Finally, a chance to play this monstrosity against a human opponent - Mike. Part play and part test. As we're posting retroactively (up to T12 presently), no bugs have been encountered as yet. In this version, aside from hopefully having killed the bugs and implementing the Strategic Warfare Component from the Axis PO version - Axis replacements have been reduced by as much as 33% (mainly infantry, aircraft, and certain heavy weapons).
I'll start this with giving a snap shot of several areas, even if they won't be particularly active for a while.
The Soviet withdrew what they could from the most extreme positions of the Rhzev Salient. This is not altogether unexpected - I'd do the same, except more incrementally. A fast evacuation only leaves one army at risk. The question is whether to stop at the river live, or put forth a maximum effort to force a straight line from Rhzev to Kholm?
Another withdrawal from starting positions allows large portions of the Soviet 13th and 40th Armies to be cut-off beyond hope of rescue. The question here is whether to push forward to a line from Voronezh to Orel, or to push toward Yeletz for the sake of having of having rails all the way to the front line?
While there is a 25 VP bonus if the Soviets can take Kharkov by T6, the Soviets withdrew from their starting positions here, too. In the haste, large portions of the 6th and 57th Armies were sacrificed.
Here, again, the Soviets withdrew from most of their starting positions, but somewhat more methodically. Only a few units were sacrificed outright. Further, the Second Shock Army was spotted by Finnish aerial reconnaissance boarding trains heading south. While the Luftwaffe caught wind of their movements, too, 13th Panzer Division was the first to verify Rostov as its destination. It is also known that a full Russian Tank Army is in the immediate area, so the fighting here is likely to be intense.
Further south, in the Crimea - 11th Armee is contending with finishing the Siege of Sevastopol. A large portion of the Russian defenses of the eastern Crimea have already crossed the isthmus and were spotted railing up to, and somewhat beyond Rostov.
North Africa - If there's any place I am ambivalent about, it is North Africa. Every play test failed to dislodge the English from Tobruk. That's not saying it is not possible, only that I haven't been able to do it. That could be the consequence of being too conservative, it can be done - it's just how high of a price is the Axis player willing to pay for it?
That said, Tobruk is effectively the Key to North Africa. It is the only port whereby the Axis can receive reinforcements without the long, grueling road march from Tripoli. For the English, it matters, but not quite as much.
The Balkans
This is one of my favorite parts of the scenario. There are more partisans in these mountains than you can shake a stick at. A completely tragic section of history, but it's the one part that I feel modern day politicians and generals still do not understand.
My strategy here is going to clear two or three areas at a time while trying to minimize wear and tear on the fragile Italian, Croatian and Bulgarian units in the area. It's not so much that these units are fragile as they have low replacement rates, below average proficiency, and low supply proficiency. And, excepting air units, no Italian units reconstitute, most Croatian units won't either.
Mainland Europe
Fortress Europe. Every reserve infantry division available is being sent to provide coastal defenses in France, Holland, Denmark, Germany, Sicily and the Baltic States. That's what a lot of them were used for anyway. Otherwise, there's nothing to worry about here... yet, and hopefully not for a long-long time.
Norway, is also quiet.
Finland - I suspect the Karelian area of operations will turn into a stalemate. I'm keeping most of my garrison forces in Norway - Narvik is too important to risk. Only 25th Panzer Division and the Norway Army Engineer Group can be spared to make their way over to support any fight against Murmansk and Kandalaksha. Taking one or both will prevent (or at least delay) the arrival of a portion of the LendLease equipment arriving each month. Later a mountain infantry division will be available, otherwise the Karelian offensive is scrounging for anything "fit for the job" to reinforce this area.
T004 - May 29, 1942 - Army Group South (Sixth Army +)
The most active area by far, showing current dispositions and preliminary stop line for Phase I of Case Blue. In summary, Push to the Don. This could set the stage for a long, drawn out essentially static fight. While not very exciting, the Don provides the best defensive positions available.
The hardest nut to crack for the Axis. Only the German 15th & 21st Panzer and 90th Leichte Divisions are fully reliable. The 10th Panzer Division is also being sent down along with additional Italian infantry but mostly to keep Tripoli secured until Tobruk falls.
There is a very good chance that Tobruk will not fall.
Rostov is a fortress city and without it the whole Kuban and Caucasus Region becomes much more difficult to supply. SS LSSAH Division was able to puncture the Rostov northern defenses to take the bridge and advance across the river unopposed. 13th Panzer moves in to secure the bridge itself.
At this point, it is clear that several panzer korps will be completing their initial assignments and will be available as follow-up forces, first of which is the XLVIIIth Korps sporting Grossdeutchland and 24th Panzer.
The continued offensive by Fourth Panzer Army, elements of Second and Sixth, plus Hungarian 2nd Army hammered the Soviet lines pretty hard. Altogether, this threatens the destruction of large portions of the 9th, 28th, 37th and 38th Armies along with the 1 Guards and 3rd Cavalry Corps, 8th Guards Mechanized Corps and 11th Guards Tank Corps.
Tobruk is cut off, but is still receiving supplies by sea. Bardia is cut off. A large portion of the English 8th Army withdrew leaving only elements of the 1st and 2nd South African Divisions to hold Tobruk. As significant reinforcements have been reported to be en route by sea, units have halted at the Bardia Line. Supply is very low even at this distance from the supply head. The closer the English Eighth Army is to Egypt, the greater its advantage and the greater the disadvantage for the Axis.
Finland:
The Karelia and Finnish fronts are likely stalemated at this point, however, the rail from Kandalaksha to Murmansk is tenuously severed. 25th Panzer Division is en route, but will require several turns of rest before it will be ready for combat. Likely to be a lengthy wait.
Army Group North - Leningrad to Velikye Luki:
Probably the quietest area, overall. Forces are digging in and will remain in static for a few months yet.
Army Group Center:
The Rhzev Salient is in a far less tenuous position than it was. Both the Axis and Soviet forces benefit from a shortened defensive line. The decision to shorten the line further -- to a line parallel to Rhzev and Kholm -- has been postponed pending the outcome at Sevastopol and 11th Armee's follow-on objectives, concurrent with the progress of 17th Armee.
Army Group South:
As historically was the case, AGS is being divided into two operational groups. The first is led, in the main, by Sixth Armee. The second falls to the Seventeenth Armee. First and Fourth Panzer Armees, along with the Romanian 3rd Army, and Italian 8th Army will be supporting these two missions, but in different stages. The first stage is for Sixth Armee to secure a perimeter along the entire Don River, the Seventeeth has as its goal the Kuban Region and the Caucasus. Ultimately, the majority of the First and Fourth Panzer Armees will be dedicated to supporting the 17th Armee along with "other such assets that may be required."
Both groups have seen the majority of the fighting thus far and have fared well.
11th Army - Sevastopol:
At this point, two of the three outer perimeter defenses have been severely punished. They are still likely to hold for a few turns. Cnce the first collapses (likely the center), the others can be expected to give way much faster.
The Balkans:
A few partisan groups have been eliminated in their entirety, but there are a lot more to go. This area requires very careful attention to cooperation levels -- as there is no cooperation between Croatian, Italian, Bulgarian or Hungarian units. Combining a German infantry division with one of these allows for limited cooperation, but is still subject to some penalty. The Hungarian units are only contending with the two partisan groups closest to their borders. The Hungarian divisions are really about the best in the area aside from a handful of German divisions - which are pretty much 2nd rate units themselves. Reasonable progress is being made though.
North Africa:
The maps pretty show the situation for what it is - not much to add here except that I'm not optimistic about taking Tobruk.
The Luftwaffe and Allied Air:
Presently, the Luftwaffe is managing to hold onto about + 5 to +20 edge vs the Allied Air Forces (from 95 - 90 to 110 - 90, give or take). Supply and readiness are the key factors I'm watching, followed by aircraft type. I'll need to start withdrawing certain types of aircraft from combat exposure to let them reach full strength. Some aircraft types also go out of production - impacting their long-term usefulness. Casualties have exceeded replacement rates especially on bombers and non-German fighters. Allied attacks evaporated one air group, though it is expected to be reconstituted very soon.
Allied of non-military targets has been constrained to the Hamburg Oil Facilities - pushing the EEV to 5, but no further.
Numerous bridges, however, have been blown - in France and in Russia, which has constrained some troop movements and in some cases, supplies. All engineers, numerous headquarters and just about anything else not engaged but in a position to lend a helping hand are repairing the bridges. As yet, I've not launched any bridge blowing operations of my own - as the Soviet-held side of the rail net is better, has fewer bridges and the ones I need to hit are out of range. For now...
Skipping T007... Army Group South continues to be the center of attention. Sevastapol is still holding, so is Tobruk. Allied bridge bombings also continue.
While there are no outright rules regarding the usage of airborne units, I'll be observing some fairly tight provisions: 1) one drop per year per unit maximum, 2) within 8 hexes (120 km) of the nearest friendly unit. Frankly, I don't expect that airborne operations will be viable in 1943, at least outside the Balkans or Western Europe. The Italians still have three units available for air drops, and Germany - two.
Cutting the rail line out of Stalingrad was an imperative and while the Brandenberg Commandoes are small units, they can add a decent punch to any defensive stack - they are on Free Support; plus have decent recon ability. They don't reconstitute, however - so they are best deployed in cases involving minimal risk.
And Houston, we have a big problem. Up until the most recent turn received, Axis supply was 27 --
on T015, it jumped up to 77%.
I just went through the scenario dump file and isolated the problem to the DAK Axis Supply Point Reduction using the wrong trigger (Supply 1+ vs Supply Point 1). Where the supply point should be just 50% of regular -- the trigger effectively added +50 to axis supply.
I don't see a fix for this. The event is #849 - one of the last few and one of the last added.
My apologies to everyone -- I'll have a fix out later today (Friday).
Hey Mark,
what's your MRPB in this game? I've been playing with maximum rounds at 4 and that resulted with quite a few turn burns especially early in the game. I think I'll start my next game with MRPB=3.
"Aeroplanes are interesting toys but of no military value."
The initial version had maximum rounds per battle at 4; the most recent versions have reduced it to 3. On average, I've been getting 3 combat rounds per turn. Had one early turn ending in 14 turns, and have had as many as 6 combat rounds in a turn. Very important to watch formation cooperation levels which can contribute to turn burn. Hope that helps. Will have the update posted in a few hours...
Okay, rolling again. The first test got through Turn 15; we are now back at Turn 15. Rather than restart the AAR, I'll pick up from where I left off.
For the most part, everything is pretty close to being the same. Some objectives were taken somewhat faster than the first time around. Significantly fewer Soviet Armies were encircled owing to a faster withdrawal. The first phase of Case Blue started a bit northeast (vs. southeast) of Orel/Kursk - leading to two different Soviet Armies getting caught up in the advance.
My previous stop lines were "Orel-Kursk-Voronezh-Don River". This time, they are "Orel-Yeletz-Voronezh-Don River". Main interest here is a better supporting railhead for the front lines.
There are four significant differences as of Turn 7 compared to the first run;
A. Finnish-German forces take Kandalaksha.
B. Rostov-on-Don captured significantly earlier.
C. Tobruk captured for the first time in 20+ play tests.
D. The Soviet 8th Army evacuated from its positions near Leningrad.
At this point, I don't mind detailing my overall objectives for the Scenario.
#1 Prevent the Allies from establishing a presence on Continental Europe.
#2 The capture of Maikop, Grozny and Baku.
#3 With the fall of Kandalaksha, to go ahead and press for Murmansk.
#4 With the fall of Tobruk, keep the English Army bottled up in Egypt and hold Tunis for as long as possible.
#5 Methodically eliminate the Partisan forces in the Balkans
#6 Take Leningrad.
Anything above and beyond these objectives will be on a more measured, opportunistic basis.
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Justus has shown me his Axis turns up through Turn 141 under the original PBEM version -- without the strategic warfare component and with substantially higher Axis replacement rates - and it is very interesting. It's at a Draw and will likely end at a Draw, but the Allies have cleared North Africa, taken virtually all of Italy, the majority of France and are in the Balkans. The Soviets managed to tear up Army Group Center - but are about 3-4 months behind their historical objectives - at the gates of Kiev and along the Dnepr R., Neva, the Pripyet, etc.
Justus' game showed, however, that the Soviets and the Allies overall, could take a sound thrashing and another, and still be very much in the game. Turn 141 shows a wild difference compared to where things stood at Turn 90.
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In this game however, the Strategic Warfare component plays a very large variable, but Axis replacement rates are considerably lower. As yet, the Allies have not fought aggressively on the ground - force preservation appears to be the name of the game so far.
Will try to take things up to Turn 10... Starting first with the situation in North Africa.
The Axis start off with a forward supply point at Derna at 100%; this drops to 80% on Turn 6, then 50%, I think on Turn 12. With Tobruk in hand - 100% supply - the DAK is no longer fighting against the clock on supplies. It's more a question of how strong the Allied presence in Egypt is. I count 5 Infantry and 2 Armored Divisions -- plus 3 hexes where I strongly suspect there are units, but can't see them; and six more hexes where there might be units that I can't see. Add the English Navy and Air Force... and the simple fact that the Italian Army cannot reliable stand up against a heavy attack.
Left to my discretion vs. the Fuhrer's orders, my plan is... Censored.
Appropriate to note that it can take several turns for a unit "digging in" to reached (D)efend status, longer for (E)ntrenched or (F)ortified. Fortified zones like Tobruk automatically bring in a unit from Mobile to Defend in 1 turn. This makes for a conscious decision to play offensively or defensively - as in other scenarios one can attack with a unit and be guaranteed to make it back to (D)efend.
Taking the Suez will cut 4 Allied Supply Points for the time it is held, but -- far easier said than done.
