GC41 tehb123(beekeeper)ger vs Saper(sov)

[beekeeper]

15 - 62 ap kill
kalinin, voronezh ( 2 factory il2, all ap)

[beekeeper]

15 losses

[beekeeper]

16c

[beekeeper]

16s

[beekeeper]

16losses

[beekeeper]

17 - last turn of summer =)
losses sov -
factory kv1, t50(t34\42), t34\41, 2 - il2 , li2,1 lagg3
80ар, 40hi

[beekeeper]

i 4 turn could not kill the Rzhev-Vyazemsky poket, and the Soviet Union digged 3 lvl fort at Moskov =(

[beekeeper]

17oob and panzerwaffe after walk in ussr =)

[Peltonx]

Good game. He lost allot of arm, but hung on to Moscow.

Draw so far.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

He lost allot of arm, but hung on to Moscow.

Draw so far.

I'd disagree with that. Clear german victory so far. Sure alot will depend on how Beekeeper handles the blizzard periode. 80 arm are alot thats around 22% of the total arms production. This will hinder the '42 army's come back and their ability over time to build art divs and so on. Wont hinder the inf build up but all supportive types will most likely hurt. So u might have the CV to attack, but ability to cause casulties and disrupt will be less.

40% of T-34 production lost, this wont necesarrily hurt that much long time as u have quite a surplus, but this does means the surplus is cutdown dramaticly. Wont mean u cant build the tank armies, but u cant start to lose T-34s in abundance, if so then i forsee problems.

50% of the IL2 production gone. Well, airwar doesnt matter that much in game, but losing 50% of the primary ground strike aircraft does mean if saper isnt of the type that manages his airwar this can become a problem. Again as with T-34 u lost ur sure surplus and the build up of shaz reg's will be slower. U certainly forced to diversify into more plane types for air-ground missions, and u will have to handle the airwar much more carefully. U cant just throw ground strike aircraft away with out thot any more.
When said that airwar doesnt matter that much i get the feeling that ppl tend to unestimate the ability of GS to disrupt an enemy. Cutting down on modified CV, especially the defending one. Ppl just see no losses and say it has no effect and doesnt see the disruptive effect cuz its more hidden.

KV loss, doesnt matter any bit in as far as the KVs lost. To few in units to matter, doesnt provide any CV and u got a surplus. The problem will be long term as in its 50% of IS production lost. There are few soviet tanks that can destroy panthers and tigers and u just lost 50% of tanks that are able and around 25% of overall production of AFVs (adding top SU/ISU) with that capabilty.(just look at the T 34-85 vs panthers test done some while ago)
Considering that germans alrdy generally seem to have an abundance of AFVs late war its simply a no brainer to just evac 1 of the KV factory when ever germans come within 50 MPs of Leningrad. Cost is what? 1500ish RR cap.
Take that together with arms lost = AT/art capabilty lost, i wouldnt worry if i was Beekeeper mid to later war about having tanks way in surplus of historic numbers. At leased if so its entire his own fault.

Last, but not least manpower. '42 manpower lvls wont be pretty again hindering the come back ability of the russian army. Considering russian casulties so far. A good '42 offensive on top of this will break the russian come back ability, i would expect that of Beekeeper.

Any how i dont think the game will make it so far that the long term effects will be seen, the game will be conceded long before.

All in all a clear german advantage at this point.

Rasmus

[Flaviusx]

Sovs are getting spanked hard here, Pelton. Red army is in terrible shape, under 4 million.

[janh]

Nothing to add to the last two comments, the advantage is very clear at this point. I would even be surprised if your opponent managed to put up even a decent blizzard offensive. His fighting elements must be in pretty bad shape given the losses and the ~3.8M men left. I don't think he will have a chance to make big strides towards Berlin before mid 44, way too late given how deep you are already in his territory. And your 42 summer offensive may grep a lot more.

[timmyab]

I'd have the Germans comfortably in front here as well.Just stay out of trouble in the blizzard and you should be able to seal it in 42.

[Peltonx]

The arm hit is not that bad vs TDV he lost 74 and he destoried me in 42. Its what you build, not how much junk you have ask M60 with his 8+ million men in 42. I have rolled several poorly built 7+ million men armys in 42. Kamil lost 88 arm and Hoooper 78. They all won. TDV was all 1.06 and Kamil switched in January.

The 3.8 million is a consern, but I think he will be at 6.5 million by June 42.

My 1st game vs TDV he had 3.9 million and almost blizzarded me to death.

I think its a draw, because a great blizzard O can come from and army with less then 4 million and a uber crappy Blizzard O from an army with 4,5+ million.

Until I see the Blizzard and summer the game is a draw based on past personal results.

Both player have done good but nothing that cant easly be recovered from.

[Peltonx]

One other thing is very a miss only 3.3 million russian deaths? The army is at 3.7 million?

Thats a below average # of kills and the army is below average for sure.

Vs 8421 3.2 million killed and SHC had 4.3 million men.

Also the tank industry is junk and means little, the units are junk. Great for occupying hexes that have been cleared by art and rifle corp is about it.

He be better of in 42 with out them. No drain on armaments. Its a wash. IF the GHC had taken Moscow I say game set match.

Trucks are everything to the Red army.

I cant figure out why the army is so small with the average loses?

[821Bobo]

Probably SHC was going with 50%TOE over the summer and now are 2 million men sitting in manpower pool and waiting for Blizzard.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

One other thing is very a miss only 3.3 million russian deaths? The army is at 3.7 million?

Thats a below average # of kills and the army is below average for sure.

Vs 8421 3.2 million killed and SHC had 4.3 million men.

Which was in what version?
3.3 lost +3.7 oob = 7.0 mio passed through by this point.

In game u start at 4m and gets 365k in reinforcements(havent count all the 65 or 90 men shells sure they are another 5-10k) by turn 17. Getting produced manpower accurate is some what harder. Still u start at 3937 before turn 1 and with land losses he at less than 2000 now, in my best guess. Around 3000 on average if with a liniar decline which it wouldnt quite be, but lets assume. So 17 turns times 3000*50= 2.550.000
Then there are kick backs from disabled pool. They're at 4k per turn now but obviously been less, but lets say 17*2k=34k

2.550k+365k+4000k+34k=6.949k. Damn pretty accurate tho i alrdy counted in the turn 17 for SHC which they naturally havent done as its the german turn along with uncertainty of average manpower production will account for a deviation.

ORIGINAL: 821Bobo

Probably SHC was going with 50%TOE over the summer and now are 2 million men sitting in manpower pool and waiting for Blizzard.

Riiiiight, see above. 2m in pools would require u get 4.55m in the 17 turns in manpower production or 267k per turn, with the curent losses. Funny since max if u havent lost a single manpower center in all the 17 turn is 3937*50=196800. Jeez.

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Also the tank industry is junk and means little, the units are junk. Great for occupying hexes that have been cleared by art and rifle corp is about it.
He be better of in 42 with out them. No drain on armaments. Its a wash

Well since if ur sig is still correct it seems u have limited experience in the post 43 game. So ur view is in large formed from the early game experience. Sure the 42 Tank corps are crap and not the thing that makes a difference. Come late 43 and 44 the tank and mech corps are a different beast. Well if u have any tanks to put in em.

ORIGINAL: Pelton
IF the GHC had taken Moscow I say game set match.

Guess we will see, snow hasnt begun yet. U can still advance there, so well guess we will see what happens.

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Trucks are everything to the Red army.

Sure they are importand for supply and well IMHO too for more, but inf div and inf corps arent truck hogs. U can make an inf army with out, so why are they so importand too u?

ORIGINAL: Pelton
I cant figure out why the army is so small with the average loses?

Look above and also this is early before the mud, dunno if they play with random or not so lets see if there is any mud. Obvisouly with 4 mud turns there would be a rise in SHC OOB, tho a few good axis snow turns could erase that. Btw take a look at current the SHC 42 modifier. It wont get better.

ORIGINAL: Pelton
The arm hit is not that bad vs TDV he lost 74 and he destoried me in 42. Its what you build, not how much junk you have ask M60 with his 8+ million men in 42. I have rolled several poorly built 7+ million men armys in 42. Kamil lost 88 arm and Hoooper 78. They all won. TDV was all 1.06 and Kamil switched in January

Sure if u play a game where live and die by '42. If u also plan for a longer game the longer the game goes on the more the lack of arm will be a problem. Adapt tactics and strategies to the current situasion.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[gingerbread]

There is 800k in the initial pool as well.

[Walloc]

Hi Gingerbread

Thx for the correction, I had sorta figured that in. I apparently didnt remember the number correctly tho. My memory was that it was 400k.
Since u dont actually produce any manpower on turn 1 so u will have to take 200k'ish from my math above. Further more the turn 2 production will enter the transite pool and not be availble in units until turn 3. That push will continue so ur 1 turn behind in availble manpower. Taking another 100k out, in all 300k. So i had just cancelled those 2 numbers out, cuz I had remembered them as being near equal.

Any how that leaves the actual availble difference at around 500k. So that should be added to my above post, presumably having around that in saper's active pool.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[beekeeper]

oob 20