41-45 GC AAR notenome (sov) vs 821Bobo (axis) no 821 past first page.

[Flaviusx]

It's due to both mud and the fact that Bryansk Front is all over his supply lines. I don't see him taking Moscow, either, he's going to need the snow turns just to clean up his logistical mess before the blizzard, and he won't be able to get a lot of digging done.

And he's got a couple of outright surrounded panzer divisions, too, by Voronezh. Those guys may be dead. All in all, it's fairly ugly. If he had cleaned up his rear before hitting mud, he'd be in decent shape, but the failure to do this has plainly blown up in his face.

[notenome]

All true Flav, but I really want this game to continue, but as I told 821, I'll respect his decision either way.

[Flaviusx]

I don't think it's a game killer, he's got a ton of real estate in 1941 and the Red Army is not in brilliant shape, but he's in for a rough winter. It's kind of amazing what happened here in the last 4 turns. You were in real trouble, but he threw away his advantage. A remarkable turn in events.

[notenome]

Considering that the mud season's effects caught 821 well by surprise, I proposed a mud ceasefire. 821 agreed to this and said he'll move the panzers off Voronezh so I can evacuate the city. Whilst this means those isolated panzer puppies get to live, it also means the Tula-Orel pocket will stay alive until snow.

Krieg ohne Hass.

[hfarrish]

A good way to go - just agreed to do this in a similar early war situation in one of my games; no sense in tossing a decent game b/c of something like this.

[Tarhunnas]

Well, yes, but 821 did put his own snout into the meat grinder so to speak. Is this the first time 821 encounters mud?

[Flaviusx]

Truly, it isn't the mud by itself that's the problem here, Tarhunnas, although I admit that the turn 17 moves were extremely rash considering that mud was coming. He should have concentrated his forces on eliminating his problem spots in the rear and making absolutely sure the pocket couldn't be reopened -- sending off an entire panzer corps in the direction of Voronezh was a major error given the timing. Maybe he just forgot that turn 18 is guaranteed mud, even with random weather. Or perhaps this was a case of victory disease.

Anyways, a slight mulligan here for the Axis is a reasonable enough request. Nobody wants to see a premature ending to the game due to a momentary brain fart. The game was interesting and competitive right up to this point. But it does go to show you how a couple of poorly thought out turns at the wrong time can blow up on you. You have to be very careful going into weather changes and account for them, they are potential game changers.

[notenome]

821 is an experienced and extremely competent player. He has given me hell the entire time and only in the few turns have I been able to threaten his initiative. The reason he sent his panzers was Voronezh wasn't evacuated, so he wanted to nudge it in an effort to hold my industry, which is something a lot of players do, industry raids. Unfortunately he did it before mud and it blew up in his face. That said, how many Axis players can really say they wouldn't risk it to destroy (or at least hold) industry, especially Voronezh? As for the pockets, well thats kind of my MO, using pockets too delay the advance by continuosly reopening them. By what I gather from the site and other AARs, most Soviet players (Tarhaunnas, Flav excluded) play a more passive defensive game, which isn't my style, so its easy for an Axis player to fall into bad habits (regiments, regiments, regiments I love me some regiments).

With that said I need to start preparing for the blizzard. What's the wise play here? Send low morale inf to the rear to refit? I really don't want to risk pulling my siberians or guards from the line, as they single handedly won the battle of Moscow.

[randallw]

People like to take risks like Guderian. [;)]

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: notenome
That said, how many Axis players can really say they wouldn't risk it to destroy (or at least hold) industry, especially Voronezh?

Indeed, I have done exactly the same thing as Axis, twice, lost my best divisions surrendered. I learnt from it and continued the games.

[timmyab]

The isolation of his units here is entirely predictable.He's probably going to lose two panzer divisions and the Tula-Orel pocket may unravel, but it's no reason to resign and if anything I'd still have him in front.More like an interesting challenge in limiting the damage I'd say.

[Flaviusx]

No doubt he's played well up until the last few turns. I really did think you were going to lose Moscow.

Factory raiding is bad strategy, generally speaking, and especially when you have a score of divisions that have evaded pocketing 3 turns in a row and you are on the eve of mud. A suicide raid on Moscow I can understand. A suicide raid on Voronezh instead of a quarter million guys in a loose pocket? Not so much.

[notenome]

has anyone done the math on what an Armament point is worth in terms of a 41-45 GC? Its easy to figure out tank production bc you just multiply the figures per the number of turns, but the worth of an Armament point is quite the mystery to me.

[Flaviusx]

You want enough of them to avoid running into production shortages. If you lose 50 or less, you're good to go. (There may be a temporary shortfall during the winter.) If you lose 100 or more, you're in trouble. Anything in between means 42 is going to be rough, but as the multiplier increases, you'll get caught up down the line.

[notenome]

oh I've lost at most 10 or 15 armament points, if that. The only major blow was the aircraft factory at Taganrog that I forgot to evacuate. What I was wondering more about is how much an axis division is worth in terms of armament points. So lets say that 10 armament points provide enough for 10 divisions over the course of the GC, then sacrificing 1 division in a smash and grab would be worth it, I suppose. I'm just curios how the math works out.

[Flaviusx]

I don't think this is the way to calculate it, myself. Any amount of armament point losses less than that needed to result in a production shortfall are worth effectively nothing. You'll be running major surpluses by spring of 42 from what it sounds like, once the evacuated factories come back on line and the multiplier kicks in. This would still be the case if you lost 10 more armament points. That's simply not enough to stress your production situation. You have to hit a certain threshold in losses here for it to be meaningful.

If anything, I expect that manpower will be your limiting factor here. He's taken a lot of population centers. You'll be struggling to get much more than 100k men/turn in 1942, and that may sound like a lot, but it's not.

[notenome]

Very true Flav manpower will probably be a constraint, though I hope to take some of those population centers back in the winter.

[gingerbread]

There is a rather large (~700k ARM) expense beginning July '42 when the standard Soviet Rifle Squad is upgraded, but with 350-ish ARM factories it should not crater your pool.

[notenome]

Nothing much to report on the mud turn due to the ceasefire, so I give you:

The New -NEW!- Red Army Dashkas!

Feeling down? Getting routed more often than you'd like? Than fear no more, because for the price of a lifetime of traumatic memories suffered on the front you, yes you comrade, can buy a 2 way ticket to the Red Army Dashkas were our untrained commissar staff will service your every need until your morale reaches 40, at which point its back to the Front, soldier. Red Army Dashkas: It beats getting shot, but not by much.

[notenome]

Well 821 just sent me a pic of the logistics weather segment. This next turn is going to be crazy.



I'm guessing maybe an assault on Sevsastopol, a rescue/pullback of the encircled panzers near Voronezh. I have no clue what he'll do with Moscow, blizzard and all. Does a random weather blizzard in October still get the first winter penalties/bonuses?