fuel/oil by preventing loading

I thought they had an HR about strat bombing before 1944?

Re names: there are some places on the map where I have a private, in-my-head name I use rather than trying to sort out the real. "Beeble-bo-bub" is a major Japanese fleet base near Palau . . .

That was why I said CR could use port strike. A damaged port loads at much lower rates; ergo, while CR can't bomb the oil and refinery centers, he can make sure their products have a very difficult time leaving.

BTW, I love Beeble-bo-bub

[princep01]

Bullwinkle, I have to say, I admire your AE style, sir. By nature, I am relatively conservative and on the cautious side of neutral, but in the circumstances prevailing herein, it is clear a relatively quick kill is obtainable without inordinate risks. Personally, I do not favor committing CVs into the confined waters of the DEI around Borneo, on either side and with either side, but, what you say is shiningly, glaringly, inalterably true.

CR has many options on how to perfect the killing blow(s), but I read your suggestion as the sword to the heart approach. Over the next six months, Miri and Balikpapan can easily be in CR's hands.....and Japan laid prostrate on the alter of oil.

Well said....for a Moose.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Nothing in your post is disagreeable, Bull. But CR has politely demurred on 'breaking' Chez's back in this game for some time now. Many good suggestions have been raised on ways to accomplish this, but CR is moving slowly in deference to his opponent's unusual approach to gameplay rather than a lack of options how to kill him quickly.

"Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win."

"Always listen to experts. They’ll tell you what can’t be done and why. Then do it!"

"Your enemy is never a villain in his own eyes. Keep this in mind; it may offer a way to make him your friend. If not, you can kill him without hate--and quickly."

"When the need arises--and it does--you must be able too shoot your own dog. Don’t farm it out--that doesn’t make it nicer, it makes it worse."

"Place your clothes and weapons where you can find them in the dark."

"People who go broke in a big way never miss any meals. It is the poor jerk who is shy half a slug who must tighten his belt."

"There is no such thing as ‘‘Social Gambling." Either you are there to cut the other bloke's heart out and eat it--or you’re a sucker. If you don’t like this choice--don’t gamble."

"Beware of altrusim. It is based on self-deception, the root of all evil.
If tempted by something that feels “altruistic” examine your motives and root out that self-deception. Then, if you still want to do it, wallow in it!"

From "The Notebooks of Lazarus Long"

As a youngster Heinlein was my favorite author. I read every book he ever published.

"Never appeal to a man's better nature, he may not have one. Appeal insted to his self interest"

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: princep01

CR has many options on how to perfect the killing blow(s), but I read your suggestion as the sword to the heart approach. Over the next six months, Miri and Balikpapan can easily be in CR's hands.....and Japan laid prostrate on the alter of oil.

I cannot envision a way that any fuel or oil from anywhere in the DEI could be shipped back to the home islands if it's bombed enroute. N. Borneo or Palawan, combined with Cebu in the Central Philipines combines with Leyte/Samar east of there forms an impenetrable barrier over any oil shipments through the region. Morotai or Palau / Bobble-do-rag would complete the eastern border of the 'no ship' zone.

CR's still 1.5 years from kamikaze enablement, so there's really no downside to getting as high up the Philipine chain. I'd do this in preference to landing directly on those respective oil sources. Reinforcing already held islands in the Philipines is essentially a zero cost option to this opportunity. This would be my preference-accomplish the strategic goal at zero cost.

CR: Are you morally opposed to sending a sacrificial xAK to Cebu with supply? It could help get those Philippine forces / whatever is alive there still in fighting shape again.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

That was why I said CR could use port strike. A damaged port loads at much lower rates; ergo, while CR can't bomb the oil and refinery centers, he can make sure their products have a very difficult time leaving.

Ah, I missed "port." I was focused on strat bombing in the next line. You are correct, although if he can bomb ports from Sink. he can bomb loading TFs too. Either way, Miri is closed. I just think taking the darn place saves a lot of wear and tear on the air forces.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

BTW, I love Beeble-bo-bub

Then you might also enjoy its brotiher in the southern PI: ""Bojangles."

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: princep01

Bullwinkle, I have to say, I admire your AE style, sir. By nature, I am relatively conservative and on the cautious side of neutral, but in the circumstances prevailing herein, it is clear a relatively quick kill is obtainable without inordinate risks. Personally, I do not favor committing CVs into the confined waters of the DEI around Borneo, on either side and with either side, but, what you say is shiningly, glaringly, inalterably true.

CR has many options on how to perfect the killing blow(s), but I read your suggestion as the sword to the heart approach. Over the next six months, Miri and Balikpapan can easily be in CR's hands.....and Japan laid prostrate on the alter of oil.

Well said....for a Moose.

ARRRRROOOOOO!!!! [:)]

The fear of losing CVs in the DEI is misplaced IMO, as it is rarely needful to use any there. The LBA bases are too numerous and close. CVs are mandatory in a mid-Pac strategy as historically, but an island-hopping campaign as CR is engaged in here does not need them. It might be useful to bloody the KB, and the DEI is poisonous for it as well as the USN, but not absolutely needed. As I said above, the DEI also is a maze of approach routes hampered by straits, end-arounds, shallows, potential minefields, and reefs. By comparison the way into Miri is an interstate highway.