The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm very open to any suggestions.

With Torsten being so aggressive I'd suggest Singkawang then Billiton, rather than worry about Kuching or Miri first. I'd pressure him into facing your LBA as often as possible as you advance. I think this will provide a number of benefits. You'll get wind of his SCTF's before they can hurt you, they'll risk torpedo attacks from your Betty's/Nell's keeping them away from your follow up shipping up and you'll be in a position to interdict any posible buildup at Palembang or around Batavia. I'd focus on getting him to react to your dispositions rather than allow him time to build anything up. Time is the only thing that allows him to train up the Dutch or move forces into place before you are ready, don't give him that time. I think he'll welcome a standard Japanese advance, it's time to think outside the box. Don't let losing the three carriers force you into a conservative approach. I'd go after him...hard. Just my thoughts.

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]4th Fleet[/font]
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Getting Tarawa seems to be a lucky stroke. I'll hang on for a bit before any more islands are taken down here. I like to get Canton, but that might be out of the question now. Tabiteuea is another I'd like to get to, but there will be no KB to support, so I'll have to be sneaky. I'll have to go for Makin in a hurry. The other option is to hit HIS reinforcements of these islands. Some subs will be placed strategically and I may bring the AMCs around here, most likely to get crushed by something better.

Not having all of the Gilberts is distressing, but could lead to a lot of early action as well if he builds up bases in the area and extends to the West quickly. I'll have to think about places like Ponape, Kusai and Nauru to build roadblocks. At least if I can get Nauru.

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[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Research and Development[/font]
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While some of the choices here were made before the KB catastrophe, many have been supplemented during the last turn. I intentionally leave quite a few set to not repair so that I'll have some for later additions.

The Tojo has been bumped up a lot, as have the A6M family (Rufes leading to A6M5 and A6M3 leading to 3a). I added a few N1K1 and an extra Helen and Judy factory.

What else should I focus on here? Any glaring holes in the research for 43 especially? I have to focus mostly on the now and near future, and IJNAF LBA will be key since I have the CV groups coming back soon.

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[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

It looks like some Chinese units are feeling frisky. Ichang is toast, as all KMT troops in the area are converging. We've been getting out and should make it before an attack is made.

A Corps between Changsha and Wuchang is heading for Kiukiang. Two divisions are moving to intercept. I'll start bombing this unit. Not sure what he's up to here.

Also, just to the South around Nanchang a lot of units are moving. Again, I'm not too concerned. I'll see where they try to go and then start bombing and moving troops if I need to. I'm happy for him to go on the offensive here. It means he'll use more supply and expose troops. If he's just heading for good defensive positions, then I'll try to root him out quickly before forts are built. I'm struggling for PPs to buy anything while buying back 3 CVs worth of air groups. Changing up to 2E bombers will take a while.

Most IJA units will rest until their moral and disablements improve.

How about a quick amphibious invasion at Wenchow? Use the 33rd or 21st Division's. Preventing a build up here and denying that supply source to the Chinese early will help in the long run, and get your coastal concerns taken care of much more quickly. Then you can focus on countering his apparent moves around Nanchang and Wuchang.

I'd actually have reinforced Ichang from the get go with troops from Hankow and Wuchang. It's risky, but stopping the standard Chinese tactic of grabbing Ichang can cause them problems. I wouldn't fear any early Chinese offensive. Bomb to slow/wear them down and then maneuver around to grab the good defensive terrain before they can utilize it.

[SqzMyLemon]

I notice you have a number of airframes concentrated in the same cities. Don't know that it matters at this stage of course, but I'd fear later in the war having production of some airframes at risk simply because the factories are all located at the same base. I try and disperse important airframes around more bases to avoid wholesale destruction later on from being too concentrated.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm very open to any suggestions.

With Torsten being so aggressive I'd suggest Singkawang then Billiton, rather than worry about Kuching or Miri first. I'd pressure him into facing your LBA as often as possible as you advance. I think this will provide a number of benefits. You'll get wind of his SCTF's before they can hurt you, they'll risk torpedo attacks from your Betty's/Nell's keeping them away from your follow up shipping up and you'll be in a position to interdict any posible buildup at Palembang or around Batavia. I'd focus on getting him to react to your dispositions rather than allow him time to build anything up. Time is the only thing that allows him to train up the Dutch or move forces into place before you are ready, don't give him that time. I think he'll welcome a standard Japanese advance, it's time to think outside the box. Don't let losing the three carriers force you into a conservative approach. I'd go after him...hard. Just my thoughts.

I like your thinking here. Billiton is possible. Really Pontiniak is to test the waters for the Palembang op. Billiton would do the same but risk more and potentially offer more. I could also paradrop Billiton if I can get a paraunit over here in time, risking little. The only thing about this base is that it has no airfield to start. I want Miri for the field, and Jesselton for the other side of Borneo to cover my back.

Kuching, Singkawang and Pontiniak all offer fields ready to go. I'll look through the stuff at Saigon, Cam Rahn and Samah to start allocated units and there should be enough for all of these ops. The question is how much will I lose if I stick my neck out to early?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

It looks like some Chinese units are feeling frisky. Ichang is toast, as all KMT troops in the area are converging. We've been getting out and should make it before an attack is made.

A Corps between Changsha and Wuchang is heading for Kiukiang. Two divisions are moving to intercept. I'll start bombing this unit. Not sure what he's up to here.

Also, just to the South around Nanchang a lot of units are moving. Again, I'm not too concerned. I'll see where they try to go and then start bombing and moving troops if I need to. I'm happy for him to go on the offensive here. It means he'll use more supply and expose troops. If he's just heading for good defensive positions, then I'll try to root him out quickly before forts are built. I'm struggling for PPs to buy anything while buying back 3 CVs worth of air groups. Changing up to 2E bombers will take a while.

Most IJA units will rest until their moral and disablements improve.

How about a quick amphibious invasion at Wenchow? Use the 33rd or 21st Division's. Preventing a build up here and denying that supply source to the Chinese early will help in the long run, and get your coastal concerns taken care of much more quickly. Then you can focus on countering his apparent moves around Nanchang and Wuchang.

I'd actually have reinforced Ichang from the get go with troops from Hankow and Wuchang. It's risky, but stopping the standard Chinese tactic of grabbing Ichang can cause them problems. I wouldn't fear any early Chinese offensive. Bomb to slow/wear them down and then maneuver around to grab the good defensive terrain before they can utilize it.

Now that I'm more comfortable with the timing and force structure needed for Malaya, this sounds like a great idea. I hadn't considered it. Sounds like a plan to me. I might put two divisions in there for a week or two, get something permanent over, then load back up and head South. That place can be a sore spot if left to fester.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I notice you have a number of airframes concentrated in the same cities. Don't know that it matters at this stage of course, but I'd fear later in the war having production of some airframes at risk simply because the factories are all located at the same base. I try and disperse important airframes around more bases to avoid wholesale destruction later on from being too concentrated.

If I make it to a point where bombing the HI is an issue, I'll be fairly ecstatic. Of course I guess that could happen in 43-44 if I really blow this! [:)] At this point I can't do anything about these but as I add some I guess it is a good idea to spread them around.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

The question is how much will I lose if I stick my neck out to early?

Less then if you let him build up? [:D]

In my second PBEM, I'm now playing the Allies. My opponent suggested I try the Allies to get a sense of how weak they are at start, he thought it would make me a better Japanese player. I tend to agree. In my own experience, I wouldn't sweat the Allied strength in the DEI too much. Really the only force that can cause you trouble are the American CV's. You'll take your lumps in surface engagements in the DEI, but I'm sure that establishing your perimeter as quickly as possible will offset this and your CV losses. Since it's unlikely you'll be going out too far now, I'd risk more to prevent any chance of an Allied buildup he can support with his CV's too close to anything important.

I agree about Billiton, no airfield yet, but I'd get started on it right away. If he ends up concerned over it, it could prevent him hitting you where you don't want him to? I'm trying to put myself in your shoes, losing three CV's early how would I react? I think I'd be aggressive, because he'll probably expect you to be a little timid now and that may lead to overconfidence on his part. You may catch him trying to get cute and if you support yourself adequately I see him getting whacked a few times. You're surface forces are a real strength, I'd use them now while I can and welcome any chance of nailing his inferior forces.

I just believe now is not the time to get conservative, it does nothing but help your opponent turn a tactical victory at PH into a strategic one by slowing you down even further by being risk adverse.

[obvert]

I hear you. I will not be conservative. I just don't want a TF full of troops to get skewered by Stringbags and push me back another 2-3 weeks. Once I have CAP and the forces are in the area, I'll push forward. Better to be aggressive with good preparation than to start flinging things out everywhere. I'm also interested to see if he'll get itchy waiting for the action and take some risks himself. We've only played what, 3 turns? There is a lot of time to get things moving.

[ny59giants]

R&D Airframes

The Nick "B" model is not worth the efforts from what I know.

I'm producing the Norm FP to replace the Jakes that I'm using to cover naval search areas where I'm short of Emilys. Yes, the service rating is 3, but the extended range is 15 hexes vs 10 for the Jake (50% search, 20% training, 20% rest). I rotated most, but not all of my non-restricted FPs through my CS for re-sizing. The second FP group comes off all my CA/BB for this.

Everything else looks good. [:)]

I need to look at my R&D efforts as Japan vs Mike S using Reluctant Admiral. I've done through mid-43, but need to look at some of the '44 and beyond airframes.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I hear you. I will not be conservative. I just don't want a TF full of troops to get skewered by Stringbags and push me back another 2-3 weeks. Once I have CAP and the forces are in the area, I'll push forward. Better to be aggressive with good preparation than to start flinging things out everywhere. I'm also interested to see if he'll get itchy waiting for the action and take some risks himself. We've only played what, 3 turns? There is a lot of time to get things moving.

Looking at my posts I see your point. I didn't mean them to come across as they have. Of course it's still early, establish your LBA and air cover, that's what I would do to. I wouldn't move substantial forces forward until I had taken care of the enemy air threat as well. LBA power will be key for you, but I'd establish it as quickly and as far forward as possible. The thing I forgot to mention is pushing forward fast has it's own risks as well. One threat is any forward airbase you establish can be quickly neutralized by Allied bombardment missions. It's all well and good to grab a forward airbase, but if it gets trashed and you can't support it, what good is it?

I agree totally, be aggressive, but with your ducks in order and able to counter anything he throws at you. Sorry if my posts came out proclaiming a dire sense of urgency, the written word can't always convey the spirit meant behind them. Well, if I was a better writer they could! [:D]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

R&D Airframes

The Nick "B" model is not worth the efforts from what I know.

I'm producing the Norm FP to replace the Jakes that I'm using to cover naval search areas where I'm short of Emilys. Yes, the service rating is 3, but the extended range is 15 hexes vs 10 for the Jake (50% search, 20% training, 20% rest). I rotated most, but not all of my non-restricted FPs through my CS for re-sizing. The second FP group comes off all my CA/BB for this.

Everything else looks good. [:)]

I need to look at my R&D efforts as Japan vs Mike S using Reluctant Admiral. I've done through mid-43, but need to look at some of the '44 and beyond airframes.

Thanks. I've been wondering about the Norm. A ways off but that extra distance would be good if it flies often enough.

The Nick Ki-45 KAIb is off and I won't research it. I am just leaving that spot open, with quite a few others, to add something on to later.

I need to get the new tracker going so it can tell me roughly how long all of these planes will take to research based on what I've got here, then figure out if I need more in one spot or another. But if anyone just has the experience to know, please chime in.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: obvert

I hear you. I will not be conservative. I just don't want a TF full of troops to get skewered by Stringbags and push me back another 2-3 weeks. Once I have CAP and the forces are in the area, I'll push forward. Better to be aggressive with good preparation than to start flinging things out everywhere. I'm also interested to see if he'll get itchy waiting for the action and take some risks himself. We've only played what, 3 turns? There is a lot of time to get things moving.

Looking at my posts I see your point. I didn't mean them to come across as they have. Of course it's still early, establish your LBA and air cover, that's what I would do to. I wouldn't move substantial forces forward until I had taken care of the enemy air threat as well. LBA power will be key for you, but I'd establish it as quickly and as far forward as possible. The thing I forgot to mention is pushing forward fast has it's own risks as well. One threat is any forward airbase you establish can be quickly neutralized by Allied bombardment missions. It's all well and good to grab a forward airbase, but if it gets trashed and you can't support it, what good is it?

I agree totally, be aggressive, but with your ducks in order and able to counter anything he throws at you. Sorry if my posts came out proclaiming a dire sense of urgency, the written word can't always convey the spirit meant behind them. Well, if I was a better writer they could! [:D]

No problem. I do need to stay on my toes, and you've offered some great thoughts and ideas. It is urgent, but it's like baseball. You still have to wait for the right pitch! [;)]

[ny59giants]

I was looking at the number of Rufe and Zero factories, but I hope your have three that can move ahead to the next model (3 x 30) once fully repaired and with over 500 engines stockpiled, then you will get 4 points per day and every 25 days that airframe will move forward a month.

You will have some current production factories to use as the Helen is my main Army bomber.

I'm in mid-43 and have gone back to repair some Resource centers. I don't have enough stockpiled in Japan for the day when I'm cut off from the SRA. Oil and fuel, I have plenty of.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I'm in mid-43 and have gone back to repair some Resource centers.

Wow. I have never had that problem ... Do you have an AAR on this game? Would like to see how you got to where you are ...

[ny59giants]

Per Tracker, I have less than 100 days worth on Honshu. You can get some from nearby, but if that is interrupted, I'm having to shut down HI early as you cannot shut down LI.

[PaxMondo]

Ahh, you've broken up the HI in Tracker. So just for the HI you produce about 200K/day and you are using about 250K/day. You can easily bring that in from Kor/Man/Chi. You shouldn't have to shut down anything ....

EDIT: or if this is after you have shut down your HI factories in the HI, wow. How many HI did you build? [;)]

[JocMeister]

Do you know where Force Z is? How do you plan on covering the landings? Strong SCTF or LBA/MKB or both? Given his agressive stance I think an intervension of your landings are very likely. How many BBs do you have available? 4?

Can´t help you on the industry stuff I´m afraid. It just looks like gibberish to me![:D]

[koniu]

ORIGINAL: obvert
I need to get the new tracker going so it can tell me roughly how long all of these planes will take to research based on what I've got here, then figure out if I need more in one spot or another. But if anyone just has the experience to know, please chime in.

Do you have any problems with running tracker. For me upgrade was only copy and paste.
1.9.x is nice. Lots of good new options.