GC41 - Saper222 (Ger) vs Kamil (Sov) (No Saper222)

[KamilS]

T41 center 2 (Soviet)


I keep on sending troops south.

[KamilS]

T41 center/south (Soviet)


This is very important area now, so I plan to build extensive defensive lines here and use river Don as main fall-back position.

[KamilS]

T41 south (Soviet)


This area is slowly stripped out of units.

[KamilS]

T41 OOB


In march I traded space for time. It worked out quite well I think.

[KamilS]

T42 center (German)


Beginning of April and big surprise for me. Germans keep attacking.

[KamilS]

T42 south (German)


More units and further withdrawal will be necessary.

[Flaviusx]

Kamil, your army size is disturbingly low. You had an excellent blizzard, but going into summer of 42 with much less than 6 million is gonna be rough. The Axis army size is rather high despite his heavy losses, and it looks like he preserved his mech very well.

What's your per turn manpower looking like? Armaments? (I'm going to assume supply is fine.)

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Kamil, your army size is disturbingly low. You had an excellent blizzard, but going into summer of 42 with much less than 6 million is gonna be rough.

Exactly. Why i dont think Peltons above predictions will come true, but time will tell. Yeah losing 28 divs are bad, but trick to get moral up fast when below NM, but higher than 50 is wins. Hench they should not be left behind but attached to the attacking armies of Saper's 42 offensive. Get some easy wins as tag alongs to the offensive and they can be made into an effecient force again. Exp will rise too this way. Plus, use some to attack up north where kamils forces are weak for easy wins. Any combination of that, posssibly cycling in and out units doing this if he cant spare all 28 at once, which is likely the case.

The Axis army size is rather high despite his heavy losses

No its not. Its just that no one has bothered to try and take an objective look at the german manpower gains vs losses especially in the first year and compare them to the historic ones. Why even with high blizzard losses u will have a huge 42 german army.
I have looked at it will and make a post some time after im done with the evac guide.

What's your per turn manpower looking like? Armaments? (I'm going to assume supply is fine.)

He said 91k per turn a few posts up, prolly plus the 7k kickback from the wounded pool. Remove the per turn attrition from that and it will give u a good idea of the pace of the rise in the SHC OOB. Not to say any losses taken in GHC attacks.
Retake the area lost in south in the spring and then the Moscow area in an 42 summer offensive and u will see the axis side being able to if not win the war of attrition, then not lose it. That is if Saper doesnt get foolish and stops attacking.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Flavius
The Axis army size is rather high despite his heavy losses

ORIGINAL: Walloc
No its not. Its just that no one has bothered to try and take an objective look at the german manpower gains vs losses especially in the first year and compare them to the historic ones. Why even with high blizzard losses u will have a huge 42 german army.
I have looked at it will and make a post some time after im done with the evac guide.

Rasmus

I don't have the game near, but isn't the 42 GC summer setup about 2.9M Axis (plus manpower pool)? Or am I totally wrong there?
3.3+M looks quite reasonable I think. A lot of reinforcements are coming in for him in the next 10 turns, and I think more hinges now on the state and moral of his Panzers and Mot Divs than on those 28 lost ones. He might need one or two Infantry Armies with a few 80+ divisions that will break open the Soviet Fronts for the Panzers and be able to march up quickly. Morale below 70 usually makes them too slow to connect and secure the Panzer Armies flanks, or support them in combat -- at least in 41 when the Panzer jumps are quite long. Probably in 42 the same holds true as well.

The 28 rebuilds... yes, add them to the combats to gain exp and morale. The can also be useful for reducing pockets to gain morale quickly. By December I would guess these divisions will be around 70 morale again, enough for any defensive role to stop most of what Soviet player can field before 44. I don't see Pelton's prediction come true here either, to be honest. My gut feeling says the Axis player will still have the upper hand in the coming year, but that will be seen.

This blizzard offensive surely was impressive, and I really dislike "misusing" such rules to force an initiative swing. Does anyone remember how many German divisions were historically destroyed by pocketing in 41/42? I recall pretty much none, although some were essentially annihilated by pure combat and attrition, causing corresponding grief for the Soviets and preventing any worse breakthroughs (leading to pockets, besides Demyansk). With such rules affecting the game play very strongly and instantly, the balance of the game swings too much for my taste. Some things should be more natural or intuitive. A reduced Axis Op-tempo due to slightly more powerful Soviets (or more reinforcements by increased manpower factor and lower division rebuild costs) as well as more resilient pockets and a slightly decreased supply flow beyond rail heads would consequently also require less drastic "blizzard rules" since the Soviet would naturally be stronger.

[Flaviusx]

I vaguely recall an infantry corps getting wiped out early on near Moscow. Or maybe it was in 2. Army. But that's about it.

91k manpower/turn is bad. I wonder if we've gone too far in ratcheting down manpower. It's hard to get by with anything less than 100k in 1942, and even that is low. It seems to me that Kamil ought to be getting more bodies than that a turn, he's not that far off the historical line, save the usual loss of Leningrad and the far northern crackup. (FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PEOPLE STOP LETTING THIS HAPPEN AND DEFEND KARELIA.)

Makes me wonder how the hell some people out there are getting 8 million men armies in 1942. WTF?

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
91k manpower/turn is bad. I wonder if we've gone too far in ratcheting down manpower. It's hard to get by with anything less than 100k in 1942, and even that is low.

Glad some one is starting to question the 50 to 40 multiplier drop in SHC cutting 20% of manpower out. If any one still have to question to why every one playing SHC has to run for the hills, if meeting a semi competent or better GHC player. Well u might wana look at how well the SHC side recovers from losses currently and why 41 is an excersise in pure and simple force preservation. Do u have any choice?

It seems to me that Kamil ought to be getting more bodies than that a turn, he's not that far off the historical line, save the usual loss of Leningrad and the far northern crackup.

No not really, look at the 42 scn it has 2600ish manpower. Then deduct Leningrad, tho not that high in the 42 scn but also the furthest axis advance. That leaves in the area of 2300 *40= 92k.(almost made that guess before kamil posted the 91k but i didnt have the nerve) Tho Kamil has taken some things back they've only has had 15 turns to repair = 30% so if just around 75% damaged after the axis leaves. They've hardly started to produce yet.

(FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PEOPLE STOP LETTING THIS HAPPEN AND DEFEND KARELIA.)

Ok ok, next time if there is a next time.

Makes me wonder how the hell some people out there are getting 8 million men armies in 1942. WTF?

Simple. Meet a player playing axis side for the first time, Note it was my first attempt at soviet side, apart from 14 turns vs AI. Keep opening all pockets for the first 3-4 turns making opponent not dare to attack cuz of rout instead of surrenders. Then move u units in the "pockets" onto all RR making it so that teh GHC doesnt get to start repairing RR until turn 4. Well i could retreat at leasuire after that tho i did lose Leningrad. 1 HQBU in all of first 17 turns. Think i had taken 1.6m men losses in all by turn 17. Have GHC finally getting near my preprared lines come blizzard and not retreating. Unlease 6.5m men and lots of full str cav corps and tank bdes 50 moral/exp units. Make landing near Odessa as GHC units are off chasing partisans. Nearly cut of the entire AGS cuz of the lack of functioning RRs. Capturing 55 axis div, of which 45 were german. Actually i had captured a pz div on turn 5 too. Come think of it havent played a pbem yet where i havent captured a german pz div in the first 10 turns yet. Moving the post blizzard line back to Leningrad, landbridge, upper Dnieper, across lower Dnieper by a bit.
Come start off july 42 u have 9.1 mio men and funnily enough germans had 3.45m. Even with those 45 divs lost plus others whacked too. well wasnt a total breeze as i had made a total mess of the AP game. Using 600 AP on taking AA units out of cities until i finally got(im some what darfed) it costed 50 AP a piece plus making far to many SU. Not to mention some how turning off locked HQ having each and every SU jump to STAKVA. Costed alot to get them back. Oh well live and learn.

Show off/story time over,

Rasmus

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I vaguely recall an infantry corps getting wiped out early on near Moscow. Or maybe it was in 2. Army. But that's about it.

91k manpower/turn is bad. I wonder if we've gone too far in ratcheting down manpower. It's hard to get by with anything less than 100k in 1942, and even that is low. It seems to me that Kamil ought to be getting more bodies than that a turn, he's not that far off the historical line, save the usual loss of Leningrad and the far northern crackup. (FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PEOPLE STOP LETTING THIS HAPPEN AND DEFEND KARELIA.)

Makes me wonder how the hell some people out there are getting 8 million men armies in 1942. WTF?

Its not that hard to get 7 - 8 million by June 42. I have seen it allot, its very very easy now. Thats what MT is doing also.

Bobo in our game has 4,654,000 on turn 8.

What happens is:

1. SHC basicly flat out runs east for the first 8-10 turns, taking 1.0 - 1.2 million in loses.
2. GHC can't keep up because of slow railheads and HQ rule set.
3. SHC is recieving 115k replasements plus 10 - 15 divisions a turn.
4. SHC after railing out Leningrad leave a gimp forse then heavly defend Moscow.
5. In south SHC after railing out industry runs east.
6. With Snow turns being gimped and again SHC retreating a hex or 2 a turn loses are very low during snow turns.

So using them there tactics 8 million by June 42 and fort belts 4 to 6 hexes thick is really not that hard to get.

Kamils #'s are low because he defended Moscow and pushed hard during blizzard.

The down side to this retreat east and fight as little as possible is if you have a poor blizzard and the GHC kept 9 infantry divisions and 1/2 the panzers near 90 during winter the GHC can easly drive though any fort belt withen 2 turn max.

The German army is always going to be 3.6 to 3.8 million by June. Tank numbers mean very little as do men under arms.

The big question is whats the morale of the German infantry as a hole?

Manpower centers should be the #1 target of GHC, then keeping infantry morale as high as possibe.

vs a GHC player that can move quickly east and over run allot of manpower centers the replasement rate will be under 80k a turn. Which means GHC can easly grind down the SHc during 42 and possibly 43.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Pelton
vs a GHC player that can move quickly east and over run allot of manpower centers the replasement rate will be under 80k a turn. Which means GHC can easly grind down the SHc during 42 and possibly 43.

So ur saying, not that i disagree. Running doesnt work cuz of above?
Forward defence vs a good german doesnt work. See Tarhunnas examples.

Game set match german certain on win, if u know how to survive the blizzard. Keeping SHC out of Berlin until 46/ 47, if player is above a certain caliber?

Ops, i thot the general concensus was that the game its a certain SHC win..... not that it doesnt happen in many cases cuz of the lacking key component. Quoting my self player is above a certain caliber? Not that i entirely blame the players, the game lacks alot in feedback to the players making the learning curve unnecesarrily steep.

No doubt playing german side is harder and require more player skill, but IMO 9/10 of how 41 transpires comes down to GHC player skill, 1/10 SHC side. With Flaviusx being the abboration. '42 maybe more like 7/10s vs 3/10s.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Walloc

ORIGINAL: Pelton
vs a GHC player that can move quickly east and over run allot of manpower centers the replasement rate will be under 80k a turn. Which means GHC can easly grind down the SHc during 42 and possibly 43.

So ur saying, not that i disagree. Running doesnt work cuz of above?
Forward defence vs a good german doesnt work. See Tarhunnas examples.

Game set match german certain on win, if u know how to survive the blizzard. Keeping SHC out of Berlin until 46/ 47, if player is above a certain caliber?

Ops, i thot the general concensus was that the game its a certain SHC win..... not that it doesnt happen in many cases cuz of the lacking key component. Quoting my self player is above a certain caliber? Not that i entirely blame the players, the game lacks alot in feedback to the players making the learning curve unnecesarrily steep.

No doubt playing german side is harder and require more player skill, but IMO 9/10 of how 41 transpires comes down to GHC player skill, 1/10 SHC side. With Flaviusx being the abboration. '42 maybe more like 7/10s vs 3/10s.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

There is clearly a balance as Flaviusx has stated more then a few times and each game is different.
Kamil has done a good job, yes his army is a little small, but will be close to 6.5+ million by June 22 1942.
I am guessing the over all morale of the Red army is higher then average and the german army lower then average.

Running works in most cases as MT in his thread states he has zero issue with just walking away from Moscow. Hes never lost a game as SHC, same for Flaviusx. Almost every new guys I play is 4-0 or 6-0 or something playing as russian.

The key being all things being equal is how good will the SHC blizzard be and was the GHC able to keep the key infantry/panzer units off line.

The game is all things being equal desided in the summer of 42. The German army does not have to take Moscow in 41 and the SHC does not have to hold it, but yes sure it makes 42 easyer for one side.

There is an amazing amount of things to learn in this game. There are allot of different ways to win or lose and almost every game is different from the last 21.

There is no one set way to win.

There are a bunch of factors that sure can help or hurt your chances no matter the side going into 42.

As far as players helping players "feed back" I have for a long time tried helping other players by answering questions.

I have a few threads explaining things as I see them and how I do them.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

As far as players helping players "feed back" I have for a long time tried helping other players by answering questions.

I have a few threads explaining things as I see them and how I do them.

I know and i applude it.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[KamilS]

T42 south (Soviet)


I try to patch up my defenses here.

Northern front is transferred here to solve command problems.

[KamilS]

T43 center (German)


Saper's mud offensive continues.

[KamilS]

T43 south (German)


Situation in the south deteriorates.

[KamilS]

T43 south (Soviet)


Reorganization continues. Center and far south and stripped of troops to counter threat in middle Don sector.

[KamilS]

T44 center (German)


I slowly give ground here and to be honest I start to think it is mistake that I might pay for when summer come.