GC41 - Saper222 (Ger) vs Kamil (Sov) (No Saper222)

[M60A3TTS]

Wow, this game gets more fascinating with each turn. With the rail gone and you unable to reinforce, he could really make it to Baku. Although, maybe you can ship a unit by naval transport through the Caspian from Guriev? May not practical, dunno.

[Flaviusx]

He can ship units in and build stuff locally, but odds are Baku is gone. Kamil got defeated on the open steppe and is about to have his real stop line bounced with nothing defending it. It's fairly disastrous.

The textbook Soviet response to an Axis oil push is to do what they did in real life: run like hell to the hills and the Terek river. This is almost the only place that matters once Rostov falls. Everything north of that is irrelevant. You can delay a bit around Krasnodar, I suppose, but nothing more.

[KamilS]

T65 far south-east (Soviet)


Somehow I managed to open corridor to the biggest pocket, but I fear it is only postponement of disaster.

[KamilS]

T66 far south-east (German)



5 divisions destroyed (37k soldiers), resealed biggest pocket plus lots of ground lost. Caucassus is for the taking.

[KamilS]

T66 far south-east (Soviet)



I failed, failed badly undone by my stupidity and Italians.

[smokindave34]

Kamil - thanks for posting this AAR! This has been an exciting match right from the start with momentum swinging back and forth to both sides.

I'd be careful about committing to heavily to your relief efforts north of Grozny. It may be time to cut your losses and form a new defensive line. Saper will never be able to hold this line for long and the mobility of his panzers may just engulf another 10 or 15 of your best divisions (guards, cavalry, mech corps) before he is done.

[KamilS]

smokindave34

Kamil - thanks for posting this AAR! This has been an exciting match right from the start with momentum swinging back and forth to both sides.

I'd be careful about committing to heavily to your relief efforts north of Grozny. It may be time to cut your losses and form a new defensive line. Saper will never be able to hold this line for long and the mobility of his panzers may just engulf another 10 or 15 of your best divisions (guards, cavalry, mech corps) before he is done.

Good advice, but it is already too late ...

[Michael T]

Kamil, would you mind posting some OOB and Production figures?

[KamilS]

This is data from next turn (T67), after destruction of encircled units.


Units: (corps/divisions/brigade)

Infantry 17/253/2
Mountain -/4/-
Cavalry 20/2/-
Tank 9/-/53
Mechanised 2/-/3 (motorised)

[Michael T]

I think you can still ultimately prevail if you play your cards right.

[M60A3TTS]

Well the good news is mud is coming soon, and the end of the summer campaign. You also will get your AP boost from the Southwestern Front in a couple weeks and the 42C Rifle Corps TO&E comes into play.

Bad news, with 303 rifle division equivalents there are going to have to be a lot of AP spent rebuilding the force. That and the tank corps rebuilds will probably take you through most of the winter.

He's likely going to be in a position if he chooses to resume attacking you as soon as the mud turns to snow. Hopefully you'll come up with a plan to hold him off and get him on the defensive. Then it's the long push west and a lot of real estate to take back.

[Walloc]

Kamil,

What do u take in pure attritional losses per turn? 25k-30k-40k?

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[Peltonx]

I think M60 has it right. The AP hit is huge and he can "IF" he plays it smart pick off small pockets of units from November through mud 1943 NP.

Then he needs to simply shorten lines set up in reserve mode and he should n't have any problem holding the lines static until rivers freeze in December 43.

He then while holding during 1943 can have several lines of forts built for the coming summer of 1944.

Kamil your manpower numbers are very low. His raid into the south was a very smart move on his part.

GHC can simply pocket 5 or 6 SHC units per turn and your manpower is static while GHC replasements in 1943 are peaking so GHC manpower numbers can easly hit 4 million and SHC will be lucky to hit 6 million.

I think GHC holds all the cards, he can only lose if he does something really stupid at this point. But we have seen some other GHC players do some really stupid things heheh.

Kamil you have the skills, but he has to give you an openning. He seems to know his stuff also and I don't expect him to do anything stupid.

[Flaviusx]

Yeah, the Axis can run out the clock here with ease. I'd guess it's going to be an Axis marginal victory.

[Michael T]

You guys give up too easy

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

You guys give up too easy

Nothing to do with that and more past game experiance.

I think we are both saying its 75%+ more then likely all things being equal GHC has the upper hand in this game based on past games or personal exp.

GHC can still blow it for sure.

[veji1]

I don't think Kamil is done here. Sure he made mistake (which gave us this great AAR btw) but he can still get the ball rolling in the right direction. Cut you losses in the south, fall back on the Stalingrad Don line and start using winter to hammer at german forces where they are thin. And with Saper going for bold offensives, a mistake might well be made. I am looking forward to the upcoming turns anyway.

[Flaviusx]

Michael, the Red Army is in terrible shape here, has been for some time. Kamil has never been able to reach 6 million, itself a modest figure.

The replacement situation is bad and getting worse, and can't even keep up with his loss rate. There is no there there.

I just don't see the basis for a win here. Berlin may as well be on the moon. Kamil would indeed be lucky to get a stalemate out of this. Only a major German brain fart will turn this around. I haven't seen much evidence of such brain farts as of yet.

[KamilS]

Walloc

What do u take in pure attritional losses per turn? 25k-30k-40k?

What do u take in pure attritional losses per turn? 25k-30k-40k?



around 30k

[KamilS]

T67 center (German)



Saper stripped Moscow area of best units, so his attack are rare and in area of secondary importance. Nevertheless I will have to withdrawn from small bulge that was formed NW from Moscow,