Razing the Reich

[Flaviusx]

I see the point, and I say it is false economy, because it doesn't matter how good the shape of the Wehrmacht is if it has to start over from scratch against a far larger Red Army with plenty of territory to give up. It is the relative state of the two armies that matters, not the absolute state of a single one.

Give me a free hand in 1942 an I will win handily, as I expect Michael to. There's no pressure here on the Soviets at all. They can do anything they want, stall with all the territory being handed over freely, and engage this refreshed Wehrmacht only minimally while it has to retrace its steps and rebuild all the rail lines. Having done so, it will then face the bulk of the Red Army intact, well dug in, and in terrain features of its own selection, back by massive reserves and pools.

If you don't put the Red Army in a state of crisis and pressure in 42, it need only count down the clock until the end of the year and upgrade itself to version 2.0. Once that happens, the Wehrmacht is toast. No matter how strong it is, 150 rifle corps backed up by a massive artillery park will batter through it. The transition to Big Red will happen smoothly and without delays and at a position well ahead of where it was going into 1943 with a far more favorable replacement situation.

[glvaca]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I see the point, and I say it is false economy, because it doesn't matter how good the shape of the Wehrmacht is if it has to start over from scratch against a far larger Red Army with plenty of territory to give up. It is the relative state of the two armies that matters, not the absolute state of a single one.

Give me a free hand in 1942 an I will win handily, as I expect Michael to. There's no pressure here on the Soviets at all. They can do anything they want, stall with all the territory being handed over freely, and engage this refreshed Wehrmacht only minimally while it has to retrace its steps and rebuild all the rail lines. Having done so, it will then face the bulk of the Red Army intact, well dug in, and in terrain features of its own selection, back by massive reserves and pools.

If you don't put the Red Army in a state of crisis and pressure in 42, it need only count down the clock until the end of the year and upgrade itself to version 2.0. Once that happens, the Wehrmacht is toast. No matter how strong it is, 150 rifle corps backed up by a massive artillery park will batter through it. The transition to Big Red will happen smoothly and without delays and at a position well ahead of where it was going into 1943 with a far more favorable replacement situation.

You know Flav., you may be right. OR be proven right. But with some odd 200+ turns to go, and an almost infinite amount of variables along the way, it seems to me that some caution in predicting its outcome is in order. Granted, I am but a simple soul and posses no "out of this Earth" capabilities. [;)]

So I'll stick to: it remains to be played and seen. I'm certainly interested to see the result!

[Flaviusx]

Oh, I absolutely want to see this thing fought out. Michael is being unduly impatient and not appreciating the opportunity he has to build a model Red Army. He will never get a better one than this. He's losing his cherry in the best possible way. Most players building their late war Red Army for the first time have to do it under far worse circumstances.

If he can prove, as I expect him to, that this runaway strategy is utterly fallacious, then nobody else will be inclined to repeat it. I'm cheering him on.

[Speedysteve]

Me too as Pelton seems to think its a great idea and it's a master plan. I don't see it that way at all....

[Zonso]

This game is over. I don't see what there is to see in having it played out. In fact I find it hugely ironic the very same people expressing that desire also advocated surrender in the Speedy/Sapper match as it was 'over' in their view on Turn 8!!!

Maybe also we can finally put to rest the 'Lvov pocket imbalancing the game' boogeyman as well.

Michael T simply outplayed Pelton here. Congratulations.

[Flaviusx]

Zonso, I have told Pelton directly in his topic that he is flatly wrong and is making a serious mistake. He is the reason this game is continuing, and nobody else. But that being the case, yes, I'm content to see this proposition of his tested to destruction.

None of this has anything to do with the Lvov pocket, which some of us will never accept because it is ridiculous on its own terms, regardless of game balance.

[Balou]

I really do hope Pelton won't find any reasons/excuses/"bugs"/nerfs etc that gives him a reason to stop the whole thing.

[Farfarer61]

As for playing on or not, I direct the readers to the wild swings in the game I recently surrendered to M60. I learned a lot about Axis mobile defence. Also, it was an experiment completely, and fun, so I dont think Michael should be quite so indignant.
I am hoping some new insights come of this.
Last time I looked we are all playing Beta versions - that goes for the strategy too

[HITMAN202]

Look at the "discoveries" made in this game for both sides the last 6 months of AAR's. I've discovered one "trick" that I'm sure Pelton will use that will surprise Michael T. No doubt Michael T. has also some previously undisclosed tricks for the Soviet's to employ . But for those who think Pelton is already beaten (Michael T. clearly won the opening), wait and see the magic he weaves. You can get burned by what you think is merely "hot air."

[timmyab]

I think Pelton's cooked his goose here.You have to hurt the SU in 41 just to get an even game.If you can't do it in 41 what chance 42.He's going to be facing a massive army well dug in to hand picked defensive positions plus depth.Even if by some miracle he manages to plow through these formidable defenses the SU will have plenty of room to pull back to absorb the attack.Against a newb it might work, in this game no chance.

[Fishbed]

You're underrating Pelton's sense of strategy here Timmy. Doing so would be reckless. I am pretty sure he's mainly just gonna turtle and counter, he has no "territory" expectations for 1942 (no hope for Leningrad, Moscow or the likes) and his first goal will be to shatter the tip of MT's sword. Offensives will just made in such ways that he will try to eat and digest giant localized chunks of the Red Army while building Siegfried lines every 20km or so for the next three years. He knows that 1942 is a good moment for that: MT may put as many units in a single hex as he wants, he will still end up having armies or half a front being surrounded by a resolute localized pincer movement, and form unbreakable pockets. Whatever carpet MT puts forward, it's gonna be lost the moment Pelton resolutely bites it off, and considering the probable thickness of the front, the Germans doing a pincer just 5 hex behind the frontline could be enough to trap hundred of thousands of men. And knowing how well preserved the Wehrmacht will be, I guess he can probably do that well into 1943, as long as he prevents a good build up of Red Army 2.0. I just hope MT won't answer his provocations and keep most of his armies well behind the front behind several lightly held lines, waiting for the railways to connect, and forcing Pelton to penetrate deeply if he really wants to harm the reserves that may kick his ass into 1944.

[janh]

This is truly a very, very weired game. I can understand Michael's frustration to some degree there, but I say: hang in. With this game and its sometimes dramatic swings, I am not quite sure which "goose is cooked" yet.

Certainly Michael has outplayed Pelton now once, partly due to him being dead set on a strategy that offered pretty much all advantages to MT. Best terrain for the defender, a nice limited channel to clog with the lake ordering it, and MT reading the signs correctly and reacting early to it. It would have been a different story had Pelton feinted that, but now I think he got cold feed and realized to have some chance still, he must conserved his army at all costs. There is some sense in that, though I believe a typical blizzard withdrawal strategy as usual or a bit faster would have done better.

This way Michael not only can built and train his army unmolested and set up sequential fort lines that will cost Pelton at least some casualties and morale while growing Soviet morale thru helds, but Michael gets to play his one true big "ace", the card that the Russians had against all their enemies before and after Napoleon, twice: dealing ground for time and choosing the battles. On the other hand, even with a predicted 8M Army, it still suffers from ill morale and Wehrmacht, with preserved forces, can eat away at least small chunks. All Pelton might need to do now is to slow or pause SHC growth by that, keep morale up, and slug it out to the end. It may be well possible that even with a Red giant, but no guards/good morale, it may be a tough challenge to reach Berlin? This game has still some surprises, so do Pelton and Michael...

[timmyab]

ORIGINAL: Fishbed
I am pretty sure he's mainly just gonna turtle and counter, he has no "territory" expectations for 1942 (no hope for Leningrad, Moscow or the likes) and his first goal will be to shatter the tip of MT's sword. Offensives will just made in such ways that he will try to eat and digest giant localized chunks of the Red Army while building Siegfried lines every 20km or so for the next three years.

Sounds like he's going to bore his opponent into submission.What a depressing thought.
The really depressing part though is if it actually works.My experience with the 44 campaign is that it's a tough grind to break down the German army in 44 once it's front solidifies.

[Flaviusx]

What's reckless is what Pelton is doing. He may indeed bore Michael to death because Michael is an impatient sort, but short of that...

Janh, there is no German defense that cannot be cracked by sufficient applications of firepower. Pile on enough arty divisions and they will crack it. It's just a question of time. Pile on the maximum amount of rifle corps, set lots of stuff to reserve, pile on the maximum number of possible artillery divisions, fly in lots of shturmoviks, rinse and repeat. Do this in as many places as possible, preferably on a given stretch of the front to destroy the integrity of the fort line in that section. You will eventually get past the level 3 and 4 stuff and reach the level 2 forts and from there on things go south.

If you feel frisky you can add soak off attacks to this, but it shouldn't be necessary.

[mmarquo]

Once the Sovietrs start building infantry corps in 43' it becomes very difficult for the Axis. The Axis must dig a series of level 3 forts every several hexes all the way back to Berlin....

[Michael T]

You need not be concerned with my staying power for this. I am resolute in my determination to wipe Pelton's Reich from the map. I am just frustated with his attitude as it is so alien to mine. When I sit down to play a game on Russia from 1941 to 1945 as German I am aiming to conquer Russia in 41/42 and maybe 43. If I fail then I defend. To run away in September 1941 is totally nuts. From both the standpoint of why I play and from the point that if I felt that the only way for Germany to win or draw a game was to do this thing I would not enter in to it in the first place. And I do not think that. When I get my chance as Axis against Pelton I will prove otherwise.

Anyway no more complaining from me. I am spending this down time practising and testing theories for round 2 and 3 of this fight. He will get rolled. The hammer and sickle will be flying above Berlin in 1944.

[carlkay58]

Ah, but if you win in 1944, all we will hear is how the game is rigged to favor the Soviets! There does have to be a rematch with the two of you switching sides to determine who has the better strategy.

[Ketza]

Pelton seems to be playing this for what it is, a bunch of numbers vrs a bunch of numbers with no real regard for it being a historical simulation/game. I see his logic and I see yours.

What makes the whole thing so interesting is the stark contrast of the 2 differing opinions.

[Flaviusx]

But it doesn't make a lick of sense even purely as an exercise in numbers.

[Tophat1815]

This is something that will need the practical application of reality through playing it out.Even after its played I foresee a postmortem of denial waiting in the wings. Not a slam on Pelton just an observation of the personalities. And i am rooting for Pelton to pull off a minor miracle and shut you all up..........[:D]