War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

First a shot of the East China Sea raid to tickle your fancy....

[Canoerebel]

Strategic situation 1/17/42.

My best guess at this point is that Steve is focusing on taking NoPac bases, will build them heavily, will switch off and invade Hawaii, and has some major intentions in Oz.

To counter this, the Allies are concentrating air defenses in CONUS, will leave Hawaii to fend for itself, are reinforcing Oz iwth aircraft and ground troops, and will try to apply pressure, most likely in the Bay of Bengal region.

[John 3rd]

The cost of playing in the Aleutians this early in dead winter is terrible on ships. It is a very strange move but we'll see what happens.

[jeffk3510]

I am very curious to see what your rading TF will do...could you post a screen shot of the makeup of the force?

Thanks!

[GreyJoy]

That's exactly what i wanted CR! Customer care [:D]
 
That position is very very interesting...there must be hundreds of ships moving around in those waters in Jan 42... Bombing a port might not be the best idea cause without any spotter and with a DL = 0 you may find yourself with nothing but a jar of flies...i'd go for a bold raid on mutiple targets (C)
 
I also agree with John...should be very very expensive to invade NOPAC during winter...i remember i repulsed a 4 division invasions with only a reinforced canadian Bde...

[Canoerebel]

The TF that penetrated into the East China Sea consists of CL Detroit and five Mahan-class DDs.  It's amazing the TF hasn't bumped into an enemy TF of some kind while transiting these waters.

[Canoerebel]

It's costly to invade Arctic regions in winter time (mainly Aleutians and Kuriles), but there's no penalty for invading NoPac bases south of the Artcic winter weather line.  So the bases around Juneau and to the south haven't imposed a landing penalty on Steve, but the Allied troops have fought well due to the forest terrain bonus.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The TF that penetrated into the East China Sea consists of CL Detroit and five Mahan-class DDs.  It's amazing the TF hasn't bumped into an enemy TF of some kind while transiting these waters.

The CL Detroit has been one of my favourite ships...She, along with her sisters of her class, sustained alone my Solomons campaign during 1943/44...unvaluable!

Does she has any kind of seaplane aboard? If so, are you keeping it down in order not to get spotted?

[Canoerebel]

1/18/42
 
NoPac:  No sign of the KB.  More SigInt of various IJ support troops bound for some of the bases taken (Steve is bringing in plenty of engineers, HQ units, etc., so he intends to make serious use of his bases).
 
CenPac:  The Detroit TF moves east, right through Amami Shima, evades detection entirely, and once again manages not to bump into any enemy TFs.  Detroit will proceed to a point south of Iwo Jima before breaking north.  The other combat TF also evaded detection and is retiring east along New Guinea's north coast.
 
Oz:  Queen Elizabeth delivered part of 27th USA Div. to Melbourne about a week ago, joined shortly therafter by a US Amry tank unit.  A Brit brigade is inbound to Oz.  Several USAAF fighter squadrons are enroute to Oz from Capetown.
 
Cocos Island:  An Indian CD unit is inboud, with Force Z, two American CVs and an RN CV providing nearby support.  I need to get engineers here.
 
Fortress Sabang?:  Still not sure about this option, though I'm interested in the possibilities.  An Oz division is aboard ship inbound to Colombo from Aden.  I might send her on to Sumatra if things still look promising in about a week.  An Indian CD unit is inbound to Port Blair from Madras.
 
Burma:  I think Japan has enough now to take Rangoon.
 
China: Things have quieted down a bit.  The Allies have 3,500 AV at Nankang, with another 1,200 in the forest hex to the rear, protecting the road to Sian.  Japan has 20 more more units, mainly in the two hexes to the north of Nankang.  I'm waiting to see if these troops move on Nankang.

[GreyJoy]

Can you ID what kind of major units he has committed to NOPAC? The idea of Fortress Sabang can, imho, be developped only if he's really heavily committed to somewhere else...cause, be sure of that, as soon as he realizes that you're reinforcing a place so close to his precious oilfields, he's gonna send everything he has against you...

[Canoerebel]

I can identify alot of support units (engineers, HQ, AA) and small infantry units committed in NoPac.  No major ground units (except Guards Brigade) have been committed up here yet.  It's clear Steve intends to hold and build the bases he's taken (lots of victory points to be gained by holding bases like Anchorage). 
 
I'm still guessing that he plans a strategic bombing campaign vs. American industrial targets.  I do not think he's going to invade ConUS.
 
I think there's a fair chance he will invade Hawaii.  That would be synergistic with his current deployment.  IE, it's easy to switch KB from NoPac to CenPac to handle such an operation.
 
I think there's also a decent chance Steve will invade Oz, probably in order to engage in a strat bombing campaign there.  He can handle that invasion mainly through LBA if he proceeds methodically.
 
Right now, Steve has two divisions at Clark Field.  A third was roughed up and withdraw.  A fourth (Imperial Guards) was in Malaya, but recent SigInt reports it aboard transports bound for Lingayen.  I'm waiting to see if it shows up.  The SigInt could be disinformation.
 
This represents my current evaluation of what's going on, though by no means am I convinced this is what's happening.  But if Steve does commit to NoPac plus Hawaii and/or Oz long-term, the Allies will definately focus on the Bay of Bengal region.
 
Japan can go wherever it wants - but not everywhere it wants - through late summer or early autumn of 1942.  After that, the Allies are strong enough to begin to contest or go on the offensive, within reason.  So, right now, I'm looking at perhaps an eight month window of Japanese aggression.  While it's only January 18, 1942, that's late enough that Steve needs to be making some major progress soon.  That means the situation should come into better focus in coming weeks.
 

[Canoerebel]

1/19/42
 
NoPac:  No sign of KB.  No major developments.
 
CenPac:  Detroit TF found Mini KB just south of Iwo Jima.  Mini KB launches dozens of Kates and Vals, which sink Detroit and two DDs, damaging a third DD.  The three remaining DDs will disperse.  Is it worth it?  Mini KB was recalled from the Timor region for an unknown period to handle this situation.  She would have helped Steve expand in the timor region.  So I think this was a net gain for the Allies, but that's an evaluation run through an active PR department.
 
Oz:  Big Betty raid on Darwin damages several ships including AS Platypus.
 
DEI:  Allied ships and plans still in motion.  An IJN sub patroling the Nicobars damages an xAP toting part of the Indian CD unit to Port Blair.

[jeffk3510]

Those Omaha class CLs with a good mix of DDs are excellent raiding TFs ( as you're well aware)... and they're fast enough to evade a lot of sky dropped material..

[Capt. Harlock]

Those Omaha class CLs with a good mix of DDs are excellent raiding TFs ( as you're well aware)... and they're fast enough to evade a lot of sky dropped material..

But when it comes to on-board AAA -- they stink.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I haven't decided to do it yet, but if I did the Allies would have Port Blair, Cocos, some of the small islands around Sabang, and then on western Sumatra I'd build up Sabang and at least one port to the east along the north coast.

If Steve's airforce is truly committed to the West Coast USA in a long, major operation, he's going to have holes in other regions.  I've got to find and exploit those.  Sabang is one possibility.

Siboret island is a great grab. Level 9 airfield in range of all sorts of oil. However, you really got to have LSTs to support it so I would not do it before 1943. Quite frankly, if KB is operating elsewhere, I would just raid with my carriers. I doubt he is very strong at the DEI and the Allied carriers can suppress any opposition and take out some serious oil. You got to take some other points as well. Sabang is important because it has a port but every thing else along the West Coast of Sumatra has very little to offer in the way of ports. Quite frankly you had better move a lot of LSTs and AKs to India if you plan on seizing and using these bases. I found out the hard way. You will need at least 30-40 LSTs to resupply the small port bases in a major offensive action.

Actually, I found that LSTs in India are a must regardless of your plans.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

CenPac:  Detroit TF found Mini KB just south of Iwo Jima.  Mini KB launches dozens of Kates and Vals, which sink Detroit and two DDs, damaging a third DD.  The three remaining DDs will disperse.  Is it worth it?  Mini KB was recalled from the Timor region for an unknown period to handle this situation.  She would have helped Steve expand in the timor region.  So I think this was a net gain for the Allies, but that's an evaluation run through an active PR department.

Maybe.....but lots of raiding by the Allies can have questionable results early. Case in Point: My game vs. your opponent, PanzerJaeger Hortlund.

He's been a bit more aggressive, but he's lost ENTERPRISE and LEXINGTON to raiding, for no CVs sunk in return. A counter to raiders is Divebombers; they will take out any DD pretty quickly. He has sunk a pile of transports, but in Scen 2 or other enhanced, it doesn't matter. Unless you kill an entire ground unit, the transports aren't worth much, and the ground unit can be rebuilt from fragment.

He has given me fits at times, no question...and I've had to divert some convoys for a couple days, but I haven't diverted warships, they participate if they happen to be there...which is maybe what happened here. There is no way Mini-KB could have really reacted that fast, he probably had it in Japan for whatever reason, and your bad luck that it was there and could deal with your TF easily.

I haven't counted, PzjH has slaughtered LOTS of my transports and escorts, but I don't care ultimately. It's all about big ships, and keeping up the timetable. Speed is of the essence for the IJN, transports be damned. I would trade 100 AKs to get Singapore 30 days earlier, that's how important speed is IMO.

You're effectively holding him up for reasons other than raiders; Japanese should have Palembang and Ambon cleared in December, and Koepang/Balikpapan/Kalidjat in early January. The DEI air/sea campaign should be over by Jan 15th at the latest, with just mop-up after that.

That's my 2 yen anyway.......

[Canoerebel]

I think my raiding did prompt Steve to send the Mini KB from the Ceram Sea up to Iwo Jima.  I think it's been absent from the DEI at least a week, maybe two.  If I'm right, that's probably stopped him from probing deeper to eliminate the little Allied stronghold at Koepang.  Again, if I'm right, the loss of Detroit and three or four or five DDs was well worth it.  As you say, Q-Ball, speed is everything - at least in 1942.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think my raiding did prompt Steve to send the Mini KB from the Ceram Sea up to Iwo Jima.  I think it's been absent from the DEI at least a week, maybe two.  If I'm right, that's probably stopped him from probing deeper to eliminate the little Allied stronghold at Koepang.  Again, if I'm right, the loss of Detroit and three or four or five DDs was well worth it.  As you say, Q-Ball, speed is everything - at least in 1942.

To borrow a pic posted on Cap Mandrake's AAR:

[Canoerebel]

1/20/42
 
Luzon:  Eight Japanese divisions are at Clark Field and shock attack, getting a 1:1 and dropping forts to zero.  I'm going to bring forward 200 AV from Bataan and hope Japan has to hold off for three or four days before attacking again.  With basically the entire Japanese army committed here, every day the Allies can hold buys respite for Singers, Oz, Hawaii, and West Coast.  It's huge knowing where so much of the Japanese army is and I'm surprised Steve would take the chance of getting tied down here.  In fact, I'm nearly sure now that India isn't threatened (it'll take Steve a long time to deal with Singers even after Luzon falls) nor is West Coast.  That leaves, in my opinion, Hawaii, Oz and China as secondary targets after Luzon.
 
NoPac:  No sign of KB and otherwise quiet in this region.  I'm worried about the possibility of a KB sea lane raid between West Coast and Hawaii.  The transport TF carrying five fighter squadrons that departed Pearl a few days ago will move south between San Diego and Christmas Island.  I may leave here there awhile until the threat potential between West Coast and Oz clarifies a bit.
 
CenPac:  The scattered DDs of the Detroit TF report the Mini KB well to the north of Iwo Jima.  One DD takes moderate damage.  I'll end up losing all of the DDs eventually, but Mini KB is really on a wild goose chase.
 
Cocos:  Indian CD unit landing here now.
 
Port Blair:  Of the three transports carrying an Indian CD unit to this base, two are sunk by a sub.  Remnants of the unit are coming ashore now. 

[GreyJoy]

Don't know Dan... After the fall of Clark, Steve could easily leave a reinforced division to siege Manila (or Bataan) and move the rest of his Army everywhere he wants...
My experience is limited, mind you, but Rader against me used 4 divisions from Luzon to make a surprise attack in China, flanking my front at Nanning and blowing up all my chinese front finally... If my memory serves well, Rader invaded India in Feb 42... Japan can easily bypass the whole Burma if it has the KB in support...
Which are your time-scheldues for the possible operation "FORTRESS SEBANG"? When do you plan to start reinforcing it?