Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

[&o]

Who is the new avatar, GJ?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´m glad you decided to do an AAR! I will be around and offer what advice I can give. [:)]

Now that you are playing a human make sure you always plan for the most unexpected and catastrophic. Its usually what happens! [:D]

Good luck!

I lost USS Boise in the first hours of the war. So, yeah! [:'(]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm very excited to see this game going. A hearty good luck to you and I hope the PBEM gives you as much fun and satisfaction as it has me in my three games so far.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out without HRs. What are your thoughts on lower altitude 4E naval bombing? There is some precedence for it on a smaller scale in the war, and if you have well trained pilots dropping several hundred bombs from 2k over the KB, I wonder if that could be quite effective? I may find out in my game as my opponent (Torsten) asked to leave out any HRs against this. Any plans for low naval bombing with 4Es?

I've never had a lot of luck with 4E naval bombing in AI games, no matter the altitude. I also think, with no HRs and strat bombing available anywhere, they have better jobs to do. I've always thought this HR was mostly an ancient memory from WITP. I think the maneuver ratings on ships in AE make it hard enough to hit with a DB. And attacking a major combatant TF at 10k or less is flak city. I just quesiton the cost-benefit. And as the Allies, by the time I could attack the KB with 250 4Es I don't need to.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

Very brave, good luck

"Cigarette? Blindfold? No? Right this way then."

[Bullwinkle58]

12/7/1941

Overview: An interesting beginning to the war in some ways. Again, a surprise ON, non-historical start. Overall I thought the air war was more intense than in an AI game, the LCU landing roster was a snoozer (which worries me), and the PH effort was medium bad. (I have since looked into the next turn file and PH was really very light, unless he attacks twice.)

Big losses: USS Maryland, USS Boise.
Big gains: CL Sendai to Dutch sub and three fish at Kota Bharu; sunk ship sound effect heard.

PH Attack

Midget Sub attack inside harbor of Pearl Harbor!!!

Japanese Ships
SSX Ha-22

Allied Ships
BB West Virginia, Torpedo hits 1
---------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 108 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 46 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 68
B5N2 Kate x 144
D3A1 Val x 109

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 9 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed by flak
B5N2 Kate: 2 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 2 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 3 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 174 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 9 destroyed on ground
B-18A Bolo: 34 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 5 destroyed on ground
B-17D Fortress: 54 damaged
B-17D Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
P-40B Warhawk: 50 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 7 destroyed on ground
B-17E Fortress: 16 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
A-20A Havoc: 33 damaged
A-20A Havoc: 3 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 8 damaged
O-47A: 3 destroyed on ground
SBD-1 Dauntless: 44 damaged
SBD-1 Dauntless: 4 destroyed on ground
C-33: 2 damaged
C-33: 1 destroyed on ground
F4F-3 Wildcat: 3 damaged
F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed on ground
P-36A Mohawk: 39 damaged
P-36A Mohawk: 2 destroyed on ground
R3D-2: 3 damaged
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CM Oglala
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires
AV Wright, Bomb hits 1, on fire
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB California, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DM Ramsay
DM Preble
DM Montgomery
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
PT-24, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAKL Hirondelle
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 2, on fire
BB Nevada, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BB Arizona, Torpedo hits 3
CA New Orleans, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1
DD Ralph Talbot, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Worden, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
CL Detroit, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DMS Perry, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AVP Swan, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AV Curtiss, Torpedo hits 1

Allied ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 62
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 86
Port hits 13
Port fuel hits 2
-------------------------------

Comments:

1) Medals for the men of PT-24 who ate a torpedo and probably saved a battleship.

2) I didn't know I even had 174 Cats on Oahu!

3) A lot of damaged planes, a lot that will be fixed. Pretty low losses given what he invested in the airfields.

4) Animation detail showed air units from five fleet carriers (Akagi, Zui., Shok., Kaga, Soryu.) Next turn shows three large, undefined TFs which have remained near PH and moved slightly east. Where is the sixth carrier? I'm afraid either escorting a Mersing gambit to come, or going deep somewhere else.

5) The intense focus on air power suggests strongly there will be a second day's attacks. If so I will have what defenses I can muster, but I do not plan to sortie surface forces in strength. I expect to lose perhaps three more BBs if there is a second day.

Other Attacks

Strong air efforts against multiple targets resulting in the loss of three subs (two fleet, 1 S-boat), damage to several others at Manila, plus about 20 merchants sunk or aflame at HK, Manila, and Rangoon. HK took 8 points of damage to the repair yard. The merchants are a sting, but many were xAKLs which have less utility to the Allies since they can't be converted and can only service certain routes due to range. Loss of the subs hurts the most.

Sweeps in several places. In general I had CAP up, hampered by the Turn 1 surprise rules, but I broke wrong by servicing the second altitude band rather than going high and meeting the Zeros. My P-40 losses were stiff. But so were his Nell losses.





LCU Landings:

Playing with non-historical I expected an avalanche of amphibious operations. Instead there were light landings at Kota Bharu (TF of only one xAK with heavy escort, including the sunk CL), normal landings at Miri and Brunei, and a small effort at Legsapi. That's it. I see two large gaggles of TFs at the two Japanese bases north of Kota Bharu, but I don't know their composition. It's possible Mike decided to unload in safer waters and without disruption given he doesn't know how wild I would be with Force Z (which is headed to Shangri-La as I type this), but coming from the AI it's strange there was no Batan Island, no large PI forces spotted underway, no attempt at Davao. I simply don't know where many of the magic first turn TFs went. Nor do I know where his BBs are, or that other fleet carrier. Which worries me.

Misc.

The mini-KB was sighted and dispatched Boise with 11 torps launched, five hits. The only bright side is that is a lot of its inventory. The Kates sortied on Boise with no escort; a bit cheeky if you ask me. Next game I will not leave her on her scenario course and only increase speed. I will send her to mess up Miri and then on to Singers or Palembang. RIP Robo-cruiser.

I began flailing about in China, but I will say here for the first, but not last, time that China flumoxes me. I have never had a grip on it. There was one stiff battle in China at Pengpu at 114:1 odds. Not good.

Strategic Musings:

1) Given no HRs I expect a strong effort in China including a swift campaign to take supply centers in the north, and a concerted effort to cut the Burma Road ASAP. Mike asked pre-turn about para rules, so I expected drops in Burma, which did not happen, or I did not see them. It's possible he plans to sticker Singers and hold while some or all of the force I see unloading north of Kota B. goes north at a dead run for Rangoon. I plan to supply Rangoon as soon as possible, probably from Madras, but I don't know how long the Burma Road will be open.

2) The next 2-3 turns will give me a lot of data on where his main effort will go in December. I have a hunch it will not be the PI, and only minimally Malaysia. I expect him to take Miri and Brunei and then thrust for Palembang. I have ideas for Palembang, but if he wants it I may let him have it while I can still strat bomb a little from Singers.

3) I'm thinking he may try a "deep, then back" strategy of taking his perimeter and then backfiling standard phase one objectives. Scen 2 gives him a lot more time ot be in good petroleum shape. I don't plan to try to defend Balikpapan or Tarakan; they really are indefensible, while Palembang and Soerbaja can extract some blood. With all of the main Borneo POL he can suppliment HI fuel and last well into 1943 even if Palembang is unobtainable, or I succeed in wrecking it.

4) But where might he go deep? In past games he has discussed or toyed with Hawaii. I almost wish he would try there. I think I could deal better with Hawaii than, say, Oz. I feel more comfotable with naval sides of the game than land combat minutae.

5) I plan to try to have the self-discipline to:

a) see a VP is a VP is a VP. They're all equal whether lost from a ship, plane, or infantry unit. I'll try not to serve any up.

b) don't fight in the air just to fight in the air. If he wants to sweep at 10:1 odds, don't go up. Leave and fight another day.

c) don't risk ships unless there is a return ratio

d) hold engineers back in CONUS until all bases are maxed out on their VP multipliers. There's no sense having dozens of units squatting on Oahu until they're needed

e) defend Oz before I worry about PM or the southern tier. If he wants to play at Suva I'll let him. East from CT is my main logistic route.

f) to that, defend Perth. I have a sick feeling I may see several divisions landing there in those 3-4 days and there's little I can do about it in the short run.

I don't know if this report format works for me, but for the first turn I wanted to add more detail.

Thus begineth the war.

[obvert]

You've already done well in the air with the almost 40 Nells he lost. That's a LOT of very good pilots learning to swim in Manila Bay.

If he does try deep, you can hurt him if you're willing to risk a bunch of CA/CL in the area around Palembang. Could be worth it if you can get to a convoy with troops.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

You've already done well in the air with the almost 40 Nells he lost. That's a LOT of very good pilots learning to swim in Manila Bay.

If he does try deep, you can hurt him if you're willing to risk a bunch of CA/CL in the area around Palembang. Could be worth it if you can get to a convoy with troops.

I've sent some CLs toward Palembang, but the crux is Force Z and I have to think on that. I can better afford to lose Palembang than Perth.

[DOCUP]

Not a bad Dec 7th.  Nice job taking out 37 Nells and 15 Zeros.   Air transport helps alot in the DEI area.  You will be able to move alot of troops around on the cheap. Try and get the transports from China down into DEI.   I would say pick your battles, you know the areas he will come for sit your ships and AC back train and wait till he makes his move.  Try and keep some of your CAs/CLs around for later in the game.  I lost way to many early in my game.
 
PI invasions usually happen on day 2 and beyond.  If he goes deep and decides to back fill, try and catch him in an ambush.  Koniu did this on me in the PI.  He left open Davo and Clark Field, as I was pushed back.  I was able to let him bomb my troops without escorts then one day I snuck in some fighters and destroyed his bombers. 
 
Some one needs to make a beer run.  The fridge is almost empty.  Gook Luck. 

[jeffk3510]

Looking forward to following your AAR. I have always enjoyed everything you have to say, and I have learned a lot from you.

Good luck and have fun.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

Some one needs to make a beer run.  The fridge is almost empty.  Gook Luck. 

Who let that Italian penguin in here?![:'(]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

Looking forward to following your AAR. I have always enjoyed everything you have to say, and I have learned a lot from you.

Good luck and have fun.

You should learn a lot from this too, but maybe not in a good way. [:'(]

[Gridley380]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


d) hold engineers back in CONUS until all bases are maxed out on their VP multipliers.

Admission of ignorance: I have no idea what you're talking about here. Would you be so kind as to elaborate or point me to the part of the manual that I apparently forgot?

I'll be very interested to see how this AAR goes, especially with no HRs!

"Presto!"

"RRRRAAAAARRRRR!"

"Gee, don't know my own strength!"

[LoBaron]

How could I miss this AAR?!

I expect great deeds in here!
And well executed amphibious landings!

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


d) hold engineers back in CONUS until all bases are maxed out on their VP multipliers.

Admission of ignorance: I have no idea what you're talking about here. Would you be so kind as to elaborate or point me to the part of the manual that I apparently forgot?

I'll be very interested to see how this AAR goes, especially with no HRs!

"Presto!"

"RRRRAAAAARRRRR!"

"Gee, don't know my own strength!"

I think the Moose is discussing upgrading the ports and airfields and the multiplier is Base VP's = base multiple * [2x airfield + port level]. Thus the strategy of upgrading of WC bases before sending the engineers to sit at P.H. before deploying further. In terms of looking at autovictory every single point is worth x4 because the IJ need to earn x4 points for autovictory. If the situation is close .. those WC base VP'scould be a big plus for staving off Autovictory.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

How could I miss this AAR?!

I expect great deeds in here!
And well executed amphibious landings!

Excellent picture. Despite their reputation as pretty stupid, and the reality that they're pretty nearsighted, moose are nasty animals that will kill you if you give them a chance. I've seen them in the wild, in Alaska, and they are big and they know there are few things in their world they need to fear. You do not want to get between a mama and her calf.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


d) hold engineers back in CONUS until all bases are maxed out on their VP multipliers.

Admission of ignorance: I have no idea what you're talking about here. Would you be so kind as to elaborate or point me to the part of the manual that I apparently forgot?

I'll be very interested to see how this AAR goes, especially with no HRs!

"Presto!"

"RRRRAAAAARRRRR!"

"Gee, don't know my own strength!"

I think the Moose is discussing upgrading the ports and airfields and the multiplier is Base VP's = base multiple * [2x airfield + port level]. Thus the strategy of upgrading of WC bases before sending the engineers to sit at P.H. before deploying further. In terms of looking at autovictory every single point is worth x4 because the IJ need to earn x4 points for autovictory. If the situation is close .. those WC base VP'scould be a big plus for staving off Autovictory.

Exactly right. Time is currency in a strong auto-vic game. "You got time to lean you got time to clean. Or build an airbase."

Playing the AI I always had lots of units stacked at PH waiting for a job. On the second turn, my first "real" one" which I just sent to Mike, I spent hours juggling anything with engineers, splitting restricted divisions, sending men to holes-in-the-wall in CONUS to get digging. Every VP I earn in Idaho is one I don't have to earn with blood.

[Bullwinkle58]

A few musings after just completing my first "no surprise" turn, December 8th, in no particular order

1) Lots more clicking than I'm used to.

2) Set up Local minesweepers for the first time ever.

3) The new parent-child asterick mark in the LCU list in the beta is a godsend for finding all the pieces and parts and getting them moving toward combining. Especially useful in Oz and Malaysia.

4) I set up as many surface TFs at places I expect to get hit on Day 2 as I could. PH has wounded BBs as TF cores (some have 40 points of damage in one area, and damage in more than one area) matched with at least one CA and multiple DDs as flak castles. I figured if I put the BBs pierside they're going to bleed and for nothing, so they might as well go down swinging. I tried to better stack my CAP than on turn 1, having at least one top-cover P-40 unit, even where the maneuver band sucks.

5) Still don't know if there will be a Mersing gambit; did what I could with mines and moving one extra infantry unit forward.

6) I began moves which could turn into a Fortress Palembang if he gives me time. I divided Sumatra into a north zone and a south, north on Sabang, south on Palembang, with a medium stiff force to hold Oosthaven open due to P's river port. Began bug-out of all base forces and combat units to those three sites, while digging furiously in top-2.

7. Java I divided E/W on Soerbaja and Batavia. with a strong force in the mountains east of Batavia. Left base forces at the two landing hexes SE of Soerbaja, but they'll only buy a day. All air power to the two bastions with torpedo HQs. Soerbaja is stockpiling supplies, and digging forts rather than worrying about air bases and ports. I won't hold either base on Java; no reason to give him multipliers.

8. The PI I consolidated down south to three bases, Davao the weakest. Moved what I could to Cebu this turn--not much. Will bug the transports out after. I aim to save ships at the expense of the PI army. Up north I plan to make a moderate stand at Manila and get what supply out I can. Pulled everything north back to Clark except a small force at Iba, and a bait-force at Lingayan. I sent five subs with mines to Lingayan, about 100 mines. Hope to slow him there. Digging at Clark with about 50% of my forces, including all tanks. Bataan on strong supply spinner pull-in and stockpile. Sent two HQs and some of the weaker stuff from Manila. Bulk of CAP is over Clark.

9. Sortied all ships in at-risk ports. Took a page from an old Canoerebel game and sent some east right up the middle for Pearl and Dutch Harbor. Split rest about equally on Singers/Darwin/Soerbaja/Brisbane routes. Some might get through. Sent the HK PTs to Manila; will accumulate two hexes of out of fuel damage, but I've always had luck with PTs in the PI. Ships that were not at risk but numerous I mostly sent toward CT. I will run high-speed off-map supply trains from EC to CT for at least one cycle and see where I am.

10. This plan means Perth must stay open. To that I sent a strong Aussie infantry unit there by rail, and ordered satellite units in the west to flow there. Let the beginning unit at Kalgoorie stay put on TOE upgrade. RockyRoo has long preached that a very good way into Oz is from Albany north to Kalgoorie rather than straight in at Perth. I'm also gathering what air power I can spare to Perth--storng patrols--and Force Z will be on call in two days. It worries me that I don't know where most of the magic TFs went.

11. Returning to CONUS, I had to break one way or the other with US air, and I rolled the dice and sent many units, including all my good 2E bombers, toward CT on this turn. I don't know what the situaiton will be in a month, but I think they're better used there than trying to piece them into an east-Pac without strong basing. The CT route lets me get them most of the way to the war zone comletely safe. When they need to come on map to Colombo or maybe northern Sumatra I need to have escorts waiting at CT, including, possibly, Saratogo. I want to wait at least two more turns before I commit a CV to the IO. If I do it'll go off-map too.

12. Returning to Malaysia, I'm doing a modified bug-out. Consolidating the two atomized Indian divisions at Malaca and Alor Star (if he lets me), with one componet infantry battalion taking one swing at the Japanese at Kota Bharu before leaving. My Day 1 intel says KB has only 2400 men ashore, which is probably wrong, but I'm going to risk one attack regardless. Once these two are reformed I plan to head to Singers most likely. I've abandoned Georgetown. Singers has extra mines, all the TBs with strong HQ support, and a good bit of the Dutch navy in TFs on flak duty until I can pull back two AA uinits from Jo. I'm risking a couple fo single large xAKs of fuel up from Palembang to keep the HI furnaces cranking out supply. Singers is stockpiling everything and digging furiiously.

13. In the north, I've sent the Tavoy and the southern hex unit (don't recall name) toward Moulein. We'll see what happens there. Also sent strong supply convoys toward Rangoon. I expect he'll mess with me In China and I want to shove what I can up the Road while it's open. Could be one turn if he gets his paras in shape. I'm going to try a medium stiff stand at Pegu/Rangoon. I've never done this against a human of course, but I may be able to make him pay for the port. I have no trouble sending Dutch subs in there to die if necessary.

14. Flushed surviving subs from Manila on pretty standard zones, up around the invasion beaches. Sent a few to Cam Rahn Bay, Pescadores, and Okinawa to see if they can snipe. The Japanese ASW in December is very, very weak. The Dutch sub whch sank the CL on Turn One got massively worked over inside the harbor at KB and only had 52 float damge. It will easily make SIngers. I think that's about three days' yard time.

15. Almost forgot NG. Started the small units north of the mountains walking home to PM. Used all my patrol planes to start pulling what I could out of Rabaul. Depends on how much time I get. Don't plan to send non-organic reinforcments to PM from Oz. Discussed with Rocky, and he made a good case that my AI habits in this area were more risk than reward. PM will do the best it can. If I can get fighters across in time they might get a small serving to keep Lae honest.

16. The rest was about twelve hours of patrol zones, supply spinning. pilot training, Chinese guys running hither and yon (I'm going to be killed in China, I can already feel it), moving stuff south in the DEI with Dutch patrol planes, and trying to set up soime little interesting traps with night bombing and such. Don't have a lot in the toolbox yet of course.

We'll see what the butcher's bill is in a second PH stike. He might be surprised I left my BBs undocked, locked, and cocked. If he stays for day three he'll be out of torps pretty much, and I may go hunting. Two is rough; three days is showing off.[:)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I'm going to be killed in China, I can already feel it.

Yes. Expect the entirety of the Manchurian infantry garrison in excess of 8,000 (some 3,000 AV IIRC) to be coming your way shortly. Unfortunately, they also get to bring all of their artillery and other support (base) forces and HQ units that are otherwise idle in Manchuria.

So, in addition to the usual suspects in China, I'd expect another 8-9 division equivalents, armor, artillery and base forces to support. Oh-since he doesn't have to keep planes there for exclusive training, you can expect to see these 'training' on your troops in China too.

A powerful 'give' to the Japanese effort in China by a no-PP 'buy' HR.

Good luck!

[Chickenboy]

Oops-almost forgot:

There's some really nice IRs in Korea too. Added to the OOB avalanche coming into China, consider that another 1.5 Division equivalents with support. I don't have the OOB in front of me, but that's my recollection.

[JocMeister]

Yepp, You are going to get steamrolled in China. Absolutely zero chance of you to survive there. But since this is a no HR game I suggest you start moving most of them towards India right away! Try to delay him wherever you can but get most of them moving. Make sure you do not under any circumstances let the Chinese get cut off from Burma/India. You need to keep the retreat open! Those Chinese will turns into something like 25K AV eventually. Thats nice to have [:)]