Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

November 1, 1942

Subs

Runner torpedoes and sinks a medium size TK near Talaud-Eilanden. First significant tanker loss of the war. Sealion duds on a DD in the South China Sea. Seawolf duds on an SC escorting TKs near Djemadja. KX duds (!) on a full troopship carrying a strong garrison unit to Sabang. Lucky.

We need to be ready in 60 days when the enemy torps start working better. Cribtop HQ is considering a plan dubbed Operation Galleon, in which massive convoys would load for weeks at key ports before proceeding under heavy escort to Japan. Obviously a problem if the enemy gets an SCTF or carrier raid into our perimeter, but at the moment we doubt CF has the inclination or the capability for that.

UK ASW DCs and hits I-28, which was snooping near Bombay. The sub should be able to make port.

A Lily reports a hit on a sub near Singapore, probably the Sturgeon. We usually take these reports with a grain of salt, but this group is all 70+ ASW skill, so maybe we sent the enemy home.

CF is moving support ships to Noumea to repair damaged survivors of the Torres Islands. Our subs are having a field day as a result. Today, I-7 puts two TTs into AD Whitney and sinks the big vessel.

SE Fleet

In a sneaky good move, we order G3M3 Nells to hit Cooktown in daylight after recon showed hordes of bombers but no fighters. We guess right and catch a bunch of B-24s on the ground, destroying only 1 but damaging 16. Banzai! CF will think twice about using this exposed base for his 4Es. We know this was a one shot deal as the enemy will move in fighters, but that will take up space at the base and help protect our ships at Rabaul. We will consider a big bombardment of Cooktown as our next trick.

Southern Army

We land the aforementioned garrison unit at Sabang, raising defensive AS to 150+ behind four forts and growing. We feel more sanguine about this area now, as Sabang was a big hole in the front line.

China

DA Kukong gets a 5:1 against the isolated LCUs here. Casualties are 1452(114) vs 536(5). This sideshow will be over soon without the need for reinforcements.

5th Fleet

As the calendar flips into November, winter descends on NOPAC. We have some breathing room to use for re-supply and reinforcement. We plan to send forces into the Kuriles and possibly the Aleutians if we can scrape something together.

[Cribtop]

November 2, 1942

Subs

Pompano duds on an xAK hauling resources near Daito Shoto.

RO-65 puts two TTs into the big AR Medusa East of Noumea and down she goes! Another casualty of what Cribtop Intel believes to be the enemy's "repair the Enterprise" operation. Banzai! We really are thinking that MKB should visit New Caledonia soon. Escorts of a big convoy of xAPs and xAKs then prevent RO-65 from claiming more victims.

4th, 5th and SE Fleets

Nothing but the rain...

Southern Army

We are watching as CF increases recon and troop movements in NW Oz. Cribtop HQ issues a warning order to various units, including 18th Division at Kendari, to prepare to intervene here if it's the real deal.

15th Army

We are building up Lashio as a bomber base to threaten Ledo. The twin objectives here are to choke off the air bridge to China while forcing CF to deploy fighters away from offensive missions.

China

Speaking of the air bridge, Sallys at Lao Cai finally sortie against Kunming and hit the base hard, destroying several DC-2s.

A ChiCom LCU marches to within one hex of Taiyuan. Given our defenses in the mountain base and the pursuing division, we are quite happy with this.

Combined Fleet

MKB safely arrives at Truk today. The carriers will refit for a week or two to clear SYS damage. Evaluation of pilot losses is rather encouraging. We only need to pull 51 total pilots for 12 CVs and CVLs after a major carrier battle. Not too bad at all. We have the reserves and will allocate them.

Other

17th Army HQ, 2nd Division and 5th Division arrive without incident at Babel to begin to build a strategic reserve. They will soon be joined by 16th Division, several tank regiments and a horde of artillery. This frees up 48th Division to move from emergency strat reserve into its intended role as part of the SE Fleet local reserve. Nice!

In not so nice news, Chittagong makes airfield level 8 and Lahaina airfield level 7.

[Cribtop]

November 3, 1942

A quiet day.

Subs

Near Noumea, RO-65 misses an ASW TF DD and takes a penetrating DC hit in return. This gallant sub will have to RTB for repairs.

SE Fleet

Nicks and Zekes watch over our damaged chicks at Rabaul. The enemy Liberators appear chastened by our Nell raid for now.

Southern Army

B-17s hit our flanking tank regiment on the road to Wyndham. We fear this is a prelude to attack by CF's armor, but they do not make a move. As a result, a second IJA tank regiment arrives and fully isolates the Allied tank battalion. A third Japanese tank unit will enter the hex tomorrow.

China

DA Kukong achieves 10:1 odds, casualties 1327(5) vs 889(5).

Combined Fleet

Repairs will be finished in 10 days. Airframes are brought to full today. Pilots tomorrow.

[Cribtop]

OK, here is the promised combat report from Baker. Note that casualties on landing were nominal. In the combat replay, the IJA unit started with an AV number of 150ish that immediately dropped to zero in the fire phase of combat. Perhaps the American base force has a lot of heavy weapons? Maybe 40mm Bofors and 50 cal MGs firing in anti-personnel role?

I've seen divisional assaults fail due to lack of supply caused by the overstack. That was the reason behind my flawed decision to bring only a third of a division. Prep was 100%, supplies in the unit even after the battle were very much in the white (3X required IIRC). I guess if a division could be supplied it would just suffer awful losses but perhaps have the second wave bull over the enemy by sheer numbers? I did use both LSDs and AKs for the troops. Four big xAKs offloaded the supplies and did well at their job.

So, what do y'all think happened?

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Oct 27, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Baker Island (149,136)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

19 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
     CL Kashima
     CL Katori
     DD Mochizuki
     DD Mutsuki
     LSD Akitsu Maru
     DD Takanami
     DD Wakaba

Japanese ground losses:
     9 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
     10 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


CL Kashima firing at 134th USA  Base Force
CL Katori firing at 134th USA  Base Force
DD Mochizuki firing at 134th USA  Base Force
DD Mutsuki firing at 134th USA  Base Force
DD Mochizuki fired at enemy troops
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 6,000 yards
Defensive Guns fire at approaching troops in landing craft at 1,000 yards


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Baker Island (149,136)

TF 157 troops unloading over beach at Baker Island, 149,136

Japanese ground losses:
     47 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
        Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Vehicles lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Baker Island (149,136)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 4196 troops, 41 guns, 13 vehicles, Assault Value = 146

Defending force 3382 troops, 8 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 56

Japanese adjusted assault: 0

Allied adjusted defense: 72

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 99 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
     2029 casualties reported
        Squads: 128 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 60 disabled
        Engineers: 22 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Guns lost 22 (15 destroyed, 7 disabled)
     Vehicles lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)



Assaulting units:
   20th/C Div /2

Defending units:
   1st Marine Raider Battalion
   134th USA  Base Force
   3rd USN Naval Construction Battalion

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Whats the stats of the commander of that third ?

[Alfred]

Cribtop,

Not enough data provided. A few issues are highlighted.

1. A negative modifier for disruption. The disruption could have been caused by the Allied shore guns but much more likely is the length of time the troops were on board the ships.

2. You seem to have arrived only at daybreak. When assaulting an atoll it is absolutely critical that you arrive during the night phase so that you have two phases to unload the troops.

3. Only a fragment of your force was landed in time to launch the auto shock attack. This could be due to having only one unloading phase or not properly combat loading the troops onto the ships. You need to very much bear in mind the unload data provided in s.6.3.3.3.2.1 of the manual. In practice this means that your troop transports will be less than 50% full and contain no additional supply (other than that automatically taken on board by the game code).

4. There is no evidence of air bombardment of the defenders plus your naval bombardment TF was way too light to achieve anything meaningful. The KB is necessary not just to escort the invasion fleet but to also soften up the defenders. A heavier surface bombardment TF was also absolutely necessary as you did not rely on extensive pre invasion aerial strikes against Baker.

5. A USA Base Force has more than a third the offensive Assault Value of a Raider battalion. Hence, even before taking into account the defensive value of non combat devices, you already were significantly underestimating the bite of the enemy force awaiting you on Baker.

The reason why you simply must learn from this failure is because your strategy is based on an active defence with use of reserves to counter attack Allied offensives. Implementing such a strategy means you will inevitably have to counter invade enemy islands and atolls. Thus you need to fine tune your technique to land on opposed locations well after the end of the Japanese invasion bonus period has ended.

Alfred

[Cribtop]

Alfred,

Thanks as always for the input.

I did use all the available unloading phases by moving the TF into the hex with "do not unload" orders and then unloading the next day over all three phases. I think that the other unloading phases don't show up as they didn't generate a combat replay other than the "Japanese force unloading at Baker Island" message (or I just missed them in the cut and paste, but I don't think so).

I do agree that I didn't bring enough to the party and didn't hammer the defenders enough. I did have a CL/DD TF bombard the day before and bombed on and off for a week. I confess I saw this as a snap invasion against a weakly defended target. Clearly a flawed assumption.

You are entirely correct that I have to get my amphibious doctrine down if I am to succeed with a counterpunching strategy. I very much underestimated the target. At the time I went in, I didn't have a meaningful strategic reserve as I was going hard for China and that may have influenced me to be cheap. I now have four divisions in local reserve (two each for the Pacific and Southern Army) and three divisions as strat reserve at Babel. Next time I attack (Ndeni), I'll be ready. Of course, it also helps that Ndeni isn't an atoll.

Finally, the disruption may have accumulated on the ships. I sent them straight from Truk and lingered an extra day or two near Jaluit as the Torres Islands CV battle played out. Should have unloaded at Jaluit for a re-org.

[Cribtop]

November 4, 1942

Once again I find myself playing catch up. Apologies, but the post move-in house arrangement monster is not yet defeated.

Frankly, things have been quiet post-Torres Islands, but all indications are that CF is beginning to stir towards Port Moresby, Darwin and Akyab. These avenues of approach are consistent with his newfound need to attack overland or under cover of LBA. We'll be watching for signs these moves are feints, but Cribtop Intel believes this will be the shape of the war until Summer 1943.

Subs

ASW harasses K XVIII near Donggala. As enemy subs re-appear here, we shift an ASW Ann group in response.

Tambor torpedoes a big xAK near the Marianas. She'll try to make Pagan for emergency repairs.

Operation Galleon

Cribtop HQ is considering options for the coming onslaught of more effective USN sub torpedoes. We are taking pains to ensure that the Malacca and Sunda Straits are mined and watched over by ASW TFs and trained aircraft. Same with the channel between Formosa and China (sans mines). We have drained just about all the production centers of excess stock, although piles of stuff remain at Singapore, Manila, Hokkaido and Sakhalin Island. We are considering less frequent, larger and better escorted convoys to replace the existing routes. These large treasure fleets remind me of Spanish Galleons. Hence the name of the Op.

What are y'all's thoughts? Bigger convoys will be less vulnerable to subs but obviously more vulnerable to SCTFs and CV raids. However, given the routes of these convoys, they are deep inside the perimeter, and thus pretty safe for now.

Southern Army

Helens and B-17s trade raids on the tanks West of Daly. A third IJA tank regiment enters this hex where 754th Tank Bttn is surrounded. We shall see whether this was a probe or an offensive. If the latter, numerous local reserves are available.

Through a concerted effort, we have drained Palembang of Oil, then fuel. Only resources remain in quantity. The glut has shifted to Singers, but additional TFs will now move the pile to Japan.

15th Army

We sweep and bomb Akyab to keep it suppressed. We accidentally throw the Bettys at Rangoon into the effort. This raid also sees the first operational use of the Helen IIa.

China

The enemy ChiCom Army is finally pulling out of its pre-war positions and falling back on Yenan. Cut off for eight months or more, they must be starving. We will watch for and offensive against Sian and shift a few units to cover, but Cribtop HQ isn't overly concerned.

Combined Fleet

Repairs continue at Truk. Over the next week or so we will reconstitute air groups by pulling elite pilots from IJNAF LBA groups into reserve, then those pilots plus a TRACOM stash will move into the carrier groups. Plenty of trained pilots are available for the LBA groups.

[Cribtop]

November 5, 1942

Subs

Convoy escorts chase off Seawolf near Singers. This is a new patrol area that we will respond to by shifting an AV to Terempa to allow for ASW air coverage in an unbroken line from Miri to Singapore.

Our sub blockade of damaged Enterprise at Nounea continues.

Oosthaven and Merak are now heavily mined and shepherded by ACMs. We hope a few subs fall into this net.

SE Fleet

CF chooses to return to PM the one day we rested our LRCAPing Nicks. The base is hit pretty good but not too bad. Our decision to base a construction engineer unit here permanently is helping to keep damage low and providing a chance to attrit 4Es in favorable conditions.

15th Army

Ramree Island makes level 1 airfield. This was done to facilitate pulling out or inserting troops by air for easier re-positioning if necessary.

China

Weather keeps grounding our Sallys and hampering efforts to suppress Kunming.

DA Kukong - 14:1 odds, casualties 1206(28) vs 436(6). Just a matter of time.

[Alfred]

My comment is based on annecdotal experience and from an Allied perspective.

The maximum size of an ASW TF is 4 ships. I have never notice more than four escorts embedded in a logistics TF engaging an enemy submarine. In fact usually it is only a maximum of two escort ships involved in combat.

Hence I would say go for bigger size convoys but don't bother embedding more than 4 escort combatants within the convoy.

I wouldn't be too concerned about the bigger sized convoys being susceptible to enemy surface TF. However if you are you can always create a dedicated surface TF to lead the convoy. Has the added benefit of allowing more "escorts" to shepherd the sheep through (bearing in mind the earlier remark about number of embedded escorts) and if the leading surface combat TF has fast combatants (eg destroyers) that will provide that particular TF with a combat advantage should enemy subs be encountered.

Alfred

[Cribtop]

November 6, 1942

Quiet day.

Subs

I-23 misses an ASW DD near Noumea and predictably takes two penetrating DC hits in return. The first rule of Sub Club is... Don't shoot at escorts! Not that my captains listen. The sub should make it back to Rabaul.

Ha-11 enters the Noumea hex and tries an attack on an SCTF flagged by BB North Carolina, but is chased off by escorts. Worth a shot.

The xAK Manila Maru, hit off the Marianas recently, makes Pagan to pump out. Nice.

SE Fleet

The B-24s return to PM, find 12 Nicks, and lose five bombers to outright kills. Banzai! That Nick group is getting really good.

Speaking of them, I really want a third big group of Nicks. I have 5th and 13th Sentai already. What other groups can upgrade to Nicks? I've looked around but pickings are slim.

China

DA Kukong grinds away, odds 11:1, casualties 810(15) vs 355(2). Although that seems like a regression, this attack leaves only one of six LCUs with any adjusted AV, and total AV for the enemy stack has collapsed below 40. We will now step up attacks to increase the spiral and finally force a surrender of these six units.

Construction progress

Hakodate makes level 7 port, which will help with resource movement. Milne Bay makes level 5 forts, which is awesome. We have 350ish AS here and soon will have level 6 forts to boot.

Ndeni makes level 2 airfield for the enemy.

[obvert]

You mention Port Moresby being a good place to attrit Allied air power. I find it a bit out on a limb, although it hasn't had a tough test in my game yet. The only supporting base is Buna, and it's tough to supply. How large do you build the airfields there?

[Cribtop]

November 7, 1942

Subs

Brave I-9, which won a surface engagement with a convoy near Perth, makes Port Hedland and will survive. Banzai!

Our failed midget attack at Noumea convinced CF to disband the North Carolina TF. This increases the value of a port attack here by MKB, which is being studied as Operation Bismarck by Cribtop HQ (as in Sink the Enterprise a la Sink the Bismarck).

SE Fleet

Oddly, today is the first enemy aerial recon of PM, well after CF commenced a bombing campaign.

A strong special base force approaches Terapo via the Torres Strait as part of our plan to make the Papuan Peninsula a very tough nut to crack.

Efate makes level 2 port.

Southern Army

We now have firm confirmation that at least some additional units are moving down the road toward the trapped 754th Tank Battalion. A rescue or an offensive?

Sinabang makes level 3 forts. We are paying attention to defenses here thanks to warnings from crsutton in several threads about the value of the bases "West" of Sumatra.

Alice Springs goes to level 5 airfield.

15th Army

An enemy concentration of troops at Chittagong appears to be making for Akyab. Interesting.

Taung Gyi's airfield goes to level 3.

China

We finally get a good raid on Kunming.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

My comment is based on annecdotal experience and from an Allied perspective.

The maximum size of an ASW TF is 4 ships. I have never notice more than four escorts embedded in a logistics TF engaging an enemy submarine. In fact usually it is only a maximum of two escort ships involved in combat.

Hence I would say go for bigger size convoys but don't bother embedding more than 4 escort combatants within the convoy.
..............
Alfred

In my observations subject to complete randomness there seems to be a check/die roll if the submarines get chansed off by the escort or they find a soft prey first and then the escorts get involved ... that die roll seems to be influenced by the ratio of escorts to escorties [&:] Thus just a couple of ASW might be involved in the combat portion, but it is my sophomoric observations that whether something is hit before that happends -- is influenced by the number and type of escorts ... maybe it's just randomness and I do not have enough 'N' to make such a conclusion ..

[Cribtop]

November 8, 1942

Subs

No contacts for once. Note the relative lack of enemy attacks recently. Cribtop Intel is of the opinion that CF has pulled back his USN boats to refit and re-position for a big push with improved torps in January.

SE Fleet

The special base force begins to unload at Terapo, which will take a while as we've intentionally refused to improve the base to make it harder for CF to use if he takes it. We're awfully exposed here, but Tokyo judges reinforcing the base is so important we are willing to lose the task force to do it.

Southern Army

Looks like two enemy LCUs with a decent amount of vehicles are moving toward the 754th in Oz. So far more of the appearance of a rescue. To be safe, today we unload a garrison unit at Wyndham and are readying another to guard the road to Derby.

China

Another good raid on Kunming nets four transports and begins to close the base.

DA Kukong nets 7:1, casualties 647(89) vs 176(1). We see the big increase in destroyed enemy squads as combat power fails.

[Cribtop]

Great comments on ASW, folks. I'll chew on them and maybe experiment with most convoys having four escorts and one with more. Chasing off a sub is a good result. That said, with the constant shortage of escorts, four per may be all we can scrounge.

Obvert, in the circumstances of this game, where CF is sending about 30 B-24s on raids and targeting only PM, I can use Buna (level 2) and Lae/Nadzab (level 4 each) for LRCAP. If the enemy brought more or hit more bases, things could get hairy. So long as he is hurling a manageable amount of 4Es at an elite Nick group that knows where he's going, that works well for us. We await the first P-38 sweep, which could be a problem, but until then, harvesting 5 4Es per raid is unsustainable for CF.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Great comments on ASW, folks. I'll chew on them and maybe experiment with most convoys having four escorts and one with more. Chasing off a sub is a good result. That said, with the constant shortage of escorts, four per may be all we can scrounge.

Obvert, in the circumstances of this game, where CF is sending about 30 B-24s on raids and targeting only PM, I can use Buna (level 2) and Lae/Nadzab (level 4 each) for LRCAP. If the enemy brought more or hit more bases, things could get hairy. So long as he is hurling a manageable amount of 4Es at an elite Nick group that knows where he's going, that works well for us. We await the first P-38 sweep, which could be a problem, but until then, harvesting 5 4Es per raid is unsustainable for CF.

Yes. Five per raid is great!

In my game Lightnings seem tied to the skirts of the 4Es. Wherever they go, there will be P-38 sweeps first. Also, Jocke doesn't attack with less than 50 of them per raid, and usually more like 80-90. I'd love to see just 30.

I have to figure out which other groups can support the Nick. I have a few going, but I could use a few more. I meant to do this a while ago, but then there were these time-consuming CV battles that got in the way of my logistical discipline! [;)]

[Cribtop]

November 9, 1942

Subs

Nothing but re-positioning of subs and sub hunters around Noumea.

SE Fleet

Bettys at Munda spot what appears to be a mine ship slinking away from Ndeni. No surprise that the enemy is looking to his defenses.

Southern Army

B-17s hit our armor in NW Oz. We have a big, elite Zero group on LRCAP, but the lack of durability compared to Nicks really shows as five Zeros are Ops losses. Only one pilot is lost, however.

15th Army

We keep hitting Akyab and maintaining damage levels at a point where it would be risky for CF to try to use the base.

We are building up Lashio as a bomber base to hit Ledo and shut down the air bridge's Indian terminal.

China

Kunming is hit hard again and appears to be abandoned by enemy transports. Good stuff.

DA Kukong, odds 15:1, casualties 1186(25) vs 417(2).

[Cribtop]

November 10, 1942

Very quiet.

4th Fleet

Maloelep gets to level 5 forts. This is great as the base used organic engineers only, allowing us to save a stop on the big engineer tour of the Pacific.

15th Army

We confirm two LCUs moving down the Arakan coastal road. 10K troops, small numbers of guns and vehicles. Probably an infantry unit and a base force or construction engineer. Not exactly a big stack, but we are reinforcing Burma and keeping an eye on it.

China

BA in the north at 91, 39 shows two enemy corps and an HQ unit. They are part of the starving diaspora toward Yenan. We may try an attack, but don't have the strength unless the enemy supply is really low, which it should be, but you never know.

[Cribtop]

November 11, 1942

Happy virtual Arnistice Day! I wonder if celebrating Nov 11 during WW II gave the Allies hope for victory in the new conflict?

Subs

The out of fuel Ha-11 is put out of her misery. We would've scuttled her but there's no button on minis. Then again, they are usually self-scuttling. [:D]

SE Fleet

A big SCTF with two fast BBs, 3 cruisers and several DDs, including Gridley, bombard PM! Ha-8, at the base in a monitor role, takes a shot at a DD but misses.

Damage is surprisingly light, perhaps due to the low moon phase.

Then 32 B-24s arrive and meet 17 Nicks on LRCAP. 5 4Es are shot down vs a loss of 6 Nicks, all but one a write off after landing. No pilots are lost. CF can't do this for long. We have a few Dinahs on recon duty, and when they are damaged it's sometimes reported as a fighter bomber. We hope this is fooling CF into thinking the Nicks are based at PM, causing him to continue the favorable attrition battle here.

The main concern is how we didn't spot the bombardment TF. It had to stage in an area covered by a sea of overlapping black search patterns, both Jakes and G3M3s. We order a Glen boat to the area to catch repeat efforts, but feel less secure about our pretty search patterns throughout the Empire.

Southern Army

The Fleet Oilers arrive at the Singapore gas station. They'll refit for a few days, load up, and rejoin MKB.

15th Army

Both Akyab and Chittagong are bombed at night. Chitt is full and we get a Blenheim and a Hurricane on the ground.

China

DA Kukong clocks in at 16:1, 710(69) vs 216(0).

Liuchow makes level 4 forts.

Combined Fleet

MKB is almost done clearing SYS damage and has fully reconstituted air groups. We are considering a raid on Noumea followed by much delayed upgrades for Shokaku and Zuikaku.