Third Reich 42 - 45: Mark (Axis) vs Mike (Allies)

[USXpat]

T048 - April 2, 1943
Black Sea Coast

5th and 6th Panzer, now assigned to XLVIII Panzer Korps, along with SS Panzer 102 Bn (Tigers) forced their way into Poti. Batumi is now only 75 km away as the crow flies, 90 by road.

5th Mountain Division with support from the 3rd Werfer Brigade also managed to advance through the passes - giving potential for a link up.

If control over the road net can be secured, this link up should improve supply passing through to Grozny. Presently, supply has to pass along 285 km via unimproved road leading to only 8 points of supply reaching Axis forces in Grozny presently. Getting control of that road should increase supply to about 14 points. IF and that is a big one, as I only have 5 available, a mobile supply unit can be positioned along this route, it could increase supply a bit further - maybe to 18 points.

If Batumi is captured - the Soviets will be forced to scuttle the Black Sea Fleet. If Batumi can be held and given some breathing space, then portions of the 11 divisions of mixed security-Italian infantry and Luftwaffe units can be freed up for second line defenses in "weak spots".

In this regard, on the Eastern Front alone, there are roughly 24 "light divisions" assigned to rear area security. My intentions are to keep them in that role as when all hell breaks lose and it likely will - these are the units that will buy some time... maybe. A few them will anyway, some I'm not so sure about...

Otherwise - France and the Lowlands: 43 mixed German Divisions are in garrison mode. Of these only 16 are regular "1st line" type Infantry Divisions. Most of the remainder are static, reserve, understrength or Luftwaffe Field Divisions. Total armor presence as of this turn includes 1 panzer division, 1 heavy tank battalion and 1 heavy anti-tank battalion.


Karelia: Not much sooner after Axis forces cascaded down from Murmansk to the Kem-Belomorsk area did the 5th Guards Tank Army show up. This show of strength convinced the only Panzer Division on the front, the 25th, more like a brigade at this point, and that with a majority of French tanks to switch over to the defensive. I can rely upon the German infantry in this kind of stubborn terrain to be an adequate defense.

[USXpat]

T051 - April 23, 1943
Tunisia

Capturing about 3 turns quick. Little action on T50 with a spring thaw.

Main development is at Tunis. The screenshot speaks for itself, a joint English, Canadian and American force pushes into Tunis, taking the last Axis supply point in Africa.

Leading up to this, the Italian navy backed by JU-87's and SM79 III's took a serious toll on the Allied navies. Exact losses are unknown, but two full aircraft carrier groups were sunk. If this were the Pacific Theater, that would be a significant event. The impact here is minimal.

Still controlling the port and having broken through the naval blockade, there is hope for at least some of the remaining Afrika Corps to continue the fight on the mainland.

Elsewhere:
- Sicily: Renewing defensive build-up.
- Italy: Beginning construction of new fortified line.
- Balkans: Quiet.
- Black Sea: Axis forces push to within 75 km to Sokhumi.
- Grozny Area: Axis forces reach the outskirts of Makchalaka on the Caspian Sea.
- Astrakahn Bulge: Quiet.
- Don River: Quiet.
- Voronezh - Yelets: Soviet offensive appears to be simmering down, between mud conditions and fresh reinforcements. Heavy casualties on both sides.
- Rhzev-Vyama: Quiet
- Velikye Luki: Quiet
- Finland & Karelia: Quiet

The new Soviet Artillery Divisions are getting their practice in on firing on front line units - frequently taking them out of (F)ortified Status and making them Mobile. This makes these segments of the defensive line exponentially more vulnerable. Sometimes it can take a few months for a unit to get back to fort status. Eventually the Soviets will have almost 3 dozen of these artillery divisions, I can't think of anything more frightening.

[USXpat]

T055 - May 21st
Black Sea Coast & General Overview

Very busy (working on next version) and work, generally. We're up into the mid- 90's - 1944 in game, so will try to fast forward a bit.

Aside from periodic fighting in the Yeletz - Voronezh areas; off/on fighting in Karelia; the only Axis offensive activity is on the Black Sea Coast - objective Batumi. Screenshot shows Axis forces close to linking up with the 5th Gebirgs Division on the first major mountain pass. The situation now is not so static having finally broken into some open ground vs. fighting on a 45 km front for the past year.

Elsewhere:

Remnants of the Afrika Korps surrendered to Allied Forces on April 30th (2-3 weeks shy of historical) - including the von Arnim mobile supply point (+5 Allied VP). 15th and 21st Panzer Divisions were extracted earlier, but the Bayerlein HQ was snuffed out in eastern Libya, so both of these divisions are operating at 50% of their usual proficiency. That is the one Korps HQ which does not reconstitute...

Now... it is a matter of waiting for the inevitable invasion of Southern Europe.

[USXpat]

T060 - June 25, 1943
Black Sea Coast - Batumi

Following a few turns of Spring Thaw severely hampering movement, the global situation is pretty quiet. The drive on Batumi is the only significant offensive underway - and has reached the outskirts of the last port available to the Black Sea Fleet.

The lull in activity is not likely to last long. Mike's been hammering my airfields and bridges at every turn. Allied to Axis Air Superiority is 178 to 135. This turn, fewer of my units are in re-org; sitting around 110-120 usually.

Six full artillery divisions have been spotted just west of Rhzev, with another six staring at my line near Mozaisk. That's a lot of firepower and there are not too many reasons why they would be concentrated like two pinchers against the bulge just 165km west of Moscow.

Things are about to break loose...

[USXpat]

T062 - July 9, 1943
Sicily

The Allies have invaded Sicily! A few things of note. As this is a playtest, I'm interested to make sure everything works, but also how it plays. Sicily/Italy encountered some difficulties in Justus's game requiring some remedial in-game fixes - giving ground to the Allies to provide them access to Supply Points as some had gone on vacation to the Greek islands. Real-time, we've run into another example of this in later parts of the Italian Campaign.

Amphibious invasions that result in units not making it ashore are usually hammered, I think legitimately in most cases, but discretion should be applied, too. So, I didn't work over the Syracuse landing.

Allies reaching within a certain radius of a fixed point will trigger the Italian capitulation routine - leading to a withdrawal of all Italian units on a variable timer. I'm not liking how that works, as it is easy for the Axis player to "game the system" if they have any idea of what to expect. Hell... I did even whilst saying... "this isn't right".

Overall though, it comes down to how much the Axis Player is willing to invest to keep the Italians in the game vs. "they're doomed anyway, we'll use the Italians to delay the Allies while the Germans set up the Volturno Line."

So, efforts in the next version are geared to making the Italian Campaign more interesting, less predictable, and more painful for the Axis, and/or more rewarding for the Allies. In the first version, I tried to keep the event sequences very simple and not use very many. So, not much of an AAR here, just an explanation of portions of current vs. intended events.

[USXpat]

T063 - July 16, 1943
Rhzev

Earlier plans to consolidate the line from Rhzev to Velikye Luki were abandoned a few months back in favor of expanding operations in Karelia. Instead, Mike is taking the initiative to try to chop of the Axis Bulge aimed at Moscow - making pretty good progress in the opening assaults.

Orders for the units in the Bulge are to hold fast in the hopes of 3rd Panzer Armee being able to contain the situation. This amounts to 2nd, 22nd and 23rd Panzer Divisions, 16th PanzerGrenadiers, and 505th Hvy Panzer Panzer Battalion. Additional reinforcements will likely be needed, but then - they will also be needed in Italy, too.

[USXpat]

T065 - July 31, 1943
Rhzev

Two turns later, the Rhzev bubble is about to pop. The Rhzev perimeter is held by the main body of VI, XX and XXVII Armee Korps. Third Panzer Armee's efforts served little purpose other than to keep a 15-30 km corridor open to the town. Even this is extremely tenuous and reliant upon active counterattacks to re-establish the supply route. Moreover, it is apparent that the 2nd and 4th Guards Tank Armies, along with the 8th Guards Army have joined into the fighting - a simply overwhelming situation.

Reinforcements continue to flow into the area, grudgingly, the defense of Rhzev will be abandoned in a fighting withdrawal starting in August.

Elsewhere --

Sicily: Unable to trust the Italians to remain in the war following the capture of Palermo, the defense of Sicily is largely left to the Italians. German forces instead will focus on the construction of an "unbreakable" defensive line in southern Italy, beginning at Salerno.

The Balkans: Partisan forces are largely contained to a large pocket between Sarajevo and Banja Luka. With the imminent collapse of Sicily and Italy, I'm increasingly concerned about an Allied invasion along the Balkan coastline. Italians have been withdrawn to defend Italy, and German replacement/reserve/security divisions have moved in to take their place. Meanwhile, I'm looking to assemble an assault group strong enough to break the backbone of the People's Liberation Army under Tito residing in these mountains. This will better enable the Croatian forces to concentrate on coastal defenses and containment efforts should the Western Allies opt launch in this area. If there are no allied partisans to greet them, such an invasion may never even happen.

(Note -- The Balkans are being made radically tougher in the next PBEM version, all (I)rregulars will instead be actual (G)uerrillas - and so should normally reconstitute barring enemy occupation of the hex. What is working as intended - the fewer partisan units there are - the stronger they get. Where they start out with 2-2/2-3, some regular divisions are showing as 11-28's making offensives by regular Croatians with 4-9's suicidal. These being "relative combat values".)

Other Areas have periodic fighting, but are dropping off the scale of relevance compared to Sicily and Rhzev. Voronezh continues with its periodic fighting, back and forth over the same 6 - 10 hexes. The Black Sea, Grozny and Makchalaka are all stabilized fronts - though still 30km shy of Batumi. Same for the Stalingrad, Volga and Upper Don (up to Voronezh) - all relatively quiet areas.

Karelia... my goal here is still intact, namely an effort to shorten the line, even if it comes in spurts of a couple hexes. Presently, there's really not enough of a concentration of force here to engage in a prolonged offensive with a full cycling units into and out of combat. Win or lose - any Soviet forces that I can divert away from "the center" is a "desired outcome".

[USXpat]

T067 - August 13, 1943
Rhzev

Third Panzer Armee with 4 Panzer and 1 PzG Division have managed to keep a corridor open for VI and XX Korps to withdraw from their original positions around Rhzev. The Red Air Force continues to blow bridges almost as fast as I can repair them. Repair one and another one gets blown. Interdiction is a constant and continuous pain -- anywhere from 8 to 10 hits (per combat round). Occasionally they knock fortified units out of their status.

Casualties at Rhzev are heavy - and I've disbanded a few more replacement divisions so that destroyed divisions will be reformed closer to full strength. Engineers and artillery for regular infantry divisions, however, are in a state of persistent, critical shortage.

Elsewhere: Most areas are relatively quiet. The Italians can surrender "anytime", but I've basically written them off. Most reinforcements are being allocated to Italy to build my "impenetrable defensive line". I still have my eyes on Karelia and the Caucasus, more for tactical considerations than anything strategic.

[USXpat]

T069 - August 27, 1943
Karelia

The main body of 20th Gebirgs Armee with XXVI and XXXVI Korps manage to overrun defenses of the 70th Army. A small gain, but every journey begins with a single step.

Rhzev:

Everything that can make it out Rhzev has done so. The 256th Infantry Division was unable to run the gauntlet and remains irretrievably trapped by the 5th Guards Tank Army. A new defensive line has been formed 30 km north of Vyazma.

Reinforcements -- Tenth Army is in the process of being formed and will arrive next week along with several divisions. Tenth Army will likely be sent to Italy.

Allied Air Forces have virtually achieved "global" Supremacy 169 to 93. The bulk of the Luftwaffe has been recalled to Air Defense over Germany pending a total rethink of how I intend to conduct the air war. The basic situation as it stands is that I have plenty of aircraft, but not enough pilots to fly them -- and the proficiency of most of the ones I do have is a far cry from the 75% proficiency most of my units started at.

I do have some air units in the 90%+ range (mostly bombers - which I've used fairly sparingly) but a few high quality fighter units, too. The best of these fighter units will be flying CAP solely for units that absolutely-positively MUST make it to "the front". That's not an issue applying so much "now" as one that I anticipate developing later. The Allied Air Forces are still ramping up - and entrained units are consistently taking a beating. Add a bit of CAP though and their chances of getting hit are reduced in frequency and severity.

[USXpat]

T072 - Sep 17, 1943
Grozny

With the Soviet Forces becoming more active, I'm looking again to shorten my lines to create more reserves. Grozny's just the place. Up to this point, there's been a 105 km front to the southwest which could potentially be reduced to 15 km -- if the Soviets can be forced back into the mountains. It's a relatively small operation that barely justifies mentioning.

[USXpat]

T072 - Sep 17, 1943
Batumi

The Black Sea area has been quiet for a while. Part of that is owing to the refitting of the Panzer Divisions. 4th Panzer Division, the seventh division to complete the refit process is in the process of disembarking from its trains near Sokhumi. It will take a few turns to build up some supply and get some additional equipment from the replacement pool.

Batumi is a must take objective, mainly because I am paranoid about rear area security... defending the beaches along the Black Sea are 2 German & 3 Romanian Security Divisions, 3 Luftwaffe Field Divisions, 2 Replacement Divisions, 2 MP/Security Brigades, plus 3 coastal forts. Not front line troops, but a decent reserve if TSHTF.

[USXpat]

T072 - Sep 17, 1943
Karelia

The renewed Karelian Offensive amounted to a small surge. While I'll be attempting to continue more reinforcements will be needed to achieve the desired stop line. Come November, that may be a possibility - until then, reinforcements amount to a few heavy tank battalions, security brigades, night attack bombers and some fighters.


Elsewhere -

Italy, thankfully, is taking its time in surrendering, allowing for a few months worth of reinforcements including 10th Armee with 3 Infantrie and 1 (my only) artillery division. Most of my remaining rail artillery has run the gauntlet of Soviet air interdiction to reach Italy - some worse for the wear. The Dora unit made the attempt, too - making it a total of 15 km from the Voronezh-Yeletz line before getting slammed by Sturmoviks.

Italian partisans have generated some havoc with the rail lines, but I do have some security forces contending with them.

France...there's not much happening over there. Nothing in fact. Nevertheless, I feel it prudent to build up some kind of "strategic reserve" - located in France, but not just for France. At this point, the sum total of that reserve is LSSAH, Grossdeutchland and 1st Panzer Division - 3 very capable divisions whereas all of my other reserves amount to 2nd and 3rd rate security and LFD units.

[USXpat]

T075 - Oct 8, 1943
Italy

With Italian Forces finally laying down their arms, the first Axis ally is completely out of the picture. Now the real defense begins. Almost all available reinforcements have been poured into Italy aiming to construct an impenetrable fortified line stretching NE from Salerno.

Total forces include 8th and 10th Armees amounting to:
* 11 varied Infantrie Divisions (incl. Mountain/FJ/Ski)
* 2 "New" Panzer Divisions: Herman Goehring and Das Reich
* 2 "Old" Panzer Divisions: 15th and 21st
* 155 Reserve Panzer Division
* 999th Leichte Division
* 4 Heavy Tank Battalions
* 1 Assault Gun Brigade (with Brumbars)
* 1 Heavy AT Battalion
* 18th Artillery Division
* 2 Rail Artillery Battalions
* HQ's for SS IV, V and IX Korps

Through its fighting to date, 999th - originally a penal unit, now has a proficiency of 84% - quite probably the best trained/most experienced unit in the Wermarcht. It's not a very strong unit, so I'm trying to get the most out of it by defending in the mountains overlooking a minor escarpment on one side and a river on the other. The hex directly south of it is alpine, so it's not likely to be easily flanked.

Otherwise... The small Grozny Operation has reduced its front line from 105 km to 75. Elsewhere, it is disturbingly quiet and it never stays that way for long...

[USXpat]

In real time we completed playing through Turn 116. Mike and I evaluated whether to continue understanding that really, Axis replacements were a bit too high on some line items and Allied (especially Russian) replacements were substantially too low on some line items. Mainly this concerned infantry squads.

Mike Goldsberry's research also uncovered some additional Western (US/UK/Commonwealth) assets - as he mapped out both the USAAF and RAF down to the squadron. In turn, we mapped those out to units trying to capture as much of the "total force" as possible without dramatically increasing the number of units required. This required dropping some early versions of aircraft and averaging aircraft type by unit. It also meant "averaging" entry dates - in that one wing might have arrived in 1942, another in 1943 and a third in 1944 - so, that unit ends up arriving in 1943.

The map bookmarks were removed, the functionally useless UK home guard HQ's removed. Soviet AT brigades almost entirely removed, their assets bolstering the Composite Rocket Brigades and Tank Brigades, making both less susceptible to automatic over-runs (though that is still possible).

Mike played a good game, especially in the West. He was largely on schedule there - in North Africa, Sicily (if a slow capitulation), Italy and Normandy. The Italian campaign is rough for both sides - and ran into one glitch with a shortage of supply points for the Allies. The Eastern Front unfortunately was handicapped from the get-go by as much as 1k squads per turn.

So - lots of issues, but "even then, despite all that" - the Axis were by no means invulnerable, and even with extra replacements were struggling at times in 1943 and 1944. The tipping point for settling this game was consideration of Allies Progress coupled with the expected reinforcement schedule, with the Summer of 1944 giving rise to a lot of VG divisions, and then the Tiger II's. The Axis would steadily be pushed back - but likely not at the rate needed to push it past an Axis minor victory.

But this is what playtesting is for and helps isolate a lot of different issues in the game play. Now, onto the next version.