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Orzel Bialy
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Post by Orzel Bialy »

Here's what the AP has reported as far as the damage and what was known about it and what could have been done about it....unfortunately the answer was: nothing. :(

"Dittemore said that even if the astronauts had gone out on an emergency spacewalk, there was no way a spacewalker could have safely checked under the wings, which bear the brunt of re-entry heat.

The shuttle was not equipped with its 50-foot robot arm because it was not needed during this research mission, and so the astronauts did not have the option of using the arm's cameras to get a look at the damage.

And even if they did find damage, ``there's nothing that we can do about tile damage once we get to orbit,'' Dittemore said. ``We can't minimize the heating to the point that it would somehow not require a tile.'' "

As reported by Marcia Dunn
Copyright 2003 The Associated Press
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Goblin
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Post by Goblin »

Yes, several points... SAFELY?!? We could not safely have an astronaut spacewalk... OMG. Yeah, much better this way.

Let them spacewalk, see the damage, and then go from there. Rope the walker with bed sheets or something.

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Belisarius
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Post by Belisarius »

It's easy to be wise with the facts at hand....

But I suppose they could've thrown a guy outside and make him look; even if rushed to the extreme, would it have been possible to launch a rescue shuttle? (It normally takes a YEAR or so to prepare one for mission) Possibly with repair tiles as well?

I bet the Russians would have found out a way, using a sledgehammer and some duct tape strapped to a rocket booster. ;) I mean, they could fix and run the MIR beyond all safety limits...

Now, that said we don't know yet if it was in fact damaged tiles that caused this tragedy. :rolleyes:
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Post by Goblin »

I'm no expert, but I will wager someone could have tried something had they found the damage. Maybe they might have been able to link up with the space station. Even if not, they would have at least been able to say goodbye to their families before making the attempt.

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Voriax
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Post by Voriax »

About those tiles...I think there must've been rather considerable damage. If my memory serves me right, during the very first shuttle flight there was quite a lot of concern about whether the tiles will stay put or drop away...and I just checked and during STS-1 they lost _16_ tiles and 148 were damaged.

So obviously a loss of few tiles wasn't a problem back then and shouldn't been now. Of course some locations are more critical than others.

As for repairing those tiles. They are such high-precision jobs I seriously doubt there is any way to scrape off a damaged tile in space and replace it with new one, and do it well. however, I recall seeing (from some shuttle related science program) astronauts training to use stuff called Nomex??. It was red stuff sprayed from small containers and it was supposed to be used for patching holes left by missing/damaged tiles. I wonder what happened to that training/chemical. Was it ignored when they saw that couple tiles won't matter?

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Post by tracer »

If launch damage was to blame, count on the space program to learn from this and move forward...don't be surprised to see cans of NASA's version of Fix-a-Flat on future flights (at $1400 a pop) :)

For all its resilience and strength, the shuttle is still a fragile vehicle. The workers out at the Cape refer to it as a 'butterfly on a bullet'.
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Bernie
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Post by Bernie »

Originally posted by tracer
If launch damage was to blame, count on the space program to learn from this and move forward...don't be surprised to see cans of NASA's version of Fix-a-Flat on future flights (at $1400 a pop) :)

For all its resilience and strength, the shuttle is still a fragile vehicle. The workers out at the Cape refer to it as a 'butterfly on a bullet'.


I find it dumbfounding to believe that NASA has never had a contingency plan for repairing a damaged shuttle in orbit. We knew from the start that the only thing keeping a shuttle safe during re-entry was the tiles. We worried from the start what would happen if some were lost or damaged. They're telling us now that in the two decades the shuttles have been flying we still haven't come up with something better than "leave it up there" and send another shuttle to rescue the crew? And they got this by congress?? Yeah, I can hear that congressional budget meeting... "You mean to tell me, Mr. Director, that if a damaged shuttle, from a meteorite, launch damage, junk debris, whatever, is up in orbit, we can't fix it, or get it back? And these shuttles cost HOW much each?" "Well Senator, we just don't have the capacity to fix something like that in space." "Mr. Director, you will develop and demonstrate a system to do just that, or you will not get another nickle of funding on this project! Meeting adjourned!"

Sheesh! How about a couple of blocks of ceramic based epoxy for a start? Sure, it may not be perfect, but it has to be better than nothing. We're talking about what, 2,000 degrees? I can think of a couple off-the-shelf products that can handle those temps. And for another matter, NASA has long been concerned that if one tile came off the air hitting the exposed edge of the next tile in line might peel it off, and the next, and the next. Well, why not bevel the leading and trailing edges and overlap them? Like a snake's scales?
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rlc27
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Post by rlc27 »

I think it's time we dispense with the whole space shuttle concept as is, and design a new spacecraft using all of the technology and materials designed during the past 20+ years. The basic shuttle design dates to 1977! To still be using that in 2003 is like pasting a tie fighter from Star Wars A New Hope into Attack of the Clones. While the shuttles have been refurbished and upgraded with new electronics, there must be better materials available that will make the craft more durable and able to deal with contingencies. Let alone new propulsion systems that will allow the shuttle to be more versatile in its functions--orbiting, and reorbiting, from the upper atmostphere,and perhaps with the ability to leave orbit altogether. Carl Sagan suggested that we had the tech to build this kind of ship years ago, so why haven't we done it? Even the SR-71 could skim the edge of the atmosphere, and that was in the 60's. And it takes less energy to take off and ascend at an angle than it does to blast off straight into space, but we're just sooo attached to rockets and boosters, even though they are far more dangerous than "old fashion" ramjets and high-lift airfoils.

If the "broken foam insulation" theory turns out to be true, then both lost shuttles will have been the victim of minor malfunctions during liftoff, both of which led to major disasters--the POS Morton Thiokol O-ring on Challenger, and a falling piece of Pink Panther on Columbia.

It is interesting to note that the temperature rise was inside the landing gear bay at first. Since it appears that losing a few tiles doesn't do too much, how about if a bay door was left partly open or didn't seal correctly? Impossible to tell, I know, but it seems just as likely as the missing tile theory--I recall that they had to replace some of them after every single flight.
"They couldn't hit an elephant from this dist--"

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Post by rlc27 »

oh and PS, Goblin, I like your new avatar, but miss the old one.

Did you ever see a book by, I think it was Brian Froud, that was made as a complement to the movie "Labyrinth?" It is all about Goblins.
"They couldn't hit an elephant from this dist--"

--John Sedgwick, failing to reduce suppression during the Battle of the Wilderness, U.S. Civil War.
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Post by Goblin »

No, haven't seen it. Fear not! I will change my avatar yet again! Right now though, the Hiss Squad and I are kicking Jess butt.:rolleyes:

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rlc27
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Post by rlc27 »

Gob, that is one B/A looking cat...looks like a vampire-cat.

:eek:
"They couldn't hit an elephant from this dist--"

--John Sedgwick, failing to reduce suppression during the Battle of the Wilderness, U.S. Civil War.
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Post by Goblin »

Bernie found it, lol. If you have not seen the PURRsecution thread, you really should, its hilarious! :D

Goblin



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Post by Figmo »

About going to get people - I think they still have 5 people in the Space Station that will run out of air in 6 months.

Hmm - what to do?

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Post by Bernie »

Originally posted by Figmo
About going to get people - I think they still have 5 people in the Space Station that will run out of air in 6 months.

Hmm - what to do?

Figmo


As I recall from a few NASA briefings:

The space station has it's own "escape pod" (a standard pre-shuttle capsule) that would enable the station crew to "abandon ship" and return safely.

With the current air scrubbing ability in the station, breathable air is not the problem. Food would start to run out around June though.
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Post by Voriax »

Well, the space station is largely supplied via Russian 'Progress' automated cargo transports. Latest was supposed to be launched either Sunday or Monday.
And their 'escape pod' is actually Russian 'Soyuz' craft that they are normally using in ferrying crew members to the station.

3 man ship, afaik. So I guess they need to send one up either automated or manned with just one man to get whole crew away.

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tracer
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Post by tracer »

Actually, there is a Russian space shuttle (copy of US shuttle) attached to the space station that is functional and can serve as a lander. It went up carrying one of the first loads of material for the station and was used as a living area. And regarding supplies, unless they cancelled it (and I don't know why they would) a supply rocket was scheduled for launch from Russia the day after the accident.
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Post by Voriax »

Ummm...Tracer..the Soviet space shuttle 'Buran' did only one flight, and that was something like 15 years ago. Dunno where that ship is rusting now, probably in Baykonur launch centre.

As for it being a copy..well, I'd guess some copying was done but Buran didn't have main engines, the liftoff power came from the huge 'Energia' rocket. As you just can't take plans of a US shuttle, leave out the engines and build it I'd say they did most of the design by themselves.

And yep, the supply ship should dock today. However I read from a newspaper that they will eventually have to evaquate the station. Reason being that Russians have only 2 Soyuz and 3 Progress ships ready. And they'd need 8 Progress launches this year alone to replace missing shuttle flights. The source of this article was a Russian newspaper, though the name escapes me at the moment.

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tracer
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Post by tracer »

Originally posted by Voriax
Ummm...Tracer..the Soviet space shuttle 'Buran' did only one flight, and that was something like 15 years ago. Dunno where that ship is rusting now, probably in Baykonur launch centre.



Hmmm, that's what I get for believing what I hear on TV. :D
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Orzel Bialy
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As much as...

Post by Orzel Bialy »

we would like to say that there were other alternatives...the truth is, with what was known and what could be actually be done...there wasn't much anyone could really do.

The flight was not equipped for space walks...as much as people sit here and think "well, they should have done one regardless" its a far harder task than just jumping into a suit and going out the door.

AFAIK almost all of the flights where space walks were done the robotic arm was utilized to hold onto the astronaut...and that same arm was not part of the shuttle bay equipment this time around.

The only "non-arm" space walks that I know of ( one I know of for sure, maybe two or three??? ) were test runs of new "walk-packs" and they were not on the shuttle either. Not to mention, none of the crew were trained for space walks.

Then there was the fact that there is no tile repair kit as part of the shuttle inventory. They had one for a while, but stopped taking it up because of the fact that they came to the conclusion that tile repair in space was not feasible in most circumstances...since there are 24k tiles to choose from and being able to modify them in space would mean extra tools and training.

And as for going to the space station...the different altitudes and orbits seem to have ruled that out. The Shuttles have only so much fuel for their thrusters...and its orbit is usually designated by what course it takes after lift-off, since it utilizes the thrust from that to obtain its position. Once in orbit, the shuttle is pretty much limited to using its thrusters to maintain altitude and trim within in narrow window of space.

So, let's say you have a go at all these options anyway...ok they space walk, they find the damage...they even somehow manage to change their orbit and direction...and make it to the space station. Now what?
Seven extra people are now in a craft that isn't ready to have 10 people in it yet.

Voriax is correct about the Russian Buran, it is sitting in some yard in Russia wasting away...having never flown after its maiden voyage. The escape pod on the station is a three man capsule...and what do you do if you use that and the station has an emergency? It would be a couple months at best before another flight from either Russia or NASA could get another one up there...plus more supplies.

Then there are the other Station Issues....like, could the scrubbers currently on board be able to support the extra CO2?...and just what was the supply situation?...and what would be sent up on the next rocket or shuttle...another pod, food or other things, like repair supplies? After all, a rescue mission would not be ready over night...even at a rushed pace, that would only endanger that ship and crew as well.

As for the supply rocket that went up...it was already packed and ready to go....and it's cargo couldn't be modified on the pad. It isn't like packing up the SUV...you can't just go to the driveway, open up the door and throw in some more sh*t folks. It's a complex matter to get something ready to go into space.

In reality....the only thing that could have possibly saved them was if NASA or the Russians had an "emergency rocket" on the pad each time a shuttle launch was performed...and sadly neither agency has the money for that.

It's all a matter of would of, could of, should of at this point. It's not an excuse to say "oh well, sh*t happens...they did what they could" nor is it to say that NASA shouldn't be held accountable for some of it's decisions or policies....it's somehting that the agency will need to learn from. It found out that what worked on 50 other missions, didn't on this one and rule/guidebook must now be re-vamped. New policies and what if strategies will have to be created...and the way they evaluate shuttle damage at the time of lift off will have to be re-thought.

However, we all need to remember that despite all we know...and all we try to figure out ahead of time...there are still going to be those times when only our failures present us with new knowledge and insight. I know that seems kind of cold...but its a truth none the less. Nothing new in the history of mankind was ever bought without the blood of some of those brave few who ventured out at the vanguard.

Everyone one of us would love to see every astronaut go up and come back unharmed...but the truth of the matter is, that won't always be the case. To expect a "zero loss" rate is unrealistic...and if that is the case, then we should just forgo space exploration...because manned space flight is always going to entail risks. There will be future tragedies despite all we do. If we are continue to venture into space...then we must be prepared for the fact that among our victories, their will be losses.
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rlc27
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Post by rlc27 »

Well, at least Russia's space program is so active still, even though the rest of the country seems to be going to pieces.
"They couldn't hit an elephant from this dist--"

--John Sedgwick, failing to reduce suppression during the Battle of the Wilderness, U.S. Civil War.
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