Razing the Reich

[Michael T]

To be perfectly honest if I had known he was going to pull this kind of stunt I would not have entered in to the game. Its absurd. I am in half a mind to simply call it off. Its bloody boring and not my idea of fun at all. I am chomping at the bit to get my chance as Axis against him to tear his sorry arse apart. I just have to be patient and sit on my hands for 50 turns or so. Frustrating.

[sillyflower]

I can't imagine that it was anything other than a reaction to your successes.

Not that the explanation makes it less boring/silly for you.

[Flaviusx]

Tullius, that's only true if the mass of the Red Army doesn't chase him all the way to the border and offers itself up in large digestible chunks to the Wehrmacht. What Pelton wants and needs is a rope a dope.

The trick here is to follow up that retreat with just enough stuff to encourage it, tear up all the rail lines, but leave the main line of resistance well behind a buffer zone of destroyed rail lines, so the spring and early summer Axis counteroffensive is wasted on empty space and repair, while the Red Army sits tight and digs in behind good terrain. (I like the Dnepr line here for the MLR.) But if the the pursuit force is too weak, then the Germans might stop running. So it's a tricky balancing act, and some bait may be required, with the expectation that said bait is potentially expendable.

Michael, the experience you're getting here in how to build Red Army 2.0 unmolested will stand you in good stead for future and more conventional games. Most players have to learn how to do it under far less favorable conditions and mostly get it wrong the first time around. You'll have a perfect blueprint in hand and can avoid those errors. So it's not a complete waste.

I also want you to show how wrong headed this entire Polish runaway strategy is and discourage anybody else from doing it in the future. Think of it as a public service anouncement to the PBEM community.

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

To be perfectly honest if I had known he was going to pull this kind of stunt I would not have entered in to the game. Its absurd. I am in half a mind to simply call it off.

If he's lost this game (and yes, he has, no matter what), it's not because of this run-run-run-for-your-lives thing. He's done a horrible summer campaign. And of course you've done an excellent campaign.

It was clear (to him) that you did not care about the South. And yet in the two other main areas he spared one: the Center... Leningrad was his only target, and he did not even use the shortest, direct approach (and almost nothing can stop the German infantry + engineers + artillery + air support when sort of concentrated), but a long route via really tough hexes (south of the lake Ilmen). And to add insult to injury, you correctly detected his plan and thus concentrated your forces there.

He's done a really gross strategic mistake. But again, his opponent (aka you) has to be there to exploit it. And you skillfully were there! [:)]

He simply does not know what to do. Well, one thing he knows: he does not want to be destroyed during the winter. And given that Pelton is somewhat an extremist... to Poland, schnell schnell!! [:D]

[Michael T]

Flavius your explanation of the situation and the reaction proposed is exactly what I intend. I have come to the conclusion I can do nothing in 1942 other than defend. So I will defend as far forward as safe to do so. Meanwhile I pursue but I have a leash, my ever diminishing truck pool. So this limits the number of pursuers anyhow. But he might also resign at the end of 42 when he realizes the futility of it all.

[Ketza]

I had a player sort of do the same thing but I had destroyed a whole bunch of his army first due to him being out of position in the mud.

It took until the late summer of 42 to get the logistics sorted out. I did as mentioned here and tore up rail tracks and converted terrain with a scouting army. The game sort of fizzled around Nov 42 but I had a huge Soviet army just getting a massive winter offensive underway that was fun to build.

[Balou]

Michael,
what can one expect in sov OOB by mid or end 42 whithout serious enemy contact/fighting ? Are sov numbers more important than their exp/mor?

[Farfarer61]

Pelton likely tried a win everywhere and won not everyhwere. I submit he is experimenting. If he or she made great strides, a standard blizzard fallback would be worth it. But now that it is pooched, why not a withdrawal, save 1,000,000 casualties, and attack the 8 million man Ant Army in 1942 ? A poster, I think he was Flavius said "1941 is foreplay".

[Flaviusx]

Farfarer, because time and space, properly deployed, will defeat the rope a dope. You also were able to unleash the Finns and open up the entire northern flank; that's not going to happen here.

All Micheal need do is stall and deploy time and space until Red Army 2.0 comes online, and then he starts to push west for real, and will do so from a position far in advance from where the Soviets were historically, with his replacement pools filled to the brim.

If the Soviet player knows his business, the runaway will not only fail, but lead to an early end to the war, possibly a year or more in advance. You can't just run and give the Red Army a pass. It must be pressured.

[Michael T]

Michael,
what can one expect in sov OOB by mid or end 42 whithout serious enemy contact/fighting ? Are sov numbers more important than their exp/mor?

I think he intends to play 1942 like 1941 again, so there should be some hard fighting. But I expect to have around 8 million men by the start of the summer of 1942, maybe more. I will have 6.5 million by the time the blizzard starts. My Arm points are still above 200K.

I can't afford to build a bunch of INF Corp in 1942, they cost too much. So my offensive capabilities are very limited.

[hfarrish]

ORIGINAL: Farfarer

Pelton likely tried a win everywhere and won not everyhwere. I submit he is experimenting. If he or she made great strides, a standard blizzard fallback would be worth it. But now that it is pooched, why not a withdrawal, save 1,000,000 casualties, and attack the 8 million man Ant Army in 1942 ? A poster, I think he was Flavius said "1941 is foreplay".

I think Pelton just tried a strategy that had been working near Leningrad, but unfortunately for him all those campaigns were public and MT was obviously very well prepared for the exact same thing. Even the '41 Red Army can stop the Germans if they know exactly what they are going to do in advance (and that doesn't take away from MT's defense, which was quite well executed).

[Fishbed]

Ho my, from what we can read in his topic you probably exchanged harsh words I suppose...
But well, even though the top notch 4 million army thing is true, I guess a 1941 remake in 1942 will certainly have to take into account the fact you're gonna pop up new 4 level Stalin lines everywhere if you're given the opportunity. I like how he says that everything in 1941 is about population centers and killing units, and that still he didn't manage to do either. Don't quit, just try to prove him wrong.

[KamilS]

For me only doubtful thing about this game is scale of Soviet victory. Major or minor, that is the question.


Mounting assaults against Wehrmacht undiminished by winter, well entrenched and managed by cautious player (Pelton will play not to lose) will be extremely hard, so gaining enough momentum early enough might require taunting him into costly offensive actions. Even sacrificing poor units can be good tool.

Convincing Pelton, that offensive is necessary and beneficial could separate minor and major Soviet victory in this game.


I am pretty sure Michael knows better what to do, I just try to boost my ego by giving smartly looking advices. It vital for me after boost it after depressing time spent making finishing touches of the turn in game vs Saper. [:)] ... just kidding ...

[Michael T]

There have been no harsh words. I am just very frustrated with his attitude now that his 1941 campaign has failed so miserably. This is not why I play. I leave experiments to AI gaming. Not waste other gamers time and effort. We all know (except Pelton) what the end result will be. Maybe against some newbie this might work. But this is a waste of probably 6 months or more of my game time. I told him I would accept a resignation and then we could switch sides. But he is adament about continuing on. So I just have to play on knowing full well this is a forgone conclusion. The other thing is I totally disagree with his going on about how stuffed the Germans are now since muling got nerfed. Sure I profess the game is in the Sov's favour but not to this extent he is going on about. So rather than wasting my time playing out this I would rather be slicing him up as the Axis player and disproving his theroy on how hopeless the Axis cause is now.

[glvaca]

Well, don't forget our game [:)]
I won't run to Poland, I promise!
Seriously tough, whether or not this is a fun strategy for you is in my opinion not a valid reason for blaming Pelton. In a sense he's just doing what you have done during the summer: retreat where you could not hold.

So the real point in this discussion, for me, is the imbalance of the Blizzard when a Soviet player has done really well during the summer of 1941. Please consider Peltons options:
1. stand and fight. Result would have been a massacre.
2. Slowly retreat during Blizzard. Loss of approx. 1 million men through attrition and 12 point of morale for the mass of infantry in the open.
3. Having achieved nothing of his objectives, retreat to Poland and reset. Stake all on conserving strength and morale and the ability to counter attack in 1942 & perhaps 1943.

With option 3, even if he does not achieve miracles, his army at least will remain strong for the defensive battles still to be fought. Whether he'll be able to ride it out till 1945 is anyones guess at this point.

As to the Blizzard effects. I don't mind the casualties, it's the morale loss that is the real problem. Sure, you'll be able to recover some IF you survive the blizzard in good enough shape to actually do a lot of counter attacks. And that is the additional problem, the spiral effect, once the German player suffers substantial losses during the Blizzard, he will most likely be in a poor state to counter attack in March.

So the morale loss of being in the open and through combat/retreats really is the cause of the shift in German possibilities and options. It's no surprise, as it is fully intended by the designers to be so. Perhaps it used to work when the Russians were weaker. But with the changes since the last patches, it just might be too much of a shift & frankly, given the choices open to Pelton, can you blame him for doing the only thing open to him to negate the Blizzazrds morale effects?

Take the morale loss out of the equation, and I guarentee no German will run, even with the attritional losses suffered, and you will have a very hard fought battle.

[Michael T]

Well I am a little surprised that prior to the muling nerf all I heard was how bad things were for the Russians. Now the muling is gone all I am hearing is how bad things are for Germany. If you do enough damage to the Russians in 1941 you can fight your way through the blizzard in some areas and fall back in others. That is what I will do against Pelton is the return game.

The resumption of our game Glenn is going to be some time of I am afraid. FWIW if this scheme by Pelton were to work then the game (unless I screwed up) is out of wack completely. I trust it is not and I will roll him handsomely by the end of 1944.

[glvaca]

Well, I never mulled so I'm not even considering that in my reasoning.
What hurt more than anything is the changes in the combat engine. It has become so much more unpredictable than before. And this is what basically makes it much more difficult to advance as the German.
And by all measures, you are obviously a top notch player. You know how to defend, where to defend and when to defend.

So consider this:
1. much harder to attack, meaning less attacks per turn (as you need higher odds than before).
2. Hasties against all but very weak units is simple a crap shoot more likely than not to result in stupid helds and morale loss.
3. Supply/fuel is reduced, meaning less movement for the panzers, and as such less attacks etc...
4. No reason for the Russian to fight beyond the time needed to evac. industry. and short of Moscow & Leningrad.
5. Russian morale recovers to quickly in comparison to German morale.

Result:
1. Low overall Russian losses during summer.
2. Very strong army going into blizzard and high chance for the German to get a beating he will not be able to recover from.
3. Add to this the scripted morale loss which, if matched to the above scenario, is almost impossible to recover from even to let's say mid 70-ties for the infantry.
4. Germans run for Poland

IS the game out of wack? Difficult to say. But if a very experienced German player decides it's better in the long run to evac to Poland than fight it out in the blizzard, you could say somethings wrong. I'm sure we all agree, even if we disagree with his reasoning, that Pelton thinks he didn't stand a chance by fighting it out in the blizzard. And we know he might have the most expereince as the German beyond 42 of anyone here.

So for me it boils donw to this:
1. Does the 1941 game comes closer to what happened historically? Probably yes, it's much harder to capture Leningrad and Moscow. Certainly if the Soviet player doesn't do a forward defence.
2. HAve the Blizzard effects shifted to take this new reality into account? I don't think so.

So on the one hand you have a much harder time to get anywhere as the German, compounded by a much lower headcount if the Russian uses space and time to his advantage (like you do) to avoid pockets. But you still end up with the same harsh blizzard effects no matter what you do.

As I mentioned before, take the morale penalties out of the equation OR limit them in some way, and you'd take away the main motivation for running to Poland. For example, remove morale penalties when in fort level 2 or 3 or above. This has historical merrit. Army group North, well dugin before the winter didn't suffer nearly as much attrition (and morale loss in game terms) as is now the case.
As another example, remove morale penalties for units in any size town. This would also have historical merit as the Germans used these towns to form strong points and protection of the cold.
Keep the attrition rate, keep the combat morale loss and so on, just back-off on the scripted loss of 12 morale points and we'd have a much more intertesting game where even if suffering a bad blizzard, the German should still be able to keep enough morale while fighting to actually have a chance of a good 42 summer offensive.

As to the summer 41, perhaps some sudden death conditions should also apply to keep the Russian from running to quickly. Your point has always been that it is too easy for the Russian to run and as such avoid high losses. In effect, the game has underscored these reralities by reducing the replacement rate for the Soviets. Force the Russian to fight forward, and turn the replacement rate back up would seem the best of both worlds. But then, what may be balanced between experts may not yield the same results between nocives or average players. It remains a difficult balancing act.

I know that our game will be on hold for a while yet. I have only myself to blame. Still, IIRC, I was doing much better than Pelton territory wise. Closing in on Leningrad and getting ready for a big offensive on Mocow in a turn or 2. It's doubtful I would have been able to capture either, but that feels very right.

Anyway, my 2 cents.

[sillyflower]

Michael

I hope it helps to say that I did not get any impression of any exchange of harsh words from anything either of you has written.

Like Glavka I entirely see Pelton's logic - and I'm sure you do too. I'm sorry you won't find it much fun. I would like nothing more than a GC that went to late 44/early 45 but they seem virtually impossible to get. Apart from you I have only had 1 german opponent who did not surrender or disappear by the end of Jan '42 and that only lasted until September '42.

If/when I play Pelton I would have no objection to being on the position you are in now. Admittedly I no longer have babies/small children so I am not confined to a single game like you are for the forseeable future

Maybe I will have to find a german to play GC 42

[Flaviusx]

I see no advantage to resetting in 1942 with a Red Army at 8 million plus, and overflowing replacement pools. The German saves 1 million casualties...and so what? He has to kill several million more Russians, and start over again from scratch. This is utterly false economy.

[sillyflower]

Flavius

With the greatest respect, I think you may be missing the point. The aim is not to win by killing millions more Russians in offensives but to have a German army that will survive because it will have a million more men and higher morale, whilst the Russians have lower morale.

Whether it works we shall see as/if this game progesses.