Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

October 15, 1942

Subs

ASW TFs harass but don't hit Gar near Toyohara, Truant near Groot Natoena and I-31 near Pearl Harbor.

Stingray duds on a DD escorting xAPs to Shanghai to pick up 17th Army. Twice!

Glens spot two TFs near Ndeni. An invasion in the works? Combined Fleet will be ready if so.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Lots of action. 15 B-17s hit Munda. Due to a snafu, we forgot to re-set CAP from yesterday's offensive raid on Ndeni and are caught napping, losing three Zeros, a Kate and two Nells. Tomorrow we will have both Zeros and Nicks up in strength. This must have been an extreme range raid from Luganville.

We had an AMC Jake snooping near Fiji that comes under attack from SBDs and is sunk. Ugh. We assume at first it's enemy CVs, but later come to believe it's a Marine squadron out of Suva.

Noumea's airfield goes up to level 7.

Southern Army

No change.

15th Army

Mr. Tojo strikes at Imphal! 42 Tojos sweep and get good results against a massive CAP of Hurricane IIc. The sweep is followed by an air raid escorted by Oscar ablative armor.

Total losses for all air battles are 15 Hurris, 9 Blenheim IVs, 7 Tojos and 4 Oscars. We only lose two pilots. Good, but unfortunately weather grounds 2/3rds of the IJAAF bombers that were supposed to strike. Imphal is a poor choice by CF IMHO as it lacks rail connectivity. We will try to hammer this base, but need a few days' rest first. In Tokyo, Cribtop HQ waits impatiently for more of these wonderful air superiority fighters to come online.

China

No change.

Combined Fleet

We are considering moving closer to Ndeni to jump the convoys spotted today, but will wait 24 hours as we don't want to reveal our CVs for no benefit.

We finally settle on detaching all CVLs to move within range of Ndeni. This hopefully catches the convoy but leaves CF guessing. With only CVLs spotted, he may assume only a Mini-KB is present rather than all our flight decks. Perhaps this will entice him forward into a trap.

Other

CF comments by e-mail: "I think this war of ours is about to heat up." Given that the monsoon ends on October 15, does this mean Burma? Cribtop Intel still predicts a deliberate two prong advance from both India and SWPAC.

[Cribtop]

October 16, 1942

Subs

DD Allen DCs I-19 near Ndeni. This is a disappointing beginning to the turn as it means the convoy, previously only one hex from Ndeni and inbound, has turned tail and is heading out of the danger zone. We may expose our CVLs for little gain. A shame, because this convoy is full of big xAPs and AKs.

Amberjack duds on an SC hunting her near Taihoku, Gar does the same on an SC near Toyohara.

4th Fleet

Bettys from TB try for the big troop convoy, but again at long range cannot locate the enemy.

SE Fleet

We are ready at Munda, but no enemy 4Es come.

Southern Army

We are deploying a large number of garrison units to occupy the second line near Timor, while one more is detailed to Java and one to Sabang. CF's window to attack weak defenses in this region has closed.

15th Army

A night raid on Imphal's damaged and over stacked airfield is scrubbed by weather. Our Tojo group needs a little more rest before we attack again by daylight.

Calcutta makes airfield level 8.

China

No change.

Combined Fleet

Zeros from the strike plane-less Ryujo sweep Ndeni and find 30+ P-39s. The battle is so-so, with 7 P-39s shot down at a cost of 5 Zeros (fewer pilots, though).

Given our knowledge that the main target is gone, we are pleased that no naval strikes are launched. It thus appears to CF that a lone CVL tried to help gain air superiority over Ndeni. We are pleasantly surprised to discover a total lack of air search from Ndeni by the enemy. The CVLs will pull back and rejoin MKB.

[Cribtop]

October 17, 1942

Subs

Tarpon duds on an escort of a supply convoy near Truk. Sculpin misses a big xAP ferrying the aforementioned garrison troops to Timor. This might be great misdirection as CF may assume we are up to something.

I-33 torpedoes and sinks a full troopship (a big xAK) just off Umnak Island. Banzai!

All our subs near Fiji are suddenly lit up to DL 10/10. Is this the result of enemy CV search planes? We also pick up heavy volume messages at Auckland, Sydney and Perth. Hmm...

Everything Else

A very quiet day. Sabang makes level 4 forts. Not much to report today. The quiet before the storm?

[Cribtop]

Well, I just had the distinct pleasure of reading the first four pages of Cuttlefish's AAR as he authorized me to do.

Great stuff! CF is the master author. I'm already hooked. Perhaps I should throw the war in order to get to read the rest faster. [:D] No worries, I'm too competitive for that.

Painful to read about my rather poorly executed slingshot of KB around the Eastern end of Hawaii. Not my best move as I didn't get outside of Catalina range first. Still, it was interesting to see that the move kept CF's carriers effectively pinned in place, preventing any shenanigans in 4th Fleet and SE Fleet AOs.

Today the war feels similar to that first week. I get the sense CF has all his USN eggs lurking in SWPAC, wanting to strike a blow but fearing - correctly - that the IJN is in the neighborhood.

[Cribtop]

Tonight's replay confirms enemy CVs in a TF at Suva. The game of cat and mouse continues. We will study the option of an 8 hex strike.

[obvert]

Mr. Tojo strikes at Imphal! 42 Tojos sweep and get good results against a massive CAP of Hurricane IIc. The sweep is followed by an air raid escorted by Oscar ablative armor.

I know this raid is a few days old but I'm curious about it. I've not gotten good results against hurris in sweeps, but in defense the Tojo does well. Not sure what to try.

[Cribtop]

They had numbers, avg EXP was pushing 78, and the CAP came up in dribs and drabs. I think all of that helped, but especially the numbers thing. Sweepers arrive en masse, CAP usually comes up over time. You can thus have numbers over time, killing or chasing off early arrivals and maintaining the numerical odds throughout the engagement. My only frustration is the ramp up to full production in Scenario 1, where you can't advance the Tojo IIa. This won't be the case for the IIc and the third generation planes.

[Cribtop]

OK Guys and Gal, I REALLY need advice.

Situation is I have every flight deck 22 hexes from Suva. Cribtop Intel estimates 90% chance that most or all enemy CVs are in Suva in an air combat TF. LBA and LBA CAP is minimal. IJN ships at 90% fuel state. KEY ASSUMPTION - enemy CV CAP will be halved in a base hex.

Option 1 - Flank move 14 hexes (even the Junyo et al can do that) to Range 8 and hit the enemy if he stays in Suva.

Option 2 - Move eight hexes closer. Still at 14 hexes. Then a mission speed run in to 8 hex range day after tomorrow.

Option 3 - Go home and drink Sake.

Thoughts urgently requested. This could be a major victory followed by a crushing pursuit. Then again, I hate to operate outside of IJN LBA range this late.

[princep01]

Crib, if you run in at flank speed, will you have enough "op points" to launch a full strike? I would not do that unless you are sure you have the op points to launch. If there is any doubt, then option 2. Option 3 is abhorent to the mind of the bushido....reject 3.

Frankly, I would definitely attack. You really do not risk much at 8 hexes, as he will likely have little to attack at that range. further, his strike will be with minimal, if any, escort. Definitely go for a victory here.

East Wind, Rain! Tora, Tora, Tora.

[Cribtop]

Thanks, Princep. I actually think I'd be ok for the day of launch. The day after could be bad if the DDs run low on gas and re-fuel. Thus, I tend to concur with Option 2. At 14 hexes out tomorrow I'll be hard to spot, and if he spots me I'll probably know it. If not, as you say, the strike itself risks little at range 8 due to his inability to counterstrike.

Plus, it would be damn cool and in keeping with the port attack war theme of this PBEM to date.

Still, more opinions humbly requested! I'm entering orders but have about one hour to go before I finish.

[Arnhem44]

I was thinking of how to put my opinion across in a witty yet succinct manner but to hell with witty.

オプション1
攻撃, 攻撃, 攻撃

[Cribtop]

I tried googling that and one of the hits was about A bomb development. So I guess that's two votes in favor of attack! [:D]

After looking again, there looks to be a "1" in those characters. So I think that's a vote for Option 1.

[Crackaces]

I am a very big fan of Hitorimusume Nigori Unfiltered Junmai Sake ... Really good with Toro and fresh wasabi ...[tuna fish belly] [:D]

I am a newbie as you know, but I do know the standard range of a PBY patrol is 16 hexes do you know if he has any PBY's in Suva and their direction because if you land at 14 hexes out that could be within his patrol zone ...if so you will announce your presence .. now you might get into the worse sitaution where as the CV's come hunting for you and you are in interlocking patrol arcs ..then you are totally dependent on your search arcs unless you also have interlocking patrol zones ...

Just a thought ..

[Cribtop]

And a good thought. I could fall back just a few hexes into a sea of black Japanese search lines if spotted (from TB, Tulagi and Munda). Hmmm. I may be able to work the whole move a few hexes back and still pull it off.

PS - however, an AMC I sent to snoop wasn't spotted and killed until moving within SBD range.

[Cribtop]

Orders sent for a modified Option 1. We will finish 16 hexes out of Suva tomorrow. Then, assuming everything still looks good, we will close to 8 hexes the next day and turn every CV and CVL afloat into the wind to LAUNCH!

[KenchiSulla]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

And a good thought. I could fall back just a few hexes into a sea of black Japanese search lines if spotted (from TB, Tulagi and Munda). Hmmm. I may be able to work the whole move a few hexes back and still pull it off.

PS - however, an AMC I sent to snoop wasn't spotted and killed until moving within SBD range.

It could be that it wasn't detected due to being a lone target... You have given your orders though, good hunting! Curious about the result

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

And a good thought. I could fall back just a few hexes into a sea of black Japanese search lines if spotted (from TB, Tulagi and Munda). Hmmm. I may be able to work the whole move a few hexes back and still pull it off.

PS - however, an AMC I sent to snoop wasn't spotted and killed until moving within SBD range.

It could be that it wasn't detected due to being a lone target... You have given your orders though, good hunting! Curious about the result

I am a newbie AFB .. but when I get "heavy radio traffic hex XXX,YYY" and it is within where I can seek out and contact with patrol platforms... I start putting up long range aircraft and concentrate a zone .. a full KB+ might provide such intellgence and spark such a move [;)] Thus I am thinking that the IJ should always assume that radio traffic has given them away or worse "CV Kaga is moving to .." and that PBY's/4E's will come looking and if they don't that is gravy [8D] As it is your plan assumes this worse possible option .. good luck and good hunting ..

[Cribtop]

Yeah, probably the worst downside is a spotting tomorrow followed by KB retiring back into safer waters. The upside, however, is large enough to be worth the risk, IMHO. I don't like to reveal my CVs for no good reason, but that is somewhat mitigated given that I know where his CVs are.

[Cribtop]

So, Cribtop, you ask. Where the hell are you!?

Well, we successfully moved into our new house in the Hill Country. It's awesome, except for the little wiring error that meant you couldn't get wifi set up until the Saturday after we moved. Crap!

I'll be up and running again tomorrow. Then I'll send a long overdue turn to CF and catch up on a few days of the war over the weekend. This should be the last of the move related delays.

PS - My wife served everyone bad scones this morning. I was in a hurry to get to work and passed on them. I come home to Barfapalooza '12. Only me and my 1 year old daughter and the dogs are ok. The rest of the house is in "Jim Bowie" mode. Quite the party at Cribtop HQ tonight, let me tell you. [8|]

[Arnhem44]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I tried googling that and one of the hits was about A bomb development. So I guess that's two votes in favor of attack! [:D]

After looking again, there looks to be a "1" in those characters. So I think that's a vote for Option 1.

Google Translate was my friend for that one. It was

Option 1
Attack, Attack, Attack :p