Pelton vs 8421 1.06 1943

[Peltonx]

This game kinda reminds me of my game vs Hoooper minus the 1v1=2v1 and my game vs Kamil minus the old manpower * numbers.

Be interesting to see how this plays out.

I pushed until late 42, unlike both Hoooper and Kamil keeping Russian OOB lower and over running more manpower centers.

I also know how to use reserve mode this game.

I am guessing based on past numbers a minor German win is out of the question unless 8421 really screws up.

I probably have a 33% chance of a draw, but I am just not sure.

I have tried going over to defensive in early 42 and mid 42 and both failed.

Should be a very interesting out come.

8421 only mistakes have been his tank breakthroughs and a poor 41, but he hung onto Moscow and knows better then most how to get the most rifle squads out of the red army.

Pelton

[henri51]

Six million Soviet losses - OUCH! Can the Soviets survive those kinds of losses? I was under the impression that a loss ratio of 10:1 would practically ensure a German victory, but you have 20:1!

Henri

[Karri]

ORIGINAL: henri51

Six million Soviet losses - OUCH! Can the Soviets survive those kinds of losses? I was under the impression that a loss ratio of 10:1 would practically ensure a German victory, but you have 20:1!

Henri

It's 2 to 1, not 20 to 1.

[Peltonx]

Its 2.49 to 1 which is about at the knifes edge as far as ratios go.

Game vs M60 the ratio is 3.01 to 1.

2 to 1 is clearly in Russian favor
2.5 to 1 is borderline
3 to 1 is clearly in German favor

These ratios are effected by armament and manpower pts over run also. Plus units pocketed after November 1st 1941.

Pelton

[henri51]

ORIGINAL: Karri

ORIGINAL: henri51

Six million Soviet losses - OUCH! Can the Soviets survive those kinds of losses? I was under the impression that a loss ratio of 10:1 would practically ensure a German victory, but you have 20:1!

Henri

It's 2 to 1, not 20 to 1.

Two to one losses and 3 million German losses -OUCH! Can the Germans afford such losses? [:D]

Henri

[Peltonx]

Quick up-date. The front has been completely static for the last 8 turns.
But the 2nd turn of 1943 after buying infantry Corp. 8421 opened up his winter offensive at the spot I predicted ehehehe.

Not sure why 8421 desided to hit me here, but any ways.

His first attack he won, but the next 4 were all hold results. One hex he attacked twice and still lost heheh.

Turn 82 only: 1 retreat and 4 helds
SHC Loses: 17,260
GHC Loses: 4,370
Ratio: 3.97 to 1

I have been sending all my new units to this area for the last 6 turns heheh. Terrain up here make defending easy, you can't sapper out woods and swamps.

It is very early and I expect his forses to be balanced out better then they are and attacks to be in areas that are not so easly defended hehehe

I be posting a full run down every 10 turns starting turn 85. There will be a 3 or 4 turn delay as I have reserves that will be moving around looking for a nice spot to bag treats.

[Peltonx]

Looking at the 5 battles

1 retreat had no reserve help, there WAS no units in reserve mode. A opps on my part.
1 held had no reserve help
3 helds had reserve help

Of the 4 battles that had units in reserve in same army and withen range thats a 75% success rate.

Not bad. I still do not have every single Corp and army at 7 yet.

Pelton

[Flaviusx]

Loss ratios are in of themselves meaningless. The true aim of the Soviet player is to stress the Axis replacement capacity and inflict losses beyond them so as to gradually diminish German strength.

[Peltonx]

All about moral really and not ratios or replasement capacity.

If your infantry have 100% toe and are under 60 moral they are usless vs stacks of 50 cv.

As I and others have tracked, it takes atleast 18 to 22 attacks per turn to lower German OOB. 15 wins 5 loss ect

Even then the OOB goes down slowly very slowly and is kind meanless also. Many times the German army is down to 3.1 to 3.3 million by end of 41 summer and blizzard, but moral is high and so is CV.

Its the hard wired German moral and the 5 to 7 russian wins per turn during 43 that destory the infantry CV before 44.

The major thing that matters is German moral, the rest of the stuff is minor.

8421 has done everything right to date other then throwing away 20 tank and cv corp. But I think hes learnt his leason and has them 10+ hexes from front training.
Hes just pounding hexs now striping moral some before 44 and tring to make the red bulge in line. Standard russian MO for cracking lines hehe.

[Peltonx]

Keys for German if you dont get a white flag in 41 or 42

1. manpower centers Moscow being the tipping point, lowers replasemnts from 120k per turn to under 100k
2. armament centers 80+ the effects are felt in 42.
3. AP crunch pocket 200+ units after nov 41
4. Russian player that builds wrong units.

Generally speaking 1 will not be enough for a long game win, but atleast 2.

1-3 delay the build up and starting of steam roller.
4 is a gift which again delays build-up and or speed of russian advance during 44 -45.

Pelton

[Peltonx]

Turn 75 - 84 Trends
56,000 armaments in pool
SHC OOB turn 75: 7,521,000 Turn 85: 8,144,000
Change: +623,000
GHC OOB turn 75: 3,375,000 Turn 85: 3,556,000
Change: +175,000

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses
——-—028————–021———07—

GHC - Attacks———Wins—-Losses—–-
————00-—————00———0——–—-

Combat Losses only turns 75 - 85

SHC Loses: 90,000
GHC Loses: 41,000
Ratio: 2.2 to 1

Basicly a sleepy 10 turns. But

[Peltonx]

Turn 85

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses
——-—011————–010———01—

GHC - Attacks———Wins—-Losses—–-
————01-—————01———0——–—-

8421 starts a general offensive from Velikie Luka north. SHC attacks 11 times and wins 91%, wow really high win %.
Amazingly none of my 9 fully rested and max MP units in reserve mode reacted to any of the battles, bad luck I guess.

If I had to pick and area where I would like the SHC to attack it would be this area for sure, good terrain and I can shorten front quick during mud and summer.

Reserves are being moved to this front.

[Peltonx]

Battle results chart for turn 85

[Seminole]

Amazingly none of my 9 fully rested and max MP units in reserve mode reacted to any of the battles, bad luck I guess.

From his success rate it looks like he is carefully picking his fights. Reserves won't commit if the odds are already too bad, and also smaller units have a better chance of responding, so you might consider breaking down your reserves to increase their likelihood of seeing action.
I'm sure you're aware of these factors, but figured I'd include them for observers of the AAR:

A unit in reserve mode will never commit into a battle if the initial combat value (CV) odds ratio at the time the unit checks are over 10 to 1. A defending reserve unit will also never commit into a battle if the odds are less than 1 to 2.

...

Corps sized combat units are less likely to be committed offensively as they add one to the leader initiative roll. Brigades and Regiments are more likely to be committed as they subtract one from the leader initiative roll. In addition, as units in reserve mode from one side are committed to a battle, the chance of further commitments to the battle decline, based on the size of the combat units that have already been committed as follows:
Corps =15
Division = 9
Brigade = 5
Regiment = 3
Using the above values, as additional units attempt to be committed, they check to see if Die(18) is greater than the value of units already committed. If not, the unit is not committed.

[Peltonx]

The 9 units are 3 divisions broken down.

He took his time building up his forses in this area, 10 turns basicly before starting the offensive.

I have reserves set up as they should be. They have been working (33%ish), but none this turn.

[Seminole]

What is the initiative of the leader(s) in this sector?
What die(x) are initiative rolls conducted on? I actually don't see this clearly delineated in the manual, but assumed 10 since the leadership ratings are 1-9.

[Peltonx]

No idea on the die rolls ect.

[Peltonx]

Found the info someone sent me in a PM.

You need to structure your C&C and leaders to maximise initiative, and you need to rotate armoured units in a mix of regiments and divisions. Once I am on the defensive my standard army package is 2 infantry Korps of 4-5 divisions holding an 8-9 hex frontage, with a panzer korps of 4 divs in reserve split into 6 regiments and 2 divisions. This minimises the C&C penalties and maximises the chances of reserve activation.

With a 9 initiative leader in OKH and in 3 of the 4 Army groups, 8 initiative leaders in armies and 7 initiative leaders in PZ korps, you can trigger activations in 35%+ of battles and 80% of those will produce hold results, so 10+ hold results per turn from reserve activations is easily achieveable.

I ran 2 test 1942 campaigns against 115/95 AI for 100 turns i.e. to June1944, the first without reserves, the second with reserves maxed. The front lines in the 2nd test were 20 hexes east of the first test and Soviet casualties were 800k higher.

edit: Anyway, good luck with your 1943 offensive - I would just advise you to keep an eye on your german OOB - once your manpower goes below 3.4 million, offensive operations can tip the attrition balance against you. It nearly cost tarhunnas big time in his game.

[Peltonx]

Turn 87

23,000 armaments in pool

GHC OOB: 3,589,000 men
Net: + 23,000

This turn:
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—014————–11———03—–——-78%

Turn 85 to present trend
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—034————–28———06—–——-82%

All attacks in the AGN area. As new units arrive they are sent north.

AGC and AGS areas are quite for now. I am not moving any units north as I do not beleive they are needed. I have 2 lines of defence with the 2nd being 3 layers of forts. Armys are the basic defensive package. 9 infantry divisions with 3 or 4 panzer division set in reserve mode to counter 33% of all attacks.

8421 keeps up his amazing win %, shit higher then Germans in 41.

[Peltonx]

Turn 88

30,000 armaments in pool

GHC OOB: 3,634,000 men
Net: +45,000

SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—016————–14———02—–——-87%

Turn 85 to present trend
SHC Attacks———Wins—-Losses———%
——-—050————–42———08—–——-84%

Another good turn for 8421, 87% are wins.

6 more turns until mud hits and I can reset lines for summer. Most of 8421 wins at 2.6 to 2.2 to 1 to get retreats. Allot of good die rolls I guess.

I am not pulling any reserves from the rest of the front. All OKA reserves are headed to area in question and will arrive next turn and be set-up the following turn or 2. Hopefully reaction rolls will get to 35% at some point. Even a regiment would easly turn most of the retreats into a hold.

The area has bucketed the last 2 turns so I only have 2 divisions in reserve mode last 2 turns with zero reactions.

I will have 8 full divisons set up in reserve mode next turn and 13 the following turn, if I am still getting zero reactions per turn something is really really wrong with the game.