Rhine or Ruin (no glvaca)

[Flaviusx]

Presumably somewhere in the vicinity of Yaroslavl.

The Svir line is not defensible. It always falls like a house of cards once Leningrad goes, and then the great northern crackup is on. If that's the result you want, fine. I think it's a ridiculous and fantastical one and does far more violence to the historicity of the game than a Finnish cork which merely reduces Finland's role in the war to historical proportions.

If you want to stop the Finns, it must be done in Karelia proper. Otherwise, you're looking at a Soviet sauve qui peut which will only stabilize at a point considerably to the east. We've seen this time and again. Too many Soviet players have somehow convinced themselves that this is ok, and everything will be all right because Finnish morale will degenerate. By the time this happens, it is much too late. The right and proper response is to stuff them well before things get out of hand.

[Michael T]

Could you guys take this discussion about the Finns somewhere else please. I don't doubt its validity in debate but this is meant to be an AAR. Thanks.

[heliodorus04]

My apologies.

My simple view on it is this:
IF people believe it is politically valid for Stalin to abandon Leningrad or Moscow as long as he gets the factories out, I can't see it as inconsistent for Mannerheim to take advantage of an obvious strategic blunder in the Karelian. That's all.

Again, I remain fine with Finland being removed from the game.

Flavius, the rationale for your position as you give it above is vindictiveness because you're upset with the Soviet 1941 capabilities (with which I sympathize). It is a position that makes for awful game patching (see Dark Age of Camelot and Warhammer Online by Mythic for how that plays out).

Done, out. Play on.

[Michael T]

Soviet end T10.

Some interesting developments have occurred. It would seem my opponent has added the subtle art of misinformation and subterfuge to his bow. It’s a little disconcerting not being entirely sure as to the whereabouts of a Pz Gp.

AGN

On T9 4th Pz Gp was seen to be redeployed about 40 miles south west of Novgorod. This prompted a withdrawal by my units defending the exposed forward line of the Shelon river, for self preservation. Now, on T10 I *believe* 4th Pz Gp has moved further to the south and east to a point 40 miles east of V Luki (see map). This is my best guess as my recon has not been completely successful. But 4th Pz Gp has disappeared from the radar around Leningrad.

Hitlerite infantry continue to make an expensive advance toward the Volkov. Leningrad still has a tenuous land link.

AGC

The combined 2nd and 3rd Pz Gp's have now edged south and have advanced to a position between Bryansk and Kaluga. Tula is threatened. It only has 6 ARM left in it now as the panic stricken factory bosses have packed up their wares and headed east.

AGS

Half of 1st Pz Gp has gone missing for 2 turns. I *think* they may be north west of Sumy (see map), preparing or ready for an advance in to my previously undefended centre (at T8 I had zilch in the centre, Southwestern front slid north to fill the gap). The missing mech units could be anywhere though really because recon has failed to confirm their whereabouts. The rest of 1st Pz Gp is still around Kharkov. Stalino seems safe for the moment, or is it?

Stavka considered a counter attack to relieve the brave Kharkov defenders, but in the end decided to leave them to their fate…we move further east. Air supplies are flown in to an airfield in the pocket. At least their CV won't be 1.

SU OOB is closing in on a healthy 4.7 million. Losses only just reaching the 1.6 million mark. ARM points still well over 600K. With only the Minsk ARM factories lost to date.

T11 will be interesting in so much as where are all these missing German mech units going? We can only guess….

[Peltonx]

Very nice job MT, 4.7 million.

Your Leningrad defences are very strong. GHC will have to set-up the infantry for a frontal assault. No hex is untakeable IF you know how to assault it, even a major river with a lvl 4 fort can be taken.

Moscow looks likely to fall from the screen shot.

You have far far to many troops in the south as Flaviusx pointed out. Just keep him from getting AGA other then that why so many troops?

If hes any good at setting up German assault forses Moscow will fall, if not Leningrad and Moscow will survive. Thats a part of the game few GHC players are good at.

On a side note for the russian side, what would happen if you did a HQ build up before say Leningrad got cut off? The HQ would have several 1000 tons of supplys, would this keep CV topped off for a turn or 2?

This corp supplies are maxed out and have been from turn 7 to 10 with hvy fighting. Possible way around pockets dropping in 1 turn. Not sure how the system works when units get cut off, but something to think about out side the box.

Tanks need gas but infantry need supplies and I know your an out side the box kinda guy.

[Peltonx]

WOW now that I think of it thats probably how TDV did his amazing Red blizzard offensive.

He was 20 hexes past railheads. Guess I have to hit the human vs human 41-42 blizzard and test that out.

Thats got to be some kinda bug, I posted it in tech support area.

I do not see the over flow of supplies going to "city depots" JB

tm.asp?m=3146118



5th star on this post- perfect

[Gorforlin]

WTH how do you come up with this shit?

2900+ supplies heheh how many trucks does that take?

Loop hole # ?

[Michael T]

My focus is preserving my army. This is why I ran so far in the early stages. To avoid unnecessary losses. So naturally all my rail is used moving industry. So there is little capacity to shift large numbers of troops from the south to the north. The supposed excess (I don't believe there is anyhow) is simply a natural accumulation because I have been falling back and not losing masses of troops.

I am not at all concerned if Moscow falls or Leningrad (though I will try to hold them). As long as I don't lose 500K men in the process. If I have 5M troops at the start of the Blizzard I will regain Moscow anyhow. The bottom line is this. IMO if Russia preserves her army in 41 and saves enough Industry she ultimately wins the game. If certain cities hold out so much the better.

Stocking up HQ's prior to isolation makes no difference. You need an airfield to fly some supplies in *after* isolation to get a benefit. So you can have a gazzilion tons of supplies in a HQ but still drop to CV 1 if you get cut off, fly in a mere 5% IIRC of requirements and hey presto CV all good again. Go figure. That’s why I have empty airfields strewn across the map. If guys get cut off and I happen to have an airfield in the pocket I can supply some guys (eg the Kharkov dudes) and make them tougher to kill.

I don't know why you have this large stock of supplies in your HQ. But I do know that sometimes if you advance far enough its actually a bonus if you get cut off. As the HQ will then draw supplies from a captured city and you get way way more gas and supplies than what you would have had you not been cut off. I reported this. It has not been corrected.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

My focus is preserving my army. This is why I ran so far in the early stages. To avoid unnecessary losses. So naturally all my rail is used moving industry. So there is little capacity to shift large numbers of troops from the south to the north. The supposed excess (I don't believe there is anyhow) is simply a natural accumulation because I have been falling back and not losing masses of troops.

I am not at all concerned if Moscow falls or Leningrad (though I will try to hold them). As long as I don't lose 500K men in the process. If I have 5M troops at the start of the Blizzard I will regain Moscow anyhow. The bottom line is this. IMO if Russia preserves her army in 41 and saves enough Industry she ultimately wins the game. If certain cities hold out so much the better.

Stocking up HQ's prior to isolation makes no difference. You need an airfield to fly some supplies in *after* isolation to get a benefit. So you can have a gazzilion tons of supplies in a HQ but still drop to CV 1 if you get cut off, fly in a mere 5% IIRC of requirements and hey presto CV all good again. Go figure. That’s why I have empty airfields strewn across the map. If guys get cut off and I happen to have an airfield in the pocket I can supply some guys (eg the Kharkov dudes) and make them tougher to kill.

I don't know why you have this large stock of supplies in your HQ. But I do know that sometimes if you advance far enough its actually a bonus if you get cut off. As the HQ will then draw supplies from a captured city and you get way way more gas and supplies than what you would have had you not been cut off. I reported this. It has not been corrected.

I have known about the city fuel draw for a long while, but seems like supplies work same way.

Seems to be a hex limit on the draw down side. If citys are X hexes away or if there are no trucks fuel/supplies stay with the HQ.

Basicly the less trucks you have after a build up the better, its stuck in the HQ is how it appears to work. Thats why I do them at the end of the turn and move HQed units from last turn last seems to help keep the dump topped off.

The cut off rules need an over haul, if cut off units have 1000's of tons of supplies and fuel they should not drop so easyly.

What do we know we are a couple of dummies

Should be a morale hit over time. 10 pts per turn cut off. To go from 10 cv to one and have 1000's of supplies is stupid to say the least.

WiTP logistics is controlled by shipping and is easy to handle, but wite is totally different and has been leaky from day one.

I am hoping witw logistic system is not as full of holes as wite has been.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

My focus is preserving my army. This is why I ran so far in the early stages. To avoid unnecessary losses. So naturally all my rail is used moving industry. So there is little capacity to shift large numbers of troops from the south to the north. The supposed excess (I don't believe there is anyhow) is simply a natural accumulation because I have been falling back and not losing masses of troops.

I am not at all concerned if Moscow falls or Leningrad (though I will try to hold them). As long as I don't lose 500K men in the process. If I have 5M troops at the start of the Blizzard I will regain Moscow anyhow. The bottom line is this. IMO if Russia preserves her army in 41 and saves enough Industry she ultimately wins the game. If certain cities hold out so much the better.

Stocking up HQ's prior to isolation makes no difference. You need an airfield to fly some supplies in *after* isolation to get a benefit. So you can have a gazzilion tons of supplies in a HQ but still drop to CV 1 if you get cut off, fly in a mere 5% IIRC of requirements and hey presto CV all good again. Go figure. That’s why I have empty airfields strewn across the map. If guys get cut off and I happen to have an airfield in the pocket I can supply some guys (eg the Kharkov dudes) and make them tougher to kill.

I don't know why you have this large stock of supplies in your HQ. But I do know that sometimes if you advance far enough its actually a bonus if you get cut off. As the HQ will then draw supplies from a captured city and you get way way more gas and supplies than what you would have had you not been cut off. I reported this. It has not been corrected.

Stocking up before isolation is a huge boon for German mech units and we have both used that to our advatage in the past.

I think I have posted on that in a special thread all on its own over a yr ago.

[Flaviusx]

Michael, your defense in the south is extravagant and uneconomical. You could easily strip it. OTOH, there's no need to do this yet, as the German hasn't shown his hand.

You do not need to evacuate each and every armament point. (There may indeed be long term problems with this.) It's ok to leave some of it behind and allow some rail for troop transfers. If you write off everything west of the Dnepr from the getgo, you can evacuate the entire south by turn 10. That gives you options and frees up stuff for duty elsewhere. I'm guessing you are still working on getting the Donbas stuff out, as a result of trying to save everything other thank Minsk. If your opponent was a bit more aggressive about threatening factories he could really put the squeeze on you here by, say, getting in your face by Tula. I prefer to write off some of the industry early on and never allow for this kind of thing in the late summer.

Your game metatheory is good enough to get you into 1942, nothing more. The game isn't won in 1941 merely by surviving with your industry and a reasonably strong Red Army. These are necessary but not sufficient conditions. If you give up too much territory you can fall behind the curve, and underestimating the importance of Moscow is a mistake, although I agree that losing it temporarily isn't fatal so long as it can be taken back during the winter.

I think you have an chance of holding Leningrad now. Crossing the Neva without panzers isn't quite as easy as that, especially with some luck from reserves. He pulled them out a bit prematurely imo. He could still isolate it, and the garrison will be hard to maintain if that happens, fair warning. Stuff in there will tend to wither away at an alarming rate.

[Walloc]

I would totally agree with Flav. I understand ur overalll goal and why u think it will work. There are absolutly merits in it, but and i've critisized this earlier too in the thread. Some times there is no need for rapid fall backs.
While u might dodge a few bullits here in the way that ur opponents way of attacking and one should ofc take that into account.

1. Having a huge army especially for blizzard is in it self a good thing.

Problems.
2. Have u evaced the HI to actually sustain a large army(yes i think Glvaca could have done a better job at recogniese ur strategy and pressured ur evacing more than he has. Presumably forcing u to leave more HI or at leased had to make choices more so than now)

3. Pulling back to far. Things are a bit up in the air and there are still things to be seen. Do Leningrad survive(u might have dogde a bullit here), Do Moscow?
Fact is if u lose both tho counting on taking back Moscow in blizzard who says u can hold it in the summer. Plus the fact manpower have the possibilty of getting destroyed when ever a city hex falls. No way of getting that back. Damaged doesnt necesarrily produce dependiing on damage, for a while. Having russian cities fall many times over, while securing some part of the manpower in evac's overall this will hurt russian long time.

IF one lose both and other cities combined with the general withdraw strategy, while much is still up in the air how much u will capture back in teh blizzard and how much ur opponent will take back in 42. U can have a manpower replacement rate on combined axis vs russian which lead to a situasion where u in 42 get down to only between 2-1 to 3-1 depending on land loss.
Doesnt sound very east front'isk, but and i dont have the time to show the math now but is non the less a reality. Ok, what does that matter if u have a large army. Again alot have to do with how much ur opponent recogniese this facts and if he starts to attack with this in mind and use this to his advantage. The way that attrition works it will hurt russian side more so than axis side. Among other things this means losses arent equal. Taken together with how the german manpower situasion is the first year especially if compared to the historic one this gives a german player that have a blizzard strategy, in preserving his army to a greatest extend reasonble, while losing as little territory possible. That will have a '42 where u have a situasion where attrition simply work too slow in ur favor. Hurting long term.

Ofc this all matters nada of u able to make lighting advances, but just see this as a cautious word of warning. I have much faith in ur tactical and operational ability and i dont think Glvaca moves in a way that seems to regcogniese he manpower facts. If those 2 things hadnt been true I would see real dangers to how ur strategy would work out. Especially since u can save ur army and pull back slower. Its a skill too.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[Peltonx]

I have to agree with Flaviusx and Walloc based on my game with M60 and many others.

He lost Moscow during November and gained it back in December.

I findly read M60's thread yesterday, as he played a mirror game of what you are tring to do.

1. Save the Red army. M60 only lost 3 million men as of turn 25.
1A. Save industry, M60 saved about everything other then the plane factorys in Moscow.
2. Moscow fell turn 22 Manpower production fell to 93k.
3. M60 quickly regained the city in just 6 turns.
4. Manpower out put as of turn 48 only 85,000, thats after having it back for 20 turns. 68% of per war levels.
5. Turn 30 Russian army was 6 million strong and German army under 3 million.
6. On turn 48 M60 had 920,000 armament pts saved up.
7. by June of 42 GHC had 3.6 million men and only 2300 tanks heheh normal for me and SHC 6.76 million
8. SHC loses were only 4.5 million and German 1.6.

Why did I win?

Going after arm means zip now as GHC as of 1.05 and we are on 1.06 peeps. Saving every single arm is just plain stupid if you take the time and simply read a few ARR's that get into 42. SHc can easly easly lose 35 and probably more like 50-60 and it will mean nothing zip zero. 70 is what I beleive tipping point is. Flaviusx's strategy is 100% dead on right. You should be railing around units more to save the one thing that matters now, manpower pts!!!

The fact is during the summer of 1942 with the Red army only getting 85,000 replasements I can easly out grind the red army not even counting pockets.

So save your army and arm pts, but you will have no troops to give all them new guns to.

M60's only mistake was building Corps during 42 and not more divisions.

M60 is 100% right HI does matter. You dont need to save allot. I am guessing 10ish, but it does matter.

From what I see your tring something that someone esle has alrdy done and it did not work.

Moscow is huge huge huge.

Once I ground down his army and pocketed a few units he was helpess and I could push east another 20 to 30 hexes over running yet more manpower centers.

Then the problem for M60 was I could grind with him in 1943! Not totally I figured my manpower would drop only 200,000 over a yr, but clearly more then enough to hold the line east of moscow NP.

I personally target manpower centers.

Lets do the math.

So from 120,000 to 85,000. But SHC always losses some manpower. Based on past AAR's most game if Moscow is held the number is 100k ish.

So 15k x 52 = 780,000 men That doesn't sound right?

Its is vs 8421 I did not take moscow and his army was at 7.5 million by June 42. There are other AAR's with same numbers and they add up to basicly same #'s.

So when you lose Moscow he just killed 780,000 men over the next 12 months.

Chances are if you lose it he will retake it in summer of 42 and you take another hit heheh

You cann't rail around manpower centers, but you can rail around your units with amazing speed to the right spots to try to save them.

[Peltonx]

Wait 10 mins after I post something so I can reread it and correct all my errors hehe

If as GHC player you take X manpower centers and the SHC railed out everything+kitchen sink and only lost 3 million.

You still have the clear upper hand and its 100% your game to lose.

[Peltonx]

More #'s.

The poeple that hold Moscow on average lose about 3.4 to 3.6 million men, but have on average about 400,000 more men come June 42.

So sure fighting forward costs more, but its like a good investment. You invest a few 100,000 men and get back 2x what you lost and then more if you hold it during 42.

There is a fine balance of which few SHC players have found.

Flaviusx knows what he is talking about when it comes to the SHC.

[Michael T]

I don't think I am going to strike any problems using this strategy. I have been claiming it’s a no lose risk free victory for the SU if done correctly for a long time now. I see no reason *yet* that will change my view. The proof is in the pudding. If I go down then I will be the first to admit I was wrong. And quite honestly if my strategy fails it would be a good thing as far as the WITE engine goes. But I firmly believe this run and preserve strategy will win me the game. I have confidence in my tactical skill to out manoeuvre any German in 42 as long as I have enough well armed troops. This point of having enough troops seems to be the debatable issue. Lets assume Moscow is worth ~5000 men a turn. But if I lose 500,000 men holding it (or maybe even still lose it) that’s equivalent to two years worth of its manpower production, not to mention the loss of ARM points in equipment. For me it’s a no brainer, I would much rather keep my 500,000 men to use in the blizzard and beyond. Until they make cities more lucrative to hold or capture I think my idea is valid.

His dilemma will surface soon enough. I can't give too much away because I can't control what will get passed back to him from these posts, so my cards are always held close to my chest. But I do listen to your comments/ideas. But after 17 wins straight I am sticking with what works for me.

[Peltonx]

Flaviusx has not lost and doesn't lose Moscow.

I have yet to see you in a 42 game as a German or Russian so I am thinking based on what I do know you don't have any exp in 42.

Problem is the guy you are fighting has zero also heheeh

[Flaviusx]

I think Moscow is worth more like a full rifle division a turn although the exact numbers will vary depending on the manpower multiplier. It's important for reasons besides that, though. Losing the HI from there may be enough to create supply problems in 42 if you are cutting it close. (I've never had these supply problems, but I've also never lost Moscow, and am wondering if this is the tipping point, especially if the Red Army gets too big in 1942.) Moscow is a major rail nexus, and your rail cap will take a big hit if it goes. And Moscow is an excellent anchor for your line. Putting all of that together, it is well worth trying to hold.

BTW, I think you could even consider stealing units from the Leningrad area now, or at a minimum not reinforcing it any further. What you have up there is more than enough to stop a purely infantry advance past the Volkhov, although the city itself may yet fall (or not, this is going to be close.) I doubt the Axis will even try to do anything up there beyond taking the city as a matter of fact.

[Michael T]

Nothing has gone to Leningrad for 2 or 3 turns now. Don't get me wrong. I intend to try and hold Moscow. But I will not sacrifice an entire front or two in that process. Who knows what will ensue, maybe I will hold one or the other, or lose both. What if I end up holding more manpower and rail in the south? All I know is I am quite happy at this point in time. But next turn I might find half my army cut off, so one can't count the chickens yet.

This business of not playing in to 42 before is wrong. I have actually played 2 games as Soviet in to early 42 and one as German in to early 42. But aside from that my general east front gaming counts for mid/late war experience. Pelton when my game with Glenn is over I will be happy to take you on with my hordes of Russians. But that might be some time away yet. I don't have anymore time right now to do more than one game at a time. I only get about 3 hours a night plus some extra time on the weekend if I'm lucky.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

Nothing has gone to Leningrad for 2 or 3 turns now. Don't get me wrong. I intend to try and hold Moscow. But I will not sacrifice an entire front or two in that process. Who knows what will ensue, maybe I will hold one or the other, or lose both. What if I end up holding more manpower and rail in the south? All I know is I am quite happy at this point in time. But next turn I might find half my army cut off, so one can't count the chickens yet.

This business of not playing in to 42 before is wrong. I have actually played 2 games as Soviet in to early 42 and one as German in to early 42. But aside from that my general east front gaming counts for mid/late war experience. Pelton when my game with Glenn is over I will be happy to take you on with my hordes of Russians. But that might be some time away yet. I don't have anymore time right now to do more than one game at a time. I only get about 3 hours a night plus some extra time on the weekend if I'm lucky.

Be an interesting game, but I have 3 as German on going and had a russian on going that had to be stopped because of RL issues. I might start another Russian one, but not until September now because of time issues. I really want to try out the cav build up thing in blizzaard heheh.

Mybe this winter.

Again you are doing very good as I stated a few posts back.

Just supportting Flaviusx pt on manpower,HI (M60) and how important it is a GHC to take Moscow.

I dont beleive I have seen an AAR where Moscow has fallen and the GHC not won.

Wow been what 18 months and we still really dont kow what the tipping pts are for sure or what combo of what.

Game was worth allot more then 80$

[&o] 2by3