Where the eastern wind is blowing... AAR against Canoerebel

[witpqs]

IIRC that was Alfred's post on HQ stuff.

BTW Yenan is notoriously difficult to supply. I wouldn't give it a second thought.

[Hortlund]

The end of January is rapidly approaching. Lots of action in the north this time. BB New Mexico jumped Oi but got a bloody nose. Oi has now put 4 long lances in two different BBs. Both New Mexico and Warspite got two each. Amazing performance. Unfortunately she would not survive this time, so we scuttled her at sea. Magnificant ship, magnificant performance.

New Mexico should be in sinking condition, she took two more torpedo hits from Kates later in the turn. As you can see, I have transformed that base into a hornets nest, while the KB is heading back to Japan for replenishment of airgroups and some yard time to fix sys damage.

[Hortlund]

Somewhat reluctantly Im ordering attacks at Clark and Anchorage tomorrow. I need to grind down the defenders at Clark, and Im not sure whats going on at Anchorage where a single US regiment of 100 AV is holding back two of my regiments and a brigade. I had 500 AVs going in there, now we are down to 350. Im ordering the 2nd Division to recombine at Anchorage after today. The units are at Steward and Anchorage so it should not take more than a week.

[Hortlund]

The attacks failed, Anchorage is a puzzle really. A single US Rgt of 100 AV should not be able to hold against 450 AV like this, not without forts. Really weird. We will focus on Seward now, and after that base falls, I will move the regiment from there to Anchorage and recombine the 2nd Division. This unit should be able to take Anchorage and then Kodiak.

[Hortlund]

On a more general note.

One of the hardest things on the grand strategy level is that making plans is easy, but carrying them out is harder. It is easy to become distracted when various opportunities present themselves, and it is even easier to second-guess oneself and scratch everything to start on a new plan that seems better at the time. The problem is that sometimes you have to be flexible enough to change your plans if a really good opportunity presents itself, and sometimes, even most of the time, you have to be stubborn enough not to change the plans. The difficulty is of cource, knowing the difference between when the plans should be changed and when they shouldnt.

Case in question: India or Australia.

Australia
I had decided not to do any offensive operations in Australia because there really is no winning that one for the Japs. Australia is huge and by the time a serious offensive can be mounted, the opposition is well dug-in in good defensive terrain. What remains is a rather pointless war of attrition far away from supply sources and with a good chance of being cut-off and isolated.

It turns out however that Canoe isnt defending Darwin at all. When recon indicated a meager defence, I landed two tank units to proble northern Australia. They landed at Wyndham and now they have taken Katherine. Meanwhile the Darwin defenders are fleeing south. In this case, I would be a fool not to take it.

So, Im mounting a shoestring-type offensive operation consisting of five tank units, all in all some250 AVs. Protecting and transporting them are 2 CAs, 2 CVEs a handful of destroyers and some transport ships. They are supported by two Zero wings and two Betty wings. This is a very small force, but I think this force will be able to take most of northern Australia.

India
I have alot of submarines out in the Indian sealanes. Very little merchant traffic in the area to report of. Burma seems to be not reinforced at all, so the Indian brigades and the 18th UK must be somewhere else. I think I could do some real damage here if I committed my 8 divisions at Clark after that base has fallen. It would not be hard to get ashore and the KB could be in place in three weeks.

This is an opportunity presenting itself. Canoe is probably feeling safe since Singapore is still in Allied hands. He is also building a defensive position at Port Blair, a tripwire, if you will. The problem is that both Singapore and Port Blair are easy to bypass.

I havent decided yet. I think I will stay on focus with China, but the lure of India is nice and shiny...

[witpqs]

Darwin is impossible to supply by land at this stage, although maybe later after all the interior bases are built up. If you control the sea, he can not defend Darwin once then-existing supplies are expended, hence the withdrawal.

Regarding Anchorage: I would look at two things most of all. First, the heavy weapons that the USA regiment has on hand. They must be making a difference. Second, have a look at the squad stats in Tracker for the infantry squad type that the unit likely has and you will see that they are fairly strong. Certainly much tougher customers than most of the Allied troops this early. I don't recall the starting experience of those troops.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Darwin is impossible to supply by land at this stage, although maybe later after all the interior bases are built up. If you control the sea, he can not defend Darwin once then-existing supplies are expended, hence the withdrawal.

Regarding Anchorage: I would look at two things most of all. First, the heavy weapons that the USA regiment has on hand. They must be making a difference. Second, have a look at the squad stats in Tracker for the infantry squad type that the unit likely has and you will see that they are fairly strong. Certainly much tougher customers than most of the Allied troops this early. I don't recall the starting experience of those troops.

A division or so worth of combat troops with some support will be fine in Darwin. Enough supply should flow. However, a large army such as a full corps just cannot maintain supply past Tennant Creek. A strong Japanese garrison in Darwin can hold out until it can be flanked or taken from the sea by the Allies. For this reason, Japan should always take Darwin. It is easy to take and for a while easy to hold.

[ny59giants]

Darwin is one of those bases that is more important to deny its use to your opponent than it is important to you. Same for Port Morseby. Either one or both will cause the Japanese player problems if allowed to stay in Allied hands.

[Crackaces]

A division or so worth of combat troops with some support will be fine in Darwin. Enough supply should flow. However, a large army such as a full corps just cannot maintain supply past Tennant Creek

A Corps can be supplied, albite just barely. I has the I AUS Corps past Tennent Creek and they were able to clean house on the 19th IJA Division ..I beleive It does require building up Alice Springs and every base in between to maximum levels and moving supply before the Corps advances beyond Tennent Creek.

[erstad]

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

The attacks failed, Anchorage is a puzzle really. A single US Rgt of 100 AV should not be able to hold against 450 AV like this, not without forts. Really weird.

Well, 3X for Forest+Rough terrain. And if the at-start troops are all there there's several HQs and BFs, maybe 500 support squads which, IIRC contributes a nominal 50 AV to the defending AV for odds computation. A couple of artillery units. And he's ahead of you in prep (most of them start at 50) and there's a corps HQ there that will help a little. So it's not a cakewalk. Your guys did have good fatigue/disruption?

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: erstad

ORIGINAL: Panzerjaeger Hortlund

The attacks failed, Anchorage is a puzzle really. A single US Rgt of 100 AV should not be able to hold against 450 AV like this, not without forts. Really weird.

Well, 3X for Forest+Rough terrain. And if the at-start troops are all there there's several HQs and BFs, maybe 500 support squads which, IIRC contributes a nominal 50 AV to the defending AV for odds computation. A couple of artillery units. And he's ahead of you in prep (most of them start at 50) and there's a corps HQ there that will help a little. So it's not a cakewalk. Your guys did have good fatigue/disruption?

+1

you've got to do a fair amount of bombing to drive up their disruption prior to attack.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Darwin is impossible to supply by land at this stage, although maybe later after all the interior bases are built up. If you control the sea, he can not defend Darwin once then-existing supplies are expended, hence the withdrawal.

Regarding Anchorage: I would look at two things most of all. First, the heavy weapons that the USA regiment has on hand. They must be making a difference. Second, have a look at the squad stats in Tracker for the infantry squad type that the unit likely has and you will see that they are fairly strong. Certainly much tougher customers than most of the Allied troops this early. I don't recall the starting experience of those troops.

A division or so worth of combat troops with some support will be fine in Darwin. Enough supply should flow. However, a large army such as a full corps just cannot maintain supply past Tennant Creek. A strong Japanese garrison in Darwin can hold out until it can be flanked or taken from the sea by the Allies. For this reason, Japan should always take Darwin. It is easy to take and for a while easy to hold.

every halve skilled Allied player should be able to have a supply stock of at least 100.000 tons in Darwin by mid/end January. Of course only if he wants to have that supply there.

[crsutton]

It is not the supply as Darwin is easily flanked in 42 and it is tough to get scarce Allied troops there in the early months. Also very tough on the Allies if those troops are wiped out. What I was referring to is the eventual Allied attempt to retake Darwin in 43-44. If Japan has three or four good divisons with support in Darwin then it is almost impossible for the Allied to supply the needed forces to eject them by a strictly overland advance. It almost has to be by sea. Yet if Japan only commits a division or two then the Allies can take the overland route and recapture Darwin. So in this case, I really think it is worth holding and even sacrificing a very substantial Japanese force around Darwin to hold it as long as possible. Two little and the Allies have it too easy, but a strong force might hold it well into 1944 depending on the state of the Japanese navy.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

It is not the supply as Darwin is easily flanked in 42 and it is tough to get scarce Allied troops there in the early months. Also very tough on the Allies if those troops are wiped out. What I was referring to is the eventual Allied attempt to retake Darwin in 43-44. If Japan has three or four good divisons with support in Darwin then it is almost impossible for the Allied to supply the needed forces to eject them by a strictly overland advance. It almost has to be by sea. Yet if Japan only commits a division or two then the Allies can take the overland route and recapture Darwin. So in this case, I really think it is worth holding and even sacrificing a very substantial Japanese force around Darwin to hold it as long as possible. Two little and the Allies have it too easy, but a strong force might hold it well into 1944 depending on the state of the Japanese navy.

Why do the Allies need to drive the Japanese out of there in 1944? By the time '44 rolls around, it's probably just as easy, if not easier, to land on Timor or some of those islands in the Banda Sea, and just isolate the Japanese in Darwin.

IMO, Japanese can hold it for awhile, but at a certain point you need to get out of there; it's a trap, long-term

[Hortlund]

ORIGINAL: erstad

Well, 3X for Forest+Rough terrain. And if the at-start troops are all there there's several HQs and BFs, maybe 500 support squads which, IIRC contributes a nominal 50 AV to the defending AV for odds computation. A couple of artillery units. And he's ahead of you in prep (most of them start at 50) and there's a corps HQ there that will help a little. So it's not a cakewalk. Your guys did have good fatigue/disruption?

Yeah, my troops were below 5 in both fatigue and disruption. No more attacks there now until the 2nd Div forms up in two days, then we will see how they fare against a division. In case everything fails despite that I have a fresh brigade coming in from Korea.

[Hortlund]

In other news, Im leaning more and more towards an Indian invasion. Not to capture all of it, but to force his airforce into a fight before he gets huge numbers of hurricanes.

More on that later.

[Hortlund]

We are now at February 4th 1942. Since it is a new month, we need to kill 350 Chinese squads. And as luck would have it, Canoe is careless with his troops. A small stack of Chinese corps is caught in that lone dot-base outside Changsa.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Pingsiang (82,54)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 49759 troops, 420 guns, 153 vehicles, Assault Value = 1836

Defending force 22402 troops, 130 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 869

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 1002

Allied adjusted defense: 405

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Pingsiang !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1491 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 138 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled


Allied ground losses:
7946 casualties reported
Squads: 341 destroyed, 67 disabled
Non Combat: 305 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 67 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 24 (21 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Units retreated 3


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
39th Division
15th Division
6th Division
22nd Division

Defending units:
70th Chinese Corps
86th Chinese Corps
3rd New Chinese Corps


I think he is manuvering to try and catch some unsuspecting division of mine in this area. The Chinese retreat into a hex already containing several Chinese corps. So we'll have to be careful around here. Hankow is also being reinforced and fortifications are approaching lvl 4.


Clark continues to be a quagmire. Our latest attack failed at 1-2 odds. Lots of US casualties though, roughly 5000 Japs against 3000 US. Hopefully they will break soon. Not that I really need those divisions elsewhere right now, but I cannot move against any other strategic target while they are bogged down there.

[Hortlund]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 07, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Clark Field (79,76)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 95181 troops, 1123 guns, 675 vehicles, Assault Value = 2431

Defending force 36029 troops, 576 guns, 482 vehicles, Assault Value = 702

Japanese adjusted assault: 2485

Allied adjusted defense: 1048

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Clark Field !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-4 Catalina: 4 destroyed
O-47A: 3 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3006 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 234 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 53 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 48 disabled
Guns lost 28 (5 destroyed, 23 disabled)
Vehicles lost 48 (31 destroyed, 17 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
14533 casualties reported
Squads: 645 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 914 destroyed, 42 disabled
Engineers: 111 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 207 (200 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 375 (373 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Units retreated 21
Units destroyed 3


Assaulting units:
16th Division
4th Tank Regiment
33rd Division
18th Division
7th Tank Regiment
Imperial Guards Division
38th Division
48th Division
4th Division
20th Ind. Engineer Regiment
21st Division
Yokosuka 1st SNLF /2
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
2nd Mortar Battalion
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
14th Army
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
19th Ind. Engineer Regiment
3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment

Defending units:
31st Infantry Regiment
4th PA Constabulary Regiment
57th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
31st PA Infantry Division
21st PA Infantry Division
1st PA Infantry Division
51st PA Infantry Division
71st PA Infantry Division
192nd Tank Battalion
11th PA Infantry Division
194th Tank Battalion
41st PA Infantry Division
4th Marine Regiment
2nd PA Constblry HW Regiment
200th & 515th Coast AA Regiment
Clark Field USAAF Base Force
Cavite USN Base Force
Far East USAAF
1st PI Base Force
USAFFE
26th PS Cavalry Regiment
86th PS Coastal Artillery Battalion
I Philippine Corps
Subic Bay Defenses

[Hortlund]

I have three alternatives now.



1) Send an invasion force to India.
Objective would be to sieze the industrial heartland around Calcutta, draw the RAF into a fight. This would be an operation with limited objectives and during a limited period of time. Roughly a year.


2) Use these forces to capture Singapore.
Would tie the units down for another 3-4 weeks.


3) Use these forces in China.
Would probably open up a new front in southern China.



I am leaning towards 1). I think I could catch him completely by surprise. The initial landing would be with roughly 1500 AV and the follow up would consist of another 1500. This operation would take place under the cover of a Maskirovka of epic proportions. I am fairly certain I would be able to convince Canoe that I was actually moving towards Vancouver.

[Historiker]

Readomg both AARs, I can hardly comment on that. But 8 divisions and 2 tank regiments down to 2.500 AV? ouch!