War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[HansBolter]

Don't forget that you have sources of fuel at the East Coast and Britain. I set up CS convoys for fuel from both those bases to Cristobal. Losing Oil to IJN raids on the West Coast is not gonna run you dry. In fact you can supply as much fuel as you need to Auckland, Sydney and SoPac entirely from Cristobal.

PJH is wasting his time on the West Coast and it can't be anything more than a distraction.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not really worried about the oil.  Really I'm not worried about any industry on the West Coast, with one exception, though I admit my lack of worry may be due to ignorance of what I'm facing.  I think I can repair whatever damage he does and draw what I need from East Coast, etc.  (I already have a big network of supply and fuel convoys running from East Coast to Capetown.) 
 
The one exception is aircraft factories.  That's the one thing I don't want to see damaged right now - at least in a way that would affect production of the planes I need the most.
 
However, Steve can rack up tremendous Victory Points by Strat Bombing (Alfred posted on this at length near the start of the AAR).
 
On the other hand, Steve probably can't rack them up under the current conditions.  He can't efficiently attack using only LBA from Alliford Bay, due to the distance and my ability to CAP in big numbers my Washington bases.  So he has to use the KB stationed south to force me to divide my air forces.  But it obviously costs him fuel and opportunities to park the KB here.  (I can act further forward around Oz and in the Indian Ocean as long as the KB is far away; anothe strategy I can consider is bringing in my carriers to contest the KB, parking close to LA to benefit from massed LRCAP, though that's a risky proposition).
 
There will be lots of thinking going on for both of us in the coming weeks.
 
It's fun to be involved in a game like this.
 

[Lomri]

I'm no where near qualified to make this speculation. But I wonder if attritting your air frames up north might eventually tempt you to draw down your CAP over your aircraft factories to the point that KB could be used to hit them. I imagine PJH isn't going to bet the bank on this ONE thing, but it could be something he is keeping an eye on. Are you getting any Glen sightings over your southern cities?

I'm not looking at a map and I've never really bothered to look at where oil is generated in the States, but it seems like assuming you'll be fine on oil/fuel might be a bad idea if PJH has done his homework. I could be way off base here of course, the East Coast hex might generate plenty (seems to in my game!).

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

KB: KB remains parked off the southwestern coast and commits the first IJ strategic bombing raid of the war (and the first strat points I've ever los in an AE game). Kates in big numbers hit the oil facilitiy at Bakersfield, scoring 30 hits, which reduced production by 92 units, which resulted in 192 points (I'm not sure how the math works)...

Each damaged centre yields 2 strategic VPs. Destroying an undamaged centre yields 20 strategic VPs. Destroying an already damaged centre yields 18 strategic VPs.

Alfred

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not really worried about the oil.  Really I'm not worried about any industry on the West Coast, with one exception, though I admit my lack of worry may be due to ignorance of what I'm facing.  I think I can repair whatever damage he does and draw what I need from East Coast, etc.  (I already have a big network of supply and fuel convoys running from East Coast to Capetown.) 

The one exception is aircraft factories.  That's the one thing I don't want to see damaged right now - at least in a way that would affect production of the planes I need the most.

However, Steve can rack up tremendous Victory Points by Strat Bombing (Alfred posted on this at length near the start of the AAR).

On the other hand, Steve probably can't rack them up under the current conditions.  He can't efficiently attack using only LBA from Alliford Bay, due to the distance and my ability to CAP in big numbers my Washington bases.  So he has to use the KB stationed south to force me to divide my air forces.  But it obviously costs him fuel and opportunities to park the KB here.  (I can act further forward around Oz and in the Indian Ocean as long as the KB is far away; anothe strategy I can consider is bringing in my carriers to contest the KB, parking close to LA to benefit from massed LRCAP, though that's a risky proposition).

There will be lots of thinking going on for both of us in the coming weeks.

It's fun to be involved in a game like this.

It is much harder for Japan to engage in a strategic bombing campaign against Allied industrial targets than it is conversely for the Allies to engage in one against Japan.

However, if Japan does get into position to threaten Allied industry, either by aerial bombardment or by terrestrial capture, the devastation on Allied capabilities to wage war is much greater. That is because destroyed Allied industrial centres cannot be rebuilt.

That is why a terrestrial advance from Prince Rupert is so devasting. Japan merely has to occupy the inland Canadian industrial bases for a single turn and the Allied industry is transmogrified as per s.13.6 of the manual.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

2/24/42

KB: Kates armed with bombs damage two transports at Alameda. The CAP from San Fran did a decent job considering a surprising paucity of numbers (I would have expected alot more coverage from the 200 fighters based there, though two squadrons had just switched from P-40B to P-40E and may not have been ready to contribute; now they are). Overall, nothing major today today. (The American carriers continue to move north and are now NW of the Canal Zone channel).

West Coast: No sweeps or raids by enemy LBA today. For some reason, my bombers refuse to fly against Bella Bella. I have targeted the base by 4EB at a number of bases, plus Marauders at Prince Rupert, but not one mission has flown over several weeks. The squadrons have commanders with decent aggression levels, so I'm not sure what the problem is. I's not critical yet, as most of my bombers are busy flying supply to Coal Harbor. Until Steve gets his hand on that base, the threat from enemy LBA is relatively small.

DEI: An Aussie brigade will reinforce Cocos Island. I may send even more there, short term. IN Allied hands, Cocos would be a perpetual threat to Japan, and I don't think Steve can mount a good campaign to take the island without the KB, as long as the Allies maintain a good carrier presence. So I intend to build Cocos large if the KB remains committed to the West Coast. Koepang and Soerabaja will likely fall to Japan in the next week or two or three. Still no concerted move on Sabang or Port Blair, nor or Singapore.

Burma: An intricate dance is underway as the Allies pull back towards Schwebo, hoping ot overwhelm the enemy garrison there (one unit strong). There is some risk the Allied army, which is pretty weak, might get hung up and destroyed, but we'll see.

China: The Japanese are still moving along the extreme wings - down near Kunming and way up and over in the Lanchow sector. Neither move will bear fruit, I think. Steve is also positioning some units to perhaps sever the rail line from Hengyang/Changsha to Kweilin, though I'm moving to counter the threat.

Synopsis: Lots going on in this game. Steve is a good player. This is fun.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Alfred, for the insight. The Allies have each of the bases from Prince Rupert inland garrisoned. That will prevent Steve from using paratroops to seize distant bases followed by strategic movement to break into the interior rapidly. Steve can take Prince Rupert, but from there all bets would be off as he would face a march through forest and mountains while the American divisions moved in to block the way.

I'm also guarding against a similar threat by sea to such bases as Vancouver, Los Angeles and San Diego. Such a move is unlikely, but not impossible if Steve is desperate or very bold or I am very bad.

[Alfred]

Bella Bella is in the Cold Zone. it is currently winter up there.

Check the weather forecast for the Bella Bella hex itself.

Alfred

[BBfanboy]

If you are still trying to get more troops to Coal Harbour, an overland march is possible. Road is available for 3 of the six hexes distance. The remaining three can be traversed in a few weeks march with no supply drop-off nor malaria.[:)] I have marched the base force from Coal Harbour out to Victoria during my games against the AI. I haven't looked to see if there were any issues moving equipment like vehicles or guns during the march - I just wanted the engineers at Victoria.
At this stage the overland march would take too long to help with reducing the threat but once that situation is stabilized it may help build up CH for a counteroffensive to neutralize the AFs further north.

[Canoerebel]

2/25/42

North America: The KB moved further NW and didn't launch any strikes. No LBA raids either. Fairbanks falls. York and Sara might refuel at LA or SD within the week. I am evaluating whether revealing their presence might have any benefits. Probably not, but I'm looking at it.

Elsewhere: Same report as yesterday.

[Canoerebel]

2/26/42 and 2/27/42

North America: The KB retired to the NW, probably going to an Alaskan port to refuel. York and Sara are about 18 hexes SW of San Diego, watiting while my picket destroyers refuel and reestablish a solid picket line off the West Coast.

Australia: SigInt that 18th Division is aboard a Maru bound for Townsville. This would be a rather substantial leap forward since PM is still in Allied hands, but it's not impossible. 27th/B Division safely arrived at Melbourne aboard Queen Elizabeth. Due to high SYS damage, I may go ahead and withdraw the QE even though she has time to make one more high-speed run.

DEI: An Aussie brigade should begin landing at Cocos tomorrow. If she comes ashore in good shape, the island's AV will increase to about 200. Still no sign of imminent enemy move on Singers.

Burma: We'll know in a day or two whether the Allied army here will be trapped in a pocket. I don't think so, but we'll see. To be honest, I don't think it matters either way.

China: The Japanese are still working on both wings plus trying to make some progress in the center, both near Kweilin and near Ankang. I still don't think Steve has enough to threaten unless he brings in substantial reinforcements in the form of divisions from Luzon, but I think that's excactly what he'll do. If Japan commits enough to China, the Chinese can be overwhelmed. I can't stop that, but I think I can slow it to the point that it really doesn't make a huge difference in the game. China falling at the end of 1942 would be a very different proposition from China falling in early 1942.

[jeffk3510]

Dan-
He very well could be going for Townsville. He could also be going for somewhere else, but have the destination set for Towsnville at present to throw you off. This is a trick I have heard some of the Jap players mention to mess with the Allies SigInt..

[Canoerebel]

I'm used to that trick. Q-Ball is good at it and I've played Q-Ball. So I always take that into consideration when I get intel like this. It's an important piece of information, but it's just one piece of a complicated puzzle.

[jeffk3510]

Agreed.

.. just thought I would poke my head in..

[Andav]

I can't imagine a Japanese player actually trying to manipulate the Allied intel. Nope not me. Not a chance. Would never happen ...

Wa

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Andav


I can't imagine a Japanese player actually trying to manipulate the Allied intel. Nope not me. Not a chance. Would never happen ...

Wa

So now we get disinformation about the disinformation. [;)]
As Alice said, this WITP-AE just gets curiouser and curiouser!

[Ingtar]

Isn't that cruiserier and cruiserier?

[Lomri]

Mind posting a screen shot of China and his flanking maneuvers?

[Canoerebel]

Here's a map of the situation in the northern sector of Japan. More info to follow in the daily update.

[Canoerebel]

2/28/42

China Northwest: Big developments here (as reflected on map in preceding post). Cursor indicates Chinese stack of 30 units north of Lanchow. I know this includes at least two divisions. I've known for weeks that something on the order of two divisions was coming this way, so I've moved in enought roops to counter a threat of that size...but just how much more "oomph" is there? I have roughly 1800 AV in the sector with more on the way. Japan tried a para assault against the dot hex, but it failed. I'm using Chinese bombers to try to slow the Japanese advance. This is a worrisome sector, but how effectively can Japan fight this far from a supply source? And how effectively can China defend in the mountains? With interior lines and good defensive terrain I might have an opportunity to stymie Japan's offensive and nip at its long supply line.

China North: The Japanese are also advancing up the road towadrs Ankang. I have a decent army protecting that base and much more around Nanyang. I think I can threaten the rear of the Japanese column so that this vector won't prove promising for Japan. I think.

China Center: Both sides are stretched out on each side of the river between Hengyang and Kweilin. I don't want this railroad interdicted, Stopping such a move is fairly tough. My current thinking is that this is mainly a diversion, but I'm not positive. I wouldn't be shocked to find a bunch of those Luzon divsiions here sometime in the not-too-distant future.

China South: Three small IJ militia units are moving on Kunming. I think I have enough to counter the threat.

Burma: The Allies reclaimed Schewbo, thus opening the route out of Burma, in an important little assault. I may try to defend, or I may pull back slowly towards the fronteir between Burma and India.

Indian Ocean: An Aussie brigade lands at Cocos Island, which now has 225 AV and some engineers to start dealing with infrastructure. An American engineering unit is enroute from Capetown. Steve will now need a division, or at least a prolonged campaign, to take this island. With my carriers there, he can't have it unless he really commits...and if he really commits here that means he's not committed elsewhere. So this is an important little redoubt.

Oz: Quiet today.

North America: A USN picket DD found and got hammered by the KB, west of San Francisco. The DD may not make it back to port, but she did her job well. To my way of thinking, Prince Rupert is not a viable vector of attack for Japan, leaving only two options on the West Coast. Here's how I see things:

a) Prince Rupert: A major landing here might offer Japan a viable way of getting inland and into the interior of the USA, or at least to destroy some Canadian industry by occupation. However, such a move would pretty much require taking interior cities by para asault in order to utilize strategic transprot inland. Since that's no longer possible for Japan, any major invasion would be faced with big American infantry units in the mountain terrain on the very long march inland. It would take a huge commitment and a great deal of time. Such a commitment would have to be so huge that it would free up lots of Allied units to come north to counter the move. IMO, therefore, Prince Rupert is no go for Japan.

b) Strategic Bombing: This is still a viable way to score alot of strat bombing points for Japan. However, Japan cannot do this via LBA from its current bases - distances are too far and it's too easy to max defensive CAP over the available targets. Japan either has to use the KB on raids to the south to split CAP (as Steve just did) and/or seize big airfields (Coal Harbor, etc.) closer to the USA. The former means the KB is tethered to the West Coast, which means the Allies are petty safe in Oz, the Indian Ocean and India, leaving them to act more aggressively. The latter will require alot of resources, some risk (invasions close to mased Allied LBA) plus alot of time to build up the airfields. Time is not Steve's friend and he's already running pretty late. The Allied airforce grows considerably stronger by summer and autumn of 1942.

c) Invasion: Very unlikely, but it is remotely possible that Steve might try to invade a couple of USA bases to destroy industry. San Diego and Los Angelse are probably the most vulnerable. This would be nearly impossible, but I can't complety discount it.

Evaluation of Play: Thus far I don't think either side has scored anything like knockout punches in the game. This has mainly been a game of maneuver. Neither side has taken big risks. Both sides have scored only a few telling blows. The Allies have lost two major ships post Pearl Harbor - CA Exeter at Oosthaven (my bad in not recalling her) and BB New Mexico off Vancouver Island (I fed her to the lions in a move I'm not particularly proud of). Japan has lost only CA Chokai (in the South China Sea at the start of the war) and a few CLs (New Mexico did claim Oi, which had been giving me fits). The Allies have made a few stands here and there - Cocos Island, Sabang, Port Blair, Koepang and Burma. Most of these haven't been contested yet. Steve has big things in mind for China, but he may be taking too long and trying to be too Shermanesque instead of massing and blowing through early. The Allies meekly surrendered Alaska and coastal Canada, thoguh some of the garrisons performed heroically. I'm still thinking Steve has his eyes on Oz and China, but it's still just a bit too early to know for certain or to declare myself certain.