41-45 GC AAR notenome (sov) vs 821Bobo (axis) no 821 past first page.

[notenome]

Fishebed, it is a distinct possibility I'm toying with. Orel is very weakly held, the divisions around it are mostly 1-1 in lvl 1 forts. One of the three rifle armies being sent there is 4th shock army comprised of guards divisions that I pulled from the front. Seriously contemplating having them attack southwards towards the city, but its going to take a while to get there.

Seminole, we are in mid-January right now, so I have 6 (?) blizzard turns I think. Hopefully it will be enough to turn the Axis flank and then there won't be a bulge. If it looks like I won't be able to turn the flank, I will be pulling out. As for Guards, I see your point but here's the thing: many of my divisions pick up multiple wins a turn, because after I force an Axis division from its fort I send fresh divisions that didn't participate in the attack forwards. They then perform 2-3 hasty attacks on the divisions that retreated, picking up 2-3 wins in the process. On average 5-8 divisions become eligible every turn, which is far outstripping the Guards cap.

[Flaviusx]

Snow is possible in February, bear in mind. It is even possible in January, outside the Soviet North zone (which is guaranteed blizzard), but most of the action going on is in the north zone, so you are basically safe until February.

Sending the shock army to Orel is a good idea. Frankly, you need more rifles in this area, period. This tank brigade screen thing you've got going on is a disaster waiting to happen, you've got to cover the gap between Bryansk and SW Fronts with something real.

[notenome]

Before Soviet moves:

A few steps back taken in some places by 821. Axis strength seems to be stabilizing around the 2,800,000 mark. My guess is that 821 disbanded a ton of fort regions after I reached the lvl 2 fort line and that provided a short term surge of reinforcements. The northern side of the Orel bulge is packed with 2 or 3 division stacks, but they don't have forts. What is the recommendation for attacking those?

In other news, a new wave of Guards promotions, including two guards cav corps. We're up to 24 guards rifle divisions. Soviet strength continues to rise moderately. I'm guessing we'll be at around the 5 million mark by the end of the blizzard, depending on how many snow turns we get etc.

[notenome]

Close up of the Orel-Bryansk bulge, suggestions are always welcome.

[Flaviusx]

That's going to be difficult to punch through with just cav. Hate seeing you stop just short of Bryansk, and he's holding the rail lines, but turning south may be the better way to go now. But not much better, you're lacking any kind of strong infantry punch there as well.

I would be tempted to pull back the cav entirely at this point, tbh. Give up that bulge. Rest them and wait for the infantry to pull up.

[gingerbread]

The German OOB strength increase is due to the release of ~200k Hiwi's and the ~90k of reinforcements arriving in January (more in Feb).

Even with a hold result you will inflict a one point morale loss on the defender(s) if the final odds are at least 1:2.

[notenome]

Flav he can keep Bryansk, I want to protect Moscow's southern flank, and for that I need Kaluga. Orel looks ripe. If the bulge accomplished one thing, is that its stretched the Germans fairly thin in various places.

[notenome]

Turn 32.

Offensive action ramped up this turn. Soviet forces scored 37 retreats and 8 holds, a decent if not great performance. Almost no Axis reserve activations this turn, which I attribute to the Axis line being stripped this turn to deal with the Orel bulge, which no longer is really a bulge (more on that on the next post).

A few more comments:

-Taking a look around, we have 24 guards divisions and 24 airborne brigades. That would equal to 32 guards rifles at the moment. Not only that, but there are 28 divisions who currently have a W/L record that would qualify them for guards status, with many more on the cusp. Good chance we're going to have a whole lot of guards come summer.

-I have excess labour squads but construction formations are at max TOEs. I have begun disbanding RR brigades as I built way too many (didn't know about the changes that had been made). Will those excess labor squads get converted? If not I'm going to have some 10k excess labor squads in the pool in a few months.

-German OOB is now at an all time low, and if present trends continue we should (a big if) see the Axis ready OOB fall to below the 2.5 mil mark next turn. Hopefully.

-Instead of just having brigades dig to their hearts content behind the lines, we are now spreading brigades around like crazy to hold forts that have been built during combat. They are, if you will pardon the pun, holding down the fort.

-Western, Northwestern, Bryansk and Leningrad Fronts are no longer constrained by enemy units, only by their own mps. As can be seen by the screenshot (supply soft factor), the Axis don't have much of anything lying to protect the northern approach to Moscow.

-I included a screenshot of our ten largest armies. Reiter's 44th is the largest, as it has many of the fresh Caucassian divisions. Surprisingly Rokossovky's 13th, with the best W/L record in the Red Army (2:1, 37 and 17 IIRC) is only the 8th largest. It also possesses one AFV that it probably captured from the fascists.

-Manpower pool grew slightly this turn. We gain about 70-100k men in total OOB strength per turn, and loose about 30-50k, for a net of about 30k every turn. I expect/hope to be at about 5 million by the mud.

[notenome]

And the Orel bulge in detail (supply soft factor)

To understand the importance of the Orel bulge simply consider that everything you see west of Orel bar some 8 odd infantry divisions had to be brought up from other sectors of the front. This has drastically reduced Axis reserves everywhere and created several crises along the front.

-Green outlines are the panzer/motorized divisions here that would have been elsewhere. Most came from Western and Southern Front's sector.

-Blue outline is a mountain division that has been railed in from the south. That could be trouble.

-Red Xs are where three Axis soft units got punked by a motorized raid. As a bonus I also clipped the rail line.

-4th Shock Army (all those Guards) is preparing for an attack on Orel's southern flank together with SW Front's 12th Army. 26th Army (STAVKA) will strike from the north.

-Black line is our target frontline by end of February. roughly 50 miles in 5 turns for Volkhov, Bryansk and 1st, 2nd, 3rd Shock Armies. 20-30 miles for 4th Shock, 26th, 12th Armies.

[randallw]

Beware of February; the blizzard effects are wearing off and replacements seem to be getting back into the German units. Your frontline units worn down in fighting can get hit hard.

[notenome]

Yeah, February is a major concern of mine. That said, while German strength (in manpower) grew in the first half of January, it is now at an all time low. Especially now that 821 has been forced to put panzers on the frontline, I can't rigthly stop but I am starting to formulate where I want my frontlines to be.

[gingerbread]

Your Labor squads cost zero ARM, so no loss (well, the AP's). Men from disbands go directly to Active pool.

[Flaviusx]

You are within reach of grabbing major objectives. Kaluga, Orel, even Rzhev and Vyazma are in play. Alas, I think his commitment to Bryansk will nix that one, which is a real pity.

You are very lucky to retain a motorized division this far into the game. That sucker could turn into a pumpkin at any time though. Still, you are finally getting into his rear SW of Kulaga, up until now he's been able to stay just out of reach.

I applaud the decision to move the rifle brigades forward to occupy forts built on the front proper. This is much better than banishing them to the far rear where they simply spin their wheels to little or no effect, and gives your frontline depth. But you are still trying to build a fort line on the Don, and this is basically not going anywhere until the weather clears up. Parenthetically, I know the airborne has given you problems, but if you can figure out how to drop them, you could really do some damage with them now that things are opening up by Kaluga.

[governato]

Brigades are very useful to get 'Civilian Labor Parties' (15.3.2.3) to work once the brigade is placed in or just East of city, urban and town hex. CLPs will *not* start work on empty hexes, so brigades are an efficient way to get the ball rolling. While there is no way to know for sure that CLP are 'at work', the added construction value of CLPs can be several times that of the brigade itself if enemy units are 'within 12 hexes'. So towns just behind the front lines is the best place to place them.
Close to a medium sized manpower center a brigade assisted by CLPs can build or push an existing fort up to level 2 in a few turns. [edit: an obvious 'post blizzard' place would be close to Moscow, where the construction value of CLPs amounts to several Sapper Regiments].

[Fishbed]

A good surrender from the SS division in Kaluga and the Pz Div in Orel would be enough for you to settle down on some good winter lines with the feeling of having accomplished something. So far it's great already.

[notenome]

I was thinking about that, isn't Das Reich already scheduled to leave anyways? So wouldn't that make it a moot point?

[Blubel]

No. I would have to be rebuild first.

[Fishbed]

Yes, as Blubel says, if I am not wrong, it will have to be rebuilt first. Even if you damage it a lot without killing it for good, the unit will become static somewhere in Germany at the withdrawal date and won't leave the map before it reaches again 75% of its TOE (sucking needed replacements in the process). Whatever you'll cause as damage will have to be repleted before it leaves the map as long as it brings it under 75%, so the more losses you'll cause the more it will matter (utter destruction being preferable of course), best case scenario being he'll lose everything in this division if you kill it before withdrawal + 75% of a fresh SS division TOE.

[notenome]

January 29th, 1942 (turn 33)

Major milestones this week. Kalinin is evacuated, which is huge. This goes a long way to protecting Moscows Northern flank. Also, the Germans fall below 2.5 million ready troops. More Guards promotions, bringing our total up to 30. Readiness stands at a ratio of 2.7:1.

Whilst the Nazis look desperately thin NW of Moscow, 821 has taken to doublestacking divisions SW of the city, it seems he really wants to hold the bulge near the capital. Still, what will cause the Germans to retreat from their positions was never meant to be a frontal assault, but flanking attacks coming from Western front and the Orel Bulge.

Worth noting is the fact that 821 seems to have misjudged our intentions as far as the Orel bulge is concerned. He has flooded the line with mechanized troops and even a mountain division, which is great. A direct push on Orel was never the goal, as you may recall, but rather to destabilize the Axis lines. Those troops are largely being wasted, and hopefully this will lead to less Axis reserve activations during my turn.

In the far South, we have either broken or the Axis have evacuated the last of the lvl 2 forts. The Donbass seems like an impossibility, so our focus here is more attritional combined with achieving some riverlines to act as early defenses. Lines in the south are roughly historical so there isn't much to complain about, when you think of it.

The only real territorial goals now are in the Moscow Area. Everywhere else its mostly attritional.

[notenome]

Fishbed and Blubel, yes you are both absolutely right in that regard.

Here's an oddity: Soviet air production/pools etc. Notice how we have vast quantities of LAGGs and PE3s amongst other assorted aircraft, whilst the few air groups that are forming are composed of Yak-7s and Il-2s. Now I love my little Il-2s, but there's some 1-1.5k aircraft that could be be flying on the front if the AI built those damned air groups.

Soviet aircraft production right now is 390 per turn, which far outstrips our aircraft production. As I use airpower aggressively, I need those aircraft on the frontlines.